HotelVitale wrote:To be clear I'm not arguing it's a good move for Giddey. I'm just saying that people a lot of times project their own money management style into these conversations, and also that the disastrous outcomes tend to stick way way more with sports fans (cuz schadenfreude? i don't know). Agents aren't perfect but I think we generally see them tending to win more than lose, right? And Giddey isn't Nerlens Noel so we don't have to treat him like he is.
brackdan70 wrote:jowglenn wrote: Just curious - who?
I am sure it has worked out for some…but no one comes to mind
Ben Gordon, Spencer Hawes, Charlie Villanueva all come to mind. Not many guys who have legit value end up taking the QO so not many examples for any outcome.
Charlie Vilanueva was never extended a QO. The Bucks just released him. Spencer Hawes signed a 2-year $13m deal after taking the $4m QO, not a huge jackpot by NBA standards. Ben Gordon is the only one out of the three you mentioned that successfully played the QO card.
I think it rarely makes sense to sign the QO, unless you know the team really NEEDS you for a playoff run and will feature you despite knowing you are good as gone, and even then you are risking losing a lot of value due to injury or a down year.
Personally, I think all of Giddey, Kuminga, Cam Thomas, and Grimes, are in a very weak position.
Cam Thomas made a mistake imo signing the QO because the Nets have zero incentive to play him over the rookies that they need to develop, and there is no chance he gets anywhere close to the contract he wants in unrestricted free agency next year.
For Giddey, it COULD work out, since the Bulls love to make runs at the play-in and they will need him for that, but again it's a gamble that he will not get injured or have a down year.
For Grimes it would be a huge gamble. The only way he gets a significant role on a QO contract is if Embiid and PG are healthy and playing well and Philly is actually contending, which is very unlikely. Otherwise, they will play Edgecomb, Oubre, and McCain ahead of him and he will not be a candidate for a big contract next summer.
For Kum Buckets, GS does need him, but unless he changes his style of play like they've been asking him to do the last few years and fit in better, Kerr will keep him glued to the bench.
In other words, if you're a RFA and no team in the league is trying to pry you away, that's a sign that your value isn't as high as you think it is and that you should probably take the money that's on the table.