RealGM

Assuming full health

Hopefully Victor. I say hopefully, because if he reaches his full potential, it should be him without a doubt. If he isn't, it means we didn't see what could have been.

If you assume full health, the answer is obvious.

Answer has to be Jokic.

If he's fully healthy for the next 15 years, which means he doesn't deteriorate much with age. Then yeah it's Joker the GOAT.

Probably gives us 15 30+ PER seasons across his career.

zimpy27 wrote:Answer has to be Jokic.

If he's fully healthy for the next 15 years, which means he doesn't deteriorate much with age. Then yeah it's Joker the GOAT.

Probably gives us 15 30+ PER seasons across his career.

Do you think this is enough alone without a specific amount of rings?

As luck would have it, my time machine is currently in the shop along with my Jaguar. As such, no definite comment. If I had to guess though, I would say Wemby.

mdonnelly1989 wrote:

zimpy27 wrote:Answer has to be Jokic.

If he's fully healthy for the next 15 years, which means he doesn't deteriorate much with age. Then yeah it's Joker the GOAT.

Probably gives us 15 30+ PER seasons across his career.

Do you think this is enough alone without a specific amount of rings?

Probably needs a few rings in that span. I think 3 is probably minimum

Magic is 6th all time for me. Jokić, Wemby doesn't have a chance to be in my top 6 in 15 years time. So the answer is Magic.

Steph Curry.

Goat shooter. Unanimous MVP. Most rings of his era. Countless clutch moments such as the bang bang game and the Olympics. Has arguably the longest highlight reel ever. Won 3/4 rings against another goat candidate.

Magic or Bird. Still.

Magic Johnson

I'll stick with Magic.

Johnny Tomala wrote:Magic is 6th all time for me. Jokić, Wemby doesn't have a chance to be in my top 6 in 15 years time. So the answer is Magic.

What a strange comment. Wemby has better tools than anyone in history, he's had an amazing start to his career, and he's the same age Magic was when he made all-NBA for the first time. How would he not have a chance to pass Magic in 15 years? You know Magic only played 12 seasons, right?

I'd look at it like this. Right now, Hakeem's the best of these players. I'd say there's a 40-45% chance that Jokic passes him. Wemby probably has like a 30-35% chance of passing him, and let's give the rest of the active field 7% combined. So just in terms of who passes Hakeem, these are the possibilities:

1%: Jokic, Wemby, and another player all pass Hakeem
36%: No one passes Hakeem
27%: Only Jokic passes him
17%: Only Wemby passes him
3%: Only another player passes him
14%: Wemby and Jokic pass him
2%: Jokic and another player pass him
1%: Wemby and another player pass him

I do think Wemby's more likely to be the one to be higher on the list if he and Jokic both pass Hakeem though. So I'd give him 10% of the equity for when multiple players pass Hakeem and I'd only give Jokic 6% of that. That leads to the following breakdown:

Hakeem 36%
Jokic 33%
Wemby 27%
Other 4%

Results actually came out significantly different than I would have thought before I started coming up with numbers for individual probabilities. My instinct was Wemby which is what I voted for, but I actually only have him 3rd behind Hakeem and Jokic.

If Curry gets a another ring and FMVP before he retires he is ahead of Magic. There is almost no case for Jokic to surpass Curry without 2 more rings and I don’t think Jokic gets 2 more rings and even with 2 more rings it’s fringe and really it would take 3

it depends how much hardware matters in 2040 for these "All time" lists. If we assume the same standards are being applied its impossible to predict.

But if we assume full health and there is not another wemby in the cooker somewhere, wemby should probably win like 10 DPOYs. thats some serious hardware by itself.

If Wemby stays healthy he can be the best to ever do it.

Wemby

Wow

Wemby clears even Jokic!

We cannot be so prisoners of the moment lol

I am a HUGE Jokic fan. I would love to see him win another ring and the 4th MVP. But I can see this approaches a "best case scenario".

And he's WAY ahead of Curry in the poll, who -besides being MF Curry and changing the whole game- has 4 chips, a FMVP (and no one would bat an eye if there were 2) and 2 MVPs.
And led the best team in history.
And has the record for most 3s that will stand for long.
And is the best 3pt shooter ever, in the 3s era.