Has Shai passed Luka? If so, when? (impact as a player + all-time)

[FrodoBaggins]

I'm sure this thread has previously been made, but there was a Reddit post about it today, and it got me thinking. Has Shai passed Luka? If so, when? I mean it, both as a current player (goodness/impact on the game) but also all-time in a legacy sense. It's an interesting player comparison because Luka burst onto the scene while Shai took a few years to develop. Two prospects from the same draft, an early bloomer who hasn't really improved all that much since 2019-20, and a late bloomer with consistent and steady progress over a number of years.

Luka may have gotten to 95%+ of what he is now by year 2, but Shai's incremental approach has led him to arguably greater heights. I'm thinking about this with Cooper Flagg in mind.

Shai took a step up starting in 2022-23. He arguably outplayed Luka (injured?) in the 2023-24 WCSF series. He won an MVP, FMVP, and NBA Championship in 2024-25. Seems like if he did pass him as a player, it might have been 2024. For resume/legacy/all-time ranking, after 2025 with the accolades.

[tsherkin]

It's certainly an interesting discussion. Luka posts big box score numbers (especially scoring volume), and his impact indicators are pretty awesome as well. His 2023 and 2024 O-EPM numbers were pretty intense (top 3 both years, first in 2024). But Shai is on an incredible run and his 2025 season was remarkable.

So with whomever you side, I think there has to be some acknowledgement that it's a worthy discussion.

[OriAr]

Yes and I don't think it's particularly close at the moment.

[1993Playoffs]

Definitely. Staring In 2024 I think Shai was better

[zero rings]

Shai passed Luka like 3 years ago.

He is simply a more consistent performer on both ends. And when Luka’s 3 ball abandons him, he can be a downright liability. You can’t say that about Shai, ever.

[Bulliever2020]

He has definitely passed him in the most important stat, ring count

[Deathray]

Put Luka on the Thunder and see what happens.

[Mephariel]

Put Luka on the Thunder and see what happens.

What happens? Luka is great on offense, but so is Shai. Defensively and chemistry wise, they take a hit.

[LarsV8]

Yes, last year.

[Lalouie]

the first two years with shai, okc had 22wins and 24wins

,,,,,DOWN FROM 49,44,48,47, and 55 the previous 5ive years

the core of what you see now came came from the draft IN SHAI'S THIRD AND FOURTH YEAR, and okc bumped up to 40wins again

so the answer is a resounding "LUKA"

[CloudWalker]

I'm sure this thread has previously been made, but there was a Reddit post about it today, and it got me thinking. Has Shai passed Luka? If so, when? I mean it, both as a current player (goodness/impact on the game) but also all-time in a legacy sense. It's an interesting player comparison because Luka burst onto the scene while Shai took a few years to develop. Two prospects from the same draft, an early bloomer who hasn't really improved all that much since 2019-20, and a late bloomer with consistent and steady progress over a number of years.

Luka may have gotten to 95%+ of what he is now by year 2, but Shai's incremental approach has led him to arguably greater heights. I'm thinking about this with Cooper Flagg in mind.

Shai took a step up starting in 2022-23. He arguably outplayed Luka (injured?) in the 2023-24 WCSF series. He won an MVP, FMVP, and NBA Championship in 2024-25. Seems like if he did pass him as a player, it might have been 2024. For resume/legacy/all-time ranking, after 2025 with the accolades.

I'm ok with people having Shai over Luka at this point, but I'm not ok with people perpetuating false narratives and rewriting history.

It's silly to say that Shai outplayed Luka in the WCSF. I know this narrative exists and Luka deifnitely had some poor games that series, but he delivered when it mattered most in games 5 and 6 and helped the Mavs advance. Not to mention that OKC's gameplan was to stop Luka at all costs (you can go back and look at how they defended him) which resulted in Mavs role players having a lot of room to operate. Luckily they delivered, something that didn't happen later against Boston for example when they all forgot how to shoot. OKC's gameplan didn't work, they lost and Luka was absolutely instrumental in that win and closed the series which is exactly what one expects from the top players.

Game 6 Luka stats:
29 PPG 9 AST 9 REB on ridiculous 80 TS%

Game 5 Luka stats:
31 PPG 11 AST 10 REB on 66.5 TS%

Not to mention that Luka was doing an insane carry job keeping injury-riddled Mavs in a playoff spot that season while averaging 33.9 pts 9.2 reb 9.8 ast on 61 TS%, so yes, he was banged up as well on top of everything else. Mavs were also #5 seed and big underdogs that series, not many believed they could win against OKC.

[MoneyTalks41890]

Shai obviously outplayed Luka in the 2024 series anyone with eyes and the ability to read stats saw that. PJ Washington was the MVP.

Shai has been better for a couple years now in terms of current play. And with his new hardware is pretty close all time.

[Mavrelous]

Luka outplayed SGA in 24 WCSF and his game 5 domnation in OKC was a sight to see, PJ shined because Luka created for him, and SGA defended him, I also think Luka is more talented, and whatever edge one thinks SGA has in scoring, Luka far surpasses in playmaking, but it's a moot point, only one of them is a mature proffisional who is acting like the face of a sports franchise, until this changes, it's SGA quite easily.

[NoStatsGuy]

still luka for me.

also pretty bad comparison imo. outside of foulbaiting they dont have much in common on the court.

[BadWolf]

Right now, sure, mvp, fmvp and ring pushed him clearly.over.
Long term it's to be decided.

[Patches Perry]

They came into the league the same season, and Luka was definitely better off the jump for the first 3-4 years.

If you go by first 3-4 years, its Luka.
If you go by last 3-4 years, its Shai.
Overall careers, its close to a wash

Given the trajectories; Shai coming off MVP, 1st team, FMVP and title with Luka coming off a down season, yes I'd say Shai has certainly passed Luka.

But it's still a heated race, and thats the part we should all acknowledge. There is no "and its not close" with these two.

[ball_takes23]

the trajectories definitely favor sga, SGA improves some part of his game every year while Luka seems to be stagnating since his first few years and in some ways he's actually worse because he settles for more stepback 3s and doesnt get to the basket nearly as much now

[Baz]

Shai obviously outplayed Luka in the 2024 series anyone with eyes and the ability to read stats saw that. PJ Washington was the MVP.

Shai has been better for a couple years now in terms of current play. And with his new hardware is pretty close all time.

People never mention Luka was playing through an injury that series and the entire playoffs.

Luka is the more talented player with a bigger individual impact and a higher ceiling. When you compare the rosters, it makes the ring a non-factor in this comparison. Luka has never been able to play with a supporting cast even close to the level of SGA's. Robert Horry was not better than Charles Barkley. Etc etc

[jg77]

Shai obviously outplayed Luka in the 2024 series anyone with eyes and the ability to read stats saw that. PJ Washington was the MVP.

Shai has been better for a couple years now in terms of current play. And with his new hardware is pretty close all time.

People never mention Luka was playing through an injury that series and the entire playoffs.

Luka is the more talented player with a bigger individual impact and a higher ceiling. When you compare the rosters, it makes the ring a non-factor in this comparison. Luka has never been able to play with a supporting cast even close to the level of SGA's. Robert Horry was not better than Charles Barkley. Etc etc

Everyone's injured at that point in the season.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm sure this thread has previously been made, but there was a Reddit post about it today, and it got me thinking. Has Shai passed Luka? If so, when? I mean it, both as a current player (goodness/impact on the game) but also all-time in a legacy sense. It's an interesting player comparison because Luka burst onto the scene while Shai took a few years to develop. Two prospects from the same draft, an early bloomer who hasn't really improved all that much since 2019-20, and a late bloomer with consistent and steady progress over a number of years.

Luka may have gotten to 95%+ of what he is now by year 2, but Shai's incremental approach has led him to arguably greater heights. I'm thinking about this with Cooper Flagg in mind.

Shai took a step up starting in 2022-23. He arguably outplayed Luka (injured?) in the 2023-24 WCSF series. He won an MVP, FMVP, and NBA Championship in 2024-25. Seems like if he did pass him as a player, it might have been 2024. For resume/legacy/all-time ranking, after 2025 with the accolades.

So, imho:

From a Peak achievement perspective, Luka had the edge through '22-23, and then Shai surpassed him in '23-24.

From a Career achievement perspective, Luka had the edge through '23-24, and then Shai surpassed him in '24-25.

(To be clear, I would still consider Luka to have had the better Peak & Career when considering only Offense.)

In terms of true goodness, I think Luka has a more debatable case than he does from a Peak achievement perspective. Understandable to think that a team as well built around Luka as OKC is around Shai would lead to a better team in the matchup. But me personally, trying to estimate goodness based on achievement, I'd said with Shai at this point.

Regarding Shai slowing improving to surpass the prodigy of Luka, yup, that's what happened. Where Luka got where he got largely with an intuitive genius, Shai feels like a guy who excels at micro-optimizing specific skills under the guidance of coaches and mentors that he actively listens to. Shai's far superior defense gives the opportunity, and then Shai literally emerging as a Top 3 level offensive player sealed the deal.