http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
lol at a potential 48 game losing streak for minnesota.
Hollinger playoff predictions revisited
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Hollinger playoff predictions revisited
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kandiking
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CupcakeNoFillin
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Schad
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The_Child_Prodigy wrote:Hollinger hates the Nets so much. He always says they will miss the playoffs yet they dont
I heard he visited a popular nets board and created a topic and got flamed for it. His hatred for the nets increased when that happened.
Yet again, Hollinger doesn't hate the Nets. His statistical models do. The Nets are giving up 4.2 points/100 possessions more than they score on the season; that's a worse average margin than Chicago (14-20), Philadelphia (14-23), Sacramento (14-21), and Indiana (17-21)...and 23rd overall in the league. That and their strength of schedule (12th easiest in the league) is why he has them finishing out of the playoffs. FWIW, I don't, but going by the numbers alone it's not a difficult case to make.
**** your asterisk.
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amb1ent
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Schadenfreude wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Yet again, Hollinger doesn't hate the Nets. His statistical models do. The Nets are giving up 4.2 points/100 possessions more than they score on the season; that's a worse average margin than Chicago (14-20), Philadelphia (14-23), Sacramento (14-21), and Indiana (17-21)...and 23rd overall in the league. That and their strength of schedule (12th easiest in the league) is why he has them finishing out of the playoffs. FWIW, I don't, but going by the numbers alone it's not a difficult case to make.
His numbers and equations and statistics hate the Nets, duh
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INKtastic
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In the Best projected record, Hollinger has Detroit finishing at 73-9 even though they've lost 10 games.
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you have just spotted an anomaly in Hollinger's model. With such anomaly exist, we can legimately question his model and the numbers!!
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sp6r=underrated
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ldnk
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Who do some people not understand the simplest thing about statistics.....THEY DON'T PREDICT BASED ON THE FUTURE, THEY PREDICT BASED ON WHAT WAS ALREADY OBSERVED.
If the Knicks magically trade rosters with the Spurs, their projected finish is still going to be awful because the Knicks roster put up horrible numbers. Once the Knicks(Spurs) started winning games, the stats for the Knicks would improve. Until that point it means nothing.
So if your team wins 55% of their games but is being outscored 99-96 on the season, the trends would suggest that the minus differential in points per game would lean towards a sub-500 record in the future.
If you have a player that was injured all year or playing hurt and he returns to the lineup, the stats don't know that. Those type of things are intangibles that cannot be calculated. Once the player returns and has an impact on the roster the prediction based on the same formulas would change.
Ray Allen could go crazy tomorrow, kill KG and Pierce and then down a bottle of poison. The Hollinger stats would still predict the Celtics to finish with a phenomenal record because the stats derived from his formulas are based on the roster BEFORE the loss of the big three. Once the Celtics started to lose, their predicted record would drop accordingly.
It really isn't that difficult. He doesn't hate your team, he doesn't fix the numbers. It's possible that his personal opinions when designing stats go against your current team makeup, but that has nothing to do with the team, because a year from now, you could complete change styles and he would have to come up with brand new formulas to "screw" your team over.
If the Knicks magically trade rosters with the Spurs, their projected finish is still going to be awful because the Knicks roster put up horrible numbers. Once the Knicks(Spurs) started winning games, the stats for the Knicks would improve. Until that point it means nothing.
So if your team wins 55% of their games but is being outscored 99-96 on the season, the trends would suggest that the minus differential in points per game would lean towards a sub-500 record in the future.
If you have a player that was injured all year or playing hurt and he returns to the lineup, the stats don't know that. Those type of things are intangibles that cannot be calculated. Once the player returns and has an impact on the roster the prediction based on the same formulas would change.
Ray Allen could go crazy tomorrow, kill KG and Pierce and then down a bottle of poison. The Hollinger stats would still predict the Celtics to finish with a phenomenal record because the stats derived from his formulas are based on the roster BEFORE the loss of the big three. Once the Celtics started to lose, their predicted record would drop accordingly.
It really isn't that difficult. He doesn't hate your team, he doesn't fix the numbers. It's possible that his personal opinions when designing stats go against your current team makeup, but that has nothing to do with the team, because a year from now, you could complete change styles and he would have to come up with brand new formulas to "screw" your team over.
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gswwhoops!
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