RealGM

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

lol at a potential 48 game losing streak for minnesota.

Wow, Lakers at the top of the West.

Detroit champ favourite, i like, i like

Lakers at the top of the West while the Spurs are in the bottom 3?

Hollinger hates the Nets so much. He always says they will miss the playoffs yet they dont

I heard he visited a popular nets board and created a topic and got flamed for it. His hatred for the nets increased when that happened.

The_Child_Prodigy wrote:Hollinger hates the Nets so much. He always says they will miss the playoffs yet they dont

I heard he visited a popular nets board and created a topic and got flamed for it. His hatred for the nets increased when that happened.

Yet again, Hollinger doesn't hate the Nets. His statistical models do. The Nets are giving up 4.2 points/100 possessions more than they score on the season; that's a worse average margin than Chicago (14-20), Philadelphia (14-23), Sacramento (14-21), and Indiana (17-21)...and 23rd overall in the league. That and their strength of schedule (12th easiest in the league) is why he has them finishing out of the playoffs. FWIW, I don't, but going by the numbers alone it's not a difficult case to make.

Schadenfreude wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Yet again, Hollinger doesn't hate the Nets. His statistical models do. The Nets are giving up 4.2 points/100 possessions more than they score on the season; that's a worse average margin than Chicago (14-20), Philadelphia (14-23), Sacramento (14-21), and Indiana (17-21)...and 23rd overall in the league. That and their strength of schedule (12th easiest in the league) is why he has them finishing out of the playoffs. FWIW, I don't, but going by the numbers alone it's not a difficult case to make.

His numbers and equations and statistics hate the Nets, duh

im surprised the blazers have the same record as the rockets

Oh Oh Lakers vs. Portland

Should I apologize to the blazer fans for what they are going to get again?

LOL @ LA being the highest % in West to win the title.
Maybe in a couple of years, but definitely not now.

In the Best projected record, Hollinger has Detroit finishing at 73-9 even though they've lost 10 games.

lj4mvp wrote:In the Best projected record, Hollinger has Detroit finishing at 73-9 even though they've lost 10 games.

well done. you have just spotted an anomaly in Hollinger's model. With such anomaly exist, we can legimately question his model and the numbers!!

lj4mvp wrote:In the Best projected record, Hollinger has Detroit finishing at 73-9 even though they've lost 10 games.

Detroit lost its 10th game TODAY, AFTER he made those predictions

perhaps reading would be a new thing to you?

i put a lot of stock into a model that says a team will go on a 50 game winning streak

yes

The best thing about it is that the Knicks who have a record of 10 and 26 could end up 9-73 in the worst case scenario

So the Kings have won 40% of their games so far but with Martin just now returning with Bibby returning on Wednesday and Artest returning soon after, we'll "most likely" win 36.7% of our games for the rest of the year.

Okay.

I could care less about Hollinger's predictions to be honest...

Why do some people hate Hollinger so much?

Who do some people not understand the simplest thing about statistics.....THEY DON'T PREDICT BASED ON THE FUTURE, THEY PREDICT BASED ON WHAT WAS ALREADY OBSERVED.

If the Knicks magically trade rosters with the Spurs, their projected finish is still going to be awful because the Knicks roster put up horrible numbers. Once the Knicks(Spurs) started winning games, the stats for the Knicks would improve. Until that point it means nothing.

So if your team wins 55% of their games but is being outscored 99-96 on the season, the trends would suggest that the minus differential in points per game would lean towards a sub-500 record in the future.

If you have a player that was injured all year or playing hurt and he returns to the lineup, the stats don't know that. Those type of things are intangibles that cannot be calculated. Once the player returns and has an impact on the roster the prediction based on the same formulas would change.

Ray Allen could go crazy tomorrow, kill KG and Pierce and then down a bottle of poison. The Hollinger stats would still predict the Celtics to finish with a phenomenal record because the stats derived from his formulas are based on the roster BEFORE the loss of the big three. Once the Celtics started to lose, their predicted record would drop accordingly.

It really isn't that difficult. He doesn't hate your team, he doesn't fix the numbers. It's possible that his personal opinions when designing stats go against your current team makeup, but that has nothing to do with the team, because a year from now, you could complete change styles and he would have to come up with brand new formulas to "screw" your team over.

WHat's the timestamp for that prediction?