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PG assist numbers inflated? Interesting read here (long)

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 8:48 pm
by Teen Girl Squad
Found this on another forum: I would give credit to the author but I dont know who he is. Its an interesting read about Paul/West and assists. THIS IS NOT A CP3 BASHING POST FOR THOSE WHO JUST READ THE THREAD TITLE.

From a post on another forum:

I received quite a surprise when I looked at the official play by play sheet and discovered that Paul was credited with assists on seven of West's 13 field goals. Rick Barry once told me that the only statistic that he trusts is free throw percentage and Oscar Robertson has complained many times that the definition of an assist is much more liberal now than it was during his playing days. I went back to the tape to look at each of West's field goals. His first three scores came on driving moves for which no assist was credited. Then things get very interesting. West's fourth field goal came at the 1:02 mark of the first quarter. Paul passed to Bonzi Wells, who swung the ball from the right elbow to West on the left baseline. West caught the ball at 1:06, took two dribbles and lofted a tough floater over Duncan. An assist is supposed to be awarded only if the recipient immediately shoots, not after he takes multiple dribbles, so there is no way that an assist should have been awarded--and if an assist was awarded it should have been given to Wells, not Paul.

Robertson would have a fit if he saw West's fifth field goal: Paul passed the ball to West at the 1:51 mark in the second quarter. West made a jab step to the right, drove left, stopped and shot a tough fadeaway jumper over Oberto and Thomas. West made a fake, took a dribble and then shot a fadeaway, so there absolutely should not be an assist awarded for that shot. Sloppy scorekeeping like this makes it easier to understand how guys like Paul and Steve Nash are racking up such lofty assist numbers and why people are convinced that West and Amare Stoudemire could not tie their shoelaces if their point guards did not help them. West displayed excellent footwork and ballhandling but people will look at the play by play sheet and boxscore and say, "Look how Paul is making West better."

West's sixth field goal was a hook shot for which Jannero Pargo received an assist, which is pretty strange considering that West received the ball on the left wing at the 1:13 mark, faked a jumper, took one dribble to the left, dribbled between his legs, drove across the lane to the right and shot a hook over Oberto at the 1:08 mark. How exactly did Pargo "assist" West?

At the 7:43 mark of the third quarter West made his seventh field goal, a dunk after a nice feed from Paul, the third time that Paul was credited with an assist on a West shot but the first one that actually was a legitimate assist by Paul.

At the 3:51 mark of the third quarter, Paul passed to West, who was stationed on the left block. West faked a drop step move, took two dribbles and then delivered a left handed hook. Again, no assist is supposed to be awarded on such a play but Paul was credited with one.

Less than two minutes later, Paul passed to West on the right wing. West faked a jumper, took two dribbles into the lane and made a tough runner. Shockingly, the friendly New Orleans scorekeeper did not give Paul an assist on this play.

About a minute later, Morris Peterson passed to West on the left wing. West faked a jumper, took two dribbles and made a fadeaway jumper. Naturally, Peterson was (wrongly) credited with an assist.

At the 10:17 mark of the fourth quarter, Paul passed to West on the right wing and West immediately raised up and made a jumper. That was correctly scored as an assist for Paul.

At the 9:36 mark of the fourth quarter, Paul passed to West on the left wing and West executed a reverse pivot before firing a fadeaway jumper. Paul was awarded an assist; West made a move after receiving the pass but he did shoot almost immediately, so that assist is marginal but acceptable. West's 13th field goal was a dunk off of a nice Paul feed.

So, of Paul's seven assists on West's field goals, three were clearly wrong, three were clearly correct and one was marginal. I have no idea whether or not this ratio is typical or a one game aberration but there is no question that the play by play sheet and boxscore from this game tell a much different story than the naked eye does.

Paul is a very good point guard and he hardly needs to have anybody padding his statistics. What's more, this is not fair to West--who is generating a lot of his offense on his own--nor is it fair to the players whose assist records Paul is breaking.


This is not a CP3 bashing thread but it does raise concerns on what is really an assist and if like physical defenders, the reputation of players factors into their stats. Does CP3 (and other point guards like Nash) get more generous assists awarded because they are pass first? Do SG like Kobe get less of a margin? Do these guards get more credit if their target is a "no name" like west. Or is this just analysing too much and happens all the time? Would just like to see some opinions.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 8:55 pm
by CB4MiamiHeat
that might have been a rare instance though..usually when Paul passes it to West, West puts the ball on the floor, creates his own shot=no assist.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 8:57 pm
by Duffman100
I'd like someone to go over all of Oscar's career with a fine tooth comb.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 8:58 pm
by 2poor
Duffman100 wrote:I'd like someone to go over all of Oscar's career with a fine tooth comb.


Indeed. This is silly.

edit: I will add though that I was under the impression that players get assists when the person they passed to took NO MORE than 2 dribbles before attempting/making a shot.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 9:24 pm
by Phobo_Phile
I think assists should be even more liberal. If the player who is scoring has to put it down on the floor a couple times, it doesn't mean that the passer didn't "assist" him with the bucket. I'd also like to see the passer get an assist if the shooter misses the bucket but gets fouled and gets free throws.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 9:27 pm
by JellosJigglin
I think Paul's teammates help him inflate his assist numbers in a different way. Whenever I watch that team play, it seems like getting a pass from Paul is like getting the green light to shoot. Doesn't matter how early in the shot clock it is, if he passes the ball, they seem to shoot it right away. They're definitely not the most patient team on offense, but it works for them.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 9:44 pm
by 2poor
JellosJigglin wrote:I think Paul's teammates help him inflate his assist numbers in a different way. Whenever I watch that team play, it seems like getting a pass from Paul is like getting the green light to shoot. Doesn't matter how early in the shot clock it is, if he passes the ball, they seem to shoot it right away. They're definitely not the most patient team on offense, but it works for them.


Pace disagrees with you. They were one of the slowest teams in the league.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 9:46 pm
by Copperhead
JellosJigglin wrote:I think Paul's teammates help him inflate his assist numbers in a different way. Whenever I watch that team play, it seems like getting a pass from Paul is like getting the green light to shoot. Doesn't matter how early in the shot clock it is, if he passes the ball, they seem to shoot it right away. They're definitely not the most patient team on offense, but it works for them.


He gets them in the best positions/best spots to make shots.

Not directed at you Jellos but is this what it comes down to now? When Paul leads the league in any category, people will look to find out how his numbers come and how they're 'inflated'? LMAO!

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 9:48 pm
by 2poor
Copperhead wrote:He gets them in the best positions/best spots to make shots.

Not directed at you Jellos but is this what it comes down to now? When Paul leads the league in any category, people will look to find out how his numbers come and how they're 'inflated'? LMAO!


At least this one isn't nearly as whiny and pathetic as this one. :lol:

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 9:59 pm
by Anticon
6-1 playoff record against the defending champs and the team with last year's best record.

I don't know if one really needs to say anything else.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 10:08 pm
by Mr. Savage
Stats suck...

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 10:17 pm
by Red Robot
Assists are definitely one of the more subjective stats. They've always been "inflated". It seems to affect all players equally, not just Paul or other pass-first point guards. I think we're too quick to look to assists when evaluating the effectiveness of a distributor.

To me the most interesting thing here is how the assist stat can lead to the under-appreciation of "assisted" players like West.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 10:23 pm
by Kobay
Their offense is perfectly built. On the fast break everybody knows their position. Peja stops at the three line and gives cp3 option1. There is an extra guy who will run to the paint to give him option 2. Cp3 trails behind them, and decides which one to pass to or fakes it and takes the shot himself. Thats basically their fast break offense. On transition, everyone gets their position. For West, everyone moves to the strong side and gives west to go to work or on occasion do pick and pop with cp3. For peja they run screen plays and cp3 throws a bullet to the corner for the three, similar play for Peterson. With chandler its pick roll around the ft line or at the center top for the lob. Cp3 him self around the rim has the floater or takes a jumper only when he is open. Thats all to their offense.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 10:25 pm
by hisairness
Every star gets those assists, there are plenty of plays when one guy makes his own individual move with couple of dribbles and then in play by play you see someone got assist for it and it seems big named players get that credit more often.
Ex. One Nets game earlier in the season Kidd inbounded the ball to Carter who caught it at the free throw line, turned around, took a dribble to his right then spun to his left, took two steps and shot a difficult fadeaway. Kidd didn't do anything on that move except inbounding the ball but he got credit for the assist anyway.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 10:37 pm
by Tabasco
The only example on there that makes absolutely no sense to me is the one where Paul passed to Bonzi who then passed to West for the score. Why the hell would Paul get the assist for that??

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 10:50 pm
by jzmagik
Tabasco wrote:The only example on there that makes absolutely no sense to me is the one where Paul passed to Bonzi who then passed to West for the score. Why the hell would Paul get the assist for that??


That's pretty questionable, but assist inflation has been going on for a while. I remember reading an article about how Stockton's assist numbers were inflated by their home scorekeepers.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 11:08 pm
by dacher
I don't see evidence for it.

I challenge someone to put up data backing up this claim.

I've browsed a few team stats on basketballreference.com and assists where higher in the 80s. But today's team assist totals are approximately the same or down as compared to every other decade.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 11:17 pm
by wigglestrue
Red Robot wrote:Assists are definitely one of the more subjective stats. They've always been "inflated".


Except for when they were, like, deflated.
In the era of Cousy, Jerry West, Oscar, Frazier...

The definition of an assist ought to be consistent and common-sensical. A guy receives a basic lob, then upfakes, then drives, then jumpstops and upfakes again...no WAY should the lobber get an assist, and IMO it's actually a crime against statistical integrity to give an assist there, lol. On the other hand, if a PG pulls off a breathtaking no look backdoor bounce pass to a big man and the big man gets fouled on what would've been an easy two, there should be some kind of assist. If it turns out that any PG's assists have been inflated regularly by the former kind of shady attribution, then some no-life stat geeks need to go after those scorekeepers with a vengeance.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 11:31 pm
by Paydro70
Well, Chris Paul averaged 11.9 apg at home, 11.2 at home... so whatever the "New Orleans" effect is, it's apparently not that extreme (since we would EXPECT Paul to play slightly better at home).

It's quite possible scoring has changed in the past 20 years... it would be very hard to show conclusively though. If anything, it just confirms that people should be compared to their era, not a uniform standard. But most advanced stats already do that.

Posted: Wed May 7, 2008 11:35 pm
by wigglestrue
Paydro70 wrote:Well, Chris Paul averaged 11.9 apg at home, 11.2 at home... so whatever the "New Orleans" effect is, it's apparently not that extreme (since we would EXPECT Paul to play slightly better at home).

It's quite possible scoring has changed in the past 20 years... it would be very hard to show conclusively though. If anything, it just confirms that people should be compared to their era, not a uniform standard. But most advanced stats already do that.


Doesn't even have to be home cooking, certain players like Chris Paul or Deron Williams or Steve Nash might get credited with assists leniently by any scorekeeper.