Kevin GarnettTough call; past his offensive prime and likewise past his rebounding prime (a rather large dip from the last 4 years) but has he ever been better defensively?
Let's say right at the end of his prime.
Kobe BryantSmack in the middle of his prime, with 3+ years left on top of his game.
Allen IversonPast his prime by a couple of years; he's slower than he used to be but gets past defenders because of the cheater rules for perimeter defense and he pads his stats with FTAs he earns for that reason.
Credit to him for adapting his game to Denver; passing more, working with 'Melo really well and all that but he's past his prime. Still tough as Hell, though and even though he's lost a step, he's still one of the fastest players in the league, which is crazy.
Ray AllenJust past his prime; he had a big year last year for the Sonics but he fell pretty flat at times this year for various reasons. Injuries and age catching up to him, but he still managed to be huge when it mattered.
Tim Duncan
Really difficult to tell; he fell off a bit this year, despite his stats looking similar. I'd say he's still in his prime, though, and has several top-end years left in him because he's got a versatile game that isn't based on athleticism and he's got some significant physical advantages against most NBA players at his positions.
Having said that, he just posted like a 5-year high in RPG despite a 4-year low in MPG, so yeah, still in his prime and he's got 3-5 years left in his in the 18-20 ppg, 10-11 rpg range.
Manu GinobiliPrime, for sure, but it's easier because he plays 6th man minutes, so he's not logging the time on the court that runs people down. He just peaked big-time and looked great doing it. He's got a couple years of prime left, 2 or 3.
Joe JohnsonPrime and he's got years left; he's 26 years old, he's got a half-decade and more left in him at his peak level; he's just ENTERING his prime, really.
Tracy McGradyPast his prime, definitely. His prime ended after his 32 ppg season because injuries started to really take their toll on his scoring ability. He's developed since as a defender and has always been an outstanding playmaker but he's been declining for a half-decade now and has missed a significant number of games in the last three consecutive seasons and 4 of the last 5. He's nothing like he was at his peak; he can't afford to drive as aggressively as he used to, so he shoots a lot and he's not being posted as regularly either, which is unfortunate. McGrady killed his longevity by not working out during the season until his last year in Orlando or so because he didn't know any better and by being thrust into a physically demanding role as lead scorer in Orlando pre-handcheck rule way too early. He had a hell of a 5-year run from his first year in Orlando to his first year in Houston but from the second scoring title year on, he declined in efficiency and his game fell apart. He's like old Clyde Drexler, now. Actually, I think that's an awesome comparison for him...
Definitely several years past his prime, I'd say about 5 years past, though only a few years past his athletic prime and he's clearly still got the hops and quickness to be dangerous, just not like he was back in the day.
Baron DavisI guess you'd call what he's doing his prime; he's still a dumb-ass about shot selection but he's definitely in his prime physically and his game has matured a little as far as playmaking and defense, though in reality he's always been a great playmaker when he set his mind to it. He's certainly in his physical prime.
Jermaine O'nealWell past. Did JO have a prime? I guess it's relative to the rest of his career, because he was always soft and stupid about his game. He's past his prime as a defender and rebounder, though still impactful there. He had a two-year peak in his second and third seasons in Indiana and then a surge in 05-06 (but he only played 51 games), so let's call him 5 years past his prime.
Gilbert ArenasDefinitely in his prime and he's got years to go. He's got 6, 7 years of peak play left, I think; he's only 26, just like JJ.
Carlos BoozerIn his prime; he's 26 and he's playing as well as he ever has. He's also got years to go; maybe longer than Arenas and JJ because he plays a game a lot like Karl Malone.
Dirk NowtizkiIn his prime and he's probably got 3 or 4 years left at least; maybe more, because he's a finesse player who doesn't bang a lot. He's 29 but he doesn't take the same kind of physical toll as a lot of other players because he's so reliant on his shot. Yeah, he's got at least 3 or 4 years of peak play to go.
Shawn MarionAt the trailing edge of his prime; his prime matches his physical prime because his primary attribute are athletic traits and off-ball movement (speed in transition, the movement towards offensive boards and alley-oops, he uses his athleticism to get his boards, etc). The last time he scored under 17.3 ppg was his rookie year (he scored 15.4 ppg this year) and he randomly decided to fall off massively at the foul line, hence the reduction. I guess his regular season play was good enough except for the FT shooting that otherwise he'd be in a similar boat but he was about 12% under his career average in FT% and that was distressing. Unlike his usual iron-man self, he was injured, too, so that probably didn't help.
I'd say he's got 1-3 years of his current level of production remaining, so I guess that makes him still in his prime, yeah.
Paul PierceIn his prime; his rebounding was down but they added Garnett. He had one of his best passing seasons and his scoring efficiency was actually a career-high. He wasn't tossing 24+ ppg the way he used to but he was near 20 ppg even with three other comparable scorers on the squad and he was as good defensively as he's ever been... and he was the Finals MVP, posting some huge performances throughout the playoffs to help push this team to the title.
He's at the end of his prime, the last two or three years but he's still a massively impressive player. Actually, given his style of play, maybe make that 2-4 years of prime remaining. He posts a lot and is really strong. He's done his 25+ ppg scoring seasons but he's still contributing all across the board, as usual. Starting to get his due, as well; he was always overshadowed by Kobe and other guys but Pierce is definitely an outstanding player.
Jason KiddI want to say past his prime and he's certainly past his physical prime... and he sucked in the playoffs compared to his usual performances...
But he was as good as he's ever been in the regular season, posting his third 10+ apg season (and first since 99-00), having the second-best rebounding performance of his career, triple-doubling all over the place, and he even picked up his scoring efficiency and shooting in Dallas over the last third of the season. Had the best 3pt shooting season of his career, too, before collapsing in the playoffs with the rest of the non-Dirk Mavs.
Let's say he's got a year or two of prime production left, because he's surprisingly cagey and very skilled... he's also a big guard and that goes a long way.
Chancey BillupsIn his prime; he just had one of the best regular seasons of his career and a reasonable postseason performance. Overrated as Mr. Big Shot or whatever but in his prime and because he's a physically intimidating big guard with a nasty jumper, I'd say he's got about 3 years or so at peak production, maybe more. He doesn't really rely on quickness or hops at all, just powering through people, canny off-ball movement, the use of screens, etc. He's a smart and powerful player with nasty range, he's going to be going for a while.
Rip HamiltonPrime. He's 29, he's all about the sweet shot and basketball IQ, his scoring is down but that's from volume of shots attempted and not efficiency, which has gone up and he's as nasty as he's ever been. Had a pretty outstanding postseason, as usual. Couldn't hit the three but he shot the best FG% of his postseason career and was his usual well-rounded self. He's got 4, 5 years to go, I think.
A lot of the guys on this list will be in their "prime" into their mid-30s because they're skill players. Even Kobe, I mean, his regular season projections look a lot like Jordan's, nasty right up to 34, 35...
SheedDone like a Christmas turkey? Past his scoring prime, past his athletic prime, declining as a rebounder... still a nasty defender but he flamed out in the playoffs for the second consecutive season. He's nothing like the player he was at his peak, which was a nasty defending, 9 rpg 19 ppg scoring guy. This is a guy who once put up a 25/12 over a 3-game first round series for Portland.
He's a roleplayer now, a starter but not a focal player. He's years past his prime, which was in Portland 5 or 6 years ago.
Yao MingIn his prime and he's got 6, 7 years of that left. He's a big man with a massive height advantage who has almost no athleticism to speak of in terms of advantage. Moves well for his size, runs the floor well and all that but he doesn't rely on early-offense buckets in transition, he comes in the secondary break or after that. Doesn't out jump you, doesn't out quick you. He shots over you, moves around you, goes through you. He's a lot like Duncan in that respect, where his offense can just go and go and go.
Elton BrandIn his prime, providing his injury heals up. Tough call, we need to see him over the course of next season to make that call. Given his age and style of ball, he should still be in his prime.
Rashard LewisPrime. He's got 4, 5 years of this left, maybe more. He's probably not going to be doing much more of the 20 ppg thing because his team has more balance but he's still as good a shooter as he ever has been and he's posting and he's got Dwight and blah, blah blah. He's got a long time left.
Richard JeffersonPrime; he's playing as well as he ever has. Just entering his prime, he's got years left.
Michael ReddQuieting down some after bursts the last season and a half. In his prime, probably suffering from a crappy team. He's got years left, he's a shooter (though like Ray-Ray, he can slash better than most realize).
Steve NashPast his prime by about a year; he's a step slower, though he's shooting so well it's hard to see it. Statistically, he's as good as he's ever been but his three was AWOL in the playoffs (30.0% 3P, career playoff 3P% of 41.3%) and he was laboring up and down the court, and not just because D'Antoni didn't go to his bench a lot.
You know what, maybe we'll call this 'still in his prime and past his athletic prime,' because aside from that, he was nasty. Let's see next year. He's got tops 1 or 2 more years of this, IMO, though given his rigorous conditioning program, it might be 2 or 3.
Antwan JamisonJust had a career-year on the glass and his third-best scoring season. He's in his prime and he's got 2 or 3 more years of this. He's a smart player with a decent shot and good instincts.
Vince CarterPast his prime... by about 7 years. Injuries and a weak approach to the game made Vince's third season the last of his prime, though he's still had moments and stretches and even full seasons where he's been a very good player.
He's actually been better than ever on the glass in New Jersey and hasn't passed this well since 03-04 in Toronto. He's healthy again but he's nothing like the dangerous scorer he was in his first three years. He's found what is, I guess, a comfortable spot for himself in the 23-25 ppg range and at that level, you can expect him to continue producing for another 3-5 years because he shoots a lot of jumpers (and does it well) and doesn't rely on the drive to draw prolific amounts of FTAs. He needs to pick his 3P% back up, because he's been under his career average for 3 years running now but Vince is in a groove that could well take him to the age of 34 or so, give or take a year or two. He's a very skilled player and has now posted 6 rpg (his career-high) in consecutive seasons over 82 and 76 games. In New Jersey, he's been healthy and logging 38+ mpg over the roughly 300 games he's played for them (294) these last 3.6 seasons. He's averaged 78.5 games per season from 04-05 forward, which is a far cry from what Toronto endured from him from 01-02 through 03-04, when he averaged just under 59 games per season. We've found Vince and here he is... basically a 24/5/5 player on around 55% TS, which is pretty good. Passive at times, doesn't seek contact well, fades too much on the overly numerous jumpers he takes but he's still a pretty spectacular, All-Star caliber player that pretty much any team should feel lucky to have... as long as they have the right balance on the team.
Excellent analysis, I love reading your posts with real analysis without using stats....