why the NBA is in danger (an analysis of the Euro-threat)

[asdfgh]

Regardless of what happens with Childress, I think people fail to realize one thing.

A lot of these NBA players signed by European teams, are European or at least not from the US (e.g. Delfino). One of the things that separated the NBA from other US major sports leagues was its international appeal. While the NFL is far more popular in the States, not many people around the world know NFL stars or who even won the Superbowl (hell, I live in the US and I have no clue who won the most recent Superbowls with the exception of the last one and that's only because I live in NYC).
On the other hand everyone around the world watches the NBA. I was in Hong Kong recently and everyone was watching the NBA Finals but no one even cared about hockey or baseball.

If international players leave the NBA or draftees stop coming to the league (which has already begun happening, see Vazquez ignoring Orlando, Ilyasova leaving Milwaukee and all the recent signings), do you think all the people from around the world that post here will continue to care about the NBA? A big part of the NBA's fanbase will be lost if people from Spain or say Slovenia have no one from their own country to cheer for.
Right now Europe still isn't ready to compete with the NBA on ANY level. But in two years, ULEB is planning to change the Euroleague by having 16 teams that will fulfill a certain set of criteria: a big modern arena, good attendance and the willingness to spend enough money to be competitive. Once that happens, things will certainly change. You can't sign NBA guys who are used to playing in state-of-the-art arenas and then ask them to play in gyms in front of 1,000 people, which is what happens in the European domestic leagues, with the exception of Spain. In Russia for example even the top teams play in really small arenas.
In order to solve this problems what must happen is that the top teams only play in the Euroleague, not the domestic leagues.

That would be a huge blow for Stern's plans to expand to Europe and exploit a huge market and will obviously limit the NBA's marketability.

That's why this is a problem and not because some good players are crossing the Atlantic.
I don't know how many of you remember Danny Ferry (the 2nd pick in the draft) signing with a team in Italy. This isn't the first time American stars chose to play in Europe when the salary cap prevented them from getting market value in the US, but the circumstances are different now and the NBA is in danger regardless of what some delusional "if it aint shown on ESPN, it aint worth it" fans might think.
And the problem will only get worse if there's another lockout in 2011 (you know the NBPA will fight hard to get rid of the (Please Use More Appropriate Word) RFA contracts).

[semi-sentient]

I would add that there's probably some appeal for American athletes to play in another country if for no other reason than to explore something outside the US. Given the appropriate salary, I'd imagine damn near anyone would be willing to jump ship and play abroad, except for maybe those who care more about their legacy in the NBA than anything (Kobe, for example).

[blzrfan]

The best foreign prospects and players are going to come to the NBA. Look at Rudy Fernandez, Marc Gasol, Gallinari, Luis Scola, and countless others. For every Tiago Splitter, there are many more players coming to the NBA. It is the premier league of the world, any competitive basketball player will want to challenge themselves to see where they measure up. Navarros and Delfinos of the world can go back to Europe for all I care, there will be better international prospects to replace them.

The international market appeal hinges on the the performance and nationality of the player, not just the nationality. There is usually more than one player in the NBA from each country, the better ones usually stay in the NBA, while the mediocre ones go back to cash their checks against inferior competition.

[asdfgh]

The question is for how long will that happen blzrfan? If the work environment improves significantly in Europe and the competition becomes stronger, a lot of players will choose to stay there instead of jeopardizing their financial future.

I mentioned earlier the example of Ferry who played in Europe because he couldn't get a deal done with the Cavs (how ironic, he now works for them).
There were a number of reasons why that phenomenon didn't escalate:
1. Rookie contracts: By setting a rookie scale, everyone knew what they could get, no teams could lowball their players (like Minnesota tried to do with Donyell Marshall for example back in '94) and no one could have unreasonable demands either. Rookie contracts worked as long as they were 3 years long, which was the case until '97. After that, RFA status was introduced which has really damaged the league IMO. The reason it was introduced was so that teams could keep their rookies and not lose them after 3 years, but I think that problem was way exaggerated. If an organization does a good job, they will be able to keep those draftees. Tim Duncan stayed in San Antonio after his rookie contract expired and they were a small market. Tracy McGrady didn't work out in Toronto and he left. Big deal. Toronto becomes a bad team, gets the chance to pick another player in the draft and if they make good decisions this time, they will be able to keep their player (and they did because Bosh was happy to stay there). Now with RFA you have guys like Baron Davis signing contracts with the Hornets and then trying to find a way out or guys like Elton Brand signing with Miami and having the offer matched, which means they have to endure a few more miserable years playing for an organization they don't like. And then you have guys like Varejao, Pavlovic, Childress, Bell, Smith etc. who can't get a contract offer because no team has a chance of signing them.

2. The Dream Team made the NBA very very popular everywhere in the world. Basketball is the only one of the 4 major league sports that is played in the Summer Olympics and that gives the NBA a major advantage compared to other sports league in N. America. However, in recent years the US teams have failed miserably, which has really hurt the perception many fans had of the NBA as the league where the best basketball is played. I'm not challenging the notion that the best talent is in the NBA, I'm simply saying that many fans think the NBA game is watered down, or perhaps not the best type of basketball one could watch.

3. European basketball has improved significantly in recent years and measures are taken to make things even better. I'm not sure they are heading towards the right direction but they are making progress. This was obviously not the case 20 years when any effort to bring a top player failed, because the infrastructures were non-existent.

[Zyme]

The best foreign prospects and players are going to come to the NBA. Look at Rudy Fernandez, Marc Gasol, Gallinari, Luis Scola, and countless others. For every Tiago Splitter, there are many more players coming to the NBA. It is the premier league of the world, any competitive basketball player will want to challenge themselves to see where they measure up. Navarros and Delfinos of the world can go back to Europe for all I care, there will be better international prospects to replace them.

The international market appeal hinges on the the performance and nationality of the player, not just the nationality. There is usually more than one player in the NBA from each country, the better ones usually stay in the NBA, while the mediocre ones go back to cash their checks against inferior competition.

I can only speek for the player I have been following within the blazers' organization: Rudy Fernandez and Peteri Koponen. For both of them, they turining down lucrative contracts (above 60Mil USD in the case of Fernandez from CKVS Moscow) in order to fufill a dream. This dream is to play in the NBA. From my reflection of both of these players expressions and quotes, they both use this word of "dream" in regards to the NBA. In order for your trend to finially come to pass, it would take an entire paradime shift where players no longer aspire to be in the NBA. Unless these dreams end, players will continue to dream and turn down the dollar to come to the NBA.

[Shav]

We have to monitor the Brandon Jenning's situation as well. The first big time high school prospect who choses to go play in Europe until he turns NBA eligible (19) in place of one year in NCAA. If this plays out well for the young man and he gains NBA lottery status come draft time, this could be quite crippling to the NCAA. It would also almost force the NBA to rescind their recently applied age requirement.

[Batu7]

About the Jennings situation: Can the NBA make a rule that states players must go to college for at least one year to be eligible for the draft? If they can, would the players association allow it?(That's a stupid question though, why should they)

[Heat3]

About the Jennings situation: Can the NBA make a rule that states players must go to college for at least one year to be eligible for the draft? If they can, would the players association allow it?(That's a stupid question though, why should they)

they can try...then they'd get sued. I'm 100% sure they'd throw it out. In anycase, one has nothing to do with the other. The NBA should not be in business to prop up NCAA. It should develop a true farm system.

[lukeridenour]

the dream of playing in the nba used to be a reach for many foreign players. if the foreign leads continue to sign MLE type guys soon their leagues will be pretty competitive, imo the dream of playing in the nba is due to the fact that the worlds greatest basketball players play there. if the foreign leagues amass enough talent, its not impossible that their league will have great competition as well. when this happens, dreams will change.

[Captain_Morgan]

STOP over blowing the situation. So what? I don't care if Josh Childress is going to play in Europe or some scrub player. Who cares? Seriously.... Who gives a ****? Unless the European teams can sign a legit star from the NBA then I will start worrying. Right now, I don't give a crap!!!!

[Genjuro]

Although I'm highly pessimistic on this Euro trend (no income, no revenues, artificially high budgets, big-money spenders that can get tired at some point), I want to make a point about the desire of international player of going to the NBA.

It is true that today everybody wants to go to the NBA. Even those who stay or come back, it's because they get a huge lot more money: with comparable offers, even moderately higher coming from Europe, they always choose the NBA.

I think there are a number of reasons why that happens. The most important ones:
1. To play with and against the best players in the world.
2. To play in the league with the highest salary potential.
3. The NBA gets a huge more media attention than the European leagues from the European media.
4. The NBA is still a myth for all those players, as they grew up either in the late eighties watching Magic and Bird, or in the nineties, with Michael Jordan and the Dream Team.

The first point is not going to change any time soon.

The second point, while being true and still being in the future, looks more controversial, as the money paid now in Europe is so big, that future earnings in the NBA might not compensate the short-term loss.

The third point is difficult to evaluate, although I don't seem many reasons to change anytime soon. It's ironic, because I think the NBA has no potential at all as a broadcasted TV show, because very few people in Europe would stand the endless games live (it's a torture unless it's a great game), but the highlights, the show and the stars are so easy to sell to the media...

The fourth point can change very soon. Will the kids growing up in this decade, watching USA losing against international competition, feel the same about the NBA? I'm not so sure. I don't think they will consider it a myth in the same degree as past generations.

[Lakers_4_Life]

STOP over blowing the situation. So what? I don't care if Josh Childress is going to play in Europe or some scrub player. Who cares? Seriously.... Who gives a ****? Unless the European teams can sign a legit star from the NBA then I will start worrying. Right now, I don't give a crap!!!!

European teams have signed guys like Bob McAdoo and Dominique Wilkins in the past. If a team like Panathinaikos for example wants an NBA star, they will do whatever it takes to get him. The ONLY reason they haven't signed one is because they have not targeted one. A team like that would think nothing of $80-$100 million for a top NBA player.

[AgEnT50]

Josh Childress: In the Ferrari or Jaguar, switchin' four lanes wit' the top down screaming out Money ain't a Thang

[Captain_Morgan]

STOP over blowing the situation. So what? I don't care if Josh Childress is going to play in Europe or some scrub player. Who cares? Seriously.... Who gives a ****? Unless the European teams can sign a legit star from the NBA then I will start worrying. Right now, I don't give a crap!!!!

European teams have signed guys like Bob McAdoo and Dominique Wilkins in the past. If a team like Panathinaikos for example wants an NBA star, they will do whatever it takes to get him. The ONLY reason they haven't signed one is because they have not targeted one. A team like that would think nothing of $80-$100 million for a top NBA player.

Those two were past their prime when they went to Europe.

Plus, Euro leagues are only capable of signing scrubs players from the NBA. They don't have the money to sign a legit NBA star. They don't have the money, the sponsors and the market exposure to do such a thing. Just because they are paying scrub players big money doesn't mean they can dish out bigger money to sign superstar players. This is a non-issue. NBA is still the premier league in the world. Why are people suddenly worried about role players going to Europe? How is this a threat to the NBA? Seriously... You guys are like one of those small towns in Midwest worried about being attacked by terrorists and anthrax. Go ahead, keep talking a non-issue.

Plus Jennings is going to Europe so he can make some quick cash and then come to the NBA.

[Captain_Morgan]

This is like when Beckham signed with LA and came to MLS. Are European soccer leagues and fans worried? No.... European soccer leagues will always have the best players and teams in the world. Beckham was past his prime anyway. Nobody was crying about it.

[ropjhk]

So long as the likes of Dirk, Pau, Yao, Tony and Manu play in the NBA, the NBA will be #1.

The day may come however when a Euro player of their caliber in his prime turns down the NBA for a more lucrative contract to play in his home country.

That will be a milestone for the Euroleagues, and a clear sign of the NBA in danger.

[SA37]

So long as the likes of Dirk, Pau, Yao, Tony and Manu play in the NBA, the NBA will be #1.

The day may come however when a Euro player of their caliber in his prime turns down the NBA for a more lucrative contract to play in his home country.

That will be a milestone for the Euroleagues, and a clear sign of the NBA in danger.

This has already happened. Arvydas Sabonis was apparently an absolute monster at center, but didn't come to the NBA until he was past his prime.

I know he isn't European, but Oscar Schmidt was an absolute legend. He averaged 28 a game for his Olympic career, including 42 a game in 1992. He was drafted by the Nets but never played.

Before Drazen Petrovic died, he was supposedly considering going back to Europe.

[asdfgh]

There are a lot of top european guys or european-based players that stay in Europe. Bodiroga for example never played in the NBA. Diamantidis isn't interested in the NBA either. Splitter recently signed a new contract in Spain. Papaloukas wanted to go to the NBA but couldn't get the offer he wanted. Scola went to the NBA when he was 27 years old. All of these guys are top european players comparable to Dirk, Pau, Manu, Tony etc.

[goo kennedy]

I think it has much less to do with competition than it does money. The majority of players will go where the money is. Sure, a few will take a pay cut to follow their NBA dreams, but when the dollars are staggeringly different, they are going to take the bigger contract. It's not about pride or competitiveness, it's simple economics. When a player like Splitter is offered $5M/year, he would be stupid to be locked into the rookie salary slot in the NBA for $900k. That's a ton of money he would've left on the table.

Clearly, the NBA has some structural issues with the rookie salary cap and first round slotting that puts them at a competitive disadvantage, but all that does is make teams think twice about drafting a foreign player late in the first round. In the second round, they can pay them whatever they want to, so draft them there. I see restricted free agency as less of a problem -- the salary cap isn't going away anytime soon so the majority of the owners are going to keep their payrolls in line. If someone like Chlidress or Delfino gets squeezed out because of the cap or a cheap owner, then so be it. I have no problem with them trying to make a buck overseas and I have no problem with an NBA owner managing his business with fiscal responsibility.

The bigger question is can the Euroleague become financially competitive with the NBA long-term? I'm not talking about a few Russian billionaires buying a few players here and there, I'm talking about a self-sustaining business model that allows them to compete on even footing with the NBA. Maybe they can eventually, but it is a long way off. The NBA money machine for the near future will continue to buy the best talent. As long as everybody knows that the best talent is in the NBA, all of the other leagues will be looked at as sub-par. The fans will always want to watch the game played at it's highest level. The Euroleague is still a long way from that.

[metaldaze]

One day you will have a NBA Europe Stern is no fool unlike NFL Europe it will be a success. You already have some club teams with big arena plans, owners with deep pockets,large rabid fan base ready to spend all those euros on the product. This is a good thing for the game,fans and players everybody wins.