Chaos Revenant wrote:To me, there is a clear imbalance between perimeter play and post play. To win an NBA championship, it seems like one NEEDS a hall-of-fame caliber big-man, or an undisputed top 10 player of all time.
There is a very interesting article
here that discusses this same issue, talking about basically needing one of the best players of all-time in order to win a title.
So I have three questions.
1: What can general managers do to work around this, whether in terms of finding elite big man talent or building their teams to compensake for the lack thereof?
2: What about the NBA produces this apparent imbalance?
3: If the NBA adoped college/international rules, would this imbalance be rectified?
4: What factors would one use to scout potential elite post players? From what I know of it, it seems to be a crapshoot; a player has to have both "measureables" and "intangibles", otherwise they turn into Kwame Browns.

Mostly, you stockpile talent, try to take advantage of draft opportunities and look for key trades. The teams that you discussed primarily won titles on the teams that drafted them.
From 79-80 onward, have a look:
80 Magic
81 Bird
82 Magic
83 Sixers
84 BIrd
85 Magic
86 Bird
87 Magic
88 Magic
9 years, 1 team that won without drafted talent (neither Moses Malone nor Julius Erving were drafted by Philly).
89 Isiah
90 Isiah
91 Jordan
92 Jordan
93 Jordan
94 Hakeem
95 Hakeem
96 Jordan
97 Jordan
98 Jordan
10 years, each title won by teams with a centerpiece they drafted.
99 Duncan
00 Shaq/Kobe
01 Shaq/Kobe
02 Shaq/Kobe
03 Duncan
04 Pistons
05 Duncan
06 Wade/Shaq
07 Duncan
08 Boston
10 more years and less drafted talent aside from 4 years from Duncan and the Wade/Shaq pair (Shaq obviously a trade but Wade the centerpiece). The Lakers signed Shaq and acquired Kobe in a draft-day trade. Shaq was the primary star, so presumably he counts as 3 exceptions over the 10 years.
The Pistons didn't draft Billups, either Wallace or Rip and the Celtics added Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, neither of whom were drafted talent.
So if Duncan's titles and the Miami title are drafted talent, this past decade has been a 50/50 split... which still leaves the VAST preponderance of titles over the last 29 years belong to a centerpiece a team drafted. Think about that; in almost 3 decades, 6 teams (about 20%) have won without a centerpiece they drafted. 1 team in 5 has done it and there was a long gap between the first time it happened and it happening again (when it happened in a bunch).
As far as what produces the imbalance, big men take shots mostly closer to the basket and are therefore generally more efficient. They exert a big impact on a game through rebounding and help defense and radically alter the defensive alignment a team must play by sucking defenders away from the perimeter.
Some of these traits are ascribable to Michael Jordan during his two three-peats, since the triangle made extensive use of Scottie and MJ in the low-post the way it does with Kobe. The Triple-Post offense lives up to its name, in other words.
The idea is that you command the glass, you score efficiently and you reduce the other team's efficacy with good team defense and it's much more effective than relying on comparatively inefficient perimeter scorers as your centerpieces.
The NBA has a rectangular lane and no full zone rules, so unlike the FIBA game, it tends to emphasize low-post play as a major force, whereas perimeter play is considerably more prevalent in FIBA ball.
Of the NBA adopted the godawful international/college rules, the imbalance would not be corrected, it would be shifted to a perimeter-oriented imbalance, one that tends to slow down the game and almost eliminates the value of a really dangerous low-post scorer. The trapezoidal lane and zone rules radically alter the meaning of a low-block scorer and basically remove his usefulness because it's too difficult to consistently get him the ball. Having said that, part of the difference in the two major rules sets is that the NBA style tends to emphasize key players a lot more than team offense. Isolation scorers, be they perimeter- or post-oriented, are more common, whereas the scoring load (which is much reduced in general in FIBA) in the NBA.
Scouting potential post players, there are some key attributes but also several divisions of player.
You've got finesse (Al Jefferson) and power post players (Shaq), which differ noticeably, and then sort of hybrid guys like Duncan and Olajuwon.
General scouting tips look for a guy 6'10+ (Olajuwon 6'10, Duncan 6'11, Shaq 7'1, Ewing 7'0, D-Rob 7'1, Wilt 7'1+, Kareem 7'2+) with good mobility and cooridnation. You'd like him to be 240+ with broad shoulders and the sort of frame to be able to handle low-post play. Good wingspan helps, as does a strong base (e.g. powerful legs and lower torso); upper body can come with time but being around 240 is usually a good sign. Lighter guys will be looking for more athleticism, obviously, so you're talking about quick feet (up and down the court and laterally) with good body control and balance. Showing signs of being able to finish while taking contact is a good sign, as is a propensity to INITIATE contact, which is usually a good sign for drawing fouls. Someone like Al Jefferson, who typically shoots 50%+ and scores 20+ ppg these days, would be a lot better if he drew more fouls; that critical flaw is something that's holding back his overall potential, because his DrawF is terrible.
Vertical isn't critical; a guy who's 6'10 is generally going to have a standing reach around 9', give or take a few inches, which means it is nothing but a perfunctory effort to get up for a dunk. Important instead is how fast he can get to his peak vertical leap. 33" of vert does not deny a guy the ability to be a dominant post player (finesse, hybrid or power).
For a post guy, range is a secondary concern. As a hybrid or finesse guy, you want to see decent mechanics and the ability to shoot out to around 15 feet at least by the time you're drafting him. This isn't always the case (example: Karl Malone, who was more of a low-post guy when he was younger) but it's better to have some basic fundamental talent in this area than to have to work from the ground up. Power players, not so much. 60% from the line is more than acceptable, but of course guys with the physical makeup and skills to be pure power players are... pretty much Dwight and Shaq and Wilt before them. You need size, surpassing physical attributes and an incredibly aggressive mindset. Amare, were he to have emphasized low-post play rather than the high sidescreen, is another one with the sort of explosive athleticism, strength and aggression to involve himself in that kind of game. Kemp might've done, too, since he was a spectacular athlete.
Meantime, when you're watching the game, you're looking for a lot of differenr traits:
Awareness of the defense; is he usually aware of when the double-team is coming and does he have the timing to make a quick move or pass out before the double can really seal him in? What's his turnover rate like? Higher rates are more acceptable for power players, who are going into the teeth of a team's interior defense and usually draw more doubles.
What's his footwork like? Can he execute a basic spin, a drop-step, an up-and-under? Does he protect the ball well?
Scoring skills? How does he do it? Is it mostly dunks? Is it mostly short jumpers? Is it mostly short hook shots? Can he use both hands? Is he getting most of his points from one spot that a defense could attack? What do his scoring efficiency numbers look like on first touch? After a re-post? In the first 10 seconds of the offense and the last 10? What percentage of his buckets come off of transition baskets, alley-oops and rolls off of a pick (e.g. how much of his own offense does he create)?
Does he prefer to face-up or backdown? Does he understand how to lever his body in order to prevent himself from getting shoved off his spot or bumped while receiving a pass? This is a big reason why Kwame as a backdown center doesn't work; he's much more comfortable and capable facing up than backing down and doesn't bobble as many passes. It's an important skill.
What's his passing like? You're not really looking for no-lookers, behind-the-back passes and stuff like that here. Can he execute basic post passes? What does he look like in a pick-and-roll? A post split? Can he hit cutters slashing into the lane and shooters on the perimeter? How does he work in the re-post, where he kicks it out, gets better position and gets it back? Does he even do that?
If he has a little bit of range, what does he look like in the high post? Can he run hand-offs? Can he face up at the elbow?
It isn't a crapshoot to find a low-post guy, the problem is that GMs get wrapped up in certain attributes (height, athleticism) and college success without always taking into full consideration HOW these things happen. Or they think they can take someone with certain physical attributes and mould them into a backdown scorer (Kwame, though he has other issues too).
The European factor is one to consider; a lot of guys drafted are that because they have "versatility."
Post scorers aren't always very versatile. A lot of good ones had range only to the foul line or shortly past and were more comfortable beneath the foul line extended with their back to the basket than facing up from farther. The classic big men are actually not that common and come in waves. We're starting to see some potential now with Yao, Dwight, Al, Kaman, Okafor, JO (to an extent), Bynum, Oden and the tail-enders like Shaq and Duncan, as well as some more high post guys like Bogut, Brad Miller, etc and specialists like Haywood, Dalembert, Chandler and so forth.
But truly dominant post scorers are rare. By and large, you're talking about Kareem, Wilt, Shaq, Hakeem, Ewing, Moses and D-Rob. Bob Lanier was never a dominant offensive force and most of the other noteworthy names were the big shooters (Bells, McAdoo) or lesser guys like Issel, Daugherty, Neil Johnston, Artis Gilmore (efficient, but neither dominant nor prolific in that category). You get into the Mournings, the Sikmas, etc.
But do you truly need a "dominant" (and by implication "prolific") post scorer? No, Duncan has largely proved this. 4 titles in with 3 Finals MVPs (and 2-4 stolen DPOYs), Duncan has made it clear that a steady low-20s production with the occasional outburst is more than sufficient, you don't need a 26-30 ppg scorer down low to win.
The real issue is learning who has what capacities and then assembling a team around that player while giving him time to develop. Players are younger now because they don't do 3+ years of college with any frequency or consistency, so you need to give yourself longer timelines and put less pressure on them early in their careers. Too, hybrid types are more common, so you need to account for that fact in your gameplan and in your team plan.
The difficulty lies in dealing with the callow youth, putting the right pieces around him and working a reasonable timeline, as well as in finding a coach up to the task of properly utilizing such a player and helping him along his devleopmental track.
It's difficult to pull that all off, especially since it's noteworthy that you're still generally looking for one of the 20 best players in the history of the game, by and large, as well as healthy doses of luck and health (and fortuitous free agency scenarios).