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Josh Smith may indeed be the biggest steal of the entire free agent draft. Josh is 22 years old and will not turn 23 until the second month of next season. IF you place it into comparison Josh Smith would be just coming out of college. Josh has played at a level of 10.077 (2006) and 11.220 (2007/8) million splitting time at SF and PF.
Indicators from past Tier I players that were at a 10-11m play normally average a mininum of 14m a year from 22-27. Like many players Josh was playing for his second contract, but if he is signed for 58million over 5 (11.5m) he will undoubtedly be the steal of the free agent moneyball period.
He will be getting paid only for the production that he has done from age 21-22. Now with the prime of his career ahead he will only be paid like a valuable 6th man of a team.

Other Notable players that are producing 11m that are under 26. (the chart below failed to sort)




If you look at the chart above only Rudy Gay, Brandon Roy, and Josh Smith have any ceiling that appears over 13million per year. So while hte other players played and contributed to their teams as much. Either they have reached their potential or they are older and a 5year deal for over 12million does not seem condusive.

So, essentially, you're saying that even if Josh Smith doesn't progress at all, he's still getting market value.

i do feel player relations are very important, but on the business side, it looks like it worked out for the Hawks and did the right thing.

Kevin Martin 11M
Al Jefferson 13M
Emeka Okafor 12M
Luol Deng 11.8M
Andre Iguodala 11.8M (rumored to be similar to Deng)
Ben Gordon TBA
Devin Harris 8.4M
Josh Childress 12M
Andris Biedrins 10.3M
Monta Ellis 11.1M
Andrew Bogut 12M
Josh Smith 11.6M

mrhonline wrote:So, essentially, you're saying that even if Josh Smith doesn't progress at all, he's still getting market value.

Yes this is true, but what I am really saying is any 21-22yr that has come as far as Josh Smith has in the NBA still tends to trend upwards in every area. Their game becomes more defined and their defense becomes more noticeable and effective.

I am just saying this is the steal of the free agency period at 11million per. on a 22yr old that is proven commodity and has 10+years to only get better.

Sorry to break ur heart but CapNJack is 30 not 26, damn and wat a bargain at only 7 mill a year

Amen316 wrote:

Code: Select all

Josh Smith ATL 10.077 14.072 13.935 2006/7 season 21yrs
Josh Smith ATL 11.220 14.933 14.783 2007/8 season 22yrs

Josh Smith may indeed be the biggest steal of the entire free agent draft. Josh is 22 years old and will not turn 23 until the second month of next season. IF you place it into comparison Josh Smith would be just coming out of college. Josh has played at a level of 10.077 (2006) and 11.220 (2007/8) million splitting time at SF and PF.
Indicators from past Tier I players that were at a 10-11m play normally average a mininum of 14m a year from 22-27. Like many players Josh was playing for his second contract, but if he is signed for 58million over 5 (11.5m) he will undoubtedly be the steal of the free agent moneyball period.
He will be getting paid only for the production that he has done from age 21-22. Now with the prime of his career ahead he will only be paid like a valuable 6th man of a team.

Other Notable players that are producing 11m that are under 26.

Code: Select all

Brandon Roy POR 12.100 13.441 12.850
[b]Stephen Jackson GSW 11.998 11.699 10.147[/b]
Rashard Lewis ORL 11.779 11.939 11.284↔ consistent
Rajon Rondo BOS 11.637 10.638 11.785 ↔ Playing close to his potential
Jason Terry DAL 11.547 7.573 8.467
Chris Kaman LAC 11.422 12.685 11.383
Vince Carter NJN 11.276 10.444 9.657
Josh Smith ATL 11.220 14.933 14.787 ^ Potential
Tayshaun Prince DET 11.188 11.022 11.069
Devin Harris(Dal) DAL 11.180 7.061 6.472 (traded rest of formula NJ calc>)
Jason Kidd(Njn) NJN 11.170 10.479 8.047
Joe Johnson ATL 11.147 12.953 12.053
Rudy Gay MEM 11.108 13.571 13.077

If you look at the chart above only Rudy Gay, Brandon Roy, and Josh Smith have any ceiling that appears over 13million per year. So while hte other players played and contributed to their teams as much. Either they have reached their potential or they are older and a 5year deal for over 12million does not seem condusive.

Jason Kidd is under 26!? How old is Shaq then? 27 or something?

LLol my bad I forgot to put in the age bracket sort... it just listed everyone playing at an 11m per clip..

Btw: If you base all teams as being near to over salary cap then the following happens for Josh Smith
Josh Smith ATL 10.560 13.660 12.992 22.6
Which brings it down somewhat closer to what he signed for
This calc wouldve been 5yr / 64million for a RFA

Parasight wrote:Jason Kidd is under 26!? How old is Shaq then? 27 or something?

36, but knowing Shaq, he probably thinks he's just entering his prime.