Early prediction of win drops for 08/09

[toast]

The is kind of the opposite coin of the who has the biggest gain this year. Every year teams that people thought were guaranteed to repeat last years mark unexpectedly drop off. I really don't think it is that unexpected I just think that many media types lack the courage to go against status quo until it has already happened. Last year myself and a lot of people could see Miami falling in a big way. So who drops in wins this year during the regular season? This doesn't mean they don't make the playoffs necessarily. Here are my bold three that I think will have pretty big drop offs in wins.

Dallas
Someone made the argument last year when people were calling Miami old, that Dallas had the same average age. That was true then and now everyone is a year older and they traded there one youth Harris for a very old Kidd. But more than giving up on youth they gave away their one person with breakthrough speed. This Dallas team is slow. Now add to that virtually there entire main rotation is entering the black zone when production drops off, with the exception of Howard who is discontent and on the trade block. At the least I can see a drop off of 10 wins but squeeking into the playoffs. I also think they are the most likely to have an extreme Miami drop off and start trading parts halfway through the season.

Detroit
I know Piston fans are going to say that for seven years people have been predicting that Detroit would drop back and they haven't yet. Well for years my family was saying that my 87 year grandmother would go soon. She lasted longer than expected, but guess what she eventually died. Dumars is a smart man he sees this coming, and if he can work some magic and shake up the core I will take it back. What people are not looking at is the fact that Detroit has a pretty weak susceptible front line. Wallace and McDyess declined last year and are definitely hitting the black zone of production drop off. Niether are great rebounders (6.6, and 8.5 respectibly) and neither are centres. They could hold off the weak front court of the East for the most part last year, but with their decline and stronger frontcourts by the Sixers and the Raps I see it as a major weakness this year. Don't tell me you expect Kwame, or Maxiel to save the day.
I can see at least a 10-15 win drop off and being in the low middle of the playoffs. I don't understand why most people are saying they are an automatic second best in the East.

Finally - Boston
Just hear me out before you bite my head off. I am not saying that they won't make the playoffs or are even not heavy favourites to represent the East in the championship (though I don't think they will win it this year my bet is LA) Just a couple of things to consider.
- All teams drop off a little in the regular season after winning a championship, but with the big three and the desperation each had to finally win one I can see an even bigger drop off. They were intensely focused all year long, even with Garnett there is bound to be a tiny bit of a drop off. Now add to this the fact that they played 108 games last year.
- I totally see Garnett as Shaq the year he won it for Miami, because of the wins people aren't noticing the slight drop off he had during the year. He had a ten year low in PTs RB and ASS last year. Allen turned it up in the playoffs but had a bigger drop off. The fact is all three are in the declining age and will save it a little more for the playoffs
- What people were critizing them last year still has some validity. Boston's big three had a perfect storm of the big three being unusually healthy, the backups having great years, and everyone willing to totally set aside egos. It is quite possible that the big three go down for some time, and they have even weaker depth than last year. In the playoffs it won't matter, in the regular season it does.
I can totally see them droping back to the low 50's in wins this year and I wouldn't be shocked if they finished second overall in the East.

Tell me what you think and who you think will drop off.

[NO-KG-AI]

I see Boston dropping off, 66 wins is hard to match, and they are getting older, but you neglected to mention that KG dropped from 39 minutes per game to about 32, he really only dropped as a rebounder, per 36, the rest of his numbers are actually up from his last year in Minnesota.

I can see he, and especially Ray Allen having their regular season minutes cut even further, I don't see them dropping to the low 50's, because they are too good defensively, and still have 3 legit weapons offensively.

I think Golden State might have a fairly big drop without Baron, not only to man the point, but to cover the bigger guards for Monta.

This might also be the year San Antonio takes a big dip, but still be dangerous contenders... then again, they didn't win this year, so they are due up

[Don Draper]

Denver.

The should have very close to the worst defense in the NBA now Camby is gone. Also their offense isn't as good as everyone thinks.

Utah.

The are a team that has porous interior defenders. Deron Williams will be a beast but I see a drop off from Boozer. Not to mention they struggle against any team with an elite perimeter scorer. Not to mention they did nothing this season. I see them in the 7th or 8th spot in the west.

[Kosar86]

Boston, well, simply because 66 wins is a lot of wins.

Sacramento - Garcia, Thompson, Moore, SAR, BMiller, Williams, Hawes, KThomas, Greene; seriousley, that may be the worst front line in NBA history, no way they come close to 38 wins.

NJ - a lot of young guys in an improving east, could easily drop below 30 wins.

Denver - lost Camby and got nothing in return, not good.

[halfHAVOC]

nets, kings, nuggets

[Rodya]

Boston and Denver. Boston still nets at least 54 wins.

[iamworthy]

Spurs and Suns.

[RTM]

So you're saying the Pistons are an aging old woman?

Our front court isn't weak. Certainly rebounding has been an issue, but it seems to me you haven't really done your homework. Sheed's numbers last year were pretty much the same as they were the year before, and Dice's number actually went up (though that had to do with him being inserted in the starting lineup).

But what keeps our front court better than Toronto and Philly isn't that tandem, but rather, our depth. JO/Bosh and Brand/Daly are better, but neither really have backups (unless of course, Nathan Jawai and Reggie Evans are better than Maxiell, Amir, and Kwame). We have lots of bodies, and each has some skills/abilities (even Kwame).

I agree we won't win as many as last season, but this team is fully capable of another 50 win season, especially when you look at internal improvements with from guys like Stuckey, Afflalo, Max and Amir. I won't be so bold as to make any sort of playoff prediction (a 2nd round thumping wouldn't surprise me, but I HIGHLY doubt we go from winning 58 to as low as 43, as you suggest. Saying we would drop 4-8 wins is more realistic.

Now the teams I do see winning considerably less games are Denver, Dallas, and Golden State. Boston as well (though I don't think they'll be upset dropping from 66 wins to 56 or so).

[Adam1221]

Nets will win just as much as they did last year (which isnt good but it still wont change).

Dallas and Denver will take a big dip, GSW possibly too.

[maxwellcu]

Barring catastrophe, I expect the Nuggets to win roughly as man games this year as they did last year. Camby just isn't that good.

[b-ball forever]

Mavs

Just god-awful finish of a season last year, they'll play like that the whole year this time.
Resigning Diop on a massive contract and pickin up Gerald Green isn't gonna fix shiyt

[Walton'sBeard!]

Golden State comes to mind. Their recent success seemed to coincide with Baron's sudden streak of good health. Baron's gone and Monta will have a big load to carry. I don't think Maggette is a much of a positive pick up.

Denver for sure. One of the worst defensive teams loses one of the league's best defensive players... for nothing. That can't help. They looked exposed in the playoffs and I think that will carry over to next year.

I think Sacto will hang in that 30 win area. Not a great team, but not a huge drop in wins.

While I expect Phoenix and Dallas to be playoff teams, they both could be in for a tough season. Kidd and Shaq are declining rapidly and these teams will be leaning on them heavily. Does Nash have another premier season left in him? I could see either or both of these teams taking a 10 win drop.

[Jase]

Denver and Boston.

[Sloanfeld]

Utah.
I see them in the 7th or 8th spot in the west.

Are you a Blazers fan? ROFL

[10scott10]

warriors

[toast]

So you're saying the Pistons are an aging old woman?

Our front court isn't weak. Certainly rebounding has been an issue, but it seems to me you haven't really done your homework. Sheed's numbers last year were pretty much the same as they were the year before, and Dice's number actually went up (though that had to do with him being inserted in the starting lineup).

But what keeps our front court better than Toronto and Philly isn't that tandem, but rather, our depth. JO/Bosh and Brand/Daly are better, but neither really have backups (unless of course, Nathan Jawai and Reggie Evans are better than Maxiell, Amir, and Kwame). We have lots of bodies, and each has some skills/abilities (even Kwame).

I agree we won't win as many as last season, but this team is fully capable of another 50 win season, especially when you look at internal improvements with from guys like Stuckey, Afflalo, Max and Amir. I won't be so bold as to make any sort of playoff prediction (a 2nd round thumping wouldn't surprise me, but I HIGHLY doubt we go from winning 58 to as low as 43, as you suggest. Saying we would drop 4-8 wins is more realistic.

Now the teams I do see winning considerably less games are Denver, Dallas, and Golden State. Boston as well (though I don't think they'll be upset dropping from 66 wins to 56 or so).

A couple of points

"So you're saying the Pistons are an aging old woman?" If the medication fits.

My point being that the front court was barely adequate last year and 34 year olds drop in production, it is a statistical anomoly if they don't drop not the other way around. You are praying for the unexpected if you think otherwise. You make my point for me for Dice, he was inserted into the starting lineup as a 33 yr old because of the lack of options, and his effectiveness per 36min dropped. If you are making an aging 3rd big rotation player your starter that is a bad sign. Likewise using 5 men in the rotation is a bad not a good sign because it means that the strength of the main 3 rotation is not good enough. For the record though.
Toronto's main two backups
Bragnani 23min 10.2ppg 3.7rb, 1.1 ass .5bl
Humpries 14 min 5.7 ppg, 3.7rb, .4 ass .4 blk
Both are younger and have more upside.
Sixers
Evans 24 min 5.7 ppg 7.5 rb .8 ass .1 blk
Jason Smith 14.5 min 4.5 ppg 3 rb .3 ass .7bls
not to mention highly touted Marreese Speights as a rookie
Detroit
Maxiel 22 min 7.9 pts 5.3 rb .6 ass 1.1 blk
Brown (using his better LA stats) 22 min 5.7pts, 5.7 rb 1.2 ass .8 rb
They are older with less upside, having more minutes with similiar or worse production.

Even granting that they are the same it takes away your argument of Detroits greater front court depth compared to others.

A lot of teams have possible internal improvements, saying that Detroits are better is clear homerism.

The east as a whole is a lot stronger.

I haven't even focused on Billups or Hamilton who are 32 and 30 respectibly.

I stand by my argument. Is Detroit still a top 7 team in the east, yes. Are they the undisputed 2nd best in the east. Not if you look at it impartially.

[utahboozer]

Utah.
I see them in the 7th or 8th spot in the west.

Are you a Blazers fan? ROFL

Utah will be lucky to even make the playoffs this year.

1. Oden Roy Aldridge McMillan...
2. CP3 is HUNGRY for a 'ship
3. Kobe-you can't stop the Doberman
4. Kevin Durant is in a new town, and he will bring OKC a top-5 seed.
5. Did you forget that there's a new king of LA? B-b-b-b-Baron
6. Houston will not even flinch to get past the semis this year. Artest will put them over the top.
7. NEVER overlook the Spurs in an ODD YEAR
8. Shaq is hungry for a snaq, in the form of a ring
9. J-Kidd pulls a Favre, puts Dallas in the top 4 in the West.

I see Utah pulling off 37, maybe 38 wins. Road record 10-31 Home Record 27-14

[Tiggo Bitties]

Utah.
I see them in the 7th or 8th spot in the west.

Are you a Blazers fan? ROFL

Good guess but that poster hates the Blazers and calls us the most over hyped team in the L. Try again.

[BMF Jet Jaguar]

Utah.
I see them in the 7th or 8th spot in the west.

Are you a Blazers fan? ROFL

Utah will be lucky to even make the playoffs this year.

1. Oden Roy Aldridge McMillan...
2. CP3 is HUNGRY for a 'ship
3. Kobe-you can't stop the Doberman
4. Kevin Durant is in a new town, and he will bring OKC a top-5 seed.
5. Did you forget that there's a new king of LA? B-b-b-b-Baron
6. Houston will not even flinch to get past the semis this year. Artest will put them over the top.
7. NEVER overlook the Spurs in an ODD YEAR
8. Shaq is hungry for a snaq, in the form of a ring
9. J-Kidd pulls a Favre, puts Dallas in the top 4 in the West.

I see Utah pulling off 37, maybe 38 wins. Road record 10-31 Home Record 27-14

kd does not net a top 5 seed...

[fivas14]

Utah.
I see them in the 7th or 8th spot in the west.

Are you a Blazers fan? ROFL

I see Utah pulling off 37, maybe 38 wins. Road record 10-31 Home Record 27-14

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