NBA Top 125: Seth Partnow's Tiers

[Clyde Frazier]

Kawhi has no business being on the 2022 list given that he hasn't played in over a year. I feel like he gets a ton of benefit of the doubt of what he can be in the playoffs rather than what he actually is as a player who routinely misses half the season.

Right, I don't even see it as hating on Kawhi. I just think we need more information before being able to rank a player who's missed so much time. I felt the same way about Durant coming off the achilles tear, Klay after missing 2 years, etc.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I mean it is a projection for next year, I don't see the issue with giving Kawhi the benefit of the doubt.

Kawhi is #1 in 19-22 RAPM and #1 in DRIP (multi-year metric that is forward looking in projecting performance).

He has the track record to me of someone contending for best in the league and if you must rank injured players than so be it.

[NBA4Lyfe]

I'm sorry but I think this list is pretty bad. At some point you have to factor in decline for players that have shown it over a 1-2 year sample while dealing with both injuries and advanced age when they cross the 32-33 mark. Harden and CP3 as top 15 guys for next season simply does not compute for me nor does KD as a top 4 player and Kawhi as top 7. I feel like the whole point of these lists is just pointless clickbait tbh. None of these guys bring anything new in terms of evaluation and how they come to their rankings.

harden posted 22/10/8 on 58.8 true shooting with a miniscule 22% usage rate. Wait till you see him this year explode again

[MyUniBroDavis]

I mean it is a projection for next year, I don't see the issue with giving Kawhi the benefit of the doubt.

Kawhi is #1 in 19-22 RAPM and #1 in DRIP (multi-year metric that is forward looking in projecting performance).

He has the track record to me of someone contending for best in the league and if you must rank injured players than so be it.

You could probably make a decent argument that in the playoffs you’re taking a healthy Kawhi over anyone, even if might not personally agree with that

[Jaivl]

I mean it is a projection for next year, I don't see the issue with giving Kawhi the benefit of the doubt.

Kawhi is #1 in 19-22 RAPM and #1 in DRIP (multi-year metric that is forward looking in projecting performance).

He has the track record to me of someone contending for best in the league and if you must rank injured players than so be it.

You could probably make a decent argument that in the playoffs you’re taking a healthy Kawhi over anyone, even if might not personally agree with that

I would take three-armed Giannis over anyone, speaking of mythological creatures.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I mean it is a projection for next year, I don't see the issue with giving Kawhi the benefit of the doubt.

Kawhi is #1 in 19-22 RAPM and #1 in DRIP (multi-year metric that is forward looking in projecting performance).

He has the track record to me of someone contending for best in the league and if you must rank injured players than so be it.

You could probably make a decent argument that in the playoffs you’re taking a healthy Kawhi over anyone, even if might not personally agree with that

I would take three-armed Giannis over anyone, speaking of mythological creatures.

pause

[Jaivl]

You could probably make a decent argument that in the playoffs you’re taking a healthy Kawhi over anyone, even if might not personally agree with that

I would take three-armed Giannis over anyone, speaking of mythological creatures.

pause

Over the last 6 years, Kawhi has had 2 healthy playoff runs, while Giannis has played 0 seasons with three arms. It's not a big difference.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I would take three-armed Giannis over anyone, speaking of mythological creatures.

pause

Over the last 6 years, Kawhi has had 2 healthy playoff runs, while Giannis has played 0 seasons with three arms. It's not a big difference.

I think we have a misunderstanding of what I meant when I said pause

[LukaTheGOAT]

I would take three-armed Giannis over anyone, speaking of mythological creatures.

pause

Over the last 6 years, Kawhi has had 2 healthy playoff runs, while Giannis has played 0 seasons with three arms. It's not a big difference.

Which is probably why he isn't in Tier 1A-the injury concerns

Also pretty confident Giannis played with 3 legs in 21 which is how he was still able to play after injuring his leg in the ECF.

[AdagioPace]

taking inspiration from Jaivl's post, "Kawhi 20xx" is a so called "chimera" ( Χίμαιρα - chimaira) at this point. We don't even know if his knees last a couple month. Not saying his career his finished but this is the start of his quantum career management. Terms like "season" don't apply to him anymore.

[Dutchball97]

Kawhi is only behind MJ, LeBron and Mikan for career play-off WS/48. It's not for a lack of sample size either. He played 135 play-off games so far and is 18th in all-time play-off WS, with just 0.1 less WS than Hakeem.

Kawhi is likely never going to play more than 50-75% of a regular season again but if he somehow stays healthy throughout a post-season there aren't many players I'd take over him at the moment. I think he's still right up there with the likes of Giannis, Jokic and Curry.

[Clyde Frazier]

I mean it is a projection for next year, I don't see the issue with giving Kawhi the benefit of the doubt.

Kawhi is #1 in 19-22 RAPM and #1 in DRIP (multi-year metric that is forward looking in projecting performance).

He has the track record to me of someone contending for best in the league and if you must rank injured players than so be it.

That's fine. I'm saying don't rank players who've missed significant time due to major injuries. It's illogical in practice.

[sp6r=underrated]

I mean it is a projection for next year, I don't see the issue with giving Kawhi the benefit of the doubt.

Kawhi is #1 in 19-22 RAPM and #1 in DRIP (multi-year metric that is forward looking in projecting performance).

He has the track record to me of someone contending for best in the league and if you must rank injured players than so be it.

That's fine. I'm saying don't rank players who've missed significant time due to major injuries. It's illogical in practice.

You should rank em but they deserve major downgrades. Even including last year, playoff seeding is highly important for winning NBA Championships. This century top 2 seeds have won 3/4 of titles and final appearances.

And focusing on Kawhi's great per possession stats like LukaTheGoat misses the point. NBA seeds aren't awarded based on possession based stats when your stars are healthy.

Kawhi's inability to play in the RS, + high salary, basically locks most teams out of the seeds that have a realistic shot of competing for titles. He doesn't belong with the true franchise guys anymore. Those guys can be penciled in for most games comfortably before the season begins.

Kawhi can't.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I mean it is a projection for next year, I don't see the issue with giving Kawhi the benefit of the doubt.

Kawhi is #1 in 19-22 RAPM and #1 in DRIP (multi-year metric that is forward looking in projecting performance).

He has the track record to me of someone contending for best in the league and if you must rank injured players than so be it.

That's fine. I'm saying don't rank players who've missed significant time due to major injuries. It's illogical in practice.

You should rank em but they deserve major downgrades. Even including last year, playoff seeding is highly important for winning NBA Championships. This century top 2 seeds have won 3/4 of titles and final appearances.

And focusing on Kawhi's great per possession stats like LukaTheGoat misses the point. NBA seeds aren't awarded based on possession based stats when your stars are healthy.

Kawhi's inability to play in the RS, + high salary, basically locks most teams out of the seeds that have a realistic shot of competing for titles. He doesn't belong with the true franchise guys anymore. Those guys can be penciled in for most games comfortably before the season begins.

Kawhi can't.

High salary is irrelevant as Partnow has mentioned that the list does not consider contract but actual goodness.

Also I don't believe in the idea that Kawhi seeding stops teams for competing for titles.

16: 2nd seed, 67 win team

17: 2nd seee, 61 win team

19: the Raptors won a title as a #5 seed....

20: Clippers are the 2nd seed

21: Clippers are the 4th seed after dropping a spot likely on purpose to not play the Lakers

Seeding has marginal effect on championship odds based on the work of Ben Taylor and even if I did buy this criticism, the most likely contending teams are good quality without Kawhi and could garner a decent seed without him for some part of the season.

Saying he doesn't belong with true franchise guys anymore as if he once deserved that distinction but doesn't now, also doesn't really track with me when 2021 was arguably his overall peak to some due to his offense maybe peaking at this time.