Run DLC wrote:Kevin “GOAT” Durant
Can't quite say I agree (the lower games due to injury management seems like a major hurdle, as is potential off-season/Nets/trade drama), but love the enthusiasm and the nickname!
Like Durant, I also see LeBron and Steph lower in likelihood due to age, even if they're also among the top 6/
Not sure I see Giannis / Tatum having the narrative on their side after these playoffs. Tatum in particular seems a level below the top tier of players at least right now, though there's always a chance he takes the next step.
If Jokic were to win it again, the path would have to be: a massively improved team performance (largely from the return of Murray/etc.) on way to a top seed. But voter fatigue is a strong force.
Could Embiid break through? maybe, especially if the rejuvenated Harden/extra space gets the 76ers performing well. But, as always, injuries / total games are a concern for him.
Kawhi? The narrative might be on his side if the Clippers shoot up (along with healthier Paul George), but I have trouble imagining him playing enough games or playing well enough post-injury to merit the MVP. I'd love for him to prove me wrong though!
Luka seems like the most likely candidate to me personally. He made it to the WCF, and led the upset of the suns, so he has the narrative on his side. His stats and highlights are gaudy enough, and he's still on the right side of the aging curve to improve. His team has also been steadily improving as they gain experience. If they're close to a top seed, I have Luka as the favorite.
Dark horse pick: Ja Morant. I definitely don't see him in the top tier yet, but the media seems ready to anoint him, and that team's set for another great regular season.
Like normal, regardless of which individual is most likely, I see the two most important factors being 1) Narrative and 2) Near Top-seeded team (provided there's no exceptional cases like voter fatigue, low games, or having another MVP-caliber player on your team).
