Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #17 - 1976-77 Bill Walton

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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #17 

Post#41 » by Proxy » Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:20 am

Proxy wrote:
Proxy wrote:Forgot about the deadline again so my last two votes gonna be very brief
17. 1977 Bill Walton (Explained in previous threads).
18. 2020 Anthony Davis??? I'd say I've been pretty convinced by UnibrowDavis' explanations in previous threads(could link if needed), I still think alot of his conclusions are pretty extreme like the KD offensive value comparison but upon revisiting his playoff run I I think not only was he not really optimized offensively(honestly he may not have been all that much for full seasons since like 2015, and his value wasn't optimized in the 2020 RS defensively and you could see the massive difference in Lakers' scheme from the RS vs the PS), but also the majority of things that made it great were pretty replicable to me(so much reasons for his dominance besides shooting luck honestly where he underperformed from true mid range if anything - the interior scoring, some of the self creation, the off ball stuff and relentless opportunity hunting where is truly all-time in that regard have all been pretty consistent things to me and why he looks like a general PS riser in his prime in the small sample). Offers so much value even with his secondary skills and allows for so much scheme versatility.

Other players i've brought up: If I viewed players like Kobe or KD comfortably as all-defense type players at their peak I would probably vote them higher, but for right now I think Jokić's offensive value has lapped both of theirs and I don't see either as being more than a pretty marginal positive defensively in their peak seasons. Wade and Erving have a lot more scalability and portability concerns for me(looking absurd in some circumstances and having pretty predestrian value signals in others) and i'm not *entirely* sure they added more value in general either, I could definitely buy arguments for either to be voted in already though. Drob's offense against elite defenses(not just in a PS setting - it was a trend in the RS as well) is still pretty concerning to me and on the very low end of resilience for players considered this tier, his scoring drops off tremendously and it's not like he has the flexibility of someone like KG whose offense I believe is still so additive even when his scoring value gets blunted. We know he boasts insane value signals in his post-peak in the PS but i've talked about why I look at those with a grain of salt when thinking about his actual value in much earlier threads(collinearity), i'm not entirely how sure how resilient his defense was relative to his contemporaries but in the games i've studied he seemed pretty fine there. Dirk's argument at this point kinda feels like a worse version of Jokić's, I think his era allowed him to still be better defensively and keeps them in a similar tier for me as players, but the offensive gap is more distinct to me right now.

HMs: Drob, Jokić, Kobe, Wade, KD, Erving, Dirk(i've expressed some of my concerns with pretty much all of them in much earlier threads, less on Dirk though and don't have much time rn i'd probably go 08 Kobe, 17 KD, or 22 Jokić for 4th on my ballot though) - i'm not super confident in arguing for Mikan or Hawkins based on what I know about them right now


19. 2008 Kobe Bryant (2009, 2007, 2006, 2001?, 2003?)
I think I said it in a very earlier thread when Kobe first got brought up but out of the players in this group yet to be voted I believe he has the most proof of sustaining his regular season value into the playoffs over his prime sample size wise, and none of these players have created as much separation as regular season performers like say the top 12 peaks here have, besides Drob who I believe has potentially the poorest resilience here and gave reasons for why I believe his statistical profile is inflated and not truly reflective of his goodness in much earlier theads.

Proxy wrote:Kobe Bryant absurd offensive resilience('01-'10):

RS -> PS:
28 Pts Per 75 -> 29 Pts Per 75
+2.8 rTS% -> +3.3 rTS%
8.45 cTOV% -> 8.4 cTOV%
8.43 Box Creation -> 8.3 Box Creation
+3.4 Team rORTG -> 5.6 rORTG

48.95 O Load -> 47.6 O Load
1.13 ScoreVal -> 1.24 ScoreVal
.89 PlayVal -> .9 PlayVal
4.88 BPM -> 5.1 BPM
+7.5 On/Off -> 9.0 On/Off

Average defense played in that stretch(148 Games): Ranked #5 in the league, -3.2 rDRTG


With truly all-time resilience - maybe the best in this group to me for a player at his level besides 1976 Erving, fairly strong showcases of portability(similar value in all acts of his prime mainly just dipping in '04/'05 in very distinct circumstances) and no players here besides Robinson creating *enough* separation in terms of RS value from what I can see, the combination puts him at the top for me.

20. 2017 Kevin Durant (2018, 2016, 2014, 2019?? 2013??)
DraymondGold and I made brief comparisons between him and Kobe in earlier threads(I want to say in the 11th?) - their impact indicators are very similar in the regular season over their primes(KD peaking higher in 2016 according to APM and WOWY stuff, but Kobe having the edge prime-wise), and Kobe winning in the PS according to most hybrid metric stuff(KD still winning the box stuff).

They both have their advantages over eachother to me and I have it as mostly a toss up, thus having them both above anyone else so far(also believe they are both a little more portable than anyone i've mentioned in this group besides Robinson). I feel Durant is a better scorer, probably adds more spacing value seeing as he can play the 4/5, and probably unlocks a bit more defensive versatility on that end due to that as well from not bleeding significant value there at his peak.

Proxy wrote:I also agree KD offers so much value when not put in the role as a lead playmaker as a hyper efficient play finisher that can play the 4/5 and drag rim protectors away from the paint unlike most wings that it might bridge the gap. This production was just absurd and so versatile in 2017
Image

And it was also great in 2014
Image
And 2016, basically excellent in every category for his prime:
Image

His result of raising the Warriors to a +14.4 SRS level compared to the +10.4 in the 19 games in missed with a otherwise healthy roster in 2017 is probably one of the more impressive IRL ceiling raising results in history to me considering he generates most of his value from volume scoring, but it's hard to tell how much better many other players could do better in those circumstances(Like a Kobe).

I believe alot of the Kobe Vs KD debate depends on how much these are valued.
EDIT: Also 2008 Kobe for comparison(could grab other years if anyone is interested):
Image


His ability as such a hyper efficient play finisher is both portable and scalable, providing fairly high value on both the Thunder with Russ, with the Warriors, and on the Nets with Harden/Kyrie and i'm impressed by his ability to raise the ceiling of the Warriors(already being like a +12 team when healthy in 2016) as high as he did as primarily a volume scorer.

However Kobe has some advantages as a playmaker that made me lean towards preferring him as a primary

Proxy wrote:I'm not sure I agree with your conclusion that KD should be considered clearly ahead by the data in your other post, I think the nox box 1 numbers are capturing some of KD's problems that aren't really captured too well in the box score.

Some of the things I see on film are that are:
-I think he takes a hair longer than many other offensive players I think are on his level, maybe even slower than Dirk even when it comes to recognizing the optimal pass or play and misses many tight windows(corner passes are a big one).

-I believe he has court mapping issues and lacks diverse passing deliveries and the ability to make more than basic passing reads.

-I also feel he struggles to leverage his off ball scoring threat to pressure defenses within the flow of an offense(ex: doesn't really screen that much, and doesn't really fight as hard for little advantages for position in the post or off the ball like a Kobe or Bird that generate small advantages), he also occasionally gets stuck between scoring and passing modes but I think he got better at balancing the two the further down his career.

The very clear difference in how box 1 number metrics and pure APM metrics portray him over his prime give me a little bit of concern when concluding his profile should be looked at as more impressive. I will also say Kobe didn't play alongside a mega ball dominant player like Russ(those ball dominant high volume players tend to perform pretty well in those metrics) for most his prime to take away some of the credit like KD.

Otoh I think some of those OKC teams were extremely poorly suited when it came to optimizing either KD's(and Russ') offensive value and yet their PS team results together were still fairly impressive in the playoffs for some of those years. I could not buy those teams as being viable in the modern NBA.

In 48 games from 2013 to 2016 they had a +5.25 rORTG on very heavily defensively minded teams running up to 4 non-high volume 3 point shooters around KD at times, and +8 PS Net Rating, and before that, from 2010 to 2012 they had a +6.73 rORTG and +7.1 Net Rating in 43 games, and this was before his peak, and before Russ or Harden really broke out as stars.

Showing how on a bit more balanced rosters he could honestly lead you to some pretty impressive offensive results as a very clear 1A offensively.


On all reports i've seen, Kobe grew as a defensive communicator before the 2007 season and is probably a more schematically sound defender than KD, his main problem being motor related(but I also don't think it was only due to offensive load by this point, I wish he had another lung or something), I see his communication as being fairly additive in most circumstances. EDIT: Not to say they don't have other advantages over eachother, I just don't hsvr time to go even more in depth

I would probably give KD an edge in portability and scalability, but I see Kobe is still being probably more resilient in a deep playoffs run setting generally due to his playmaking. Overall I see them both being fairly similar in value to eachother on both ends(i'd probably go Kobe offensively, and Durant defensively). My choice is Kobe by a hair because I think there are very slightly more realistic team circumstances overall in a normal league in which I think he'd be a higher value add in a playoff setting, and decided to go with what I feel are their most complete versions as players, just ignore the ? mark years honestly but they're there for tie purposes.
Image
AEnigma wrote:Arf arf.
Image

trex_8063 wrote:Calling someone a stinky turd is not acceptable.
PLEASE stop doing that.

One_and_Done wrote:I mean, how would you feel if the NBA traced it's origins to an 1821 league of 3 foot dwarves who performed in circuses?
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #17 

Post#42 » by capfan33 » Sun Aug 14, 2022 3:02 pm

Proxy wrote:
Proxy wrote:
Proxy wrote:Forgot about the deadline again so my last two votes gonna be very brief
17. 1977 Bill Walton (Explained in previous threads).
18. 2020 Anthony Davis??? I'd say I've been pretty convinced by UnibrowDavis' explanations in previous threads(could link if needed), I still think alot of his conclusions are pretty extreme like the KD offensive value comparison but upon revisiting his playoff run I I think not only was he not really optimized offensively(honestly he may not have been all that much for full seasons since like 2015, and his value wasn't optimized in the 2020 RS defensively and you could see the massive difference in Lakers' scheme from the RS vs the PS), but also the majority of things that made it great were pretty replicable to me(so much reasons for his dominance besides shooting luck honestly where he underperformed from true mid range if anything - the interior scoring, some of the self creation, the off ball stuff and relentless opportunity hunting where is truly all-time in that regard have all been pretty consistent things to me and why he looks like a general PS riser in his prime in the small sample). Offers so much value even with his secondary skills and allows for so much scheme versatility.

Other players i've brought up: If I viewed players like Kobe or KD comfortably as all-defense type players at their peak I would probably vote them higher, but for right now I think Jokić's offensive value has lapped both of theirs and I don't see either as being more than a pretty marginal positive defensively in their peak seasons. Wade and Erving have a lot more scalability and portability concerns for me(looking absurd in some circumstances and having pretty predestrian value signals in others) and i'm not *entirely* sure they added more value in general either, I could definitely buy arguments for either to be voted in already though. Drob's offense against elite defenses(not just in a PS setting - it was a trend in the RS as well) is still pretty concerning to me and on the very low end of resilience for players considered this tier, his scoring drops off tremendously and it's not like he has the flexibility of someone like KG whose offense I believe is still so additive even when his scoring value gets blunted. We know he boasts insane value signals in his post-peak in the PS but i've talked about why I look at those with a grain of salt when thinking about his actual value in much earlier threads(collinearity), i'm not entirely how sure how resilient his defense was relative to his contemporaries but in the games i've studied he seemed pretty fine there. Dirk's argument at this point kinda feels like a worse version of Jokić's, I think his era allowed him to still be better defensively and keeps them in a similar tier for me as players, but the offensive gap is more distinct to me right now.

HMs: Drob, Jokić, Kobe, Wade, KD, Erving, Dirk(i've expressed some of my concerns with pretty much all of them in much earlier threads, less on Dirk though and don't have much time rn i'd probably go 08 Kobe, 17 KD, or 22 Jokić for 4th on my ballot though) - i'm not super confident in arguing for Mikan or Hawkins based on what I know about them right now


19. 2008 Kobe Bryant (2009, 2007, 2006, 2001?, 2003?)
I think I said it in a very earlier thread when Kobe first got brought up but out of the players in this group yet to be voted I believe he has the most proof of sustaining his regular season value into the playoffs over his prime sample size wise, and none of these players have created as much separation as regular season performers like say the top 12 peaks here have, besides Drob who I believe has potentially the poorest resilience here and gave reasons for why I believe his statistical profile is inflated and not truly reflective of his goodness in much earlier theads.

Proxy wrote:Kobe Bryant absurd offensive resilience('01-'10):

RS -> PS:
28 Pts Per 75 -> 29 Pts Per 75
+2.8 rTS% -> +3.3 rTS%
8.45 cTOV% -> 8.4 cTOV%
8.43 Box Creation -> 8.3 Box Creation
+3.4 Team rORTG -> 5.6 rORTG

48.95 O Load -> 47.6 O Load
1.13 ScoreVal -> 1.24 ScoreVal
.89 PlayVal -> .9 PlayVal
4.88 BPM -> 5.1 BPM
+7.5 On/Off -> 9.0 On/Off

Average defense played in that stretch(148 Games): Ranked #5 in the league, -3.2 rDRTG


With truly all-time resilience - maybe the best in this group to me for a player at his level besides 1976 Erving, fairly strong showcases of portability(similar value in all acts of his prime mainly just dipping in '04/'05 in very distinct circumstances) and no players here besides Robinson creating *enough* separation in terms of RS value from what I can see, the combination puts him at the top for me.

20. 2017 Kevin Durant (2018, 2016, 2014, 2019?? 2013??)
DraymondGold and I made brief comparisons between him and Kobe in earlier threads(I want to say in the 11th?) - their impact indicators are very similar in the regular season over their primes(KD peaking higher in 2016 according to APM and WOWY stuff, but Kobe having the edge prime-wise), and Kobe winning in the PS according to most hybrid metric stuff(KD still winning the box stuff).

They both have their advantages over eachother to me and I have it as mostly a toss up, thus having them both above anyone else so far(also believe they are both a little more portable than anyone i've mentioned in this group besides Robinson). I feel Durant is a better scorer, probably adds more spacing value seeing as he can play the 4/5, and probably unlocks a bit more defensive versatility on that end due to that as well from not bleeding significant value there at his peak.

Proxy wrote:I also agree KD offers so much value when not put in the role as a lead playmaker as a hyper efficient play finisher that can play the 4/5 and drag rim protectors away from the paint unlike most wings that it might bridge the gap. This production was just absurd and so versatile in 2017
Image

And it was also great in 2014
Image
And 2016, basically excellent in every category for his prime:
Image

His result of raising the Warriors to a +14.4 SRS level compared to the +10.4 in the 19 games in missed with a otherwise healthy roster in 2017 is probably one of the more impressive IRL ceiling raising results in history to me considering he generates most of his value from volume scoring, but it's hard to tell how much better many other players could do better in those circumstances(Like a Kobe).

I believe alot of the Kobe Vs KD debate depends on how much these are valued.
EDIT: Also 2008 Kobe for comparison(could grab other years if anyone is interested):
Image


His ability as such a hyper efficient play finisher is both portable and scalable, providing fairly high value on both the Thunder with Russ, with the Warriors, and on the Nets with Harden/Kyrie and i'm impressed by his ability to raise the ceiling of the Warriors(already being like a +12 team when healthy in 2016) as high as he did as primarily a volume scorer.

However Kobe has some advantages as a playmaker that made me lean towards preferring him as a primary

Proxy wrote:I'm not sure I agree with your conclusion that KD should be considered clearly ahead by the data in your other post, I think the nox box 1 numbers are capturing some of KD's problems that aren't really captured too well in the box score.

Some of the things I see on film are that are:
-I think he takes a hair longer than many other offensive players I think are on his level Dirk when it comes to recognizing the optimal pass or play and misses many tight windows.

-I believe he has court mapping issues and lacks diverse passing deliveries and the ability to make more than basic passing reads.

-I also feel he struggles to leverage his off ball scoring threat to pressure defenses within the flow of an offense(ex: doesn't really screen that much, and doesn't really fight as hard for little advantages for position in the post or off the ball like a Kobe or Bird that generate small advantages), he also occasionally gets stuck between scoring and passing modes but I think he got better at balancing the two the further down his career.

The very clear difference in how box 1 number metrics and pure APM metrics portray him over his prime give me a little bit of concern when concluding his profile should be looked at as more impressive. I will also say Kobe didn't play alongside a mega ball dominant player like Russ(those ball dominant high volume players tend to perform pretty well in those metrics) for most his prime to take away some of the credit like KD.

Otoh I think some of those OKC teams were extremely poorly suited when it came to optimizing either KD's(and Russ') offensive value and yet their PS team results together were still fairly impressive in the playoffs for some of those years. I could not buy those teams as being viable in the modern NBA.

In 48 games from 2013 to 2016 they had a +5.25 rORTG on very heavily defensively minded teams running up to 4 non-high volume 3 point shooters around KD at times, and +8 PS Net Rating, and before that, from 2010 to 2012 they had a +6.73 rORTG and +7.1 Net Rating in 43 games, and this was before his peak, and before Russ or Harden really broke out as stars.

Showing how on a bit more balanced rosters he could honestly lead you to some pretty impressive offensive results as a very clear 1A offensively.


On all reports i've seen, Kobe grew as a defensive communicator before the 2007 season and is probably a more schematically sound defender than KD, his main problem being motor related(but I also don't think it was only due to offensive load by this point, I wish he had another lung or something), I see his communication as being fairly additive in most circumstances.

I would probably give KD an edge in portability and scalability, but I see Kobe is still being probably more resilient in a deep playoffs run setting generally due to his playmaking. Overall I see them both being fairly similar in value to eachother on both ends(i'd probably go Kobe offensively, and Durant defensively). My choice is Kobe by a hair because I think there are very slightly more realistic team circumstances overall in a normal league in which I think he'd be a higher value add in a playoff setting, and decided to go with what I feel are their most complete versions as players, just ignore the ? mark years honestly but they're there for tie purposes.
Image



Great post and as someone who isn't a Kobe fanboy (but also not high on Durant), I feel more comfortable with Kobe in most team compositions in the playoffs. On the Warriors or some obscene situation like that Durant's better, but in most situations I think Kobe has a much more well-rounded and resilient skillset even if his offensive ceiling might be a bit capped.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #17 

Post#43 » by LA Bird » Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:26 pm

Here are the results for round 17

Winner: 77 Walton

There were 17 voters in this round: AEnigma, Dutchball97, Ron Swanson, Samurai, SickMother, iggymcfrack, CharityStripe34, 70sFan, falcolombardi, capfan33, ceoofkobefans, trelos6, ardee, trex_8063, f4p, DraymondGold, Proxy

A total of 31 seasons received at least 1 vote: 06 Bryant, 06 Wade, 07 Bryant, 08 Bryant, 09 Bryant, 09 Wade, 10 Wade, 11 Nowitzki, 14 Durant, 16 Durant, 17 Durant, 17 Leonard, 18 Durant, 19 Leonard, 20 Davis, 50 Mikan, 51 Mikan, 58 Pettit, 59 Pettit, 62 Pettit, 68 Hawkins, 76 Erving, 77 Walton, 79 Malone, 81 Erving, 82 Malone, 83 Malone, 93 Barkley, 94 Robinson, 95 Robinson, 96 Robinson

Top 5 seasons
77 Walton: 0.816 (230-52)
09 Wade: 0.793 (241-63)
08 Bryant: 0.753 (189-62)
06 Wade: 0.748 (190-64)
76 Erving: 0.717 (172-68)
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #17 - 1976-77 Bill Walton 

Post#44 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Aug 15, 2022 6:48 pm

Wanted to jump in and say 2 things:

1. Yay Walton! Glad he's in. Glad he's getting his respect.

2. I've been AWOL lately and I expect that to continue for a while, so thank you LA Bird and everyone else for your forbearance.

I had earlier talked about me re-evaluating some things, and that's part of what's going on here. Additionally, I'm a teacher about to start the school year, and while on any given day that might affect the entirety of my posting on RealGM, it affects the stuff I'm still chewing on more.

So keep up the good work guys. I expect I'll get my head back in the game in the near future.
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