Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 - 1993-94 David Robinson

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AEnigma
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 - 1993-94 David Robinson 

Post#101 » by AEnigma » Wed Aug 24, 2022 9:38 am

DraymondGold wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:Not making "a claim that nobody made," providing more information to someone who openly mentioned statistics. There's a pretty clear difference, and the intention of my post was pretty obviously the latter. You always assume the worst in your opponents. It's a shame really...

What is the difference? Imagine if every time you mentioned a player’s defence I came in with a random list of players with a high DRAPM. Because you know, you mentioned defence.
What's the difference between providing statistical information when somebody mentioned statistics and replying to a claim nobody made? Well, no-more-rings asked Why Nash was being ranked so low given his goat-level offensive stats. He proposed it could be defense and a lack of reliance on team offensive rating. I supplemented his comment with additional information, saying that although he may have goat-level offensive stats, he doesn't have goat-level overall stats, or even necessarily clearly better stats than the players we're discussing alongside him.

That wasn't a claim nobody made. Somebody asked a question, and I replied with relevant information. Seems pretty simple :D

The only person in the conversation who seems to rank players based on their sum “advanced stats” is you. That is not really a response to anything, especially not a rhetorical question pretty blatantly setting up that Ortg quip, unless your brain is just wired to look for any possible connection to those stats.

And for the record: only one of us has provided play-by-play "on-court analysis" in this project.... and it wasn't you :wink:

And such a critical analysis it was.
Welp, another discussion gone with another sarcastic comment from you. Oh well

I said I would be interested in you applying as critical a lens to Robinson as you did to Giannis (which you were called out for), but when one uses an excessively critical lens and the other is almost wholly glowing, seems like, per usual, bending to an already decided conclusion. Even if subconsciously. Being critical in itself is fine; your Kawhi WCF viewing has a useful place in disrupting some of the narrativising around that run, even if I imagine some could also see it as excessive. I have followed along with critical Jordan watches that were probably excessive but pretty entertaining in how they upset the fan squad. But if that eye becomes softer on preferred players, well, then it kind-of loses any shine of possible objectivity.

I have a challenge for you Enigma. By memory, we've had 4 discussions. You've been sarcastic, straw-manned / blatantly misconstrued my comments, and outright insulted me in 3/4 of those conversations. The only conversation you didn't was when you said you'd respond later. One conversation (25% of our discussions so far) was rude enough to merit a moderator warning.

Here's my challenge for you: have one conversation with me without being resorting to personal attacks, sarcasm, or straw-manning. Just one.

I guess we'll see if this can happen. I've never understood what someone gains by resorting to sarcasm or personal attacks or intentionally misconstruing another person's intentions, but I guess that's just not my style.

No your style is to insert a bunch of “advanced stats” into conversations with people who have consistently criticised your excessive reliance on them. Where is the discussion in that. Exactly what type of dialogue were you expecting by coming in with “ackshually in your conversation about Nash and Harden these other unmentioned numbers do not like Nash as much as all these other non-Harden players”. Are you sincerely interested in a back-and-forth or engaging with my intentions, or do you just want to continue to preach the gospel of AuPM and PIPM? Because time and time again, seems like your willingness to “discuss” dies as soon as that gospel is rejected. I know f4p disagrees with my approach, but at least he seems legitimately interested in learning about alternative views.

There's a difference between using advanced stats for my own votes and forcing others to follow the gospel.

I do the former, and I've openly stated what my criteria are. I do not do the latter, nor do I force anyone to.

When people quote stats (like no-more-rings above), I add my statistical analysis. When people misuse stats or have a preference for PER of all stats, sure, I propose that they instead follow better stats (what you disparagingly call the "gospel")... and justify this by noting that plus minus stats are what actual NBA analysts use and they're better connects to winning than PER. But that's not forcing anyone to change their criteria.

Who said forcing? Were you under the impression I had some deep concern about anyone being swayed? Always such curious choice of language, ah but you know me, so negative, must be a coincidence every time…

When people quote stats (like no-more-rings above), I add my statistical analysis.

See: relevance.
For whom is it being added when you are the only one making it a foundation of your rankings?

When people misuse stats

Lmao, you mean like confusing impact for absolute quality independent of team reliance?

I propose that they instead follow better stats (what you disparagingly call the "gospel")... and justify this by noting that plus minus stats are what actual NBA analysts use

There is not really anything to suggest most front offices are checking Backpicks in their player assessment, even if you can find some comments about which metric an executive feels does reflect their own models a bit better. DARKO or EPM maybe has some value in their intended purpose of potentially predicting career arcs, but you have not really been using either, and there too I have not really heard of front offices using those. And outside that, why would we care? Kind-of seems like you mostly would mean Ben Taylor — do you think here on RealGM he is a mystery?

If you do legit film analysis, great. If you value defensive more or offense more, great. So long as you justify it well and make reasonable conclusions from those principles, that's fine. That's not to say I won't ever disagree with someone.... but disagreement can be healthy. You certainly disagree with enough people, presumably you know that!

You say my "willingness to 'discuss' dies as soon as the gospel is rejected". Every single time I've ended a conversation with you, I've made it clear this is not the case. I challenge you to find a single other poster who shares this oddly adversarial opinion of me. I've discussed other issues with other posters and "engaged with their intentions" plenty of times throughout the project, as I will continue to do.

Where my willingness to discuss with you "dies" is when you insist on using sarcasm, strawmannirg, and personal insults. Stop doing that, and I'll engage with your posts. I've now made this clear in 4/4 of our discussions. Hopefully the 5th will be productive...

Edit: I think my last sentence may come across as snide or rude without making the tone clear. To be clear, I'm being sincere when I say that! You do offer good points, and I think we both have the potential to challenge each other's perspectives in a way that's healthy and fun for both of us. But as I've said, that productive discussion requires treating each other with respect, which is really all I'm asking of you, and frustratingly I'm still asking that of you in our 4th/5th discussion lol

Ah you find it frustrating, interesting.

I am curious: Do you find this cycle productive, where you tag me in a comment referencing numbers that either I or someone else in the conversation were not using or otherwise openly spoke against and then do not continue to discuss anything of substance because you were offended by the ensuing tone of dismissal? Numerous criticisms left abandoned and unaddressed, until next time, when they can go ignored in favour of starting out the exact same way. Enriching stuff.

From my perspective, this cycle must be productive in some sense to justify the constant repeats, but all I really see being produced is a retread of the usual sermon. So then my question becomes — and terribly uncharitable, I know — is the goal a dialogue, in which case this approach makes zero sense, or simply a production of the sermon itself, with no interest as to the aftermath. That is not my idea of “respect”; I at least can be bothered to read your posts and make an effort to remember what they say about how you are valuing a player.

EDIT — Some examples of critically minded (1995) Robinson film assessments which would seem to contradict your glowing assessment:
Elgee wrote:In G2 San Antonio doubled Hakeem furiously. Sometimes it was 3 guys. Dude set up his teammates for 13 open shots off of this action! That's an absurd number because he also took 31 shots! One of the issues was Hakeem would quickly spin away from the double to his baseline bread and butter. He went quickly - it was devastating and difficult to defend. Interestingly, Robinson created essentially no offense off of doubles for the Spurs.
kaima wrote:On offense, Robinson was trying to play against a collapsing defense with, far too often, faceup drives that either left him with a shot he was incapable of making or a bad pass that was a likely turnover. He had no back to the basket game which, against a defense that's by definition and design paint-oriented, made it the wrong answer to a remedial math question. A real post player, even with a swarming defense coming at or for him, can find a way to make reads and create some positive result in individual or team counterpoint; Robinson spent the series panicked, because his athleticism could not solve the problem. He'd go into the post, receive a pass, and pass it back out almost immediately. Why? Because nothing easy would come, and he had no post game to work with. His jumper was fundamentally shaky. He had no real go-to moves. He wasn't good at all at battling for position, ala Shaq or Karl, and then making an explosive move from the low post to the rim. He was mediocre at sealing his man and receiving a lob. Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
And, as nail (in the coffin, through the heart) or lynchpin to all this, he was a lacking passer. With the defense in a collapse mode, you would think that Robinson's assist numbers would be decent, yet he produced at the worst rate of any of Olajuwon's post opponents with a 2.6 average. But that's only half the story, as he averaged 6.25 turnovers over the 4 losses. The two games the Spurs won, he averaged one turnover. His assist/TO ratio in the four losses was a 0.42. By comparison, Malone averaged a 1.36 on A/TO ratio, Barkley a 1.15, Olajuwon (in the SA series, in this case) a 1.19 and Shaq a 1.19. So we've got another key stat as to W/Ls, and it's centered, appropriately, on Robinson. Now, a mediocre or even bad passing big man could be defensible if he had fundamental talent for any real type of post play. Unfortunately, this is a non-starter for Robinson. Meaning that another star, having a ridiculously bad series passing the ball, could a find a way to create offense for his team that doesn't lead directly back to his statline; rotational feeds, where it's passed out of the post and moved around would be an easy example. But because of Robinson's other limitations, this type of offensive creation is not likely to be there.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #20 

Post#102 » by MyUniBroDavis » Wed Aug 24, 2022 10:27 am

f4p wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:I’ll respond more in-depth later, but the main thing rotation wise was Ryan Anderson leaving the rotation and then shortening it, they didn’t go all defensive no offense all of a sudden lol.


i mean sure, teams shorten playoff rotations, but the cumulative effect of no ryan anderson (a 30 foot 3 point shooting PF), no nene, less green, and mbah-a-moute (best 2-man +/- with harden in 2018 i believe) was a lot less of the 2018 regular season offense on the court.

The “rockets had to play it tough!” Narrative has always been absurd considering their offense was literally the exact same as they played it all season. The rockets offense is based on 5 out or 4 out 1 in iso, and hardens ability to score effectively off of that. (Well harden and Paul).


i mean we were playing arguably the most talented team ever and trying to stop their ridiculous offense. and they just so happened to have the #1 playoff defense as well. our regular season offense wasn't nearly as iso iso iso as that series from what i remember. we ran a lot of stuff in the regular season against the regular defenses of the league. it's not like it's crazy to think we showed up against a crazy good opponent who presents all sorts of crazy challenges and tried to be as extreme as we could to cope with them.


At the end of the day, impact should be seen as performance driven, and over long samples that holds true. Over a small sample like a series it can be a signal, in terms of, hey this guys box score numbers weren’t that great but their offense popped off, or this guy scored so well but the team didn’t succeed much, but over a series you should be able to come to your own conclusions based off watching what happened


ok but what happened is the rockets played good D and harden put up 28.7/6/6 against an elite defense and nearly beat an unbeatable team, despite not having his 2nd best player for 2 games. 30,000 foot view that seems obviously very good. steph put up 25/6.6/5.7 on 58 TS%, which means his TS% actually fell off a little more than harden's. it was a tough series. if you want better than 28.7/6/6 then you are looking at a pretty short list of players. and apparently even one of the guys on that short list (lebron) couldn't figure out how to translate that to wins against that juggernaut.


The offensive system is based upon the rockets creating high leverage iso situations for Harden, letting teams defend him on an island so he can dominate 1v1 or make the right read as a passer, and getting switches so he can get favorable matchups.

You control what happens when you are on the court

This is quite literally exactly what they did during the Warriors series as well. It’s not as if harden wasn’t getting those switches at all either, I would be suprised if less than half of hardens on ball half court plays where he scored or created a shot for a teammate where there wasn’t a super clear breakdown unrelated to the play wasn’t on Curry/bell/looney.


ok, and lot's of people get switches. the warriors had the #1 playoff defense for a reason. because they can make most situations tough. it's not like you get iso'd on bell and the other 4 warriors just stand and look (sometimes bell just blatantly fouls you and scott foster ignores it, but i'm not bitter).


Like it’s ridiculous to say that the rockets defense was possible because harden was missing shots he usually made offensively running the same things he usually did, it’s such an attempt to explain a process through results rather than the other way around because it makes literally 0 sense when you think about it.


i don't know where i said that at all. i said we were willing to live with a more iso heavy (even than normal), less offensively-slanted roster (i.e. less spacing) in a similar approach to what lebron went through in 2015 without kyrie and love. even more iso, against maybe the best defense in the league, with less spacing than normal, with chris paul missing 2 games is asking for a decrease in efficiency, with the hope it is cancelled out by better defense.

“Yeah so the rockets decided to do the exact same thing they always did on offense but because they are so smart they decided to miss shots so the Warriors would be mentally rattled and miss their own shots”


huh?

To extend that to, therefore his offensive struggles were actually part of the gameplan is absurd.


i extended it to that we were willing to live with less offense (similar to 2015 cleveland, who did it of injury necessity and not roster and ridiculous opponent necessity) to try to get a better overall result.


When it comes to like, literally a series, what happens on the court might not show up in the impact data. In this case, harden being a +15.5 was more so how bad the offense was with him off the court than how good it was witth him on the court, which makes sense given the construction of the team is based on enhancement and fit vs in a vacuum goodness, and that they aren’t really immune at all to mismatch hunting other than being good at sending help (which the rockets counter well with anyways)


i mean i have someone telling me chris paul is the solution to all of life's problem and explains why harden's team was good. now harden's team is supposed to fall off without him, even though chris paul running the backups is seemingly the best possible way to avoid that happening. if cp3 also failed against the warriors defense, then presumably they were just very tough and it helps explain why they went 28-3 against everyone else.


His 2019 series was great, and I do think that I would put 2019 harden over Nash without too much trouble, and he’s probably somewhere in this range for me. But I think we do need to realize his volume is so high because how that team is constructed. He wasn’t scoring that much out of necessity it was by design, it’s probably the most heliocentric offensive team style ever, in terms of isolation slashing 5 out or 4 out 1 in.

I agree he’s a bit disrespected.


but why was it not out of necessity? it's not like MDA just wanted to see how much harden could score. i'm pretty sure in 2019, james harden iso's were more efficient than the best offense in the league. and his team sucked before he started averaging 40, then he went crazy and they started winning. i'm not sure less volume wouldn't quickly result in less wins.


I’m ngl this just gave me flashbacks of when someone was saying some stuff after the series, didn’t mean to put words in your mouth lol sorry

1. Ryan Anderson sure, but green played about the same minutes you’d expect considering a shortened rotation. Nene was hardly anything crazy offensively, and while mbah moute was a loss he was better defensively than offensively, just really good on D.

Outside of Anderson I don’t think they played defensive lineups as much as them shortening their rotation.

2. The rockets weren’t a team that didn’t iso much and suddenly started isoing a lot in the playoffs. Harden isoed more than I think 27 of the nba teams by himself did.

That cranked up in the postseason sure, but isos for stars go up in the post season in general, and again they’re offensive bread and butter is spaced out isolation or pick and roll.

3. My issue is we’re giving harden way too much credit for the rockets winning here. They were great defensively, they were poor offensively. Harden averaged 29-6-6 on 53.8TS. Take out game 1, that drops to 50.5, with his series high outside of g1 being above league.

In the wins, he wasn’t particularly great either, in those three wins overall he averaged more turnovers than assists, and shot under 50TS overall.

They had a really good defensive gameplan and defended really well, but their offense was pretty bad.

I think Curry wasn’t all too great that series lol, switch defenses aren’t great for him sometimes, although it’s not like he’s exposed or anything

3.
Harden gets like the best switches more than anyone did at that time though, which is obviously a testement to his ability to get those but also the rockets ability to do so

The rockets guys are very much the guys that can shoot without any space at all, and they did that a lot so Warriors weren’t really stunting on drives much, the most would be leaving the inside man but hardens really good at finding the lob pass there

4. The roster was roughly the same outside of Ryan Anderson and shortened rotations though, and hardens effeciency was the same pre Paul and post paul. Them running more iso being the reason they were worse off would be more valid maybe if it was harden constantly isoing against iggy/klay/durant and not wasting time to get a switch for whatever reason, but all they did was play their regular brand of basketball, mismatch hunting and all of that.

In any case, almost all of hardens offense specifically comes from on ball isolation and pick and roll, so him continuing to do so, witth more of an emphasis on trying to attack Curry basically in isolation since he is a weak point, doesn’t make me think he was predisposed to being less effecient

I don’t think they were willing to live with less offense, I think they had no offense outside of lebron to an absurd extent, these situations aren’t comparable lol.

I don’t think it was brons best finals I think it’s overhyped, a bit, but to be clear that is a top heavy team went 3-10 without lebron, and you’re now taking out their second and third best players.

That 2018 team without harden probably is still a clear playoff team, they went 6-3 without him not including a last game loss where everyone rested, and one of their losses was to the Warriors, which is more wins than the cavs had in the 27 games bron missed from 2015-2017, where Kyrie and love both played a majority of games

6. Harden isoing that much and getting those numbers isnt a bad thing obviously

But the rockets offense is designed to make use of hardens high 1v1 scoring ability by trying to get switches and putting defenders on an island, it’s different from situations where a guy is isoing because everyone else is trash and can’t do anything

It’s designed to enhance his isolation ability, and use it at its best.

This isn’t a knock on harden, but when we discuss his high volume it’s fair to mention that it’s by design, it’s not like he’s beating unimaginable odds to do so the offense is designed to allow him to do that.

This doesn’t discredit him, he’s one of the best 1v1 scorers of all time easily, but I think it’s an important think to mention when we’re discussing his volume stats

I got 2018 and 2019 mixed up.

Again I lean harden over Nash, I just don’t think he was good in that 2018 series at all lol

I do think 2019 harden should get consideration here for sure, but I have 2017 or 2019 Kawhi and 2017 KD above him here at least pretty solidly at least

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