Franz Wagner or RJ Barrett?

[basketballRob]

Who would you take going forward? Both play the same position.

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=barrerj01&player_id2=wagnefr01

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[eminence]

I'd have to go with Wagner, Barrett just hasn't shown enough growth in his scoring efficiency for me 3 seasons in.

[cupcakesnake]

I think I gotta go Wagner. Barrett has been a miserably inefficient scorer and passer and at this point the only hope with him (outside of some out of nowhere transformation) is that he'd do better in a healthier offensive environment than the Knicks.

Wagner is bigger, gets his offense way easier, and is going to be a much better defender. His shot already looks better than Barrett's.

It hurts me to say. I'm Canadian and Barrett was supposed to the prince that was promised. Instead he's another Wiggins who never was. I like Wagner quite a bit too though and am very excited about the Paolo-Franz giant wing duo going forward.

[Dutchball97]

Wagner is younger and has 1 year in the NBA compared to 3 for Barrett and Wagner is already the clearly better player. I expect this gap between them to only grow larger with time.

[Texas Chuck]

I think we need to be a bit more cautious on Wagner, but yeah Barrett hasn't shown to be a valuable NBA player yet and Wagner might get there. But I'm not sure today Wagner is helping any more than RJ is. The main advantage for Wagner is financial at this point.

[homecourtloss]

How many players in NBA history who are highly inefficient scorers over their first three years, do not show signs of playmaking abilities in their first three years, and are below average team defenders in these first three years go on to be plus players in any capacity?

First year as a 19 year old you can give leeway for, but last year, after 200 games played, and plenty of chances with the ball in hands, he still showed he cannot score with even mediocre efficiency and was still a poor team defender. I’m trying to think of a player who accumulated -383 TS Added over his first three years, -152 TS added in his third year, couldn’t create for others, who went on to be a good rotational player for a playoff team.

So have to go Wagner here.

[eminence]

I will say I think RJs defense is decent enough, and could be good (not great, but good) if he gets directed more down that route.

The above from homecourt kind of sounds like years 3-5 Wiggins.

[cupcakesnake]

How many players in NBA history who are highly inefficient scorers over their first three years, do not show signs of playmaking abilities in their first three years, and are below average team defenders in these first three years go on to be plus players in any capacity?

First year as a 19 year old you can give leeway for, but last year, after 200 games played, and plenty of chances with the ball in hands, he still showed he cannot score with even mediocre efficiency and was still a poor team defender. I’m trying to think of a player who accumulated -383 TS Added over his first three years, -152 TS added in his third year, couldn’t create for others, who went on to be a good rotational player for a playoff team.

So have to go Wagner here.

I'm not sure the first paragraph totally fits Barrett though. He does show signs of playmaking abilities when you watch him. It clearly doesn't show up in the numbers, but when I watch Knicks games, RJ has a really nice shovel pass, is pretty good at kicking out, and looks like a decent interior passer. Now I'm not saying the numbers are wrong, or that RJ is a good passer, but ask any Knicks fan and they'll rave about his playmaking potential. One thing I look at with the Knicks is that they're so poorly built in terms of having too many play initiators (Rose, Kemba, Randle, Burks, even Quickley and Knox sometimes) and so few finisher types. They have Mitchell Robinson (who always plays with cramped lineups and no room to rim run) and Obi Toppin who is only a finisher in transition thus far. It seems set up for RJ to turn the ball over a lot, or have his passes turned into resets as Randle gets the ball and turns it into a post-up or isolation set for a tough pull-up. I'm not trying to convince you that he's good, but I do think things are stacked against him in the Big Apple.

Defensively, do you think he's really a below-average team defender? He's been in the point of attack role a lot in New York. I do think his hip flexibility is a bit poor, but he's very stout on the ball. He certainly isn't disruptive in the passing lanes. His defensive on/off numbers look bad, but the Knicks have typically had a better defensive bench and tried to shove multiple defensive liabilities in the starting lineup (Kemba, Randle, Fournier) while bringing in good defenders off the bench (Noel, Taj, Grimes, Sims). That being said, RJ's numbers look worse than a lot of the starters.