Jokic's shooting from 3-10 feet - No comparison?

[kcktiny]

Jabbar his first decade in the league (1969-70 to 1978-79) shot 55% on 2s when just the league average C (other than him) shot just 47%.

[JimmyFromNz]

Certainly another means of confirming just how versatile and polished his repertoire is. Though as mentioned by others, the nature of those shots in today's game should be taken to account, given how stretched the floor is, what that means for the paint space, and in fact the types of defenders and contests he would see on those shots compared to say - the heavy machinery in the paint during the 90s etc.

We can compare across eras by comparing to the avg. 3-10 FG% of that year...and no matter how you slice it, Jokic's finishing ability is an outlier.

Relative to league average 3-10 FG% for the best scoring bigs of various eras (and their best 3-10 FG% year):

2022 Jokic: +17%
2009 Yao: +12%
1999 Shaq: +9%
1998 Duncan: +13%
1997 Hakeem: +8%

Also: of the above players, only Shaq surpasses Jokic in volume. And the other best scoring bigs of the current era, Embiid and Giannis, aren't even close at -3% and -2% respectively last year.

I may be wrong but that reads as if I'm criticising Jokic - which isnt my intention. He's superb within that range and fits in well amongst the greats when discussing all time touch within 3-10 ft.

Im only suggesting that if comparing numbers across eras that should be carefully examined against the style and pressures of that era compared to the pressures of earlier eras. Which I think is essentially common sense ?

As with nearly all era average comparators (especially with something as blunt as FG%) the above statistical comparison is problematic as all it really tells us in simplistic terms is that Jokic is well above his peers in 2022. What would be useful is understanding the league shot data distribution - how many, and what do these players look like plotted against their peers, is it thin at the top (2020s) or crowded (90s) .

While jokic does a heap of his damage inside from designated switches (using that flip shot), put backs and taking advantage of space afforded by base defenders hedging the corner 3 due to his passing threat. I think its pretty safe to say guys like Shaq/Duncan in 2022 would experience a significant jump in those %s (also bringing the league average up significantly) if paired in this era of spacing, smaller lineups, roll creation that removes the grind it out, back down 1 v 1 creation and collapse coverages they had to navigate.

Regardless the fact does remain he has an all time touch.

[giberish]

I expect that this is a combination of Jokic's shooting touch and Jokic's passing.

Teams are far more reluctant to double Jokic compared to other bigs because of how much they fear his passing (and know that he prefers to beat them by passing). So even when Jokic gets some smaller guy on him that he can basically ignore when shooting over him, backs the guy down to 5 ft and then takes an easy shot over him there's often no help D. Obviously comparing to older guys some of that is offensive and defensive style changes, but it's true even compared to contemporaries (and it's not like Denver has uniquely great shooting around him).

[tsherkin]

I think its pretty safe to say guys like Shaq/Duncan in 2022 would experience a significant jump in those %s (also bringing the league average up significantly) if paired in this era of spacing, smaller lineups, roll creation that removes the grind it out, back down 1 v 1 creation and collapse coverages they had to navigate.

Worth considering how illegal defense affected them and how it took time for teams to figure out how to exploit that removal. But yes, there's a lot of spacing today with all of the perimeter threat, and we saw what Shaq looked like with Robert Horry as a stretch 4, and Hakeem before that, no less. It definitely helps. But keep in mind that the "grind it out, back down 1 v 1 creation" thing isn't actually a primary focus for young or peak Shaq. He did that, but he did a lot of good work off-ball in a manner fairly similar to Jokic. Old Barkley was much more of a back-down guy (hence the 5-second rule) than Shaq, he preferred to jockey for position, then either cut to a pass or receive the ball and make a quick move. He did his backdown thing, and I'm sure many of us remember it vs Mutombo and Sabonis and what-not, but he's often remembered for less than what he actually did. Shaq would thrive today offensively if you could tolerate how he'd get eaten alive in the PnR (unless he stayed Orlando thin).

There are always those shifting factors. Bigs don't have it that much better today. It's actually harder to ram the ball into them in volume, particularly if they don't have any kind of jumper, so overall post isolation has something of a volume cap unless the player's offensive diversity is there, mainly through range.

[ShotCreator]

Certainly another means of confirming just how versatile and polished his repertoire is. Though as mentioned by others, the nature of those shots in today's game should be taken to account, given how stretched the floor is, what that means for the paint space, and in fact the types of defenders and contests he would see on those shots compared to say - the heavy machinery in the paint during the 90s etc.

We can compare across eras by comparing to the avg. 3-10 FG% of that year...and no matter how you slice it, Jokic's finishing ability is an outlier.

Relative to league average 3-10 FG% for the best scoring bigs of various eras (and their best 3-10 FG% year):

2022 Jokic: +17%
2009 Yao: +12%
1999 Shaq: +9%
1998 Duncan: +13%
1997 Hakeem: +8%

Also: of the above players, only Shaq surpasses Jokic in volume. And the other best scoring bigs of the current era, Embiid and Giannis, aren't even close at -3% and -2% respectively last year.

I may be wrong but that reads as if I'm criticising Jokic - which isnt my intention. He's superb within that range and fits in well amongst the greats when discussing all time touch within 3-10 ft.

Im only suggesting that if comparing numbers across eras that should be carefully examined against the style and pressures of that era compared to the pressures of earlier eras. Which I think is essentially common sense ?

As with nearly all era average comparators (especially with something as blunt as FG%) the above statistical comparison is problematic as all it really tells us in simplistic terms is that Jokic is well above his peers in 2022. What would be useful is understanding the league shot data distribution - how many, and what do these players look like plotted against their peers, is it thin at the top (2020s) or crowded (90s) .

While jokic does a heap of his damage inside from designated switches (using that flip shot), put backs and taking advantage of space afforded by base defenders hedging the corner 3 due to his passing threat. I think its pretty safe to say guys like Shaq/Duncan in 2022 would experience a significant jump in those %s (also bringing the league average up significantly) if paired in this era of spacing, smaller lineups, roll creation that removes the grind it out, back down 1 v 1 creation and collapse coverages they had to navigate.

Regardless the fact does remain he has an all time touch.

League average shot volume from this range is actually higher today.

This is really overthinking this IMO. There’s no scenario where Duncan or Shaq is gonna be Jokic level statistically when they don’t have the skill, range, comfort or variety in the shots in the first place.

They would have to make up and force shots on the fly Jokic has been mastering his entire career. These one-legged push shots whether off catch or dribble. Simple face up jumpers he’s better at and they’re usually well contested. These one hand, one catch and finish in one motion shots that are just automatic and effortless for him.

Then you get into these hooks shots, where the touch is unbelievable.

Duncan would much rather go for a rip through at this distance and Shaq would rather avoid it altogether.

[Peregrine01]

We can compare across eras by comparing to the avg. 3-10 FG% of that year...and no matter how you slice it, Jokic's finishing ability is an outlier.

Relative to league average 3-10 FG% for the best scoring bigs of various eras (and their best 3-10 FG% year):

2022 Jokic: +17%
2009 Yao: +12%
1999 Shaq: +9%
1998 Duncan: +13%
1997 Hakeem: +8%

Also: of the above players, only Shaq surpasses Jokic in volume. And the other best scoring bigs of the current era, Embiid and Giannis, aren't even close at -3% and -2% respectively last year.

I may be wrong but that reads as if I'm criticising Jokic - which isnt my intention. He's superb within that range and fits in well amongst the greats when discussing all time touch within 3-10 ft.

Im only suggesting that if comparing numbers across eras that should be carefully examined against the style and pressures of that era compared to the pressures of earlier eras. Which I think is essentially common sense ?

As with nearly all era average comparators (especially with something as blunt as FG%) the above statistical comparison is problematic as all it really tells us in simplistic terms is that Jokic is well above his peers in 2022. What would be useful is understanding the league shot data distribution - how many, and what do these players look like plotted against their peers, is it thin at the top (2020s) or crowded (90s) .

While jokic does a heap of his damage inside from designated switches (using that flip shot), put backs and taking advantage of space afforded by base defenders hedging the corner 3 due to his passing threat. I think its pretty safe to say guys like Shaq/Duncan in 2022 would experience a significant jump in those %s (also bringing the league average up significantly) if paired in this era of spacing, smaller lineups, roll creation that removes the grind it out, back down 1 v 1 creation and collapse coverages they had to navigate.

Regardless the fact does remain he has an all time touch.

League average shot volume from this range is actually higher today.

This is really overthinking this IMO. There’s no scenario where Duncan or Shaq is gonna be Jokic level statistically when they don’t have the skill, range, comfort or variety in the shots in the first place.

They would have to make up and force shots on the fly Jokic has been mastering his entire career. These one-legged push shots whether off catch or dribble. Simple face up jumpers he’s better at and they’re usually well contested. These one hand, one catch and finish in one motion shots that are just automatic and effortless for him.

Then you get into these hooks shots, where the touch is unbelievable.

Duncan would much rather go for a rip through at this distance and Shaq would rather avoid it altogether.

If Jokic's finishing ability from this range isn't such an outlier, we'd see other bigs of today also eat at this range given all the advantages of this era that people ascribe to Jokic. But the fact is: no other big is converting at anywhere close to this rate (save for Ayton at much lower volume and due to being spoon-fed by the Point Gawd). 3-10 percentages have increased across the league since the 90s but Jokic is so much above league average that it's comical.

[JimmyFromNz]

We can compare across eras by comparing to the avg. 3-10 FG% of that year...and no matter how you slice it, Jokic's finishing ability is an outlier.

Relative to league average 3-10 FG% for the best scoring bigs of various eras (and their best 3-10 FG% year):

2022 Jokic: +17%
2009 Yao: +12%
1999 Shaq: +9%
1998 Duncan: +13%
1997 Hakeem: +8%

Also: of the above players, only Shaq surpasses Jokic in volume. And the other best scoring bigs of the current era, Embiid and Giannis, aren't even close at -3% and -2% respectively last year.

I may be wrong but that reads as if I'm criticising Jokic - which isnt my intention. He's superb within that range and fits in well amongst the greats when discussing all time touch within 3-10 ft.

Im only suggesting that if comparing numbers across eras that should be carefully examined against the style and pressures of that era compared to the pressures of earlier eras. Which I think is essentially common sense ?

As with nearly all era average comparators (especially with something as blunt as FG%) the above statistical comparison is problematic as all it really tells us in simplistic terms is that Jokic is well above his peers in 2022. What would be useful is understanding the league shot data distribution - how many, and what do these players look like plotted against their peers, is it thin at the top (2020s) or crowded (90s) .

While jokic does a heap of his damage inside from designated switches (using that flip shot), put backs and taking advantage of space afforded by base defenders hedging the corner 3 due to his passing threat. I think its pretty safe to say guys like Shaq/Duncan in 2022 would experience a significant jump in those %s (also bringing the league average up significantly) if paired in this era of spacing, smaller lineups, roll creation that removes the grind it out, back down 1 v 1 creation and collapse coverages they had to navigate.

Regardless the fact does remain he has an all time touch.

League average shot volume from this range is actually higher today.

This is really overthinking this IMO. There’s no scenario where Duncan or Shaq is gonna be Jokic level statistically when they don’t have the skill, range, comfort or variety in the shots in the first place.

They would have to make up and force shots on the fly Jokic has been mastering his entire career. These one-legged push shots whether off catch or dribble. Simple face up jumpers he’s better at and they’re usually well contested. These one hand, one catch and finish in one motion shots that are just automatic and effortless for him.

Then you get into these hooks shots, where the touch is unbelievable.

Duncan would much rather go for a rip through at this distance and Shaq would rather avoid it altogether.

It would be good to be clear that I didn't say they would level Jokic statistically. Additionally im not suggesting the other two would have a better array of shots, because that's a different debate altogether, particularly when considering someone like Shaq impact within the range is dictated by share force and footwork.

What I am suggesting is that array of shots Jokic has available to him in other eras and the coverage he would face in the paint at 3-10 looks vastly different and would impact the metrics quite notably, therefore a statical comparison across eras of the FG % (including league average) is problematic when using blunt statistics from 22 against other all time greats - which was basic of the thread.

Honestly I thought what I outlined was just basic critical thought when using these statistics, rather than overthinking it, or critiquing Jokic. He's clearly one of the best all time within that range and easily my favourite non-celtic player.

[Ein Sof]

Wow. He also had a top 5 defensive season of all time in 2022.

Yeah, I'm thinking GOAT.

[Redmoon]

Kevin Mchale is a great comparison for touch id say. His entire game consists of post ups around the basket and the number of little hooks and floaters he puts up at good efficiency rivals Jokic. 86-88 seasons in the playoffs he shoots between 58-60% on his twos.

[andyhop]

Is 3-10 feet the shooting split that makes the least sense that is commonly used?

The difference between the types of shots taken at 3 feet and those taken at 10 feet means that they have very little in common