tsherkin wrote:pillwenney wrote:League average TS% is notably higher now than it was in the 90s. His efficiency would look much better then, and unlike many modern players, it would likely be pretty unaffected by the different game back then IMO. His game is much less reliant on spacing (though that of course helps everyone) than the vast majority of high volume scorers. You're also leaving out the value in him creating for himself and others.
Mmm.
Derozan's raw TS% since becoming a 20+ ppg scorer:Code: Select all
2014: 53.2, -0.9% rTS (lgav 54.1)
2015: 51.0, -2.4% rTS (lgav 53.4)
2016: 55.0, +0.9% rTS (lgav 54.1)
2017: 55.2, +0.0% rTS (lgav 55.2)
2018: 55.5, -0.1% rTS (lgav 55.6)
2019: 54.2, -1.8% rTS (lgav 56)
2020: 60.3, +3.8% rTS (lgav 56.5)
2021: 59.1, +1.9% rTS (lgav 57.2)
2022: 59.0, +2.4% rTS (lgav 56.6)
2020-2022, he finally looks worth it, right? Of course, 2020 and 2021 were with San Antonio. This past season with Chicago, he had Lavine for 67 games, about 40% of a season from Lonzo Ball, 73 games from Vucevic. Lots of talent around him taking off pressure. He had an outlier season shooting from 10-16 feet. 29.7% of his shots at 51.1% FG, but had never previously shot over 49.3% (23.6% proportion, and he just had the second-best shooting season he's had from 16-23 feet, too. At age 32. So, we're seeing peak emergence, sure. But it has taken 12, 13 years to get there.
2017 and later, league-average TS% has been rising as 3PAr has been going up, for sure, so rTS% and TS+ have a slightly different meaning. But as I said, it took a very, very long time for Derozan to become a non-crap volume scorer, let alone reaching this recent phase where he's been very good in the RS and still dog-crap in the playoffs.
On the surface, I see what you're saying. His RS performance dramatically outstrips, say, John Starks or Sean Elliott. That would make a difference. But keep in mind that Derozan vanishes outside of 10 feet during the playoffs. He's a career 50.2% TS player in the playoffs. One of his 3 < 50% TS postseasons was just this past year in 2022, following one of his 3 best regular seasons. Career 46.5% FG player in the RS, 48.3% from 2. Past three seasons, 51.0% FG, 52.5% 2FG, right? Career 41.8% FG in the playoffs, 43.9% 2FG. Last three seasons? 44.6% FG, 47.3% 2FG. Career .404 FTr in the RS. Last three seasons, .424 (but dropped off to .386 this past season). Playoff career, .360, .308 the past 3 seasons (last 3 seasons in, anyway). Career 22.6% 10-16, 28.1% 16-23 feet, proportion-wise in the RS. 44.3% and 39.7% FG. 28.3 and 23.0 percent proportion in the past three years. 48.7% and 45.6% FG.
Playoffs? 19.3% and 32.0% proportion. 35.1% and 39.7% FG. Last three postseasons, 21.1% and 24.2% proportion. 35.6% and 42.0% FG. 2022 in particular, 23.2% and 44.2% proportion, 27.3% and 50.0% FG.
All of that matches what every Raptors fan remembers, and what probably Spurs and Bulls fans know now. It's trivial as a defense to get Derozan shooting long twos. He's okay to good at that depending on the season, but it gets him away from driving and gets him into a highly inefficient space. Limits his creation, limits his draw rate, limits his FG%. Limits everything.
So, RS warrior, PS dropper, even on good teams. I think that may not be quite as helpful as you think. And again, a dozen years or so to get himself into a space where he stands out as much more than a +1% rTS guy even back in the late 80s and 90s.
I’d have to read into it more, but I feel derozen excels at 1v1 scoring, and I remember bball index or something had his shot making difficulty this past year at somewhere ridiculous given the difficulty of his shots so I don’t think an increase in effeciency is solely because of easier scoring
There are definately concerns esp the playoff drops
