Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #29 - 2018-19 James Harden

[capfan33]

Haven't read through every word of this debate, but generally, I think from an archetypal standpoint it's much more preferable to have a defensively dominant (legit top-10 ever) center as opposed to a center whose impact centers around offensive rebounding and is an offensive black hole. Obviously it's very possible Moses was better but I would need more proof in regards to Moses to buy this.

[Proxy]

Nothing new rn cuz busy

1. 2003 Tracy McGrady
I guess the main comp for this season would be the floor raising efforts by players like Kobe(2006, Voted 19th), and Wade(2009, Voted 18th) - more similarily to Kobe(and somehow he ended up higher than him in one of the projects lol).

I don't think his situational value was really all that far off of those two, and I feel he was arguably in an even worse situation. I'd also say his game translated to the PS fairly well(seriously though, the expectations for some of those squads should be basically none), and there isn't really something I can point to from a skillset perspective that would cause me alot of concern in most runs, but the sample size for this Tmac is just sooo small - even right after in 2004 he was in an even worse situation and basically gave up on defense. Also by that point back problems started affecting his performance more and more.

RS to PS (2002 - 2005, unless i'm reading the multi year PS stuff wrong, but still just like 3 playoffs series) (via backpicks.com)
29.2 Inflation Adjusted Pts/75 -> 31.7
+1.6 rTS% -> +4.8% (also only a 6.9 Creation adjusted TOV% in the RS(!)
8.4 Box Creation -> +10.1
7.28 Passer Rating -> 6.3
+1.2 PlayVal -> +1.1
+1.1 ScoreVal -> +1.7

I will say that even though the numbers do paint the idea of him being a playoff riser, I think his performance in high leverage/clutch situations is kinda uninspiring relative to some of his peers(possibly due to fatigue), but reasons like that, the "flukiness" of the season, and the playoff sample size are all reasons that I think the gap between him and players like Kobe/Wade is fairly justified.

He is not the best offensive player remaining to me(Nash definitely and maybe Chuck, Penny, Harden, and Luka all better), but I view him as a positive impact player defensively in most cases so he slips past my next picks. (On a side note I think both and 2006 Kobe are somewhat underrated in that their defense on/off splits are hurt by teams slanting defensively when they leave the court).

2. 1997 Karl Malone (1998, 1992)
Honestly I could see the argument for him even being a top 20 ish regular season peak ever, but I generally have my gripes with him in a playoffs setting. Even with those though I don't think it's all too damning for Karl to drop him below here and I believe his impact translated better than his box numbers(more specifically scoring efficiency) would have you believe.

Using this post to piggy-back some thoughts off of:

-The notion of someone being a "postseason" performer is currently unsubstantiated. I've seen a small amount of evidence to suggest that a very small handful of Reggie players Miller can Reggie Miller raise their Reggie game in the Miller playoffs. But I've yet to see the study that demonstrates a statistically significant change. Malone has a huge TS% falloff relative to the other greats, and still, there's huge evidence that the Jazz wilted around him offensively and he simply took on a larger burden (e.g. the team ORtg correlates to his strongly, his teammates TOV% plummets in the PS, Stockton has a massive decline in postseason numbers).

-I would agree -- independent of some of the box numbers being thrown around -- that Malone is not as good of an offensive players (RS or PS) as West or Dirk or Barkley. But Malone is a mirror to one's rankings criteria. He will lose, by a small but clear amount, most peak-to-peak battles against every other player in this range. So what? If you value career value, this is literally irrelevant. I think this is where having a clear ranking rubric is paramount, not for anything to do with egos or fandom of rankings but so you are clearly communicating what exactly you are ranking.

Ironically, Dr. J is in the runoff with West and I would not quickly concede that Malone is a worse offensive player Erving. I think Erving's defense is phenomenal -- think peak LeBron as an athletic force -- but there are some issues with his offensive game that are not readily overcome with incredible slashing. Malone, OTOH, is probably the most misrepresented player statistically I can think of on real gm. Even from 92-98, he was a 27 ppg player at +1.8 TS% against 103.9 defenses in the PS. Malone played 85 prime games against sub-105 defenses, averaging 23/36 on 52.5% TS with 2.9 ast/36 and 2.4 tov. (+2.3 OBEV). Compare that to other all-timers:

vs. Sub-105 defenses in prime, PS, per 36
Olajuwon (29g) 20.6 | 55.1% TS | 3.1 ast | 3.1 tov | +2.2 OBEV
Malone (85g) 23.0 pts | 52.5% TS | 2.9 ast | 2.8 tov | +2.3 OBEV
Kobe (105g) 23.3 pts | 52.6% TS | 4.3 ast | 2.6 tov | +2.7 OBEV
Duncan (85g) 20.5 pts | 54.6% TS | 3.3 ast | 2.9 tov | +2.9 OBEV

Finally, while it's true that a 30 ppg/60% TS can be an average offensive player, a player can also be a 25 ppg/50% TS and be an elite offensive player. He does this with creation. With passing. With spacing. By bearing a role around teammates that sees him take more shots late in the clock, etc. By shooting more in the half-court (where expected pts/pos are lower). By not stopping the ball for no reason and by not passing the ball late in the clock when he's the best option. As a good example, in 2005, Tracy McGrady (an excellent creator himself) led a +6.3 offense (after the Wesley trade) while averaging 27 ppg and 53.2% TS, 0.3% over league average. Malone, of course, was a phenomenal passer.

The only bigs left on the board who could do more with that offense -- Dirk and Barkley -- give something back on defense anyway.

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https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1339145&start=300

3. 1990 Patrick Ewing
AEnigma basically laid out Ewing's argument already - I just prefer Karl enough on offense for me to prefer him here.
https://forums.realgm.com/boardsviewtopic.php?f=64&t=2224702#p101158627

?. 1990 Charles Barkley (1989, 1993)
Probably the 2nd best offensive peak remaining to me(after Nash). To be brief: asurd combination of scoring efficiency(partially inflated by ball stopping issues) and ridiculous rim pressure, all-time offensive rebounding, and one of the better big playmakers of all-time(I do think he peaked in this regard in Phoenix). Chuck averaged 24/75 on +8.7 rTS% in the PS from 1989 - 1991 with almost 5 offensive rebounds per 75. The pollack Sixers on/off numbers said he had about a +10 swing on offense(around neutral on defense) these 2 years in the RS, and they were probably his finest defensive ones as well(though I can't see any real reason to believe he was a net positive there - I'd say he was clearly a negative if anything for a power forward).


Philly those years had some pretty strong offenses(+5 in both regular seasons) but their defenses were just not that good, and they also didn't hold up completely on offense in the playoffs either.

Otoh later in Phoenix(I think he was a similar level player offensively)

After a statistical dip in 1992, Barkley was traded to Phoenix for All-Star scorer Jeff Hornacek and two rotation players. Philadelphia grew even worse, while Phoenix, already one of the best offensive teams in the league, was able to improve on its 1992 season with Barkley aboard. On offense, the Suns posted an elite +7 rORtg during 52 full-strength games. More impressively, in 32 games without all-league guard Kevin Johnson, but with Barkley, they engineered a +5.2 rORtg while playing at a 58-win pace.9 Barkley took more 3s than ever, and as a result, his offensive rebounding declined. However, the slight improvement in his passing largely made up for his drop in efficiency, as he set a career mark for estimated creation.

This team actually wasn't actually terrible defensively(above average actually, without a substantial change in his skillset or anything) and the floor raising effort here was extremely impressive(Phoenix's offenses actually held up in the PS, around +7.5 ish but their defenses where again abysmal, almost 3 points worse than average). I believe his defense is still not worse than the other "glass cannon players"(ex Harden, Luka, Penny), so with similar offensive quality he ends above them.

?. 2022 Joel Embiid(?)
Will add later

Honestly he might even be better than those 3 above already, but the health thing is hard to balance. I may still slide him higher later but I might also decide to not put him on at all(not sure he's really been better in the PS than Luka for example), but he's GOOD.


Anyways, after these players i'm leaning some group of Frazier, Zo, Penny, Dwight, Harden, and Luka.

The dicussion on Barkley's defense is making me rethink my position on him slightly, so I won't actually add him on my ballot for this round but i'll still keep the info above there for anyone interested. I'm still not completely sold on choosing the other primary offensive players with quality around his level that also have generally neutral-bad defense either around here(Ex Harden, Doncić, and Hardaway, Miller) over him - so they probably won't end up higher on my voting than him but I am reconsidering how Barkley stacks up against some of the all-defense bigmen(like Dwight, Zo, Joel, honestly even considering Thurmond, Gilmore, Cowens, Lanier, Draymond, and Reed to some degree - Ik he has been mentioned but I don't really see the evidence in Pettit's defense for me to rank him higher than Chuck), as well as some wings/fowards like Pippen, Barry, Hill, 19 PG, Baylor, and Hondo. Frazier doesn't fit into those categories but he's also getting consideration, also Russ ig(doubt I vote for him unless this goes to 50).

So for now


1. 2003 Tracy McGrady
2. 1997 Karl Malone(1998, 1992)
3. 1990 Patrick Ewing

[DraymondGold]

1. 1949 Mikan (1950/1951)
2. 1998 Karl Malone (1997, 1993/1992)
3. 1990 Charles Barkley (1993, 1989, 1991)
4. 2020 James Harden (2019, 2018)
5. 2003 Tracy McGrady
6. 1990 Patrick Ewing

Newer Stat box: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=101165986#p101165986

Mikan: He's clearly the most dominant of anyone here by any (few) stats we have, and by any (limited) film we have [see my previous conversation on the topic]. The big question is how much to discount him for his competition or from a "goodness" perspective. I'm honestly not sure what the answer is. I put him here, which used to be the approximate boundary between two Tiers of peaks. I think there'll definitely be some arbitrariness in when he gets voted in though. I just wish we had more info on him!

Other than Mikan, we're now getting into the group of peaks that are quite hard to distinguish. No candidate is flawless, and the data we have doesn't portray them too far apart, though there are clear groups). Additionally, no candidate has outlier positive contextual factors (e.g. resilience, scalability, time machine argument, etc.) to put them above the rest.

Malone, Barkley, and Harden tend to have the best statistical profiles (likely in that order, though Barkley and Harden are hard to separate). Malone is ahead in Augmented Plus Minus (both regular season and postseason), RAPM, and PIPM (regular season and postseason). He doesn't lose that much ground in BPM, and the accuracy of his WOWY numbers are limited by his minuscule off sample (which actually supports his durability advantage over everyone here). Harden and Barkley trade off in these stats, but tend to have a slight advantage over McGrady/Ewing.

Contextually, people tend to have resilience concerns with Malone. I've been a proponent that many supposed playoff "chokes" are overreactions that aren't that bad, often being cases of injuries or poor fit more than inherent limitations in the player. For Malone, I see his playoff struggles as clearly connecting to the fact that the load/volume of his teammates decreased in the playoffs... he was forced to shoulder a load that was slightly too large for him, and appeared to fail because of it. I see him as a fine playoff performer for this level, and I don't see him losing enough ground in resilience to Barkley and certainly not to Harden for them to catch up. Neither of these three are portability darlings (though all are better than Ewing here). Defensive concerns hold me back on Barkley compared to Malone, particularly since both are big men where defense is more valuable.

For McGrady, I'm a bit hesitant to take him over the other 3 given he doesn't have as compelling a statistical case, and given the shorter peak (how do we rate outlier years?) and the various other concerns (health / resilience) that come with him.

For Ewing, his WOWY numbers are encouraging, but defensive anchors have the potential to be overrated in WOWY, for reasons I've discussed previously. None of the other data we have on him is compelling relative to the first three, and I have major scalability concerns. Put another way, I have concerns about his iso-centric offensive approach to scoring, especially given he lacks a clear volume or efficiency advantage against these other players. And for all his defensive superiority, he's probably the worst facilitator of this group.
Could I be underrating Ewing's defensive advantage? The 90s Knicks were a historically good defensive dynasty, after all -- up there with Robinson/Duncan Spurs, the KG Celtics. How much of this was driven solely by Ewing vs boosted by his teammates? Ewing's certainly an all time defender, probably top 10 all time, but I see him as clearly a step down from Robinson/Duncan/Wilt/Hakeem/Russell/Garnett. If you're using team relative defensive rating to argue for him, it's worth noting that unlike other defensive greats (like Russell), his team's defensive success does not correlate well with Ewing's individual defense. Most people rate Ewing's seasons as something like this: 1990 > 1989 ~ 1991 > 1992 > 1993. But his team's defensive rating goes the exact opposite! His teams were better defensively when he was worse defensively. Now this still suggests you can build All-time defenses around Ewing, but to me it also suggests that Ewing was not the sole driver of these defensive teams.
Thus, I haven't yet been convinced that Ewing's defense is enough to overcome the advantages others have, but as I've said, these peaks are quite close together. There's certainly some uncertainty, and a more optimistic interpretation of Ewing's defense/offense could have him higher.

[LA Bird]

Here are the results for round 29

Winner: 19 Harden

There were 8 voters in this round: AEnigma, Samurai, trelos6, trex_8063, capfan33, Dutchball97, Proxy, DraymondGold

A total of 28 seasons received at least 1 vote: 03 McGrady, 09 Howard, 11 Howard, 15 Harden, 18 Harden, 19 Harden, 20 Harden, 21 Embiid, 22 Embiid, 49 Mikan, 50 Mikan, 51 Mikan, 58 Pettit, 59 Pettit, 61 Baylor, 62 Pettit, 89 Barkley, 90 Barkley, 90 Ewing, 91 Barkley, 92 Malone, 93 Barkley, 93 Malone, 94 Ewing, 94 Malone, 95 Malone, 97 Malone, 98 Malone

Top 10 seasons: 19 Harden, 90 Barkley, 93 Barkley, 03 McGrady, 90 Ewing, 98 Malone, 97 Malone, 11 Howard, 20 Harden, 50 Mikan

H2H record (1 season per player)
19 Harden: 0.610 (25-16)
90 Ewing: 0.568 (21-16)
03 McGrady: 0.564 (22-17)
90 Barkley: 0.556 (20-16)
98 Malone: 0.471 (16-18)
50 Mikan: 0.364 (12-21)
11 Howard: 0.324 (11-23)