kcktiny wrote:Fine.
The data you presented has data for all 3 teams from the 1965-66 to 1967-68 seasons, for some 60-80 games per season, a large sample size of data. And it shows an average defensive FG% allowed of .415 for Boston, .425 for Philadelphia, and .430 for San Francisco.
I'm sorry but over some 190-240 games the difference between these is very small. And those 3 years Wilt played 47 min/g (242 g), Bill 41 min/g (237 g), and Nate 42 min/g (189 g).
Sorry, but the difference between Celtics and Sixers defense wasn't that massive during that period. I picked older Russell years, because the boxscore numbers are more complete for them but Russell was past his prime at that point, while Wilt peaked:
1966-68 Celtics: 41.5 DFG%, -5.4 rDRtg (basketball-reference), -3.9 rDRtg (backpicks)
1966-68 Sixers: 42.5 DFG%, -3.7 rDRtg (basketball-reference), -3.5 rDRtg (backpicks)
So yeah, the difference isn't drastic (although 1% is noticeable), but the difference in defensive ratings isn't huge either - we're comparing two absolutely elite teams and it wasn't Russell Celtics peak by any means.
Even in 1963-64 with Boston at .409 and San Francisco at .414 that fact is there is simply very little difference. And that season Russell played 45 min/g (78 g) and Chamberlain 46 min/g (80 g).
Again, that's because SFW had all-time defensive season as well:
1964 Celtics: 40.9 DFG%, -10.8 rDRtg (basketball-reference), -8.7 rDRtg (backpicks)
1964 Warriors: 41.4 DFG%, -6.0 rDRtg (basketball-reference), -5.5 rDRtg (backpicks)
The data doesn't show gigantic gap, because you're comparing him to the best defensive teams of the 1960s. If we go with 1962 comparison for example, the difference is significant:
1962 Celtics: 40.5 DFG% (54 games), -8.5 rDRtg (basketball-reference), -6.1 rDRtg (backpicks)
1962 Warriors: 42.2 DFG% (78 games), -1.2 rDRtg (basketball-reference), +0.0 rDRtg (backpicks)
Compare this to data from the first two years we actually have NBA team defensive data for - 1970-71 and 1971-72. Those two seasons the difference in team FG% allowed on defense ranged from .424 to .469 (4.7% diff) and .420 to .486 (6.6% diff).
What are you doing here? You're comparing the difference of three of the best defensive teams in the league to league wide range? That's ridiculous. If you want to do that, compare Celtics to bad defensive teams:
1962 Celtics: 40.5 DFG% (54 games)
1962 Lakers: 42.1 DFG% (55 games)
1962 Warriors: 42.2 DFG% (78 games)
1962 Nationals: 42.4 DFG% (38 games)
1962 Royals: 42.6 DFG% (80 games)
1962 Hawks: 43.6 DFG% (71 games)
1962 Pistons: 43.6 DFG% (36 games)
1962 Packers: 45.3 DFG% (36 games)
1962 Knicks: 47.2 DFG% (37 games)
The data is very incomplete, but if we use it then difference in DFG% ranged from 40.5% to 47.2% (6.7% diff.). It's actually the bigger difference than the two seasons you mentioned. Celtics have 1.6% advantage over the second place and it's not a small difference at all.
So - again - any insistence on the Celtics being this overly great defensive team in the late 50s and early 60s because a website shows a team DRtg calculated from an erroneous calculation of game pace is false.
We have more conservative estimations that still put Celtics as by far the best defensive team of their era. If you find a reliable model that would question it, then I can change my perspective, but for now all you're asking for is to stop doing any analysis, because our data isn't perfect.
You can claim this all you want, but their game pace was nowhere near as high - and their team defense nowhere near as great - as that listed on that website.
How can you know that? You don't have more data than us, you can assume it's wrong but you don't know it. You just think it's impossible for Celtics to be fast paced defensive team, but even if you listen Russell and Red that was their gameplan. It's very likely that Celtics were consistently among the fastest teams in the league.
So any claim that Russell was a significantly better defender than the likes of Wilt and Nate because this website shows team defense that was unworldly for the time is unfounded, based off of their incorrect assumptions for team game pace.
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I already pointed out that these claims are not strictly based on pace estimations, but more on tracking data from the film we have.