tsherkin wrote:Owly wrote:I think this is about a distinction between comparing the year that the player had (as it happened to happen, with very particular stats etc) and our conception of the (underlying?) player in the that year (which is heavily informed by the former, but also surrounding years, our own interpretations, frameworks and biases etc) and our attempt to create a holistic understanding of them. The former is more "solid" (still we interpret it but one can say "he was on a team that was eliminated in the second round") the latter more probabilistic (and I suppose speculative). The former I'd think of/label as the "year" (that the player had) and the latter the "player" (in that particular year).
I think either could be discussed and probably are. I think that's fine otoh. I'd suggest it's just about being clear in what one means.
I dunno. It seems disingenuous to discuss a player in a particular season and then find a way to diminish that player based on things which didn't happen in that season.
Personally, from the above I can't see why - depending on what you mean "things that didn't happen" (and I suppose "a player in a season"). Basically see above but if everything isn't predestined then I can see saying this number is likely "lucky" and finding relevance in that. Now to be clear I can also see a "season" focused angle that doesn't care. If one is clear what they are discussing it shouldn't be an issue and then if one wanted to make a case that the one is more relevant or better approach then they can. They are different things and to say "I am only interested in X" also seems fine.
I'd find a really hard-line stance on this hard to reconcile with not ending up in a position of finding no relevance or value to someone saying "I wouldn't bank on James Posey repeating that '04 production/shooting given the season over again" (sub in Bobby Simmons or Erick Dampier or Eric Murdock or whoever you think has an outlier peak). If there's
any place discussing luck and a notion of the underlying player then I can't get behind an angle that something like the question of shooting luck is "wholly irrelevant" even if it's not something you are interested.
Finally I'll add that that doesn't mean I'd be okay with hand-waving away a great season just on the assumption that it was noise both because of the significant relevance of what did happen and an outlier season not necessarily being caused by luck.
Don't know, maybe I'm just repeating myself.