How good can Zion be?

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Let's assume he'll have a healthy career for the foreseeable future, how good can the guy be?
Trying to be more specific, how is his ceiling looking like and where does he need to work?

In my view the Point Zion experiment showed he can be an absolute monster on ball, while also having the game of an absolutely elite finisher able to get the ball on the move and attack the rim.
That's best scorer in the league ceiling, but as a creator I see his passing as good but not at point guard level, creating quite a gap between him and someone like Luka.
What's interesting to me is that he has this atypical offensive game that, naturally, will make the fi around him more complicate.
In particular, his inside game will all but force you to have around him shooters who can space the floor.
But his current paint defense (in particular activity and help instincts) also forces you to have a real big man next to him but, as we all know, big men who can bang, protect the rim and space the floor are an extremely rare commodity.
Hence either The Pels will find their Brook Lopez in Myles Turner or whoever or Zion will always face a clogged paint (and those guys' shooting might not be good enough anyway for that).
Because of that, I think what will make the difference if Zion will be in the conversation for best player in the league or not will be if he can become a viable smallball center option on defense.
Given his measurements, he needs to be more of a mobile big than a standard drop big, able to switch and meet guys at the perimeter. But for this to happen he needs to get back to his Duke weight and mobility (and improve his awareness).
If this happens, you can build some incredibly cool lineups around him and he could actually be the best player in the NBA.
Without a substantial improvement to his defense that's a fringe top10 at best, whose boxscore footprint might exceed his actual impact.

I am very excited to see him this year.

[Texas Chuck]

We simply can't make your first assumption.

When he does play, his ceiling as a scorer seems very high. I'm less convinced that point Zion is really a thing. He was sold to us coming out of Duke as a defensive force, but that was based on that one highlight block and it appears he's likely to struggle to be neutral at that end.

Best case? Probably Amare.

[Jaivl]

We simply can't make your first assumption.

When he does play, his ceiling as a scorer seems very high. I'm less convinced that point Zion is really a thing. He was sold to us coming out of Duke as a defensive force, but that was based on that one highlight block and it appears he's likely to struggle to be neutral at that end.

Best case? Probably Amare.

Guy probably peaked as high as Amar'e for the half season he played, can't see that as his best-case.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

We simply can't make your first assumption.

When he does play, his ceiling as a scorer seems very high. I'm less convinced that point Zion is really a thing. He was sold to us coming out of Duke as a defensive force, but that was based on that one highlight block and it appears he's likely to struggle to be neutral at that end.

Best case? Probably Amare.

You can make whatever assumption you want, you don't need to believe that's going to happen.
I don't think it requires so much of an effort to imagine a guy being healthy from now on, we analyze way wilder scenarios than this one...

Duke Zion was much lighter and with a higher motor, I guess getting there will be an absolute must for Zion to reach his potential (and maximize his chances to have a healthy career).
I understand the Amare comparison, but Zion has shown much more off ball than him and that puts him potentially on a higher tier as an offensive player.

[Texas Chuck]

We simply can't make your first assumption.

When he does play, his ceiling as a scorer seems very high. I'm less convinced that point Zion is really a thing. He was sold to us coming out of Duke as a defensive force, but that was based on that one highlight block and it appears he's likely to struggle to be neutral at that end.

Best case? Probably Amare.

Guy probably peaked as high as Amar'e for the half season he played, can't see that as his best-case.

I mean I can. Sure he might play better than Amare for a couple months here or there, but since I refuse to just grant him health when that seems highly unlikely, I think if he manages a couple all-NBA teams as a dominant inside offensive player he's had a pretty good outcome.

I'd love to be wrong btw. I'd love him to be Big Z who gets healthy and then just plays up to his incredible offensive talent and we can see if anyone in the league can figure out how to stop him. 2 years ago basically nobody but one game of Maxi Kleber figured it out at all. And of course his next two matchups with Maxi and Dallas he went 14/15 and then had 40 points the next time out.

He's an absolute scoring force. But health and the other limitations to his game don't have me as high on him.

[Texas Chuck]

You can make whatever assumption you want, you don't need to believe that's going to happen.
I don't think it requires so much of an effort to imagine a guy being healthy from now on, we analyze way wilder scenarios than this one...

Yeah sorry. I should have said I can't make that assumption. I agree this board spends a lot of time on time machine scenarios and doesn't take into account personalties, health, contracts much at all.

My problem is I simply can't, and if I'm honest, don't want to ignore reality when making projections. But I shouldn't have tried to imply others couldn't just because its not my approach.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Honestly, while more spacing than NOP offered to him in 20-21, would be nice, I don't think it is a must for Zion to still provide superstar offensive impact, it would just maximize his offense. I actually would be more concerned with getting him a really good defender by him that can protect the rim.

In 21, despite some of the worst spacing in the league, Zion was incredible creating his shot, and getting to the rim

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And not only could he create his shot easily in the system, he could finish easily. Like, taking into account the difficulty of hit shot attempts at the rim, and the volume he gets there at, he is already one of the greatest finishers ever.

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Once Zion was given the keys to playing point for the Pelicans, Zion averaged about 29 points per 75 on rTS% of approx 10% above league average for the rest of the year.

I think Zion can easily be a strong MVP candidate if he hasn't lost athleticism and he is able to stay healthy moving forward. Getting back to his weight at Duke or in the 2019-2020 NBA preseason, I think would allow him to be a plus defender, as I actually think he is light on his feet and guard wings and less talented guards.

[capfan33]

Maybe Giannis with better passing, worse shooting, and none of the defense lol. I make this comparison because the crux of both their games is rim pressure, and their not all that dissimilar otherwise except for defense obviously.

[NO-KG-AI]

We've seen brief versions of two separate Zions. We've seen him as a rookie and the beginning of his next season playing a lot more ground bound, post oriented game, and as a roller, and he was stupidly efficient with great volume for that role. 22.5 points on 58% shooting in less than 28 minutes(He's putting up Rookie Shaq scoring numbers on even less time/touches)... 29.1 per 36 as a 6'6, post scoring rookie who was mostly an off ball threat/finisher.

Then Point Zion was able to push that efficiency even higher and continue that scorching pace even with an increase in minutes.

He's unique in that he's one of the very few players that can be a legitimate tier A scoring option on and off the ball.

I think his passing is more than good enough to leverage him as an attacker. I think he's got Charles Barkley potential on offense at least, but he's honestly even more athletic and explosive, and even bigger. He's not a traditional wing or a traditional big, and I think it just kind of confuses how he can attack for some people.

Defensively, there really is no excuse for him. No one that moves at the level he does, and has his strength and second, third, and fourth jump ability should ever be a bad defender once they are acclimated to the league. Far less capable guys have made great careers as defenders, he just has to want it, and put in the work/effort(which was a problem for everyone but Steven Adams when Stan was here though.)

That said, he wasn't nearly as bad as people want to pretend defensively in his second season. The Pels were only 1.2 points worse defensively with Zion on the floor, which is not glaring or egregious for a 19-20 year old with a heavy offensive load and a poor team defensively around him. Matter of fact, it was the best of the starters, slightly above Lonzo, clearly above Ingram, with Bledsoe(Lack of effort and severe decline) and Adams(injured, limping half the season) being far and away the worst defensive starters.

As for Zion himself, he looked very nervous/wary about attacking in the air defensively to challenge shots or jump passes like he did in college. I'm not sure if it was nervousness after missing half the season as a rookie with a knee issue, or if it was a cardio issue where he just didn't have the ability to attack in free safety mode.

I'll withhold judgement on his defense until he's older and more mature and when I see him on a team with cohesive defense in terms of effort and scheme. I still think he has potential to be a stout point of attack defender that is basically immovable, and has the explosiveness to be one of the best free safety types that can cause complete chaos off the ball, but he needs that ferocity back.

We've seen enough consistency in the type of plays he can make to have a good idea of what he could be, but the field is kinda wide open on what he will be.

[Ein Sof]

Maybe a bit of a long shot but how about 27/7/4 on 65%TS

[Cavsfansince84]

I think he could be a top 5 player still. That's if he can find a way to keep his weight down, have strong cardio and improve in most areas that he is weak in now such as defense. That seems like a big if though. I'd bet he still plays like a top 10-12 player when healthy even without all of that but injuries will start to take their toll if he keeps having them and I'm worried that 2-3 years from now he won't be able to move like he did two years ago and then he could quickly fall off.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

Maybe a bit of a long shot but how about 27/7/4 on 65%TS

is this a joke I am not getting?

[MyUniBroDavis]

ceiling?

Best in the league probably.

Zion went from having a six pack to drinking a six pack per day and averaged 27-7-3 while rebounding his shot half the time his first full year on a team with some of the worst spacing in the league lol

[LukaTheGOAT]

Maybe a bit of a long shot but how about 27/7/4 on 65%TS

is this a joke I am not getting?

I think those might be his 2021 RS averages. So perhaps he believes Zion has already peaked.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Let's assume, healthy.

Barkley got a away with playing athletically like a smaller man while packing a lot of weight.
It is one thing to play above the rim with a thin body so that you don't have an extra 50 pounds of weight every time you land on your feet. I don't expect Zion's feet to last. Even for thin centers foot problems are commonn.

I don't want to take Zion's weight away from him because using that weight effectively is part of his game. But I doubt he can stay healthy.

I just can't assume health. If I magically let him expand his game from where he is without assuming injury then he will have a truly great peak.

[jasonxxx102]

An elite post scorer with? He’s not even an above average defender, he’s not a shooter, average maybe slightly better as a ball handler.

“Point Zion” is such a silly thing

He can be the best post scorer ever and it won’t matter.

None of that will matter anyways because it makes no sense to imagine he can stay healthy.

[LukaTheGOAT]

An elite post scorer with? He’s not even an above average defender, he’s not a shooter, average maybe slightly better as a ball handler.

“Point Zion” is such a silly thing

He can be the best post scorer ever and it won’t matter.

None of that will matter anyways because it makes no sense to imagine he can stay healthy.

In the 21 season, Zion was 2nd in post scoring for players with a minimum of 200 possessions behind Embiid.

He was the most efficient scorer on putback attempts, minimum 100 attempts.

[HeartBreakKid]

All time great. He's still quite young and already showed promise. Health is his biggest hurdle.

[jasonxxx102]

An elite post scorer with? He’s not even an above average defender, he’s not a shooter, average maybe slightly better as a ball handler.

“Point Zion” is such a silly thing

He can be the best post scorer ever and it won’t matter.

None of that will matter anyways because it makes no sense to imagine he can stay healthy.

In the 21 season, Zion was 2nd in post scoring for players with a minimum of 200 possessions behind Embiid.

He was the most efficient scorer on putback attempts, minimum 100 attempts.

He's an elite post scorer. That's what I said.

[LukaTheGOAT]

An elite post scorer with? He’s not even an above average defender, he’s not a shooter, average maybe slightly better as a ball handler.

“Point Zion” is such a silly thing

He can be the best post scorer ever and it won’t matter.

None of that will matter anyways because it makes no sense to imagine he can stay healthy.

In the 21 season, Zion was 2nd in post scoring for players with a minimum of 200 possessions behind Embiid.

He was the most efficient scorer on putback attempts, minimum 100 attempts.

He's an elite post scorer. That's what I said.

I apologize, I misunderstood your statement. I thought you were trying to say, how is he supposed to be an elite post scorer due to the ? mark. I think I understand your comment now.