Chris Paul or Keivn Durant. Who's better offensively? Who's better defensively?

[letskissbro]

Title.

*Kevin

[VanWest82]

I'd rather have peak Kevin Durant in the playoffs to save my life on both sides of the ball. I'd rather have peak Paul running the show in almost every other circumstance.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I'll be that guy. I am going with CP3 on offense because I value floor-raising quite a bit.

I want to first off start by saying that if I had to make a pick for better defender, than I might go KD because of his rim-protection, and ability to guard wings and bigs better in 1 v 1 scenarios. Relative to position, CP3 is a better defender, but size and length are really king on defense. I think that sheer size can allow for KD to be more relevant when locked in and peak higher, although I think CP3 could be more consistent due to better awareness.

Now, I favor CP3 because I believe he is a better floor-raiser. I think CP3 having a better handle, and sheer agility allow him to create better without being confined. I think KD's handle, as a result of him being so tall and long can be disrupted at times, and therefore he really benefits from being set up by others. He is not quite the passer of CP3, and therefore making him the main playmaking engine can leave you with results that are lesser than CP3.

Chris Paul's PS Peaks

3-year Backpicks BPM-7.4

5-year Backpicks BPM All-time Rank- #3

5-year BPM-9.60

3-year PS On/Off-14.7

3-year PS AuPM-5.2

3-year Peak LEBRON-7.40

Single Year PS PIPM-5.67 (Has 2 years better than KD's 17 PS run)

In RAPTOR, CP3 has 8 PS runs, besting KD's single best PS run. 08, 11, 13-18

CP3 also has a higher 3-year peak in the PS xgboost model predicting LEBRON created by one of the developers of the LEBRON metric (box-score only though)

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Kevin Durant's PS Peaks

3-year Backpicks BPM-7.6 (6.3 Outside of GSW)

5-year Backpicks BPM All-time Rank- #17

5-year BPM-7.27 (Does not include 21 PS, which would boost it a bit, but still, I imagine would be below CP3)

3-year PS On/Off-8.8

3-year PS AuPM-5.1 (3.8 outside of GSW)

3-year Peak LEBRON-6.58 (3.49 outside of GSW, though it only goes back to 2014)

Single Year PS PIPM-4.71

So, whether by the box-score or hybrid plus-minus metrics, CP3 often comes out ahead. Now I mention some of KD's peak stints outside of GSW because I don't necessarily think the work/value he put in there is reflective of what we would expect of KD. I think GSW really was the optimal situation for KD's impact in that he had more opportunity than ever to go 1 v 1 and not have his handle pressured by traps or have to make as difficult of passing reads. GSW is considered by some to be the most talented roster ever, and therefore if I am trying to measure the true goodness of a player, I would like to estimate their impact in various situations. The fact that KD's on/off peaks at 8.8 in OKC/(and same is true of small Brooklyn sample where his on/off is not noteworthy) where he was perhaps asked to play more of a floor-raising role, kind of further backs the idea, that KD maybe can't lift teams in the floor-raiser role as well.

In the PS: 11-16, Durant without Harden or Westbrook, -5.1 in 678 minutes.

Harden was +4.3 without KD/Russ, and Russ was -1.2 without Harden/KD.

Same happened in Brooklyn: Durant was -1.1 without Harden/Ky, while Harden was +3.8 without Ky/Durant, and Ky was +42.2 without Harden/Durant. Only 3 series, so Samples obviously small.

Now KD can likely gel more easily with other ball-handlers due to better deep range shooting, and ability to come of pin-downs, along with being a better cutter. However, I just have a personal preference for CP3's profile, as I would like KD to have shown more impact as the undisputed best offensive player on his team. KD doesn't have to be the floor-raiser of CP3 to be as good, however I would like to have seen more.

Yes, KD made deeper PS runs, however Paul actually faced tougher PS defenses from 12-16 than KD ever did based on rDRTG https://diamondhoop5.wordpress.com/2021/07/12/playoff-defenses-faced-update/ Not only did CP3 not necessarily get to boost his playoff numbers against bad defenses, but he looks this insane going up great ones and gives the imprint of a guy who is an all-timer who ran up against some tough teams. Paul's team offenses haven been great, posting a playoff offensive relative efficiency of +5.7 from 2013-17 and a 3-year offensive peak of 7.7 (15-17). Durant's offenses were a bit better from 16-18, peaking at an 8.5 from 16-18, however 1) per several plus-minus metrics, Westbrook, not Durant was the most valuable offensive player during the PS period of 13-16 and 2) excluding any of his GSW years, his best 3-year PS offense was a 5.8.

I don't believe it egregious to give Paul the edge over Curry when you consider that CP3's prime was longer and statistically his playoff peak looks so abnormally good. The longevity is impressive. The longevity is impressive. For instance, Paul has the 2nd most postseason runs over +4 in AuPM per game since 1997 with 7 (behind Lebron), so he has shown great consistency. Keep in mind a +4 is around the area of what you would expect for a top 5 guy, so that is significant added value.

Overall, it is possible I am underselling any improvements KD made in his game during GSW, that allowed for him to do what he did there. However, CP3's statistical portfolio matches up well with KD nonetheless, and just based off my eyes, I have a higher comfort level with CP3 assuming he doesn't pull a hammy. El fin.

[No-more-rings]

I prefer KD offensively, KD’s scoring is arguably top 5 ever in his prime and that’s not something that can just be sneezed at. Defensively i’m unsure about, I don’t see it as something moving the needle one way or another. KD’s defensive peak is higher, but he’s probably less consistent.

Career vs career, there isn’t really much to talk about. Accolades/accomplishments KD blows Paul away. I’d have them probably about 5 spots or so apart.

[Dutchball97]

Offensively they're comparable imo, CP3's playmaking is a huge asset for him and while he doesn't always score a lot he definitely can when he has to. However, I do still think KD on his best day is a better offensive player and especially looking at the last 5-10 years KD is also more consistent than Paul in the play-offs. So gun to my head I'd go with KD here.

Defensively I feel pretty comfortable saying Chris Paul is better relative to position but overall KD's defense is more valuable.

[Ambrose]

You could probably make an argument in the regular season that CP3 is better at both. Postseason, KD on both ends, and the gap is clear.