Luka vs Harden

[durantbird]

I'm sure there has been a discussion about that but can't find it. Who had the better peak as of now? James Harden or Luka Doncic? And if it's Luka, what about the difference in advanced stats

[Mavrelous]

Peak? Harden was the MVP and scoring leader and almost knocked out one of the strongest dynasties ever, it's Harden and it's not really close.
Here's a comparison of Harden's best season Vs Luka's best season, Harden is better on all fronts
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=hardeja01&p1yrfrom=2019&player_id2=doncilu01&p2yrfrom=2020

[ceoofkobefans]

As far as impact metrics go

2020 Harden

15.8 WS/82 (GP)
+9.6 BPM (+7.3 VORP)
+10.5 RAPTOR (19.8 Wins Added)
+6.98 LEBRON (+14.6 Wins Added)
+2.79 1yr RAPM (+2.7 LA RAPM)
+4.58 3yr RAPM (+4.55 LA RAPM)

2022 Luka
9.6 WS/82 (GP)
+8.2 BPM (+5.9 VORP)
+6.4 RAPTOR (13.6 Wins Added)
+3 LEBRON (8 Wins Added)
.76 1yr RAPM (-.17 LA RAPM)
+1.99 3yr RAPM (+1.16 LA RAPM)

There’s a few other impact metrics like BP BPM and EPM that I don’t have access to but I’m confident Harden leads in those as well. According to impact metrics it’s very clear that harden is better peak for peak

I agree with Harden being better (I’d have Harden as a clear MVP caliber player and Luka being inbetween clear MVP level and fringe MVP level). There’s a good bit of similarities in their game. They’re both bigger guards that are super ball dominant All time playmakers floppers/foulbaiters that’s biggest strengths defensively being post defense while having motor issues and being slight - on that end. Harden is the clearly better scorer which makes him better offensively which is what gives him the edge for me.

[Texas Chuck]

Clearly Harden. He's has his peak and is on the downside now. Luka is probably still at minimum 3-4 years from his peak. Probably a comparison to re-visit in 7 or 8 years.

OP, Harden was such a good offensive player. There was a reason he was an MVP candidate every year.

[nate33]

Peak Harden was legitimately one of the greatest offensive forces in NBA history. Put him on the floor with 4 scrubs who could do nothing but catch-and-shoot open 3's, and he'd deliver a top 3 offense. It may have been boring to watch, but it was incredibly effective.

[eminence]

Peak Harden was legitimately one of the greatest offensive forces in NBA history. Put him on the floor with 4 scrubs who could do nothing but catch-and-shoot open 3's, and he'd deliver a top 3 offense. It may have been boring to watch, but it was incredibly effective.

100% agree with the first bit and the last bit.

But in terms of what you need, I do think you need a good screening big in the Harden style offense.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2017/lineups/

All their best lineups had either Capela, Nene, or Harrell.

[parsnips33]

Peak Harden was legitimately one of the greatest offensive forces in NBA history. Put him on the floor with 4 scrubs who could do nothing but catch-and-shoot open 3's, and he'd deliver a top 3 offense. It may have been boring to watch, but it was incredibly effective.

100% agree with the first bit and the last bit.

But in terms of what you need, I do think you need a good screening big in the Harden style offense.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2017/lineups/

All their best lineups had either Capela, Nene, or Harrell.

I do think he got better at the pure iso from the top of the key as time went on. At a certain point, he didn't even really need a screen - just lull the defender with the between the legs dribble and either drive or step back

[Homer38]

Harden was way better in the regular season in his peak but I trust way more Luka when you need a great performence in a crucial moment in the playoffs

[SickMother]

Luka's career high TS+ is 104 and his career high TS Add is 62.

Harden had nine straight years with a TS+ of 110 or better and a TS Add of 210 or better.

Given his unimpressive efficiency, Luka profiles closer to Westbrook than Harden for me.

[Jaivl]

Luka's career high TS+ is 104 and his career high TS Add is 62.

Harden had nine straight years with a TS+ of 110 or better and a TS Add of 210 or better.

Given his unimpressive efficiency, Luka profiles closer to Westbrook than Harden for me.

Yeah right now he's much much closer to Westbrook than to Harden.

He's 23 though, far from a finished product. Not many players have played at peak Westbrook level at age 23.

[Cavsfansince84]

Harden was way better in the regular season in his peak but I trust way more Luka when you need a great performence in a crucial moment in the playoffs

Which is the biggest issue I have with peak debates on this board. I feel like people can't decide whether rs or ps is more important in how they debate it on here and too often people default peak rs to whichever year lines up with peak ps. I firmly believe that peak is better served by combining both peak rs and peak ps together(from different seasons if need be) for how players are judged since the chances of them perfectly lining up for any player tends to be rare.

[LukaTheGOAT]

You know in terms of PS play as an undisputed #1 option, I think Luka has a case here.

I think we all can agree that both Harden and Luka have big box-score production. Some might even argue that the box-score overrates their actual true impact, so the numbers I am about to use may have more value than they normally have when evaluating guys, as they are largely offense-only guys, which the box-score can track better.

Luka (20-22)
33.15 Points Per 75 Possessions (rTS% of 2.9%), Estimated Weighted Average of 16.6 Shots Created Per 100 Possessions

Backpicks BPM Minutes Weighted Average-7.25
Minutes Weighted PER-27.96
Minutes Weighted BPM-9.68
Minutes Weighted Average Box RAPTOR-8.8

Luka in the PS series during these times lead had the following raw rORTG: 4.7, 3.4, 7.1, 8.3, and 4

James Harden (18-20)

IA 29.9 Points Per 75 Possessions (rTS% of 3.3%), Estimated 12.4 Shots Created Per 100 Possessions

Backpicks BPM-6.8
Minutes Weighted PER-25.77
Minutes Weighted BPM-8.4
Minutes Weighted Average Box RAPTOR-8.9

Harden in the PS series during these times lead had the following raw rORTG: 5.3, 7, -4, 2.9, 3.8, 0.2, and 0.9

If we buy that Harden and Luka's impact is generally well caught in the basic box-score, then looking at their 3-year peaks, it would seem as if Luka certainly has an underrated argument against Harden. The sample is smaller for Luka, but it is enough to make me believe in him against stingier defenses.

I think what makes Luka an interesting adoption here is arguably his versatility. He differs from Harden in being bigger, being able to operate out the post, being a better rim-finisher, and better directionality in passing to his right AND left (Harden misses reads to his left I might argue more than he should). Luka is also better with making skip passes, that can really force the defense to scramble, and lead to easier looks for his shooters.

Furthermore, I think Luka can get hot from more spots inside the arc, which is helpful if teams should run you off the line. Luka's midrange FG% in all of his series was the following: 50%, 46%, 52%, 47%, and 39% and he is shooting these anywhere from 8.3 to 12 attempts per 75 possessions. Harden from 18-20 had the following percentages from the midrange: 32%, 34%, 41%, 28%, 43%, 50%, AND 48%, with his range of attempts being anywhere from 3.7 to 8.1 attempts per 75 possessions. I think these "counters are really helpful, for when a guy isn't able to get fully to the rim or doesn't have the vertical explosiveness to finish over a big.

With Luka so far having shown arguably better scoring in the PS, likely better playmaking, and ability to react to defenses on the fly better, I think I prefer Luka as an offensive hub.

I think where Harden might close the gap, is ironically defensively. I am not confident in saying by how much, but I do think Harden is a better defender. It is possible to sway me perhaps in believing Harden is the better guy because you think he is not the liability that Doncic is. I am not sure if I ever saw Harden get attacked the same way Doncic did against the Warriors (and early parts of the Suns series). Houston did have better defensive personnel, but seemingly Harden never stuck out as negatively as Doncic did, although my sight could deceive me.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

Luka is bigger and runs into defenders at higher speeds.
Harden runs into defenders at slower speeds but does clever things arround the point of collision to ensure contact.
Luka will go arround the defender if he can without giving up his straightish line to the rim.
When Harden has the option to go arround the defender he will still jump into the defender.

Harden, Luka and Shaq woukd have had a problem not fouling out from offensive fouks if they were refereed by 1960s refs and did not adjust their games to 1960s rule interpretations.

[The-Power]

Given his unimpressive efficiency, Luka profiles closer to Westbrook than Harden for me.

Except Luka is closer in efficiency to Harden than Westbrook, and for the playoffs he's actually more efficient than Harden during the years most people consider to be his peak and fairly close overall. So that statements feels way off even if you believe that Harden has had a better peak to date (reasonable).

[Mavrelous]

I think where Harden might close the gap, is ironically defensively. I am not confident in saying by how much, but I do think Harden is a better defender. It is possible to sway me perhaps in believing Harden is the better guy because you think he is not the liability that Doncic is. I am not sure if I ever saw Harden get attacked the same way Doncic did against the Warriors (and early parts of the Suns series). Houston did have better defensive personnel, but seemingly Harden never stuck out as negatively as Doncic did, although my sight could deceive me.

Harden had still very good Dwight Howard and Clint Capella behind him to protect the rim, so putting him the P&R was less effective than putting Luka in the P&R with Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber (who's a good shot blocker, but mainly on his man), that's why Luka looked bad visually on defense, without them, HOU was a non factor in 2020 PO.

[Mavrelous]

Harden, Luka and Shaq woukd have had a problem not fouling out from offensive fouks if they were refereed by 1960s refs and did not adjust their games to 1960s rule interpretations.

Half of the league guards will have double digit TOs with the way they carry the ball now in 60s rules, you play your eras rules...

[LukaTheGOAT]

I think where Harden might close the gap, is ironically defensively. I am not confident in saying by how much, but I do think Harden is a better defender. It is possible to sway me perhaps in believing Harden is the better guy because you think he is not the liability that Doncic is. I am not sure if I ever saw Harden get attacked the same way Doncic did against the Warriors (and early parts of the Suns series). Houston did have better defensive personnel, but seemingly Harden never stuck out as negatively as Doncic did, although my sight could deceive me.

Harden had still very good Dwight Howard and Clint Capella behind him to protect the rim, so putting him the P&R was less effective than putting Luka in the P&R with Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber (who's a good shot blocker, but mainly on his man), that's why Luka looked bad visually on defense, without them, HOU was a non factor in 2020 PO.

Yup. Which is precisely why, I am not confident in Luka being that much worse of a defender than JH. I think Harden can move quicker laterally when he really wants to, and has a bigger sample of him defending the post effectively. However, Harden isn't really creating events and arguably his transition defense is worse than Luka's.

[oaktownwarriors87]

At Lukas age James Harden had only started 7 NBA games and was 6 years away from leading the league in scoring.

Not exactly a fair comparison.