Better Player During Prime: Jayson Tatum, Dame Lillard, Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Paul George

Moderators: Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal

Which player is better....

Prime Derrick Rose 2011-2013
9
25%
Current Jayson Tatum
5
14%
Prime Paul George
6
17%
Prime Jimmy Butler
9
25%
Prime Dame Lillard
7
19%
 
Total votes: 36

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rate_
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Re: Better Player During Prime: Jayson Tatum, Dame Lillard, Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Paul George 

Post#21 » by rate_ » Fri Oct 28, 2022 5:35 am

Colbinii wrote:
Spoiler:
rate_ wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
Dude...2022 is just as much of an Outlier as his 2021 performance. It isn't fair or objective to say "Look at 2022 and how great he was" when ignoring 2021.

Here are Butler's post-season OBPM from 2015-2022 (His Prime)
4.0
2.7
2.3
4.4
4.4
-0.9
8.3

Do you see how there are two outliers?

How, when it's a 17 game sample off a normal offseason compared to a 4 game sample size off an extremely shortened offseason? You can't be serious.


8.3 is an outlier, just as -0.9 is, and by similar degrees [Mathematically speaking]. Butler never eclipsed a 4.5 OBPM in the post-season and all-of-a-sudden puts together a post-season which nearly DOUBLES his career high post-season and you DON'T think it is an outlier?

At this point in time, mathematically speaking, 8.3 is an outlier. That is what I am talking about, the term Outlier is a mathematical term which has a mathematical definition.

Jimmy's overall 3-year run in Miami in the playoffs:

42 games | 24/7/6/2 | 5.4 OBPM | 2.1 DBPM | 24.9 PER | 59.1 TS

If you combine the sample size of his last 3 playoffs, Jimmy's OBPM still averages out to 5.4, which is higher than Tatum's OBPM last 3 playoffs (2.4), any consecutive 3-year playoff prime of Paul George (highest by OBPM is 2.8 with Indiana from combined 2014 & 2016-17 seasons). Dame's last 3 playoff runs in combined 26 games has an average OBPM of 6.7, which is higher than Jimmy. But Jimmy's clear advantage in DBPM (2.1 to -0.3) makes him to edge out Dame in overall playoff BPM (7.5 to 6.4). Jimmy also had deeper playoff runs against elite defenses, bigger sample size and more memorable series performances.
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Re: Better Player During Prime: Jayson Tatum, Dame Lillard, Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Paul George 

Post#22 » by Colbinii » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:32 pm

rate_ wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
Spoiler:
rate_ wrote:How, when it's a 17 game sample off a normal offseason compared to a 4 game sample size off an extremely shortened offseason? You can't be serious.


8.3 is an outlier, just as -0.9 is, and by similar degrees [Mathematically speaking]. Butler never eclipsed a 4.5 OBPM in the post-season and all-of-a-sudden puts together a post-season which nearly DOUBLES his career high post-season and you DON'T think it is an outlier?

At this point in time, mathematically speaking, 8.3 is an outlier. That is what I am talking about, the term Outlier is a mathematical term which has a mathematical definition.

Jimmy's overall 3-year run in Miami in the playoffs:

42 games | 24/7/6/2 | 5.4 OBPM | 2.1 DBPM | 24.9 PER | 59.1 TS

If you combine the sample size of his last 3 playoffs, Jimmy's OBPM still averages out to 5.4, which is higher than Tatum's OBPM last 3 playoffs (2.4), any consecutive 3-year playoff prime of Paul George (highest by OBPM is 2.8 with Indiana from combined 2014 & 2016-17 seasons). Dame's last 3 playoff runs in combined 26 games has an average OBPM of 6.7, which is higher than Jimmy. But Jimmy's clear advantage in DBPM (2.1 to -0.3) makes him to edge out Dame in overall playoff BPM (7.5 to 6.4). Jimmy also had deeper playoff runs against elite defenses, bigger sample size and more memorable series performances.


Okay, so Jimmy has the best 3 year playoff run by your metrics.

By the way, why do you like DBPM as a defensive metric? I don't, which is why I only posted OBPM.
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Re: Better Player During Prime: Jayson Tatum, Dame Lillard, Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Paul George 

Post#23 » by AEnigma » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:58 pm

2019-21 Paul George: +3.8 on-court, +7.2 on/off, +5.26 LEBRON

2020-22 Butler: +1.6 on-court, +2.8 on/off, +2.92 LEBRON

:thinking:
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Re: Better Player During Prime: Jayson Tatum, Dame Lillard, Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Paul George 

Post#24 » by Colbinii » Fri Oct 28, 2022 1:55 pm

AEnigma wrote:2019-21 Paul George: +3.8 on-court, +7.2 on/off, +5.26 LEBRON

2020-22 Butler: +1.6 on-court, +2.8 on/off, +2.92 LEBRON

:thinking:


Playoff RAPTOR
Butler [2020-22]: +3.3 per year
George [2019-21]: +8.2 per year
Tatum [2020-22]: +3.7 per year
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Re: Better Player During Prime: Jayson Tatum, Dame Lillard, Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Paul George 

Post#25 » by Colbinii » Fri Oct 28, 2022 1:57 pm

rate_ wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
Spoiler:
rate_ wrote:How, when it's a 17 game sample off a normal offseason compared to a 4 game sample size off an extremely shortened offseason? You can't be serious.


8.3 is an outlier, just as -0.9 is, and by similar degrees [Mathematically speaking]. Butler never eclipsed a 4.5 OBPM in the post-season and all-of-a-sudden puts together a post-season which nearly DOUBLES his career high post-season and you DON'T think it is an outlier?

At this point in time, mathematically speaking, 8.3 is an outlier. That is what I am talking about, the term Outlier is a mathematical term which has a mathematical definition.

Jimmy's overall 3-year run in Miami in the playoffs:

42 games | 24/7/6/2 | 5.4 OBPM | 2.1 DBPM | 24.9 PER | 59.1 TS

If you combine the sample size of his last 3 playoffs, Jimmy's OBPM still averages out to 5.4, which is higher than Tatum's OBPM last 3 playoffs (2.4), any consecutive 3-year playoff prime of Paul George (highest by OBPM is 2.8 with Indiana from combined 2014 & 2016-17 seasons). Dame's last 3 playoff runs in combined 26 games has an average OBPM of 6.7, which is higher than Jimmy. But Jimmy's clear advantage in DBPM (2.1 to -0.3) makes him to edge out Dame in overall playoff BPM (7.5 to 6.4). Jimmy also had deeper playoff runs against elite defenses, bigger sample size and more memorable series performances.


Harden PS [2015-2021]: 8.2 BPM
Wade PS [2005-2012]: 7.4 BPM

Harden > Wade confirmed. Glad we all agree.
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Re: Better Player During Prime: Jayson Tatum, Dame Lillard, Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Paul George 

Post#26 » by Colbinii » Fri Oct 28, 2022 1:59 pm

CP3 PS [2011-2017]: 8.6 BPM

CP3 >> Wade

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