Jayson Tatum v Luka Doncic

[MyUniBroDavis]

which stats would make the case for Tatum? in addition to all the stuff posted above, we're talking 31.7 vs 26.2 PER, 0.273 vs 0.217 WS48, and 11.1 vs 6.7 BPM. those are just massive differences. and i'm not sure how much the defensive difference could mean if the celtics are 17th in defense and the mavs are 8th. and this is with tatum's FTr and TS% way above his career numbers, so we'll have to see if it is sustainable.

and as also mentioned, they just aren't the same in the playoffs. luka has thrown down 3 massive playoffs already and, for all the talk of how well tatum played last year, a 17.6 PER / 4.5 BPM playoff run is not blowing anyone's skirt up.

Like LukaTheGOAT showed, more advanced metrics show a very similar picture as the boxscore metrics(as it honestly does quite often) but Tatum does have a pretty clear and big advantage in terms of raw +-. Tatum is currently 5th in the league at +129, while Luka is 61st at +51.

Some people shun the boxscore metrics and even the boxscore/+- composite metrics like EPM, RAPTOR and LEBRON, while pretty much regarding +- (whether raw +- or RAPM) as the "true impact" of a player so I guess those people could make a statistical case for Tatum at the moment?

In the context of 1 year composite metrics are gonna beat out raw RAPM. The fact that they’re more predictive than actual RAPM hints to me that they’re ability to stabilize noise works. Not RAPTOR tho.

If you view RAPM as impact = player impact + noise, the composite metrics are gonna be player impact + noise + the composite part, but noise is gonna be mitigated. Composites generally are more predictive which would imply it’s a better measurement of player goodness

The argument against it I’d think is that using different things seperately in their own context has more value, I kind of see that but at the same time, in a general sense they’re gonna be more accurate outside of outliers for players that don’t fit patterns

That is probably the bigger issue with composite metrics, as far as I know I think composite metrics are usually box score priors + RAPM + any other adjustment here or there

There’s nothing wrong with box score priors neccessarily but maybe you can argue assigning a linear value generalized to each player isn’t gonna be max accurate because of different roles

I think Rapm doesnt meaningfully look at combinations fit which is kind of a big deal to me if it’s true though, and the justification is on a large scale it doesn’t mean much, that’s not something that you’re gonna be able to see that’s way because it’s very much on an individual basis.






At the same time again I think luka easily lol, bro nice. Tatums been great but I think I’d wanna see him in the playoffs

[AEnigma]

Ok, so let's talk about defense where Tatum is presumably making up a bunch of ground. Who's he guarding?

Spoiler:

For the most part, he isn't guarding anyone. Demar torched him but outside of that it's mostly 3rd-5th options. Brown, Smart, White, and Horford are taking all the hard assignments. Those guys are doing the heavy lifting defensively.

I think most would agree Tatum is a much better defender than Luka, but given his role he isn't a difference maker on that end. Interestingly, Celtics are -5 pts per 100 better defensively with Tatum on the bench.

I would say Luka so far this season too and would also agree with those saying even before this season he would be their choice in in the playoffs, but this feels a bit slimy. You want to talk about man defence when Tatum’s main offering is his excellent help defence (take a look at some of the guys Giannis is “assigned”…). You want to talk about his defensive on/off numbers on NBA.com being a reason to value him less while also just breezing past the giant overall on/off disparity between him and Luka every year. So Luka is obviously better on offence by a lot, we all agree, no need to look at any on/off numbers or anything, but also, man, are we sure Tatum is that much better on defence, I mean, look at his on/off!

[VanWest82]

Ok, so let's talk about defense where Tatum is presumably making up a bunch of ground. Who's he guarding?

Spoiler:

For the most part, he isn't guarding anyone. Demar torched him but outside of that it's mostly 3rd-5th options. Brown, Smart, White, and Horford are taking all the hard assignments. Those guys are doing the heavy lifting defensively.

I think most would agree Tatum is a much better defender than Luka, but given his role he isn't a difference maker on that end. Interestingly, Celtics are -5 pts per 100 better defensively with Tatum on the bench.

I would say Luka so far this season too and would also agree with those saying even before this season he would be their choice in in the playoffs, but this feels a bit slimy. You want to talk about man defence when Tatum’s main offering is his excellent help defence (take a look at some of the guys Giannis is “assigned”…). You want to talk about his defensive on/off numbers on NBA.com being a reason to value him less while also just breezing past the giant overall on/off disparity between him and Luka every year. So Luka is obviously better on offence by a lot, we all agree, no need to look at any on/off numbers or anything, but also, man, are we sure Tatum is that much better on defence, I mean, look at his on/off!

If you're really helping that much it shows up in contests. Al Horford is really helping that much. Brook Lopez is REALLY helping that much. Giannis is mostly backline weakside as the last line of defense. I mean, great defender. Does his job. But he's the defensive equivalent of a sharp shooter hitting 50% on threes who you can't leave open and so he opens up the floor, but who only has the 3rd highest USG among the starters. Also, guys (i.e. 3-5th options) are shooting their average vs. Tatum. They're shooting -9 vs. Giannis. Let's be careful with the comps.

The defensive on/off comment was an add on not the main point, and one provided solely to help combat the notion here and elsewhere that Tatum's plus/minus numbers are irrefutable evidence of his superior impact despite not really having the role responsibility to back it up. It's no less slimy than you to breezing past how Tatum doesn't guard anyone of note and assuming excellent help defense without providing any evidence on the subject whatsoever.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Mavs are 0-5 when Luka scores under 30 points this season.