Portability: Jokic or Doncic?

[DCasey91]

It doesn’t though BelgradeNugget. I don’t include that series because he was 23 pre prime, Luka atm is playing with house money and has already exceeded my expectations by a mile. You’d have to go back a long long way to find a player that’s sub age 25 that won everything.

And you are mistaken once again with comparing Luka with Jokic. I said before stop being results orientated on who wins that’s series it’s about portability and it’s clear as day there’s structural problems with Jokic as your last line of defence.

If it becomes a consistent pattern in the playoffs the Nuggets FO has to do something about it or they are going around in circles.

You aren’t going to win with league average defence in the playoffs. Simple as that

[AEnigma]

Yeah we will see another complaint about sample size being too small to conclude his defence holds up in the postseason, and we will keep seeing that until Denver decides to skew their roster around covering for him.

Who knows, though, maybe they can do that at the deadline.

Or they already did it. And sample size is big enough, we saw that his defense can hold in the postseason, just go at the beginning of the discussion, don't be lazy.

Ohhhh okay, so because it was not abysmal in 2019, that is what we go off. That is the only sample we need. 118 average on-court defensive rating over the past four postseasons, but why oh why would we look at anything other than the farthest removed year. As we all know, it is only fair to look at a player’s failings in the situation that covers them up best.

Like I said, classic David Robinson energy.

[OhayoKD]

Yeah we will see another complaint about sample size being too small to conclude his defence holds up in the postseason, and we will keep seeing that until Denver decides to skew their roster around covering for him.

Who knows, though, maybe they can do that at the deadline.

Or they already did it. And sample size is big enough, we saw that his defense can hold in the postseason, just go at the beginning of the discussion, don't be lazy.

Ohhhh okay, so because it was not abysmal in 2019, that is what we go off. That is the only sample we need. 118 average on-court defensive rating over the past four postseasons, but why oh why would we look at anything other than the farthest removed year. As we all know, it is only fair to look at a player’s failings in the situation that covers them up best.

Like I said, classic David Robinson energy.

I mean, in this instance, when the farthest removed year is the only one featuring a contention level cast, I don't know that's completely unfair.

[BelgradeNugget]

It doesn’t though BelgradeNugget. I don’t include that series because he was 23 pre prime, Luka atm is playing with house money and has already exceeded my expectations by a mile. You’d have to go back a long long way to find a player that’s sub age 25 that won everything.

And you are mistaken once again with comparing Luka with Jokic. I said before stop being results orientated on who wins that’s series it’s about portability and it’s clear as day there’s structural problems with Jokic as your last line of defence.

If it becomes a consistent pattern in the playoffs the Nuggets FO has to do something about it or they are going around in circles.

You aren’t going to win with league average defence in the playoffs. Simple as that

Well in his 1st POs at 23, before his prime, was the only time he had competent defenders around him. We can't use anything against Jokic as part of team defense when he didn't have good defenders around him after that. Again about Jokic's defense - last year GSW had 2nd best defense with Looney as their - as you call it, last line of defense. Looney is no better tha Jokic. Difference with Nuggets - they had Green, Wiggins. Enough. I already gave you list of PFs Jokic can play with.

About Nuggets FO, they already did it as I explained. If you replaced Morris, Barton and Green with Murray, KCP, MPJ you get one of the top defensive lineups among starting lineups in the NBA. But they didn't prove it in POs. Well Nuggets never had anything similar to that lineup in POs except in 2019. So we have to wait and see.

About Luka, he is great and I won't say that he is too ball-dominant and you can't win that way, because of the simple fact that he never had good offensive creator with him. If Dallas gets him one then we can judge his style.

We are running in circles with this.

You: Nuggets can't built good defense with Jokic, must do something.
Me: Give you proof they did something and built good defense with Jokic
You: I don't count that, he must prove it in POs
Me: Present proof that he did it in POs with right personnel
You: I don't count it he was too young
Me: I'm out good night

[OhayoKD]

It doesn’t though BelgradeNugget. I don’t include that series because he was 23 pre prime, Luka atm is playing with house money and has already exceeded my expectations by a mile. You’d have to go back a long long way to find a player that’s sub age 25 that won everything.

And you are mistaken once again with comparing Luka with Jokic. I said before stop being results orientated on who wins that’s series it’s about portability and it’s clear as day there’s structural problems with Jokic as your last line of defence.

If it becomes a consistent pattern in the playoffs the Nuggets FO has to do something about it or they are going around in circles.

You aren’t going to win with league average defence in the playoffs. Simple as that

Well in his 1st POs at 23, before his prime, was the only time he had competent defenders around him. We can't use anything against Jokic as part of team defense when he didn't have good defenders around him after that.

I'm sympathetic to your point, but I think "we can't use anything" is a bit extreme. Weigh it less or put an asterix next to it, but it's not nothing imo

[BelgradeNugget]

It doesn’t though BelgradeNugget. I don’t include that series because he was 23 pre prime, Luka atm is playing with house money and has already exceeded my expectations by a mile. You’d have to go back a long long way to find a player that’s sub age 25 that won everything.

And you are mistaken once again with comparing Luka with Jokic. I said before stop being results orientated on who wins that’s series it’s about portability and it’s clear as day there’s structural problems with Jokic as your last line of defence.

If it becomes a consistent pattern in the playoffs the Nuggets FO has to do something about it or they are going around in circles.

You aren’t going to win with league average defence in the playoffs. Simple as that

Well in his 1st POs at 23, before his prime, was the only time he had competent defenders around him. We can't use anything against Jokic as part of team defense when he didn't have good defenders around him after that.

I'm sympathetic to your point, but I think "we can't use anything" is a bit extreme. Weigh it less or put an asterix next to it, but it's not nothing imo

Ok, you're right, but 35 yo Jeff Green, Morris, Burton, injured MPJ (Phoenix series), Campazzo, Rivers, Craig, Harris and Millsap on last legs were starters for Nuggets in last 3 Pos. Not all-nba defense players exactly.
Same logic with Luka, is he disappointing this year being 10th in the west. Well with this team what to expect? Can they be better with better players around him? Yes.

[AEnigma]

We can't use anything against Jokic as part of team defense when he didn't have good defenders around him after that. Again about Jokic's defense - last year GSW had 2nd best defense with Looney as their - as you call it, last line of defense. Looney is no better tha Jokic. Difference with Nuggets - they had Green, Wiggins. Enough. I already gave you list of PFs Jokic can play with.

About Nuggets FO, they already did it as I explained. If you replaced Morris, Barton and Green with Murray, KCP, MPJ you get one of the top defensive lineups among starting lineups in the NBA. But they didn't prove it in POs. Well Nuggets never had anything similar to that lineup in POs except in 2019. So we have to wait and see.

About Luka, he is great and I won't say that he is too ball-dominant and you can't win that way, because of the simple fact that he never had good offensive creator with him. If Dallas gets him one then we can judge his style.

We are running in circles with this.

You: Nuggets can't built good defense with Jokic, must do something.
Me: Give you proof they did something and built good defense with Jokic

… but they did not unless your bar for “good” is “positive”.

You: I don't count that, he must prove it in POs
Me: Present proof that he did it in POs with right personnel
You: I don't count it he was too young
Me: I'm out good night

Yeah being merely mediocre that one postseason is not a flex.

Literally everyone agrees that Jokic needs better defensive help. But the reason he absolutely needs better defensive help is because he is not a particularly good defensive centre! With poor help around him the defence will be a heinous liability against good offences, and with average help the defence will still be middling. You can try to win with a middling defence, but history of the league says you are going to have quite an uphill climb.

[BelgradeNugget]

… but they did not unless your bar for “good” is “positive”.

no my bar for good is top 3 defensive lineup in NBA, read again

Yeah being merely mediocre that one postseason is not a flex.

being average in POs against top offenses is not merely mediocre, it is good.

Literally everyone agrees that Jokic needs better defensive help. But the reason he absolutely needs better defensive help is because he is not a particularly good defensive centre! With poor help around him the defence will be a heinous liability against good offences, and with average help the defence will still be middling.

here we agree most, only not in part were he is not a particularly good defensive center, or to put it more precise - he is very good in some parts of defense (read again) and bad is some other (read again)

You can try to win with a middling defence, but history of the league says you are going to have quite an uphill climb.

or you can build team and defensive schemes to maximize good parts of his defense and cover for bad parts of his defense (if you read again you can find explanations to this too).

[DCasey91]

that defensive scheme won’t work in the playoffs BelgradeNuggets it’s too exploitable. Just get good defenders around him, no you have to attend to the elephant in the room.

If I had to compare stylistically it would be a more of Pau Gasol/Bynum or Dirk/Chandler setup with gun defence from your ballhandler in Kobe RIP/Fisher and Kidd.

Whereas with Luka he’s shown just as much of a ceiling raiser as Jokic but at a much younger age. Did you see what he did to the Suns? Both have had poor list management around them so it isn’t their fault at all.

But which would you choose

Lebron setup
Dirk setup

Historically Lebron has led a bunch of numerous different setups to success and I do believe it’ll be the same for Doncic because his resiliency scoring wise is unprecedented for his age. Finals championship teams are literally stacked with resilient scorers. It’s of course easier to hide Luka than it is Jokic. There’s no argument from me on that

If you want to go down the line of not having a true backup behind Jokic then be prepared to be disappointed. I’m 100% certain that’ll be the case in due time.

And then argument becomes well Luka is a ball hog which is not correct at all. Look at the WR% and rating when Porzingis was healthy it was very impressive it’s just that people get the wrong impression because him and Hardaway sh*t the bed in the last game of the series. Then people say well Brunson is flourishing, is he really or is he just shot jacking?

Everyone on the Mavs team has had career impact and that’s by and large due to Luka being a historic player for his age bracket.

[OhayoKD]

that defensive scheme won’t work in the playoffs BelgradeNuggets it’s too exploitable. Just get good defenders around him, no you have to attend to the elephant in the room.

If I had to compare stylistically it would be a more of Pau Gasol/Bynum or Dirk/Chandler setup with gun defence from your ballhandler in Kobe RIP/Fisher and Kidd.

Whereas with Luka he’s shown just as much of a ceiling raiser as Jokic but at a much younger age. Did you see what he did to the Suns? Both have had poor list management around them so it isn’t their fault at all.

But which would you choose

Lebron setup
Dirk setup

Historically Lebron has led a bunch of numerous different setups to success and I do believe it’ll be the same for Doncic because his resiliency scoring wise is unprecedented for his age. Finals championship teams are literally stacked with resilient scorers. It’s of course easier to hide Luka than it is Jokic. There’s no argument from me on that

If you want to go down the line of not having a true backup behind Jokic then be prepared to be disappointed. I’m 100% certain that’ll be the case in due time.

A big part of lebron leading a bunch of different setups to success is his defensive impact. Lebron has a extensive track record of anchoring good to elite rs and playoff d's. Moreover, Lebron can ramp up defensive impact when his offensive influence is diminished(see: 2015).

Dirk is also a questoinable comparison as jokic is a vastly better passer

Magic is probably a better analog for luka, and bird would probably be a better analog for jokic

[DCasey91]

that defensive scheme won’t work in the playoffs BelgradeNuggets it’s too exploitable. Just get good defenders around him, no you have to attend to the elephant in the room.

If I had to compare stylistically it would be a more of Pau Gasol/Bynum or Dirk/Chandler setup with gun defence from your ballhandler in Kobe RIP/Fisher and Kidd.

Whereas with Luka he’s shown just as much of a ceiling raiser as Jokic but at a much younger age. Did you see what he did to the Suns? Both have had poor list management around them so it isn’t their fault at all.

But which would you choose

Lebron setup
Dirk setup

Historically Lebron has led a bunch of numerous different setups to success and I do believe it’ll be the same for Doncic because his resiliency scoring wise is unprecedented for his age. Finals championship teams are literally stacked with resilient scorers. It’s of course easier to hide Luka than it is Jokic. There’s no argument from me on that

If you want to go down the line of not having a true backup behind Jokic then be prepared to be disappointed. I’m 100% certain that’ll be the case in due time.

A big part of lebron leading a bunch of different setups to success is his defensive impact. Lebron has a extensive track record of anchoring good to elite rs and playoff d's. Moreover, Lebron can ramp up defensive impact when his offensive influence is diminished(see: 2015).

Dirk is also a questoinable comparison as jokic is a vastly better passer

Magic is probably a better analog for luka, and bird would probably be a better analog for jokic

True I’m just using a stylistic example offensively I also think Jokic is the right mix of Dirk+Bird, his midrange FG% on volume + passing rating is unbelievable.

Dirk comp is the height + shooting ability especially at the midrange/3pt which if you look at it ain’t that far apart. They also encounter the same defensive problems at the back. I think they are closely related if you’re looking for the correct blueprint moving forward. Both are bigger defensive liabilities than Bird because of mobility.

Jokic is at 24% of FGAs on 3 ball in the playoffs
Dirk was 15%

Just sub in the midrange volume

Makes sense nowadays due to modern play/analysis

Both to me are right there offensively to win a championship of course but with Jokic personally you have to address the main problem before you can realistically be a championship contender.

[AEnigma]

… but they did not unless your bar for “good” is “positive”.

no my bar for good is top 3 defensive lineup in NBA, read again

Okay man let me know how that 170 minute sample holds up for you half a year from now.

Yeah being merely mediocre that one postseason is not a flex.

being average in POs against top offenses is not merely mediocre, it is good.

rEaD aGaiN

they look worse when you actually compare how his opponents played against different opponents in the playoffs - something Ben Taylor calls cDRtg at +2.1.

Literally everyone agrees that Jokic needs better defensive help. But the reason he absolutely needs better defensive help is because he is not a particularly good defensive centre! With poor help around him the defence will be a heinous liability against good offences, and with average help the defence will still be middling.

here we agree most, only not in part were he is not a particularly good defensive center, or to put it more precise - he is very good in some parts of defense (read again) and bad is some other (read again)

You can try to win with a middling defence, but history of the league says you are going to have quite an uphill climb.

or you can build team and defensive schemes to maximize good parts of his defense and cover for bad parts of his defense (if you read again you can find explanations to this too).

Yes, and again, if you think that is what the Nuggets have with MPJ, godspeed.

[bigboi]

Jokic, Luka is a ball hog lmao

[BelgradeNugget]

no my bar for good is top 3 defensive lineup in NBA, read again

Okay man let me know how that 170 minute sample holds up for you half a year from now.

Yes, and again, if you think that is what the Nuggets have with MPJ, godspeed.

Well 170 is not a big sample size I know...it is not so small for the beggining of the season... but maybe if we look at last year...oh look what I have just found. In first 9 games of the last season (because MPJ played only 9 games) Nuggets had 2nd best DEFRTG

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?Outcome=&sort=DEF_RATING&Season=2021-22&DateTo=11%2F06%2F2021

and guess who had the best DEFRTG among Nuggets players...

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?Season=2021-22&TeamID=1610612743&dir=A&sort=DEF_RATING

... this year one of the best ....

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?Season=2022-23&TeamID=1610612743&dir=A&sort=DEF_RATING

oh I can't believe what I'm seeing here, maybe, just maybe I should ask some of the Nuggets fans, I guess they know more about their team than I do. And before you point out to his first 2 seasons, players improve, you know. And before people start talking about eye test, no he is not lock-down wing defender, Nuggets use AG for it, but he compliments AG and Jokic perfectly on O and D

Attention: for those of you who knows everything don't read. For those who wants to find out why some Nuggets fans have some strange opinions interesting read. Something about defensive schemes with Jokic I was talking about.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/11/2/18048144/denver-nuggets-defense

And last thing here. If you want to know what is Nuggets biggest problem, you can read just first page from last night game tread.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2245459

The most used Nuggets lineup (starting lineup again) was the worst defensive one with 3 guards Murray/KCP/Brown, I already wrote about that. BTW Malone brought Ryan Saunders ex Minnesota coach, also known as "defensive guru", to be his defensive coordinator. That is all from me people, bye

[AEnigma]

no my bar for good is top 3 defensive lineup in NBA, read again

Okay man let me know how that 170 minute sample holds up for you half a year from now.

Yes, and again, if you think that is what the Nuggets have with MPJ, godspeed.

Well 170 is not a big sample size I know...it is not so small for the beggining of the season... but maybe if we look at last year...oh look what I have just found. In first 9 games of the last season (because MPJ played only 9 games) Nuggets had 2nd best DEFRTG

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?Outcome=&sort=DEF_RATING&Season=2021-22&DateTo=11%2F06%2F2021

… With a barely positive net rating and with Brooklyn also in the top five.

and guess who had the best DEFRTG among Nuggets players...

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?Season=2021-22&TeamID=1610612743&dir=A&sort=DEF_RATING

… with a poor offensive rating and soft net rating…

... this year one of the best ....

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?Season=2022-23&TeamID=1610612743&dir=A&sort=DEF_RATING

… with a securely lower offensive rating and net rating than the four other typical starters…

oh I can't believe what I'm seeing here, maybe, just maybe I should ask some of the Nuggets fans, I guess they know more about their team than I do.

Probably, but the problem is that team knowledge gets offset by a willingness to drink their own kool-aid.

And before you point out to his first 2 seasons, players improve, you know. And before people start talking about eye test, no he is not lock-down wing defender, Nuggets use AG for it, but he compliments AG and Jokic perfectly on O and D

So has his offence significantly worsened?

Attention: for those of you who knows everything don't read.

Cherrypicking some small sample lineup splits is not knowledge.

For those who wants to find out why some Nuggets fans have some strange opinions interesting read. Something about defensive schemes with Jokic I was talking about.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/11/2/18048144/denver-nuggets-defense

Weird move when the recurring criticism has been that the team’s defensive scheme does not seem to hold up especially well in the postseason.

And last thing here. If you want to know what is Nuggets biggest problem, you can read just first page from last night game tread.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2245459

The most used Nuggets lineup (starting lineup again) was the worst defensive one with 3 guards Murray/KCP/Brown, I already wrote about that. BTW Malone brought Ryan Saunders ex Minnesota coach, also known as "defensive guru", to be his defensive coordinator. That is all from me people, bye

And what if maybe, just maybe, the coaching staff knows even more about the team than you do?

In any case, if your bench is utter garbage and your sixth man is a guard, yeah, seems like it will be tough to rely wholly on the defensive brilliance of MPJ to carry you through the postseason.

[BelgradeNugget]

… With a barely positive net rating and with Brooklyn also in the top five.
… with a poor offensive rating and soft net rating…
… with a securely lower offensive rating and net rating than the four other typical starters…

You got it right with all of this, but why are you talking about net rating and offensive rating when we were talking about defensive rating and defense? Run out of arguments?

So has his offence significantly worsened?

Yes thanks for asking, he had back procedure last season, missed the most of it so it will take time for him to get back to were he was offensively, before injury

Probably, but the problem is that team knowledge gets offset by a willingness to drink their own kool-aid.
Cherrypicking some small sample lineup splits is not knowledge.

Well I'm at least trying to build my argument on some stats, articles...small sample size is better than nothing...you just know, right

EDIT:

For those who wants to find out why some Nuggets fans have some strange opinions interesting read. Something about defensive schemes with Jokic I was talking about.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/11/2/18048144/denver-nuggets-defense

Weird move when the recurring criticism has been that the team’s defensive scheme does not seem to hold up especially well in the postseason.

Unfortunately we never had a chance to see how this scheme will hold up in POs because we never had a chance to see it with right personnel. Injuries, remember, I already wrote about that

In any case, if your bench is utter garbage and your sixth man is a guard, yeah, seems like it will be tough to rely wholly on the defensive brilliance of MPJ to carry you through the postseason.

Everybody has right to have opinion based on - good arguments and facts/bad arguments and facts built on small sample sizes that lead to wrong conclusions (pick one)- in my case, or simply on the fact that you just know better

[AEnigma]

… With a barely positive net rating and with Brooklyn also in the top five.
… with a poor offensive rating and soft net rating…
… with a securely lower offensive rating and net rating than the four other typical starters…

You got it right with all of this, but why are you talking about net rating and offensive rating when we were talking about defensive rating and defense? Run out of arguments?

Unless you think MPJ forgot how to play offence in exchange for learning defence — and if he did, I would probably take that trade lol — seems to me to be more clearly noise rather than any meaningful pattern.

So has his offence significantly worsened?

Yes thanks for asking, he had back procedure last season, missed the most of it so it will take time for him to get back to were he was offensively, before injury

So his back is okay enough to be arguably the team’s key defender, but not to thrive on offence?

Probably, but the problem is that team knowledge gets offset by a willingness to drink their own kool-aid.
Cherrypicking some small sample lineup splits is not knowledge.

Well I'm at least trying to build my argument on some stats, articles...small sample size is better than nothing...you just know, right

If you want to make a film argument for MPJ becoming a legitimately valuable defender who you think will fix their playoff issues, and then as support gesture at those, fine. But most non-fans are going to be far more cautious until at least the season is more complete, and some of us will reserve judgment for the playoffs.

For those who wants to find out why some Nuggets fans have some strange opinions interesting read. Something about defensive schemes with Jokic I was talking about.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/11/2/18048144/denver-nuggets-defense

Weird move when the recurring criticism has been that the team’s defensive scheme does not seem to hold up especially well in the postseason.

Unfortunately we never had a chance to see how this scheme will hold up in POs because we never had a chance to see it with right personnel. Injuries, remember, I already wrote about that.

Yes, very sad how they stumbled upon the perfect recipe four years ago and just cannot replicate the ingredients.

In any case, if your bench is utter garbage and your sixth man is a guard, yeah, seems like it will be tough to rely wholly on the defensive brilliance of MPJ to carry you through the postseason.

Everybody has right to have opinion based on - good arguments and facts/bad arguments and facts built on small sample sizes that lead to wrong conclusions (pick one)- in my case, or simply on the fact that you just know better

I do not know what you expect when you want people to throw out a career long postseason trend because they lacked the perfect ingredients and then just accept that MPJ is in fact that perfect postseason ingredient because he has some good defensive correlations in small samples.

[BelgradeNugget]

Unless you think MPJ forgot how to play offence in exchange for learning defence — and if he did, I would probably take that trade lol — seems to me to be more clearly noise rather than any meaningful pattern.

So his back is okay enough to be arguably the team’s key defender, but not to thrive on offence?

In 2020-21 season MPJ had 2nd best OFRTG and 3rd worst DEFRTG among Nuggets players with 10+ mpg
In 2021-22 season MPJ had 3nd worst OFRTG and the best DEFRTG among Nuggets players with 10+ mpg
In 2022-23 season MPJ had 5th best OFRTG (worst among starters) and 3rd best DEFRTG among Nuggets players (best among starters) with 10+ mpg

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?CF=MIN*GE*10&Season=2022-23&TeamID=1610612743&dir=A&sort=DEF_RATING

What was the question again?

I'm not talking what I would like I'm talking about facts. Is it noise? Maybe, but for those who watch Nuggets games, and know something about their defensive and offensive schemes it could also be pattern.

If you want to make a film argument for MPJ becoming a legitimately valuable defender who you think will fix their playoff issues, and then as support gesture at those, fine. But most non-fans are going to be far more cautious until at least the season is more complete, and some of us will reserve judgment for the playoffs.

No I won't make a film argument, and I can give you 100 arguments, you will not accept any, because you know better, based on watching them play here and there. It is OK to to be far more cautious and reserve judgment for the playoffs. I just based my arguments on facts in this and last RS, and Nuggets POs last 4 years. So we must wait for POs and see.

On all other questions you already received answers, I won't repeat myself.