A GOAT Candidate Is Worth Two Equal Value Players of What Tier?

[eminence]

I'll come at it along two axis.

Skill/talent/whatever you want to call it and fit.

Many levels to skill, but rough tiering here with GOAT/MVP/AllNBA/Allstar, then further down the line. Simplifying fit into Good/Okay/Poor.

Levels of duos and GOAT candidate (not including duos of GOAT candidates, I don't think one has ever happened):

Good fitting MVP duo (eg CP3/Howard)
Okay fitting MVP duo (eg CP3/KD)
GOAT Candidate (eg LeBron)
Poor fitting MVP duo (eg CP3/Nash)
Good fitting All-NBA duo (eg Billups/Gasol)
and so on...

I'd say the GOAT candidate has a lower floor than the 2 below it (eg the Wolves with KG), but a higher ceiling that is reasonably attainable through the addition of an Allstar level player (eg one Sam Cassell), overall I side with the higher upside with the GOAT candidate.

In APM type terms:

GOAT = +7
MVP = +5.5
All-NBA = +4
Allstar = +2.5
Starter = +1

I think you should presume being able to put a +1 guy in the GOAT candidates #2 spot (though the '06/'07 Wolves might have a word), and that would put you in range of the 2x All-NBA squad. A lower end Allstar partner isn't an unreasonable goal and puts you half between the 2x All-NBA/MVP levels.

[OhayoKD]

I'll come at it along two axis.

Skill/talent/whatever you want to call it and fit.

Many levels to skill, but rough tiering here with GOAT/MVP/AllNBA/Allstar, then further down the line. Simplifying fit into Good/Okay/Poor.

Levels of duos and GOAT candidate (not including duos of GOAT candidates, I don't think one has ever happened):

Good fitting MVP duo (eg CP3/Howard)
Okay fitting MVP duo (eg CP3/KD)
GOAT Candidate (eg LeBron)
Poor fitting MVP duo (eg CP3/Nash)
Good fitting All-NBA duo (eg Billups/Gasol)
and so on...

I'd say the GOAT candidate has a lower floor than the 2 below it (eg the Wolves with KG), but a higher ceiling that is reasonably attainable through the addition of an Allstar level player (eg one Sam Cassell), overall I side with the higher upside with the GOAT candidate.

In APM type terms:

GOAT = +7
MVP = +5.5
All-NBA = +4
Allstar = +2.5
Starter = +1

I think you should presume being able to put a +1 guy in the GOAT candidates #2 spot (though the '06/'07 Wolves might have a word), and that would put you in range of the 2x All-NBA squad. A lower end Allstar partner isn't an unreasonable goal and puts you half between the 2x All-NBA/MVP levels.

For posterity going to list the best looking "real apm"(sample size is not even) for GOAT candidates(and players who grade similarly) and y'all can work off that I guess. (range is based on best two scoring seasons)
+9/+8: Lebron
+8/+7: Duncan, D-Rob
+7/+6: KG, MJ, Curry

Idk quite how you translate apm to wins added but I'll also post unregularized wowy(as outlier value gets misdistributed via apm and wowyr):

(Caveat, while Russell doesn't score so high here based on wins, high championship probaility required a much lower srs in his era and Russell should probably be seen as the "most likely to win" individual relative to era, at least for his prime). Same idea where range goes off two best signals

40/30 win lift: Lebron, Hakeem, KG
30/20 win lift: Kareem, Curry, Bird, D-rob, Giannis
20/10 win lift: Jordan, Shaq, Russell

I presume one of you smarter people can derive a +/- from that.

Sort of depends on what you consider a goat candidate, but there's more value-fluctuation for people around that tier than people acknowledge I think