1995 Finals with 2000 Shaq

[Laimbeer]

If the 1995 Finals had been played with Shaq at his peak, who wins? All other players in 1995 form.

[tsherkin]

I don't think anything changes. Shaq could score just fine in that series. Like, maybe they win a game? But Houston was demonstrably superior to Orlando, and Nick Anderson and Dennis Scott blew chuuuuuuunks. Shaq being peak Shaq doesn't change that. And I don't think the 30 extra pounds would have meant too much more. As it stood, he scored 28 ppg on almost 60% from the field, right? It's not like he just stood there and it took it from Olajuwon.

[henshao]

The big dent Dream made on Diesel seems to be turnovers, and I'm not sure 2000 Shaq is going to improve in that area any

[Owly]

What are the assumptions (I see "1995 form" but at what point average or finals)?

If it's everyone else at the level they were in that finals (with adjustments based on greater support or D[?] from/by Shaq then being worth an extra net 7 points per game on top of what he already gave (just to get to even in points dif) per game is a big ask. He was effective. Scott and Anderson just shot really badly, Houston's 2 through 6 shot attempters (guys not directly covered by Shaq) all had Ortgs at or north of 114.

If it's play it again then, without any Shaq change, Orlando wings typically probably play better, Houston outside players probably play a little worse, Orlando has homecourt ... I guess it depends first on what your prior assumptions of the series odds are and then on the gap between the Shaq seasons as to whether you think a different Shaq crosses a particular probability threshold.