migya wrote:Can you show where you got that information?
I assume you're referring to mTOV% (as all the rest is easily found on bbref [or easily calculated where rTS% is concerned]).
Modified TOV% starts with the framework of TOV% [that is on bbref]. TOV% considers only two inputs, turnovers and true shooting attempts:
TOV / (TOV + TSA)
mTOV% then adds in some of the other things a player might be attempting when a turnover is committed: namely playmaking for others (though also rebounding factored in). The formula in its current rendition is:
TOV / (TOV + TSA + [AST * 2.33] + [REB * 0.04])
The rationale behind the modifier (2.33) on assists is that for every pass that is completed [without turnover] for an assist, there is likely MORE THAN one other pass which was completed but the shot was missed [no assist] or the teammate was fouled and sent to the line [also no assist]. To be precise, the formula estimates that for every THREE passes completed for an assist, there were FOUR passes completed on which no assist was awarded.
What transpires immediately after a rebound can sometimes result in a turnover: the occasionaly high risk/high reward outlet pass will sometimes result in a turnover; or [because rebounds typically occur in traffic] a player might be stripped of the ball immediately after securing the rebound. The modifier (0.04) assumes that there is one turnover immediately after rebound once for every 25 rebounds secured. It might be marginally more than that, like 1 out of 20 (would then change modifier to 0.05; though fwiw, such adjustments barely move the figure at all).
While it's true some passes thrown are so basic that it would be hard to commit a turnover [unless one throws it WAY off the mark], the same can be said of some scoring attempts (e.g. a catch and shoot, a face-up shot from the elbow, etc).
Some people have suggested I should make the modifier on assists LARGER, because the players who accrues lots of assists is typically a player with a lot of ball-handling responsibilities [e.g. brings the ball into the front-court, initiates the offense] (which is another activity that can potentially result in a turnover), and they're also players who are likely throwing more NON-assist passes [e.g. basic pass to the wing or ball-reversal to a teammate NOT in immediate position to shoot/score] (which are also activities that could result in a turnover).
Just to give an idea where some other players [
at their own position: Zo compared only to other centers, Nash only to other PG's or "offensive initiators"] land in mTOV% (career rs figures, fwiw; obviously the lower the figure the better):
Chris Paul - 5.96%
Muggsy Bogues - 5.98%
Derek Harper - 7.15%
Mookie Blaylock - 7.28%
Chauncey Billups - 7.37%
Tim Hardaway - 7.38%
Mo Cheeks - 7.49%
Jason Kidd - 8.03%
Eric Snow - 8.06%
Stephen Curry - 8.260%
Steve Nash - 8.264%Magic Johnson - 8.36%
Vern Fleming - 8.50%
Isiah Thomas - 8.53%
Luka Doncic - 8.61%
Russell Westbrook - 8.99%
Gilbert Arenas - 9.16%
James Harden - 9.26%
Al Horford - 6.93%
Dan Issel [minus '77] - 7.71%
Bill Laimbeer - 8.14%
Nikola Jokic - 8.24%
Pau Gasol - 8.58%
Anderson Varejao - 8.86%
Tim Duncan - 8.92%
David Robinson - 9.17%
Ben Wallace - 9.28%
Shaquille O'Neal - 9.38%
Jack Sikma - 9.52%
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ['78-'89] - 9.74%
Joel Embiid - 10.07%
Hakeem Olajuwon - 10.28%
Robert Parish - 11.12%
Patrick Ewing - 11.19%
DeMarcus Cousins - 11.38%
Rudy Gobert - 11.49%
Mel Daniels [minus '77] - 11.58%
Yao Ming - 11.87%
Moses Malone [minus '77] - 12.47%
Alonzo Mourning - 13.01%Artis Gilmore [minus '77] - 13.15%
Dikembe Mutombo - 13.77%
Dwight Howard - 13.78%
Tyson Chandler - 13.89%
Jeff Ruland - 14.49% [the rock-bottom worst career figure I've yet identified, fwiw)
btw, placing a larger modifier on AST with
improve Nash's mTOV% vs the field of PG's, but
worsen Mourning's slightly vs the field of centers.
migya wrote:I've done more than list ppg, that's an untrue statement.
I mis-represented you slightly [for that I'm sorry]; but
only slightly in the portion quoted.
What you DID do [in that quote] was show ONLY pts/100 possession figures (where Zo averaged ~6-7 more than Nash)---no accounting of shooting efficiency or turnover economy, shot-type, etc---and used that as the proof that "Mourning [is] the
significantly better scorer".
Whereas I'd note that:
1) Yes, Mourning averaged 6-7 more pts/100 [gap narrows somewhat in the playoffs, fwiw], but...
2) with shooting efficiency that **trails Nash by >2%.
**And I note, for example, that Mourning's peak TS Added is 212.2, and his 2nd-best season is 140.0. Nash has THREE seasons better than Mourning's best [peaking at 242.8], and
NINE seasons better than Zo's 2nd-best year.
3)
and with worse all-around turnover economy [even relative to position played],
4)
and while having about two-thirds of his buckets assisted (whereas Nash had
fewer than one-third of his assisted).
....From all that I'd seriously question if Mourning is a better scorer
at all. If he is, it certainly is not by any "significant" margin.
Further, you gave the playmaking edge [to Nash] only a vague and dismissive mention (stating in other places that it's a function of position played, little more); and then based on Mourning being [in your view] a somewhat better scorer, declare that Nash
might not be a better offensive player at all (
"if"), and if he is it "isn't by a lot".
I mean......in addition to the question as to whether Zo's even a better
scorer (see above), the gap in creation for others is enormous. The gap in career ast/100 [13.8 vs 1.9] is 11.9........that's more assists/100 than
LeBron James has ever averaged in any season. EVER.
And the peak vs peak or prime vs prime gap is even bigger, fwiw.
That's how large the playmaking divide is. It is like the Grand Canyon of divides. And anyone who watched Nash play knows his assists are largely NOT of the Rondo-variety.
Oh, and he did all of that at the cost of basically NO additional turnovers relative to Zo.
As a further point of evidence of who was better
offensively, I'll [for s***'s and giggles] bring up some numbers which I know from past experience you will disregard.....
Zo's BEST ORAPM was +2.99 [his 2nd-best is +1.99].
Nash's ORAPM was never lower than +4 in any of the SEVEN years from '05 to '11, peaking at a monstrous [
historically GOAT-level] +7.9 (fwiw, that is a larger positive than any DRAPM that has ever been achieved
by anyone).
That was one of TWO seasons above +7, and he had
FIVE that were above +6 (that is: FIVE seasons that were
more than double Zo's best).
He had at least one or two others of +2 or bigger. And fwiw, I think his worth [as measured by RAPM] suffered from some line-up colinearity masking while in Dallas (though that's just opinion/speculation).
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire