Best 1 Year Peak Amongst These Guys

[MyUniBroDavis]

I assume his defense looks better this time around but it’s kinda funny how much this revolves around Jokic’s playoffs, if he seems crazy bad defensively again you could really put him dead last, if he seems okay at all he can shoot up to #1

[MyUniBroDavis]

I see a lot of votes for Giannis so I'm curious what impact metrics say about Giannis vs Dirk in 2011 for example. Without Giannis, the Bucks still seem like a pretty good team. Without Dirk, the Mavs were terrible.

Giannis’s impact metrics are a bit weird

2020 Giannis as far as I know has one of the best shotcharts rapm relative to other players ever, it’s higher than Jokic’s seasons in the past few years for example.

2021 Giannis drops off, but it’s entirely on defense so the question is whether the playoff metrics that do look great in that regard show better play or just noise

[OhayoKD]

We have numbers with Lopez and without Giannis though and they still look good, that's my point. I didn't imply that Lopez is a better defender than Giannis, but I hate when people act like Lopez existed only because of Giannis - we have a significant sample with no Giannis and with Lopez for last 5 years, Lopez proved himself more than enough.

You said they don't collapse. How is a 4-5 point drop not a collapse?(and that assumes giannis has zero influence defensively right now)

We have more precise ways to capture the difference than what you showed. You can check it out on pbp.com, I did the deep dive with Lopez and Giannis on/off some time ago.

Could you link me?

Was it significantly different from what Ben is doing?

[70sFan]

You said they don't collapse. How is a 4-5 point drop not a collapse?(and that assumes giannis has zero influence defensively right now)

We have more precise ways to capture the difference than what you showed. You can check it out on pbp.com, I did the deep dive with Lopez and Giannis on/off some time ago.

Could you link me?

Was it significantly different from what Ben is doing?

http://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba

Ben uses this site quite often actually.

[OhayoKD]

We have more precise ways to capture the difference than what you showed. You can check it out on pbp.com, I did the deep dive with Lopez and Giannis on/off some time ago.

Could you link me?

Was it significantly different from what Ben is doing?

http://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba

Ben uses this site quite often actually.

Was asking for your deep-dive but the search function does the job I guess

2018 Bucks (no Lopez, Giannis for 75 games): +1.5 rDRtg
2019 Bucks (Lopez and Giannis): -5.2 rDRtg
2020 Bucks (Lopez and Giannis): -7.7 rDRtg
2021 Bucks (both players missing significant amount of time): -0.9 rDRtg
2022 Bucks: (Lopez for 13 games, Giannis for 67 games): -0.2 rDRtg
2023 Bucks (Lopez for 49 games, Giannis for 39 games): -3.0 rDRtg

It looks like Bucks defense is strongly correlated with Lopez play time.

Okay, but being "more precise" with Ben's breakdown of 19-20, Bucks drop off by 10 points without Giannis and there's a 7 point difference between how much brook drops off and how much Giannis does. Then from 21-23 the Bucks defense collapses(Context: Giannis coasting). 19-20 they are -6.2. From 21-23 they are -1.3. Collapse.

If we go to the post-season where Giannis turns it up for 21 and 22, here is how the Bucks D performs against every opponent. Injury context for Brooklyn(harden/kyrie injury) and Hawks series(giannis injury, o-rating spikes) so I'll toss it(was -11 and -5 respectively FWIW):

vs Miami: -14
vs Suns: -3
vs Bulls: -17
vs Celtics: -5

Again, massive gap.

Extending our sample with 2019 and 2020(bubble nukes their defense but whatever):
vs Pistons-11
vs Celtics-11
vs Raptors-6
(-9 average for 2019 per Ben)
vs Magic-4
vs Miami+3(Bubble-shooting, scheme, health, Bam neutralizes Giannis's d?)

Regardless that's a massive improvement over the Bucks regular defense from 2021-2023. With that in mind:

2022/23

Giannis on, Lopez on: 108.9 DRtg (725 minutes)
Giannis on, Lopez off: 111.9 DRtg (576 minutes)
Giannis off, Lopez on: 110.1 DRtg (765 minutes)
Giannis off, Lopez off: 119.3 DRtg (353 minutes)

Milwaukee are better defensively with Lopez on and Giannis off than vice versa. If you think the sample is too small:

Sure, but that is 2023 Giannis on a
2019-23:

Giannis on, Lopez on: 106.0 DRtg (4796 minutes)
Giannis on, Lopez off: 108.2 DRtg (4998 minutes)
Giannis off, Lopez on: 110.3 DRtg (3033 minutes)
Giannis off, Lopez off: 112.0 DRtg (4485 minutes)

Let's say Lopez is actually the more valuable defender on the 2023 Bucks. The problem remains that the 2023 Bucks, in the regular season, are not anywhere near as good as the 19-20 Bucks were, or the Bucks generally for the playoffs. And from what we have in 19/20, when the Bucks are historically great, they fall off massively without Giannis on D. 19-2023 includes 3 regular seasons where Giannis coasts and the Bucks defense has consequently fallen off a cliff relative to where it was when Giannis was going at tilt and pushing for/winning DPOY's.

However precise you make things, when we add this piece of context, we still see signs of collapse corroborated by everything else mentioned.

[No-more-rings]

I’d rank them like this I think.

Jokic
Wade
Giannis
Dr J
Dirk
Durant
Moses
Barkley

I feel like Jokic has sort of seperated himself from this pack this year, I understand that Giannis is a great defender and all but he still has postseason offensive issues that I don’t think he ever cleared doubt about.

Dr J is hard to judge, but i think where he’s at is fair. I may even be tempted to put him below Dirk, but I’ll leave it like that for now.

[70sFan]

Could you link me?

Was it significantly different from what Ben is doing?

http://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba

Ben uses this site quite often actually.

Was asking for your deep-dive but the search function does the job I guess

2018 Bucks (no Lopez, Giannis for 75 games): +1.5 rDRtg
2019 Bucks (Lopez and Giannis): -5.2 rDRtg
2020 Bucks (Lopez and Giannis): -7.7 rDRtg
2021 Bucks (both players missing significant amount of time): -0.9 rDRtg
2022 Bucks: (Lopez for 13 games, Giannis for 67 games): -0.2 rDRtg
2023 Bucks (Lopez for 49 games, Giannis for 39 games): -3.0 rDRtg

It looks like Bucks defense is strongly correlated with Lopez play time.

Okay, but being "more precise" with Ben's breakdown of 19-20, Bucks drop off by 10 points without Giannis and there's a 7 point difference between how much brook drops off and how much Giannis does. Then from 21-23 the Bucks defense collapses(Context: Giannis coasting). 19-20 they are -6.2. From 21-23 they are -1.3. Collapse.

If we go to the post-season where Giannis turns it up for 21 and 22, here is how the Bucks D performs against every opponent. Injury context for Brooklyn(harden/kyrie injury) and Hawks series(giannis injury, o-rating spikes) so I'll toss it(was -11 and -5 respectively FWIW):

vs Miami: -14
vs Suns: -3
vs Bulls: -17
vs Celtics: -5

Again, massive gap.

Extending our sample with 2019 and 2020(bubble nukes their defense but whatever):
vs Pistons-11
vs Celtics-11
vs Raptors-6
(-9 average for 2019 per Ben)
vs Magic-4
vs Miami+3(Bubble-shooting, scheme, health, Bam neutralizes Giannis's d?)

Regardless that's a massive improvement over the Bucks regular defense from 2021-2023. With that in mind:

2022/23

Giannis on, Lopez on: 108.9 DRtg (725 minutes)
Giannis on, Lopez off: 111.9 DRtg (576 minutes)
Giannis off, Lopez on: 110.1 DRtg (765 minutes)
Giannis off, Lopez off: 119.3 DRtg (353 minutes)

Milwaukee are better defensively with Lopez on and Giannis off than vice versa. If you think the sample is too small:

Sure, but that is 2023 Giannis on a
2019-23:

Giannis on, Lopez on: 106.0 DRtg (4796 minutes)
Giannis on, Lopez off: 108.2 DRtg (4998 minutes)
Giannis off, Lopez on: 110.3 DRtg (3033 minutes)
Giannis off, Lopez off: 112.0 DRtg (4485 minutes)

Let's say Lopez is actually the more valuable defender on the 2023 Bucks. The problem remains that the 2023 Bucks, in the regular season, are not anywhere near as good as the 19-20 Bucks were, or the Bucks generally for the playoffs. And from what we have in 19/20, when the Bucks are historically great, they fall off massively without Giannis on D. 19-2023 includes 3 regular seasons where Giannis coasts and the Bucks defense has consequently fallen off a cliff relative to where it was when Giannis was going at tilt and pushing for/winning DPOY's.

However precise you make things, when we add this piece of context, we still see signs of collapse corroborated by everything else mentioned.

I'm confused now, do you mean that Giannis had some massive outlier defensive seasons in 2019 and 2020 when he was on GOAT level, but now he's not even close to that?

I don't evaluate players that way, is there any reason to believe that he was much better defender back then than in 2021-23?

[OhayoKD]

http://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba

Ben uses this site quite often actually.

Was asking for your deep-dive but the search function does the job I guess

Okay, but being "more precise" with Ben's breakdown of 19-20, Bucks drop off by 10 points without Giannis and there's a 7 point difference between how much brook drops off and how much Giannis does. Then from 21-23 the Bucks defense collapses(Context: Giannis coasting). 19-20 they are -6.2. From 21-23 they are -1.3. Collapse.

If we go to the post-season where Giannis turns it up for 21 and 22, here is how the Bucks D performs against every opponent. Injury context for Brooklyn(harden/kyrie injury) and Hawks series(giannis injury, o-rating spikes) so I'll toss it(was -11 and -5 respectively FWIW):

vs Miami: -14
vs Suns: -3
vs Bulls: -17
vs Celtics: -5

Again, massive gap.

Extending our sample with 2019 and 2020(bubble nukes their defense but whatever):
vs Pistons-11
vs Celtics-11
vs Raptors-6
(-9 average for 2019 per Ben)
vs Magic-4
vs Miami+3(Bubble-shooting, scheme, health, Bam neutralizes Giannis's d?)

Regardless that's a massive improvement over the Bucks regular defense from 2021-2023. With that in mind:

2022/23

Giannis on, Lopez on: 108.9 DRtg (725 minutes)
Giannis on, Lopez off: 111.9 DRtg (576 minutes)
Giannis off, Lopez on: 110.1 DRtg (765 minutes)
Giannis off, Lopez off: 119.3 DRtg (353 minutes)

Milwaukee are better defensively with Lopez on and Giannis off than vice versa. If you think the sample is too small:

Sure, but that is 2023 Giannis on a
2019-23:

Giannis on, Lopez on: 106.0 DRtg (4796 minutes)
Giannis on, Lopez off: 108.2 DRtg (4998 minutes)
Giannis off, Lopez on: 110.3 DRtg (3033 minutes)
Giannis off, Lopez off: 112.0 DRtg (4485 minutes)

Let's say Lopez is actually the more valuable defender on the 2023 Bucks. The problem remains that the 2023 Bucks, in the regular season, are not anywhere near as good as the 19-20 Bucks were, or the Bucks generally for the playoffs. And from what we have in 19/20, when the Bucks are historically great, they fall off massively without Giannis on D. 19-2023 includes 3 regular seasons where Giannis coasts and the Bucks defense has consequently fallen off a cliff relative to where it was when Giannis was going at tilt and pushing for/winning DPOY's.

However precise you make things, when we add this piece of context, we still see signs of collapse corroborated by everything else mentioned.

I'm confused now, do you mean that Giannis had some massive outlier defensive seasons in 2019 and 2020 when he was on GOAT level, but now he's not even close to that?

I don't evaluate players that way, is there any reason to believe that he was much better defender back then than in 2021-23?

I'm saying he le-coasted in the regular season post 2020 and that's why they suddenly turn into the atg defense form 19-20 when he goes at full tilt in the postseason

[70sFan]

Was asking for your deep-dive but the search function does the job I guess

Okay, but being "more precise" with Ben's breakdown of 19-20, Bucks drop off by 10 points without Giannis and there's a 7 point difference between how much brook drops off and how much Giannis does. Then from 21-23 the Bucks defense collapses(Context: Giannis coasting). 19-20 they are -6.2. From 21-23 they are -1.3. Collapse.

If we go to the post-season where Giannis turns it up for 21 and 22, here is how the Bucks D performs against every opponent. Injury context for Brooklyn(harden/kyrie injury) and Hawks series(giannis injury, o-rating spikes) so I'll toss it(was -11 and -5 respectively FWIW):

vs Miami: -14
vs Suns: -3
vs Bulls: -17
vs Celtics: -5

Again, massive gap.

Extending our sample with 2019 and 2020(bubble nukes their defense but whatever):
vs Pistons-11
vs Celtics-11
vs Raptors-6
(-9 average for 2019 per Ben)
vs Magic-4
vs Miami+3(Bubble-shooting, scheme, health, Bam neutralizes Giannis's d?)

Regardless that's a massive improvement over the Bucks regular defense from 2021-2023. With that in mind:


Let's say Lopez is actually the more valuable defender on the 2023 Bucks. The problem remains that the 2023 Bucks, in the regular season, are not anywhere near as good as the 19-20 Bucks were, or the Bucks generally for the playoffs. And from what we have in 19/20, when the Bucks are historically great, they fall off massively without Giannis on D. 19-2023 includes 3 regular seasons where Giannis coasts and the Bucks defense has consequently fallen off a cliff relative to where it was when Giannis was going at tilt and pushing for/winning DPOY's.

However precise you make things, when we add this piece of context, we still see signs of collapse corroborated by everything else mentioned.

I'm confused now, do you mean that Giannis had some massive outlier defensive seasons in 2019 and 2020 when he was on GOAT level, but now he's not even close to that?

I don't evaluate players that way, is there any reason to believe that he was much better defender back then than in 2021-23?

I'm saying he le-coasted in the regular season post 2020 and that's why they suddenly turn into the atg defense form 19-20 when he goes at full tilt in the postseason

Eh... maybe he did, or maybe it's more complicated than that.