Natural talent

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Re: Natural talent 

Post#61 » by SNPA » Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:48 pm

AEnigma wrote:
SNPA wrote:
AEnigma wrote:If your eyetest has failed to identify “instinctual” passing elsewhere, that is entirely your own issue.

Like I said: anything is possible when you start with an assumed conclusion.

Eye test. The artist formerly known as actually watching the game. It’s a novel approach. I’m openly and unabashedly for it.

You are for it because you can perceive whatever you want out of it. If you believe something to be the case, you can confirm it by simply refusing to see anything to the contrary. All very convenient.

Your choice to substitute natural ability for instinctual is notable, as is the lack of evidence presented. Sure, anyone can find a clip of a player throwing a cool quick pass. Even multiple clips of the same player, as one can find a clip of a terrible shooter hitting a few threes. But, try finding multiple players (out of the tens of thousands that have played in the NBA) throwing those type of passes at Bird’s level…I won’t wait. You can’t. It hasn’t happened. Ask yourself why?

It’s the chip in the brain. You can argue the chips are all equal, or don’t matter, or can be upgraded by any player. You just have yet to present a coherent argument in favor of it.

You have no evidence and no coherent argument. Which is my entire point. You believe it, therefore your eyetest confirms it and ignores all else. End of story. You see it as unfalsifiable, so what is left to be said. Reality stops mattering. Bird towers above all because he must. So what is the point in you consuming the sport past that, right? There cannot be another Bird, so why bother ever looking for one.

Good point. Why bother watching the game since one can perceive whatever one wants out of it. This thinking should go further though, why bother doing any action that has a subjective element to it. It’s all pointlessly unfalsifiable.

The game of basketball is played by humans. It is not reducible, given the current state of human or AI learning, to an unfalsifiable statement on an excel spreadsheet. Gamblers would love that, but for some reason aren’t able to pay anyone enough to create it.

If the beauty of Bird’s game escapes you maybe this isn’t the sport for you.
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Re: Natural talent 

Post#62 » by AEnigma » Fri Mar 10, 2023 8:08 pm

SNPA wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
SNPA wrote:Eye test. The artist formerly known as actually watching the game. It’s a novel approach. I’m openly and unabashedly for it.

You are for it because you can perceive whatever you want out of it. If you believe something to be the case, you can confirm it by simply refusing to see anything to the contrary. All very convenient.

Your choice to substitute natural ability for instinctual is notable, as is the lack of evidence presented. Sure, anyone can find a clip of a player throwing a cool quick pass. Even multiple clips of the same player, as one can find a clip of a terrible shooter hitting a few threes. But, try finding multiple players (out of the tens of thousands that have played in the NBA) throwing those type of passes at Bird’s level…I won’t wait. You can’t. It hasn’t happened. Ask yourself why?

It’s the chip in the brain. You can argue the chips are all equal, or don’t matter, or can be upgraded by any player. You just have yet to present a coherent argument in favor of it.

You have no evidence and no coherent argument. Which is my entire point. You believe it, therefore your eyetest confirms it and ignores all else. End of story. You see it as unfalsifiable, so what is left to be said. Reality stops mattering. Bird towers above all because he must. So what is the point in you consuming the sport past that, right? There cannot be another Bird, so why bother ever looking for one.

Good point. Why bother watching the game since one can perceive whatever one wants out of it. This thinking should go further though, why bother doing any action that has a subjective element to it. It’s all pointlessly unfalsifiable.

The game of basketball is played by humans. It is not reducible, given the current state of human or AI learning, to an unfalsifiable statement on an excel spreadsheet. Gamblers would love that, but for some reason aren’t able to pay anyone enough to create it.

If the beauty of Bird’s game escapes you maybe this isn’t the sport for you.

It has not escape me, but most of what has come after Bird seems to have escaped you. You are right, you do not need to bother watching the game. All those Bird highlights are still there. Even a good number of the games are too. It is when you start acting as if he stands alone that we run in problems, because that requires a sincere antipathy for the last thirty years of the sport.
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Re: Natural talent 

Post#63 » by Warriors Analyst » Fri Mar 10, 2023 8:19 pm

I think vision and understanding of the game does have a prenatural aspect to it. I think there's some cases where players can develop decent feel over many years and reps -- take Harrison Barnes for example -- but the HOF-level feel that allows guys to become all-timers? That can't get developed.

I do think there's also a funny thing going on in scouting where talent is conflated with physical gifts. Take James Wiseman, for example. He has very poor feel for the game. What he does have are physical gifts and an extensive package of drill work based skills.
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Re: Natural talent 

Post#64 » by Heej » Fri Mar 10, 2023 10:59 pm

capfan33 wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Yeah, this is just a tortured variant of "god of the gaps." You can't explain something so it must be...innate talent? No, if you can't explain something, you can't explain something.

Well, one. I'm not sure how you're figuring out how well-received you would be in these time machine scenarios, but assuming you're right, I imagine it might have to do with people not lo oking at a copycar the same way as the person who did it originally, which is why you need to learn how to tranpose, combine, and create your own context. Which, again, is a skill.


Kind of a variant, but I'm not asserting beyond a shadow of a doubt the way that religious people do lol, I'm open to changing the definition or what it's called or allowing that there may be other factors involved, what I'm saying is that talent (or something along those lines) is a part of this otherwise unexplainable gap.

Also, in the time-machine scenario, I'm saying I would play for Hendrix in public. No one would know who Hendrix is, I just copy what he does and he basically does everything in his power to turn me into him. Not a perfect hypothetical but you get what I'm saying. I would be a nobody, maybe an intriguing clown show but no one would take me seriously, because I can't play the guitar like Jimi Hendrix, no matter what he or I do. And this ofc assumes that Jimi does all the work for me that he did in terms of reconceptualizing the guitar as an instrument, which I have beyond 0 shot of doing independently.

OhayoKD wrote:And your label is silly, because "innate talent" actually implies something specific while all you're really doing is "I don't know what's going on, let me label it". There is no gene for "capture the hearts and minds of the 80's". Maybe if you do "all the learning in the world" and are still somehow unable to do whatever thing you currently can't do, we should re-assess, but right now this doesn't really boil down to more than "wow Jimmy hendrix was popular for a long time, not everyone is popular for a long time, INNATE TALENT!"


Are there not tens of thousands of amateur musicians throughout history who have done everything in their power to master an instrument, play and record music, that no one gives a rat's ass about because the music, while technically competent, doesn't actually speak to people? Hell, I have an example in my own family of this, practiced assiduously and was very technically competent, he just didn't have that creative spark that separates great musicians from competent ones.

But to bring this back to basketball specifically because we are veering very off-topic, do you not think Jokic has an innate talent for passing that even other good NBA players lack? There are a lot of great passing bigs that have come out of Europe, through the skills academies that teach these skills much better than we do, there's only one Jokic. And to be clear in all this, I'm not saying Jokic is the only big who will ever have this innate talent, but that he clearly has more of it, even, compared to other extremely good NBA players who are doing everything in their power to emulate it. His passing ability relative to his very talented peers is not something that can be explained away by just "practice" or circumstance, he clearly has a gift for it.

Another analogous example, Kareem was a very good passer who studiously learned how to pass in college and the pros, but he was no Walton. And even if Kareem had grown up exactly the way Walton did playing basketball from an earlier age in a similar environment, there's little to indicate he ever would have reached Walton's level as a passer, he just didn't have that type of vision, creativity, and spatial processing. By the same token, Walton never could have replicated Kareem's shooting touch from 3-10 feet no matter how many hook shots he threw up. Like Kareem's passing, I'm sure he could've improved, but at a certain point, you are going to hit a ceiling. (70sFan keep me honest on this)

Finally, people do at times overrate talent when it comes to any human endeavor, but it is 100% a real factor in most fields. The big thing that most people miss is that the individuals who reach the top of the pyramid in almost anything have incredible natural talent, and work ridiculously hard, it's not one or the other, you need both (and some luck) to be able to win out in any highly competitive field.

Isn't it a big thing that people always bring up how Jokic played water polo growing up? Like I know for myself I played baseball as my second sport growing up and I'm fairly confident that has a lot to do with my passing accuracy and hands. Bird played baseball too and so much of that sport is based on subconsciously predicting where the ball is gonna go or where the next play is, as well as needing pretty perfect accuracy (esp as a pitcher) that it just naturally translates over.

Can we confidently say that it's not also a function of the fact that Jokic was out there busting his ass in water polo as well as basketball. I really think a lot of what we conflate as natural talent is just the ability to maintain consistent focus and effort when practicing a skill.

So much of it is mentality imo. The guys who are able to believe in themselves and stay focused and practice are the ones who end up truly great. And I feel like anyone that you ask about how they became so great is gonna say it's because they simply wanted it more than everyone around them.

I guess realistically this is some Pareto principle s***. The hard work explains 80% of the success but maybe the remaining 20% is accounted for by everything else, with some portion of that being "talent". And I'm sure a gigantic portion of that is attributable to luck too

And it's funny because people are better at different things too. Like what made Steph one of the all time greats are different than what made Magic one of the ATGs. How are you gonna say one of their intrinsic "natural talents" mattered more than the others
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Re: Natural talent 

Post#65 » by rk2023 » Sat Mar 11, 2023 1:59 am

This became quite the thread :lol: :lol:

Few thoughts I have:

- Savant syndrome definitely is present within some, but only a limited few. It certainly serves as a catalyst in some areas / disciplines, but needs to be tapped into and positively reinforced in order to keep getting "better (however you want to define it) at a given activity, profession, hobby, so on. To quote the cliche: "hard work beats talent when talent fails to work hard"

- Maybe? akin to how one's brain continues to develop until a certain age (such as 25), crystalized intelligence is a real thing that manifests itself where one can adapt and maintain excellence despite not being as "sharp" as time passes.

- When looking at the discipline of music compared to basketball or sport in general, I definitely understand the urge and desire we as humans and thinkers have to take out components, themes, aspects of one and apply them to another context (like the OP somewhat alludes to). With this in mind, I ultimately see the two as more of an "apples to oranges" comparison. I don't think it is the most sound argument to call one discipline easier or harder than the other - but there are certain nuances towards developing a greater discipline-specific IQ. As it pertains to music, this comes with being one with your instrument (done through better hand-eye coordination, ability to make certain keys and notes second nature, be a quicker improviser, so on). Circling back to the original premise in this paragraph, I think some of that second nature pattern-mapping is relevant to sports.. but such acumen develops at a much later stage and requires the detail of learning about moving pieces and the optimal tendencies/habits of those around you. The very first post referenced a 5 year old child being musically gifted. I frankly think it is impossible for someone that young to be as adept (relative to activity) in the world of sport. I do think it is true that Magic, Bird, James, Bryant, Jordan demonstrated such ability with their offensive games - but it took a while to manifest for each of them. Their respective offensive production(s) and growth, I find to be a signal of this (could elaborate further if prompted).
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
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Re: Natural talent 

Post#66 » by OhayoKD » Sat Mar 11, 2023 3:40 am

capfan33 wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
Yeah, this is just a tortured variant of "god of the gaps." You can't explain something so it must be...innate talent? No, if you can't explain something, you can't explain something.

Well, one. I'm not sure how you're figuring out how well-received you would be in these time machine scenarios, but assuming you're right, I imagine it might have to do with people not lo oking at a copycar the same way as the person who did it originally, which is why you need to learn how to tranpose, combine, and create your own context. Which, again, is a skill.


Kind of a variant, but I'm not asserting beyond a shadow of a doubt the way that religious people do lol, I'm open to changing the definition or what it's called or allowing that there may be other factors involved, what I'm saying is that talent (or something along those lines) is a part of this otherwise unexplainable gap.

"God of the Gaps" doesn't justify any level of assertion, let alone "beyond a shadow of a doubt". That there is an "unexplainable gap" right now is just you ignoring plausible explanations without explaining why they aren't satisfactory.

The problem here is your conclusion does not naturally follow from your reasoning/evidence.
Are there not tens of thousands of amateur musicians throughout history who have done everything in their power to master an instrument, play and record music, that no one gives a rat's ass about because the music, while technically competent, doesn't actually speak to people? Hell, I have an example in my own family of this, practiced assiduously and was very technically competent, he just didn't have that creative spark that separates great musicians from competent ones.

Okay, but why do we need "innate talent" to explain any of this? And why are you pretending "mastering an instrument" and "playing and recording music" is all there is to musical development? All you have actually argued is that some people are more successful than others. Why can't this be put to external context?
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=104637520#p104637520
You might note that the linked post actually presents an argument with reasoning and evidence that support what is being argued. As opposed to ducking with "well i don't know how this happened, so innate talent must be why".

Honestly, the "innate talent" you imply here is a pretty big tell:
And this ofc assumes that Jimi does all the work for me that he did in terms of reconceptualizing the guitar as an instrument, which I have beyond 0 shot of doing independently.

Suprise surprise, this is completely learnable:
Oh, but it is. "Copying" is one of the best ways to expand one's bag. Analysis and replication expands an artist's arsenal. Then, you transpose. "You" come in with the context you create around what you've stolen, and, hopefully, you're stealing multiple things from multiple people before constructing a context where they become greater than the sum of their individual parts.

"Reconceptualize" is a variant of "Recontextualize", a skill that is developed via practice and repetition. Something new is created when you "transpose" and "combine". You want to reconceptualize an instrument? Track what is typically being done with an instrument in various situations, and then take those situations and use the instrument differently.

You may not have the fingers to play exactly like Jimmy, but you, as countless others have, can get close, and then once you've gotten close you can transpose the mechanics to create your own thing. And hey...maybe that "own thing" isn't Jimmy-level, but pair it with another dozen things(lyrics derived from 19th century polyglot idiom "libretto of the liberian republic"? scat(if you really wanna boost, mix same-stress with different-stress sounds)? a plot-line allegorizing the illiad?) in a cohesive way and, yeah, you don't need "innate talent" to make something better. Even "pandering" is a skill. Playing into the hands of an audience with your own persona does not even require extremely high "developed" storytelling. Just ask Swift:
But I think the way we like pop musicians is in some ways a more exaggerated or extreme version of the way we like all musicians, or almost all of them.

All pop stars enlist us in their stories.

I mean, it’s only sensible to do so, because they need our interest to earn money off us.

But it plays on basic human curiosity. Very few people completely lack all curiosity about the musicians that make the music they love. (Just as very few great musicians are so personally obscure or undocumented that we know absolutely nothing about them, other than their music.)

In a way, being involved with the musicians’ stories is a big part of how their music comes to seem more meaningful to us.

https://www.quora.com/What-does-Alex-Johnston-think-of-Taylor-Swift

Taylor Swift does not come close to having the largest vocal range. Even with practice, she is not a wordsmith on par with a run-of-the-mill novelist. She can't belt like Beyonce, let alone the best of the best opera singers, and far as the skills involved in building a persona go, she is far from a run-of-the-committed actor in sinking into a role. What she does have is the willingness to combine, and we have covered, knowing how to combine things is not "innate", it is developed. Her actually developing that was probably helped by getting opportunities early(and snowballing), but that is external, not "innate"

It is "hard", but it being doable is not dependent on the basis of "innate" biology(barring severe disabilities, and even then, people have achieved high regard with crazy handi-caps).

Honestly, if your family friend is worried about "creative spark", they should just learn creative writing(and i mean properly, not scribbling thoughts down when the right emotions hit). This "innate" lack of "creative spark" may start to mysteriously disappear

Actually how about we give a prompt to be worked on as they progress:
[u]A world of sentinent(instument of choice)!!!! Where class is determined by how they're played!!![/u]

Like honestly, this isn't even a bit. Anyone who seriously plays with this prompt should see their "creative spark" and "reconceptualize" skills go up significantly. All "innate" would do here is make the path faster, but it's not like someone with "average" affinity would need a decade of focus to figure this out. If you spend a year researching instruments, and honing your response to the prompt(and doing this with different instruments), the magical "you're born with it or not" **** people assume they "weren't born with" should inexplciably appear.

But to bring this back to basketball specifically
[/quote]
Fine, but first, let's make something clear. Unlike the analogy that was scrutinized in the post I linked above, this doesn't actually hold if you're trying to map this onto art, because art is a sandbox where there is a dramatically bigger range of "final versions" to something that scores at the top, whether we take my commonly applied standard or yours. Using the traditional definition of good in basketball, the version of success is basically, "help team put ball in hoop more than other team". Nothing barring very obscure criterion implies you must only do Jimmy Hendrix ****. Because of the "put ball in hoop", we already have a hard-filter for height taking out most people.

That said, again, you just claim "things cannot be explained" without poking holes in the explanations. Why can't we put Jokic's vision/anticipation to his experiences growing up?

You just keep repeating the same claims without every actually explaining why "innate talent" is the missing link. Mind you, no one here has even questioned it as a factor, but you want it to be something that makes **** impossible or possible as opposed to something that makes **** easier, and there's just nothing to support that when we're talking about sandboxes instead of hoops.
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Re: Natural talent 

Post#67 » by SNPA » Sat Mar 11, 2023 4:48 am

Did the 5 year old learn to play piano that great?

Or, was the 5 year old great at piano and got to play?

…….

Learning can mimic natural ability.

Natural ability can continue to learn.

These are not fully mutually exclusive. But, natural ability is a huge advantage. It’s like starting the race way out ahead, including sometimes starting beyond where most people can get to.

……

How many 5 yr old piano recitals sound like that kid? Did he put in so many more hours that it’s his work ethic that created the gap from the average 5 yr old recital? Of course not. That kid was in diapers crapping himself and sucking on a pacifier 20 something months ago. There simply isn’t enough time for effort to create a gap that large. This, IMO, is evidence of natural ability. Some people are just great at some things. Call it genetic luck, call it whatever. It’s rather apparent. Does this translate to basketball…why wouldn’t it? This is not a god of the gaps theory, it’s a recognition that people are different and have different inherent skills and there are those so good they represent a savant outlier.
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Re: Natural talent 

Post#68 » by HeartBreakKid » Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:17 am

SNPA wrote:Did the 5 year old learn to play piano that great?

Or, was the 5 year old great at piano and got to play?

…….

Learning can mimic natural ability.

Natural ability can continue to learn.

These are not fully mutually exclusive. But, natural ability is a huge advantage. It’s like starting the race way out ahead, including sometimes starting beyond where most people can get to.

……

How many 5 yr old piano recitals sound like that kid? Did he put in so many more hours that it’s his work ethic that created the gap from the average 5 yr old recital? Of course not. That kid was in diapers crapping himself and sucking on a pacifier 20 something months ago. There simply isn’t enough time for effort to create a gap that large. This, IMO, is evidence of natural ability. Some people are just great at some things. Call it genetic luck, call it whatever. It’s rather apparent. Does this translate to basketball…why wouldn’t it? This is not a god of the gaps theory, it’s a recognition that people are different and have different inherent skills and there are those so good they represent a savant outlier.


Are there kids who do incredible things like this kid and grow up and not being really all that great at it in the end? Yeah...of course.

I mean unless you can predict the future I am not sure how you know that kid is going to be an all time great composer. You're saying this translates to basketball...well, why aren't you just using a basketball example then?

There are a countless videos of small children who have absolutely amazing basketball skills posted up on YouTube. They grew up and guess where most of them are?

I don't get why we're being abstract with music. Look at YouTube videos of kids playing basketball or mastering basketball skills (or we can even use people who are older like preteen or even teen). They're filled with "wow, how good is this guy going to be" - and ten years later they weren't very good at all.


For fun I typed in "basketball child savant 2010" in google since now enough time has passed we can see if these guys were actually any good.

https://www.wired.com/2010/11/indian-basketball-prodigy/






Safe to say none of these guys are particularly relevant in the basketball field.
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Re: Natural talent 

Post#69 » by SNPA » Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:25 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
SNPA wrote:Did the 5 year old learn to play piano that great?

Or, was the 5 year old great at piano and got to play?

…….

Learning can mimic natural ability.

Natural ability can continue to learn.

These are not fully mutually exclusive. But, natural ability is a huge advantage. It’s like starting the race way out ahead, including sometimes starting beyond where most people can get to.

……

How many 5 yr old piano recitals sound like that kid? Did he put in so many more hours that it’s his work ethic that created the gap from the average 5 yr old recital? Of course not. That kid was in diapers crapping himself and sucking on a pacifier 20 something months ago. There simply isn’t enough time for effort to create a gap that large. This, IMO, is evidence of natural ability. Some people are just great at some things. Call it genetic luck, call it whatever. It’s rather apparent. Does this translate to basketball…why wouldn’t it? This is not a god of the gaps theory, it’s a recognition that people are different and have different inherent skills and there are those so good they represent a savant outlier.


Are there kids who do incredible things like this kid and grow up and not being really all that great at it in the end? Yeah...of course.

I mean unless you can predict the future I am not sure how you know that kid is going to be an all time great composer. You're saying this translates to basketball...well, why aren't you just using a basketball example then?

There are a countless videos of small children who have absolutely amazing basketball skills posted up on YouTube. They grew up and guess where most of them are?

There’s all the same life reasons everyone else faces that can explain why highly talented people don’t reach the upper levels of their craft/skill. A natural ability doesn’t mean you can’t become an addict, teenage parent, etc.

If the second part is a continuation of the but physical constraints limit natural ability in some contexts argument, then yes. Of course. If Hendrix was born with one hand….It’s not an argument against natural ability. It’s an argument about specific contextual requirements for a natural ability to shine.
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Re: Natural talent 

Post#70 » by McBubbles » Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:00 pm

SNPA wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
SNPA wrote:Did the 5 year old learn to play piano that great?

Or, was the 5 year old great at piano and got to play?

…….

Learning can mimic natural ability.

Natural ability can continue to learn.

These are not fully mutually exclusive. But, natural ability is a huge advantage. It’s like starting the race way out ahead, including sometimes starting beyond where most people can get to.

……

How many 5 yr old piano recitals sound like that kid? Did he put in so many more hours that it’s his work ethic that created the gap from the average 5 yr old recital? Of course not. That kid was in diapers crapping himself and sucking on a pacifier 20 something months ago. There simply isn’t enough time for effort to create a gap that large. This, IMO, is evidence of natural ability. Some people are just great at some things. Call it genetic luck, call it whatever. It’s rather apparent. Does this translate to basketball…why wouldn’t it? This is not a god of the gaps theory, it’s a recognition that people are different and have different inherent skills and there are those so good they represent a savant outlier.


Are there kids who do incredible things like this kid and grow up and not being really all that great at it in the end? Yeah...of course.

I mean unless you can predict the future I am not sure how you know that kid is going to be an all time great composer. You're saying this translates to basketball...well, why aren't you just using a basketball example then?

There are a countless videos of small children who have absolutely amazing basketball skills posted up on YouTube. They grew up and guess where most of them are?


There’s all the same life reasons everyone else faces that can explain why highly talented people don’t reach the upper levels of their craft/skill. A natural ability doesn’t mean you can’t become an addict, teenage parent, etc.

If the second part is a continuation of the but physical constraints limit natural ability in some contexts argument, then yes. Of course. If Hendrix was born with one hand….It’s not an argument against natural ability. It’s an argument about specific contextual requirements for a natural ability to shine.


Some children aren't highly talented, they're just quickly talented. They reach the end of their growth curve for an ability at a much younger age than other people reach theirs, which gives the illusion of high potential when in reality they reached their potential, just at 12-18.

They're some chess players with an incredibly high ELO at a young age, that didn't improve much as they got older. It's not like "life got in the way" either, they played just as much if not more chess as they grew up and still didn't improve much. Likewise, the fastest high schoolers ever in sprinting events typically don't end up being the fastest people ever, they just peaked at an earlier age.
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Re: Natural talent 

Post#71 » by penbeast0 » Mon Mar 20, 2023 12:09 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:You can't really tell if someone is a savant at 5 years old. It's entirely possible if not likely that even if that person keeps training their entire life they won't stand out much from others who started at a later age.

Progression isn't that linear. "Wow, they're THAT good at basketball at 7, imagine when he is 21!". We see this with kids in sports.


Almost every basketball player has some type of natural talent that sticks out to varying degrees. The players you're talking about have good vision and spatial awareness (Bird, Jokic, Russell) - that isn't really instinctively a more natural talent than Curry being able to shoot 3s in his sleep. It does make the game look effortless to them though.


You never heard the joke about the piano teacher who heard a 5 year old play well and said to the mom, "If only you'd brought him to me sooner?"
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