Chris Webber in today's game

[tsherkin]

I think you grossly overestimate Webber's ability to score efficiently. Even in his best year, 2001, scoring at an efficiency better than his career average, he was still a hair under the average scoring efficiency for the league in an era where bigs were more efficient scorers than smaller players. Playoffs don't help him as he dropped 91 points of ts% in the playoffs that year to .427 ts% which is bad in any era after the 1950s. Efficiency isn't everything and Webber was a very good passer, but below average efficiency volume scoring is only of limited value compared to guys who score more efficiently and at similar or greater volume.

Now you may think Webber suddenly gains a willingness to listen to his coaches and consistently take good shots but I'm not sure what evidence you are going on to give you that impression.

I think, and he can correct me if I'm wrong, that the contention is that since Webber liked to shoot, he would be drawn to shooting threes in an era when that has become the norm. That is no guarantee, of course. And naturally, since he didn't like to do the stuff that generates high-efficiency shots for most of his career, we'd not likely be looking at someone who was extremely efficient by today's standards. We're probably talking more like league average or +1% rTS. League average is 58.1% right now. Webber was a 55%+ TS guy his first couple of seasons, so if you layer acceptable 3pt shooting on top of that, and maybe get crazy and hope he gets his improved FT shooting from later in his actual career earlier on due to shooting emphasis, then you could be looking at that 58-60% range. Not elite, but still better.

All hypothetical, but jump shooting is more of his friend in the contemporary league. Doesn't change his defense or his coachability, etc, of course.

[kendogg]

young webb was a high flier and would be one of the best rim runners today. also would feast on all the single coverage and spacing of today, and the ability to blatantly carry and take 5 steps. he'd still be a negative defensively if he gave the same effort. he's basically the same player as blake griffin, with the injury history and all. easily top 4 offensively but overall it's hard to say. i guess jokic is bad on defense too and he's still an MVP candidate.

At the wild mischaracterization in the first bolded statement.

As for the 2nd bolded, there is absolutely 0% chance he’s “top 4 offensively”; his defense would be worse in todays game, so overall, he’d have worse impact.

giannis and many others consistently get away with taking 4-5 steps.

Watch on YouTube

defense has exactly nothing to do with my statement. though his defense wouldn't be worse either. the worst part of his defensive game was defending bigger guys, of which there are vastly fewer of today. literally everything you said is wrong.

[kendogg]

...He stays top 4 offensive big for me. It's easier to score now than in any other era and its not close. league average TS% is up over 6% from webber's era. Webbers numbers, which are already very good, would be up across the board.....

I think you grossly overestimate Webber's ability to score efficiently. Even in his best year, 2001, scoring at an efficiency better than his career average, he was still a hair under the average scoring efficiency for the league in an era where bigs were more efficient scorers than smaller players. Playoffs don't help him as he dropped 91 points of ts% in the playoffs that year to .427 ts% which is bad in any era after the 1950s. Efficiency isn't everything and Webber was a very good passer, but below average efficiency volume scoring is only of limited value compared to guys who score more efficiently and at similar or greater volume.

Now you may think Webber suddenly gains a willingness to listen to his coaches and consistently take good shots but I'm not sure what evidence you are going on to give you that impression.

you dont seem to grasp how easy it is to score today vs past eras. while webber was never wide open, ever, during his prime, and rarely even in single coverage if he was anywhere near the paint. his best offensive teams were the kings teams jsut before his injury where he had a very young pre-prime peja that was really nothing more than a jumper shooter at that point, mike bibby a very young but a serviceable center but not enough explosion or finishing ability to have any significant amount of gravity to give webber wide open looks, divac a serviceable center but below average offensively especially at that point in his career when he was about to retire, and christie also below average. of course his efficiency wasnt great. that's like saying iverson is a bad scorer because he was so inefficient on the 76ers.

compare to today where the rules are so egregiously slanted in the offenses favor that stats are utterly incomparable to past eras, and that all kids in the league today grew up being encouraged to shoot 3's where in webber's era half the league couldn't shoot. it's completely different. webber would be far more efficient today.

what you need to analyze is not his stats, but his arsenal and array of moves, but that involves actually having watched the games and not just look at basketball-reference.

[homecourtloss]

young webb was a high flier and would be one of the best rim runners today. also would feast on all the single coverage and spacing of today, and the ability to blatantly carry and take 5 steps. he'd still be a negative defensively if he gave the same effort. he's basically the same player as blake griffin, with the injury history and all. easily top 4 offensively but overall it's hard to say. i guess jokic is bad on defense too and he's still an MVP candidate.

At the wild mischaracterization in the first bolded statement.

As for the 2nd bolded, there is absolutely 0% chance he’s “top 4 offensively”; his defense would be worse in todays game, so overall, he’d have worse impact.

giannis and many others consistently get away with taking 4-5 steps.

Watch on YouTube

defense has exactly nothing to do with my statement. though his defense wouldn't be worse either. the worst part of his defensive game was defending bigger guys, of which there are vastly fewer of today. literally everything you said is wrong.

So…One Video that shows Giannis traveling out of the thousands and thousands and thousands of possessions he’s had the ball shows that players today have the ability to “blatantly carry and take five steps?”

A player who didn’t even make his teams significantly better offensively other than in one year (2001) and then marginally better in two -three more years, who wasn’t an efficient scorer (slightly above average a few years, average a few more years, below average in other years), a decent but not amazing creator, solid but no stand out ORPM/ORAPM/ORAPTOR/OPIPM/OLEBRON numbers with no real dominant special abilities would all of a sudden become “easily top four offensively” today?

I really hope that you do think whatever I post is absolutely wrong because someone who hasn’t changed his opinions on anything after posting all of these years… Well I don’t want to agree with him.

[penbeast0]

you dont seem to grasp how easy it is to score today vs past eras. while webber was never wide open, ever, during his prime, and rarely even in single coverage if he was anywhere near the paint. his best offensive teams were the kings teams jsut before his injury where he had a very young pre-prime peja that was really nothing more than a jumper shooter at that point, mike bibby a very young but a serviceable center but not enough explosion or finishing ability to have any significant amount of gravity to give webber wide open looks, divac a serviceable center but below average offensively especially at that point in his career when he was about to retire, and christie also below average. of course his efficiency wasnt great. that's like saying iverson is a bad scorer because he was so inefficient on the 76ers.

compare to today where the rules are so egregiously slanted in the offenses favor that stats are utterly incomparable to past eras, and that all kids in the league today grew up being encouraged to shoot 3's where in webber's era half the league couldn't shoot. it's completely different. webber would be far more efficient today.

what you need to analyze is not his stats, but his arsenal and array of moves, but that involves actually having watched the games and not just look at basketball-reference.

[/quote]

I saw him most when he was in Washington of course, but his efficiency didn't improve much if at all in Sacramento. He was incredibly talented but it all came so easy to him that he didn't put in a lot of work to improve it seemed. He had a tendency to drift outside and not move much without the ball, only coming back to life when he got the ball around the 3 point line where he would make sometimes spectacular drives but also got himself stripped at times with his loose handles. On the other hand, they used to guard him very loosely waiting for the drive which may explain why his long twos were a reasonably efficient shot though he didn't really ever learn to shoot the 3 pointer well. He rarely went to the line for a big man of his scoring volume and defensively would give up post position, relying on his athleticism to avoid contact. He would rather make his own shot more difficult or look for the highlight block than initiate contact (one of the main ways great scorers then and now increase their efficiency). When I saw him in Sacramento, his game hadn't changed much but I did see him more in Washington. Add to that his public fights with his coaches over their asking him to play small ball center or stay out of the clubs the night before games and his immaturity and sense of entitlement got him in enough trouble that they traded him for an aged Mitch Richmond and a bad contract. So, yes, I saw Webber and no, I don't think being in today's environment will make him relatively more efficient than his peers (though his raw stats will be better due to the factors you say which also apply to the others modern bigs). He will continue to be around league average efficiency with obvious and tremendous potential for more that is never realized because what he already is is enough to make him a good player and he isn't motivated to be a great one.