How good of a ft shooter would Shaq need to be in order to be the goat for you?

[Cavsfansince84]

He wrote, " If Shaq could have made free throws, he’d be the greatest offensive player ever. Consider that at a 70 percent rate, his 2000 season would have been worth nearly 2 more points per game, and at 80 percent, nearly 3 additional points per game" - https://thinkingbasketball.net/2018/03/29/backpicks-goat-5-shaquille-oneal/

I mean, we can all agree that that's not how it works, right? He's not shooting 13 free throws per game if he could convert at 80%.

I think its closer to how it works than people realize though because teams would be fouling less but many of those shots he got fouled on were when he was at point blank range near the basket. The idea with Shaq a hack wasn't to just foul every time he touched the ball but rather when it seemed like a dunk was imminent. So his overall scoring efficiency still goes up even if teams aren't auto fouling him.

[MacGill]

Shaq is my GOAT center but if you remove the 'diva' mentality from him so he and Kobe don't squabble and he never gets traded, that's it. FT% doesn't need to adjust imo.

[OhayoKD]

During Shaq's extended prime (1995-2004), he averaged 7.9 FTM out of 14.9 FTAs (per 100 possessions). At 85%, those made FTs jump up to 12.7. An usage-free 4.8 PPG boost results in a BPM boost of around +4, putting prime Shaq's BPM into Jordan/LeBron territory. Shaq's OBPM would crush either Jordan or LeBron, even beat Jokic's MVP seasons.

Of course, increasing Shaq's FT% by a large amount would probably have changed the way defenses played Shaq such that simply plugging in the higher FT% isn't completely valid but it shows the analytic magnitude of bumping Shaq's FT% by such large margins.

Worth noting BPM probably inflates steal-accumulators. Though it's also not penalizing Shaq for all the times he's blown by or misses help rotations...

BPM does not inflate Steals. All stats have shown that Steals are an extremely valuable play and a valuable indicator of great players.

The question is how valuable. History shows that the highest-steal accumulators are guards and history also shows that guards consistently pale in comparison to even wings, let alone big-men in defensive value. That stays true if you use raw signals or lineup-adjusted ones. When D-BPM is consistently disagreeing with reality on the value of a certain archetype, it probably overrates the archetype. Furthermore...

Steals are the best player a defense can make. Not Blocks, not Rim Protections. Steals are. A Steal guarantees a defensive possession will allow zero points and it ensures the offense gains an advantage in transition.

Let's say that's true, steals are still often team plays. And players often only acquire a steal because a bigger player is makes it possible. Additionally, just because a play is valuable, when successful, does not mean failed attempts don't exact a cost. Missed shots show up in BPM. Missed steals do not. And again, if we work with reality as opposed to outdated dogma...

While there is considerable variation in his team's defensive performance, you do see a clear trend that for every Kawhi steal, his team performed better defensively, to be precise: -1.86 points on average.

Summary:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

    STL  Games  Tm_dDRtg
0  0.0     24      -1.2
1  1.0     36      -3.1
2  2.0     33      -8.7
3  3.0     16      -4.4
4  4.0      9     -11.3
5  5.0      5     -10.9
6  6.0      1      -1.3

Whereas for Jordan the trend is also there, but less prominent:

Jordan Summary:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

   STL  Games  Tm_dDRtg
0  0.0     25      -1.3
1  1.0     42      -3.3
2  2.0     53      -4.5
3  3.0     24      -4.4
4  4.0     23      -3.9
5  5.0      8      -7.2
6  6.0      4      -6.2

...the misses extract a cost.

But that's all theory, the proof is in the pudding. If we cross-reference your list:

If you want proof that Steals are valuable, look at the leaderboard for most steals all-time.

1. John Stockton* 3265
2. Jason Kidd* 2684
3. Chris Paul 2521
4. Michael Jordan* 2514
5. Gary Payton* 2445
6. Maurice Cheeks* 2310
7. Scottie Pippen* 2307
8. Clyde Drexler* 2207
9. LeBron James 2180
10. Hakeem Olajuwon* 2162

The 3 guys with the best track record of making defenses better are in the bottom 4(Lebron's only here at all because of longetvity). The number 1 on this list grades out as a marginal positive in APM. No -7 or > defenses are represented, and the top 5 players are all guards; players whose arrivals, departures, and declines consistently have the least correlation with team defense improving in every single iteration of the league including the current one.

Thanks for making my point I guess

[colts18]

Let's say that's true, steals are still often team plays. And players often only acquire a steal because a bigger player is makes it possible. Additionally, just because a play is valuable, when successful, does not mean failed attempts don't exact a cost. Missed shots show up in BPM. Missed steals do not. And again, if we work with reality as opposed to outdated dogma...

The 3 guys with the best track record of making defenses better are in the bottom 4(Lebron's only here at all because of longetvity). The number 1 on this list grades out as a marginal positive in APM. No -7 or > defenses are represented, and the top 5 players are all guards; players whose arrivals, departures, and declines consistently have the least correlation with team defense improving in every single iteration of the league including the current one.

Thanks for making my point I guess

I don't know why you keep repeating the false talking point that BPM inflates steals. It does not inflate Steals at all. Steals are the most valuable defensive play you can make, not a Block. Only a Steal can guarantee a possession with Zero points. All of the statistical work has proven that Steals are a great stat to point out which players are good.

There is a ton of evidence that Steals correlate well to winning and defense.

I already did the statistical work on a long term 15 year RAPM that showed that Steals was the Box Score stat that correlated with RAPM the most. In fact, it was 3x more valuable than Blocks.

http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8970&p=24774&hilit=stl#p24774


More analysis

We see here that there is a decently strong correlation between steals and DRAPM for the backcourt positions and small forward while centers and power forwards have virtually no statistical correlation between steals and DRAPM.

https://georgetownsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2014/04/09/steals-regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-and-ignoring-position/

Who does RPM like? High steals players:

• Players with high steal rates

Examples: Monta Ellis (+1.9), Ricky Rubio (+3.9), Josh Smith (+2.0)

Larceny isn't typically a desirable characteristic in a mate, but RPM seeks it out. Rubio is an RPM All-Star, while Ellis and Smith both rate better than their reputations would suggest. But this trend is bigger than just types. Of basic skill statistics (not including stats that rate combinations of skills such as true shooting percentage), only 2-point percentage correlates more closely with RPM than steal rate.

http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/10747126/nba-types-players-do-real-plus-minus-like


Want more proof of how valuable Steals are?

In fact, if you had to pick one statistic from the common box score to tell you as much as possible about whether a player helps or hurts his team, it isn’t how many points he scores. Nor how many rebounds he grabs. Nor how many assists he dishes out.

It’s how many steals he gets.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-hidden-value-of-the-nba-steal/

[euroleague]

I'd rank it at around 70-75%. With 75%, he just would've been impossible to defend.

The important thing isn't his 3 added points. It's the fact that he would be unstoppable. In a league with average TS% of around 54, he'd likely be nearing 70%, with 30+ ppg, while defended by entire teams.

Shaq in 2000 was the GOAT peak with 50% FT - a glaring weakness in his game. If that's taken out... his peak would just be head and shoulders above anyone else in the modern era. That would give him a strong case for GOAT, regardless of his lesser longevity.

[penbeast0]

Well, since my GOAT (Bill Russell) has a career FT% of 56%, not that much more. He'd have to take his defensive impact to a whole new level though.

[OhayoKD]

Let's say that's true, steals are still often team plays. And players often only acquire a steal because a bigger player is makes it possible. Additionally, just because a play is valuable, when successful, does not mean failed attempts don't exact a cost. Missed shots show up in BPM. Missed steals do not. And again, if we work with reality as opposed to outdated dogma...

The 3 guys with the best track record of making defenses better are in the bottom 4(Lebron's only here at all because of longetvity). The number 1 on this list grades out as a marginal positive in APM. No -7 or > defenses are represented, and the top 5 players are all guards; players whose arrivals, departures, and declines consistently have the least correlation with team defense improving in every single iteration of the league including the current one.

Thanks for making my point I guess

I don't know why you keep repeating the false talking point that BPM inflates steals.

I don't know why you keep repeating yourself:

Let's say that's true, steals are still often team plays. And players often only acquire a steal because a bigger player is makes it possible. Additionally, just because a play is valuable, when successful, does not mean failed attempts don't exact a cost. Missed shots show up in BPM. Missed steals do not. And again, if we work with reality as opposed to outdated dogma...

That was paragraph 2. Why notify me if you're just going to talk to yourself?

[trelos6]

75% puts him at 31,100 career points.

[KobesScarf]

70% maybe 75%

[colts18]

Let's say that's true, steals are still often team plays. And players often only acquire a steal because a bigger player is makes it possible. Additionally, just because a play is valuable, when successful, does not mean failed attempts don't exact a cost. Missed shots show up in BPM. Missed steals do not. And again, if we work with reality as opposed to outdated dogma...

The 3 guys with the best track record of making defenses better are in the bottom 4(Lebron's only here at all because of longetvity). The number 1 on this list grades out as a marginal positive in APM. No -7 or > defenses are represented, and the top 5 players are all guards; players whose arrivals, departures, and declines consistently have the least correlation with team defense improving in every single iteration of the league including the current one.

Thanks for making my point I guess

I don't know why you keep repeating the false talking point that BPM inflates steals.

I don't know why you keep repeating yourself:

Let's say that's true, steals are still often team plays. And players often only acquire a steal because a bigger player is makes it possible. Additionally, just because a play is valuable, when successful, does not mean failed attempts don't exact a cost. Missed shots show up in BPM. Missed steals do not. And again, if we work with reality as opposed to outdated dogma...

That was paragraph 2. Why notify me if you're just going to talk to yourself?

You can use your same logic with Blocks. Blocks are often a team play and missed Block attempts that lead to Rebounds or the defender being out of position aren't in the box score either.

The Fivethirtyeight article I posted proved that Steals are the most individual stat out there. When High Steals players are off the court, their team loses those steals. If Steals was a team play, that wouldn't be the case. A team play implies that when John Stockton leaves the court, the pressure that Malone, Hornacek, Eaton, Ostertag would lead to the same amount of steal opportunities which means his backup would get more steals. We don't see that at all.

From the article:

I tested for this by running a series of regressions using each player’s box score stats (points, rebounds, assists, etc.) to predict how much teams would suffer without a player in each particular area. In other words, for a player who averages X points, Y rebounds, Z assists, etc., how much does his team’s scoring decrease when he’s out? How much does its rebounding decrease? The way I’ve set it up, a stat’s irreplaceability will roughly run from zero (completely replaceable) to one (completely irreplaceable). Let’s visualize it like so:

So, look at the points-per-game column. Suppose a player averages one more point per game than another player. His team is likely to average only an additional .17 points with him on the floor because points are 83 percent replaceable. It would take almost six points of his scoring to add one additional point to his team’s tally.

For steals, the picture is much different. If a player averages one more steal than another player (say 2.5 steals per game instead of 1.5) his team is likely to average .96 more steals than it would without him (if all else stayed equal). That’s why, as an individual player action, steals are much more irreplaceable than points.

[OhayoKD]

I don't know why you keep repeating yourself:

That was paragraph 2. Why notify me if you're just going to talk to yourself?

You can use your same logic with Blocks. Blocks are often a team play and missed Block attempts that lead to Rebounds or the defender being out of position aren't in the box score either.

I have used that same logic on blocks. And have specifically criticized BPM for saying blocks from smaller players are more valuable when they're generally less valuable. That the value of blocks may be more misrepresented does not challenge that the value of steal-accumulators may also be overrated. And if you were actually following what I was arguing, you'd have realized my case doesn't hinge on the global value of an individual steal vs an individual block. Again, read:

The 3 guys with the best track record of making defenses better are in the bottom 4(Lebron's only here at all because of longetvity). The number 1 on this list grades out as a marginal positive in APM. No -7 or > defenses are represented, and the top 5 players are all guards; players whose arrivals, departures, and declines consistently have the least correlation with team defense improving in every single iteration of the league including the current one.

The question is how valuable. History shows that the highest-steal accumulators are guards and history also shows that guards consistently pale in comparison to even wings, let alone big-men in defensive value. That stays true if you use raw signals or lineup-adjusted ones. When D-BPM is consistently disagreeing with reality on the value of a certain archetype, it probably overrates the archetype. Furthermore...

[/quote]
[quote]
As was explained in the forum post you linked me to, box-score aggregates miss most defensive actions, including negative ones like blown steal attempts. They will also miss all the rim deterrence bigger players offer(the threat of being stopped matters too) which often allows smaller players to rack up blocks and steals. There's also no box-stat for communication and organization, missed rotations, blowby's ect.

The result is that the accumulation of blocks and steals gets disproportionate emphasis which leads to (physically)"active" defenders("steal accumulators") contributions being treated as significantly more important than they actually are while simultaneously suffering no penalty for plays where they hurt their team defensively(which can happen when you're hunting for steals).

Setting aside that the RAPM set you linked uses a box prior, none of the players you listed grade as top-tier defenders with lineup-adjusted(that includes RAPM) or raw data excepting Hakeem who ranks outside the top 30 in spg and at the bottom of your accumulative list. Lebron looks like a top tier defensive non-big with all the metrics/stats(adjusted or raw) but only makes your list thanks to his longevity(he ranks outside the top 70 in spg). Pippen is the best example here but he's still well behind the guards. Consequently Pippen grades out at as a weaker defender than Jordan per Dbpm even though it was Pippen's ascension, not Mike's that sparked the bulls defense becoming elite.

As far as Dbpm is concerned, Lebron and Stockton are peers. RAPM doesn't agree. Pure signals don't agree, and the quality of the defenses they've led doesn't agree. As it so happens, when we look at more predictive metrics like LEBRON, we see that almost every team's most valuable defender is an "anchor big", not steal-accumulating guards.

This leaves us with two possibilities.

A. DBPM overrates steal-accumulators
B. DBPM is right and everything that's more directly tied to winning is wrong

I'm going with b, you're welcome to die on the hill of a

[KGtabake]

Irrelevant.
He would have been the goat if he kept his body in shape for 4-5 seasons after his move to Miami.
1-2 more rings and a total of 16-17 years of total domination. He didn't need the free throws just like Giannis doesn't need them today.

[OhayoKD]

Irrelevant.
He would have been the goat if he kept his body in shape for 4-5 seasons after his move to Miami.
1-2 more rings and a total of 16-17 years of total domination. He didn't need the free throws just like Giannis doesn't need them today.

"Total Domination" is an interesting way to describe winning one MVP, winning less than four of your contemporaries, and falling well short of the best in your own era by every empirical measure that isn't "ft's per game"

[FuShengTHEGreat]

70% Shaq would need the history to be revisited as hack a shaq would not have worked

If he shot 70 or even 80% vs Utah would that have really made a difference in how those series turned out?

Of course nobody is 100% flawless and can be the greatest at every aspect of the game.

Jordan and Magic weren't exactly the greatest 3pt shooters but the bulk of their careers they won titles without utilizing the shot much and it didnt affect their teams....but they both got better at it so it wasn't a facet opponents could use to exploit.

Hakeem was a mediocre passer/reading defences but got better later into his career where teams could pay for doubling him.


Shaq had a glaring flaw in his game with PnR coverage certain instances (Utah) it was exploited I don't think he ever got better at it. He didn't like stepping out the paint for the most part on switches onto opposing guards (Detroit in 04).

How are you supposedly the GOAT when come playoff time your individual flaw becomes so apparent you have to hope to avoid certain matchups so it doesnt come to the forefront?