Who would be LESS of an outlier in today’s game : 91 MJ or 16 Curry?

[1993Playoffs]

This isn’t a discussion about who is better, but whose game would stand out less in today’s league as opposed to that specific year they played

Would peak MJ stand out less because he’s a primary mid range shooter and there are much more talented wings they can score, pass, and or defend at higher levels than back in MJs time ?


Or would peak Curry be less of an outlier because the league has pretty much caught up to those warriors offense’s of the mid 2010s? The league is much more efficient now compared to 2016

Paraphrasing “Thinking basketball” he said those exact same warriors teams would stand out much less in today’s league

[Cavsfansince84]

With MJ there is a lot more conjecture in terms of how defense and offense have both changed in the last 30 years. With Steph I think we saw a pretty similar version of 2016 Steph in 2022. Slightly worse in some ways but I think slightly better in others. With MJ I think his scoring might go up but even that will depend on team composition to some degree. If you ask me who I'd rather have to lead a team in the playoffs its definitely MJ. In terms of rs I think MJ would gain more from the current spacing and defensive rules.

[parsnips33]

Dame shot 37% on 11 3s a game this season

Steph in 2016 shot 45% on 11 3s a game

He'd still be a massive outlier

[rate_]

Dame shot 37% on 11 3s a game this season

Steph in 2016 shot 45% on 11 3s a game

He'd still be a massive outlier

What are the assisted v. unassisted numbers for each?

[MiamiBulls]

Dame shot 37% on 11 3s a game this season

Steph in 2016 shot 45% on 11 3s a game

He'd still be a massive outlier

The league average in TS% in 2016 was 54%
League average 2pt% was 49.1%

In 2023 the league average in TS% is 58%
League average 2pt% is 54.8%

In League where Embiid is averaging 35ppg per 75 on +7% rTS and Jokic is averaging 27ppg per 75 on +12% rTS. Lillard averaging 32 per 75 on nearly +7% rTS. Curry wouldn't be any massive outlier. The NBA is just too efficient and Offensive Ratings are too high today for that to be the case.

[euroleague]

Dame shot 37% on 11 3s a game this season

Steph in 2016 shot 45% on 11 3s a game

He'd still be a massive outlier

That's because defenses weren't focusing on 3 pointers in 2016. We are talking about playing in today's game, not just the same ppg/efficiency.

[tsherkin]

Dame shot 37% on 11 3s a game this season

Steph in 2016 shot 45% on 11 3s a game

He'd still be a massive outlier

That's because defenses weren't focusing on 3 pointers in 2016. We are talking about playing in today's game, not just the same ppg/efficiency.

I think he's saying that the level of production Steph brings is still an outlier. Steph's shooting 42.6% on 11.4 3PA/g this season as well. He remains the only player to have a season of 11+ 3PA/g and 40%+ 3P and this is his fourth time doing it. Lillard is shooting 37.1% on 11+ this year and James Harden has managed 11+ 3PA/g and 35%+ on two occasions. Those are the only other examples of that feat in league history. As you say, 3pt focus has changed, but Steph is still a large outlier. Not as much as he was in 2016, of course, but I believe where parsnips is going with this is that he's still sufficiently deviant from what everyone else can do that he'd be more of an outlier as a player than Jordan would be in today's game.

Interesting to consider. 91 MJ had his peak athleticism and his jumper, though not quite to the same level as he was shooting in 96 and 97. We've seen the Wade thread recently and Jordan was taller and faster and a more consistent shooter than Wade. He'd obviously excel in the present environment, even in the absence of a 3pt shot, though I suspect he'd still manage enough of a 3 to keep the D honest. Would he be an outlier? 30 years later, is it that surprising to see a fast, 6'6 guard with a jumper and iso game, bit of post game? No, not really. He also wouldn't be quite as much of an athletic standout compared to his peers, nor as much of a size outlier.

But circling back to the premise, it's clear that neither of these guys would be quite the same deviation from league norms as when they broke into the league, so how do we measure exactly that the OP is after?

[henshao]

Steph would be less of an outlier by virtue of the fact he is literally still playing

[1993Playoffs]

Dame shot 37% on 11 3s a game this season

Steph in 2016 shot 45% on 11 3s a game

He'd still be a massive outlier

That's because defenses weren't focusing on 3 pointers in 2016. We are talking about playing in today's game, not just the same ppg/efficiency.

I think he's saying that the level of production Steph brings is still an outlier. Steph's shooting 42.6% on 11.4 3PA/g this season as well. He remains the only player to have a season of 11+ 3PA/g and 40%+ 3P and this is his fourth time doing it. Lillard is shooting 37.1% on 11+ this year and James Harden has managed 11+ 3PA/g and 35%+ on two occasions. Those are the only other examples of that feat in league history. As you say, 3pt focus has changed, but Steph is still a large outlier. Not as much as he was in 2016, of course, but I believe where parsnips is going with this is that he's still sufficiently deviant from what everyone else can do that he'd be more of an outlier as a player than Jordan would be in today's game.

Interesting to consider. 91 MJ had his peak athleticism and his jumper, though not quite to the same level as he was shooting in 96 and 97. We've seen the Wade thread recently and Jordan was taller and faster and a more consistent shooter than Wade. He'd obviously excel in the present environment, even in the absence of a 3pt shot, though I suspect he'd still manage enough of a 3 to keep the D honest. Would he be an outlier? 30 years later, is it that surprising to see a fast, 6'6 guard with a jumper and iso game, bit of post game? No, not really. He also wouldn't be quite as much of an athletic standout compared to his peers, nor as much of a size outlier.

But circling back to the premise, it's clear that neither of these guys would be quite the same deviation from league norms as when they broke into the league, so how do we measure exactly that the OP is after?

Just a side question I want to ask. Are you implying that Early 90s MJ’s jumper wasn’t as good as the late 90s or he just didn’t shoot it as much ?

[tsherkin]

Just a side question I want to ask. Are you implying that Early 90s MJ’s jumper wasn’t as good as the late 90s or he just didn’t shoot it as much ?

The former. I'd have to double check someone's tracking data to be sure of the particulars, but while it was obviously developed in 91 and 92, I recall seeing some explicit breakdowns of even further improved shooting during the second three-peat.