Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp

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Re: Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp 

Post#21 » by AEnigma » Sun Jun 25, 2023 6:28 pm

migya wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
migya wrote:53 wins in 1992. Maybe KJ was a superstar.

… Yes?

Did we finally stumble across a ‘90s guy you will not gas? :lol:

Besides the extra 1200 minutes for KJ, they also had 3000 minutes of peak Jeff Hornacek, whom I would probably ballpark as a top ~20-25 player that year.

At full health the 1993 Suns would be one of the three strongest supporting casts in the league, with a strong case for number one. But at full health they likely go for 65+ wins and there is really no question remaining, regardless of whether other players were better or otherwise had better box scores.

That all said…

If Barkley is disqualified because he in essence replaced 1200 minutes of KJ and 3000 minutes of Hornacek and only provided a 9-win swing… then with hindsight, what exactly is Jordan’s case? :oops:

Your gas is pretty weak.

Because I do not have an inclination here to gas anyone lol. Like this is just dumb: I said the Suns had one of the best casts but were not healthy, and I said Barkley was not a top two “best” player or on the level of Magic. It is not “gas” to say it might matter to lose thirty games of a player who for the prior four years had been the engine behind a team with a consistent top four point differential.

900 minutes extra of vastly improved Ceballos, 300 extra of Majerle and as I said, Dumas, the dynamic rookie, but anyway, it's the 90s it's no good, even a high volume, high efficiency shooter like Ainge :lol:

Ainge was decidedly not high volume, but we are quite literally comparing 1990s players to other 1990s players. I am more skeptical that peak Hornacek would be an all-star talent today, but he was one in 1992. Ceballos is better and you added Dumas, but Chambers is worse and you also subtracted Tim Perry and Andrew Lang (both of whom were playing over the suddenly praiseworthy Mark West). These are all relatively lateral changes even if you prefer the 1993 cast around their two stars.

We can extend past 1993 even. Next season, Ceballos and Oliver Miller are better, as you would expect. They add 2800 minutes of A.C. Green to replace Chambers. And you have an extra 800 minutes from KJ. Despite all that, the team drops six wins as Barkley plays 560 fewer minutes and the team again has a losing record without him (this time a more intuitively reasonable 8-9). How much of that are you actually placing on that “dynamic rookie” being suspended again.

Again, I do not even care much for Barkley. I think he was better in 1990 but would not have supported him as a top player then either (admittedly contextual: 1993 had an off-year injury recovery Robinson, a worse Ewing, and no Magic). It just so happens that you are trying to push an alternative case for a guy who had a healthier team which with hindsight we know needed him far less, yet which still won five fewer games than Barkley’s Suns.
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Re: Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp 

Post#22 » by pipfan » Sun Jun 25, 2023 10:16 pm

As a Bulls' fan I always felt MJ (and LBJ) won the correct amount of MVP's. Living in Chicago at the time, there are bit arguments to make, but Malone, Magic and Barkley were all worthy winners, and it makes for fun arguments. No one at the time doubted MJ was the best player, but he didn't need to win each MVP
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Re: Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp 

Post#23 » by AEnigma » Sun Jun 25, 2023 11:00 pm

pipfan wrote:As a Bulls' fan I always felt MJ (and LBJ) won the correct amount of MVP's. Living in Chicago at the time, there are bit arguments to make, but Malone, Magic and Barkley were all worthy winners, and it makes for fun arguments. No one at the time doubted MJ was the best player, but he didn't need to win each MVP

Yep.

Jordan had the best record in the league five times and won MVP four of those times. Lebron had the best record in the league three times and won MVP three of those times.

The exceptions:
2012 (+) — While I doubt Rose would have won, playing only 39/66 games certainly made that decision easier for voters, as did Durant not capturing the 1-seed in his own conference either.

1997 (-) — Yeah historical precedent says this one should have been Jordan, but…
1988 (+) — Historical precedent says this should have been either Magic or Bird, so things have a way of evening out.
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Re: Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp 

Post#24 » by HeartBreakKid » Sun Jun 25, 2023 11:01 pm

I think it's more likely Hakeem was overlooked in 93 than Jordan. That should have been his MVP.
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Re: Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp 

Post#25 » by OhayoKD » Mon Jun 26, 2023 12:40 am

tsherkin wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Constructive responses tend to follow constructive threads. There is no derail when that is the standard you set.

But if this is what you want, alright: no, he was not “thieved” in 1990 and 1993.

Glad I could be constructive for you.


Attempting to extract some valuable conversation here.

Why do you think others deserved the MVP more than Jordan in 90 and 93?

I think if you're looking at the full-season, Magic being picked seems fair. Jordan has an argument, but I'd say you could flip that for 88 anyway. 93 I think Hakeem is the best rs player anyway.
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Re: Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp 

Post#26 » by LukaTheGOAT » Mon Jun 26, 2023 1:53 am

Jordan should have been MVP in 1990 in my opinion. There is more to note outside of the numbers you posted

1990 MJ
IA 32.6 pts per 75 (rTS% of 6.9%)-(Very comparable scoring numbers to 1990 season mind you)

Goldstein's Estimated On/Off: 9.33 (+8.01 On, -1.32 Off)

Offensive Load of 53.6

Backpicks BPM-7.8
PIPM-7.11
RAPTOR-10.84
Predator-11.34
Estimated Impact-7.9
TWPR-48.51
Crafted Plus-Minus-11.1

1990 Magic Johnson

Goldstein's Estimated On/Off: 6.29 (+10.12 On, -3.84 Off)

Offensive Load of 51.9

Backpicks BPM-7.7
PIPM-5.94
RAPTOR-9.30
Predator-9.44
Estimated Impact-8.1
TWPR-38.24
Crafted Plus-Minus-9.7

From film review, and the numbers we have, it seems like largely what dropped MJ's impact (compared to his 88 and 89 versions), was his defensive motor in the RS being notably lower and thus his defensive impact. Jordan also had his largest offensive load at this point, and he wouldn't exceed this number until 1993. Still, I think there is a valid argument that Jordan's offensive impact was just as strong in 90 as ever before, and even with the lessened motor, I would put his defense ahead of Magic's.

If you believe 90's MJ's offensive impact was similar to 90 Magic, I think he should still be your MVP pick.
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Re: Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp 

Post#27 » by Colbinii » Mon Jun 26, 2023 2:23 am

I think--for the most part--MVP awards do a good job of telling us who was the combination of best/most consistent/best supporting cast for a given regular season. Sometimes they are catching lightning in a bottle, sometimes they are rewarding a player who hadn't won yet, and sometimes they are awarding a player for being the best in the way we have never seen [Rose, Kobe and Nash fit these 3 quite well].

That is what MVP says and that is how it should be viewed. Trying to say players deserve more MVP's because LeBron/Jordan were the guys you want in the post-season doesn't actually reflect the award [Regular Season MVP is the award].
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Re: Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp 

Post#28 » by Cavsfansince84 » Mon Jun 26, 2023 2:37 am

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Jordan should have been MVP in 1990 in my opinion. There is more to note outside of the numbers you posted

1990 MJ
IA 32.6 pts per 75 (rTS% of 6.9%)-(Very comparable scoring numbers to 1990 season mind you)

Goldstein's Estimated On/Off: 9.33 (+8.01 On, -1.32 Off)

Offensive Load of 53.6

Backpicks BPM-7.8
PIPM-7.11
RAPTOR-10.84
Predator-11.34
Estimated Impact-7.9
TWPR-48.51
Crafted Plus-Minus-11.1

1990 Magic Johnson

Goldstein's Estimated On/Off: 6.29 (+10.12 On, -3.84 Off)

Offensive Load of 51.9

Backpicks BPM-7.7
PIPM-5.94
RAPTOR-9.30
Predator-9.44
Estimated Impact-8.1
TWPR-38.24
Crafted Plus-Minus-9.7

From film review, and the numbers we have, it seems like largely what dropped MJ's impact (compared to his 88 and 89 versions), was his defensive motor in the RS being notably lower and thus his defensive impact. Jordan also had his largest offensive load at this point, and he wouldn't exceed this number until 1993. Still, I think there is a valid argument that Jordan's offensive impact was just as strong in 90 as ever before, and even with the lessened motor, I would put his defense ahead of Magic's.

If you believe 90's MJ's offensive impact was similar to 90 Magic, I think he should still be your MVP pick.


The problem is that hardly anything you're listing is even used by voters today(imo) much less around in 1990 and I get that you are more or less just making the case that MJ deserved it by being the best player that year. It's just that the mvp isn't really the best player award. We all know the listing of criteria is largely a. playing on a top 2 team in a conf. b. having a great season. c. legacy award d. factoring in voter fatigue or if the media wants to push a new star. So it combines all of that and I'm not even sure if voters use metrics much at all. Some maybe do but I'd bet close to half don't even bother.
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Re: Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp 

Post#29 » by LukaTheGOAT » Mon Jun 26, 2023 2:58 am

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:Jordan should have been MVP in 1990 in my opinion. There is more to note outside of the numbers you posted

1990 MJ
IA 32.6 pts per 75 (rTS% of 6.9%)-(Very comparable scoring numbers to 1990 season mind you)

Goldstein's Estimated On/Off: 9.33 (+8.01 On, -1.32 Off)

Offensive Load of 53.6

Backpicks BPM-7.8
PIPM-7.11
RAPTOR-10.84
Predator-11.34
Estimated Impact-7.9
TWPR-48.51
Crafted Plus-Minus-11.1

1990 Magic Johnson

Goldstein's Estimated On/Off: 6.29 (+10.12 On, -3.84 Off)

Offensive Load of 51.9

Backpicks BPM-7.7
PIPM-5.94
RAPTOR-9.30
Predator-9.44
Estimated Impact-8.1
TWPR-38.24
Crafted Plus-Minus-9.7

From film review, and the numbers we have, it seems like largely what dropped MJ's impact (compared to his 88 and 89 versions), was his defensive motor in the RS being notably lower and thus his defensive impact. Jordan also had his largest offensive load at this point, and he wouldn't exceed this number until 1993. Still, I think there is a valid argument that Jordan's offensive impact was just as strong in 90 as ever before, and even with the lessened motor, I would put his defense ahead of Magic's.

If you believe 90's MJ's offensive impact was similar to 90 Magic, I think he should still be your MVP pick.


The problem is that hardly anything you're listing is even used by voters today(imo) much less around in 1990 and I get that you are more or less just making the case that MJ deserved it by being the best player that year. It's just that the mvp isn't really the best player award. We all know the listing of criteria is largely a. playing on a top 2 team in a conf. b. having a great season. c. legacy award d. factoring in voter fatigue or if the media wants to push a new star. So it combines all of that and I'm not even sure if voters use metrics much at all. Some maybe do but I'd bet close to half don't even bother.


No doubt. I think that is fair. Magic probably fit more of the traditional criteria. I guess if you are asking who deserved MVP based on the most value added to their team/gave the most lift, this would be my answer.
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Re: Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp 

Post#30 » by OhayoKD » Mon Jun 26, 2023 4:09 am

LukaTheGOAT wrote:J
From film review, and the numbers we have, it seems like largely what dropped MJ's impact (compared to his 88 and 89 versions), was his defensive motor in the RS being notably lower and thus his defensive impact. Jordan also had his largest offensive load at this point, and he wouldn't exceed this number until 1993. Still, I think there is a valid argument that Jordan's offensive impact was just as strong in 90 as ever before, and even with the lessened motor, I would put his defense ahead of Magic's.

If you believe 90's MJ's offensive impact was similar to 90 Magic, I think he should still be your MVP pick.

Why does the estimated on/off not lineup with the on/off splits.

Magic would be at +13.96 and MJ at +9.33

Worth also pointing out that +7.9 on a much better team(in the regular season at least) is arguably better than +8.1 on a bad one and while we can say their was an impact-drop, we know outside of the boxscore, empirically magic looks a bit more valuable in the rs:
OhayoKD wrote:I have Jordan ahead(playoff elevation/presumed defensive edge), but a pro-Magic argument probably goes something like...
ceiling raiser wrote:Have been thinking about this recently. Argument would be something along the lines of:

• Similar +/- data from limited samples

Similar +/- Data, but Magic maintains a marginal but consistent advantage via "pure" signals. Concentrated stuff(largest impact sample we can get) favors Magic a bit. amd that advantage maintains if we look at averages(very small sample though, so take it a grain of salt):
penbeast0 wrote:Hakeem takes 33-win teams to 48 wins
Jordan takes 38-win teams to 53.5 wins
Magic takes 44-win teams to 59 wins

Keeping in mind that it's harder to lift better teams, Hakeem comes marginally behind Jordan, and slightly more behind Magic, but he's right up there with both.

Ben has his own(presumably more sophisticated) approach which likes Hakeem even better; "Prime WOWY" ranks Olajuwon 10th. Magic and Jordan rank 12th and 20th, respectively. Keep in mind the samples here are much, much smaller, but at least there aren't extraneous distortions to worry about as we may with something like WOWYR

If you don't care about sample-size(and myriad even noisier adjustments), Magic also looks best of the three in WOWYR-stuff ranking #1 in Prime WOWYR, #2 in Scaled WOWYR, #1 in Career WOWYR, and T-1 in scaled GPM. I put very little stock in all that, but, FWIW, Magic does look like the best player ever by that approach.

Potential counterpoint might be Magic's arrival coinciding with the smallest team-improvement(rookie) stuff but eh...rotation changed significantly, and Magic was a teenager(hakeem and jordan were not)...so I wouldn't use that tbh.

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
The problem is that hardly anything you're listing is even used by voters today(imo) much less around in 1990

We also don't actually have the data for stuff like RAPTOR. RAPTOR is not a measure of "lift" when applied to 1990. Even if voters had access to RAPTOR, it's basically a box-aggregate for the years in question.
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Re: Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp 

Post#31 » by tsherkin » Mon Jun 26, 2023 4:25 am

OhayoKD wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Constructive responses tend to follow constructive threads. There is no derail when that is the standard you set.

But if this is what you want, alright: no, he was not “thieved” in 1990 and 1993.

Glad I could be constructive for you.


Attempting to extract some valuable conversation here.

Why do you think others deserved the MVP more than Jordan in 90 and 93?

I think if you're looking at the full-season, Magic being picked seems fair. Jordan has an argument, but I'd say you could flip that for 88 anyway. 93 I think Hakeem is the best rs player anyway.


I don't disagree. I was just trying to start some useful conversation instead of just cracking on the OP.

I'm personally pretty OK with Magic winning in 1990. And in 93, I think there were other choices as well, Hakeem chief among them.
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Re: Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp 

Post#32 » by OhayoKD » Mon Jun 26, 2023 4:43 am

tsherkin wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
Attempting to extract some valuable conversation here.

Why do you think others deserved the MVP more than Jordan in 90 and 93?

I think if you're looking at the full-season, Magic being picked seems fair. Jordan has an argument, but I'd say you could flip that for 88 anyway. 93 I think Hakeem is the best rs player anyway.


I don't disagree. I was just trying to start some useful conversation instead of just cracking on the OP.

I'm personally pretty OK with Magic winning in 1990. And in 93, I think there were other choices as well, Hakeem chief among them.

A justification could be Magic having the best rs impact signals of the time period and Hakeem remaining competitive with Jordan in the RS despite a much worse off and on-court situation and then you can internally scale(93 is best year of a comparable player and 93 is a down-year, player a>) if you think that is representative.

Another could be the 93 Bulls barely being better than they were the next regular season(55-wins at full-strength in 94).

Beyond that, it really comes down to weighting their skill-sets though I think all 3 being similarly valuable is plausible given they all have significant advantages vs each other. I think in the playoffs Hakeem elevates the most(2nd best record as an srs underdog, beats a +10 san psrs opponent in 86(magic has only beaten 1, jordan has beaten 0), great box-improvement, great team-wide improvement from 92-95), MJ shines second brightest(88-91 sees the bulls improve in the postseason though in 90 specifically that improvement being more tied to mj than his teammates is questionable I think, significant box-improvement in 88/89 without context like the triangle to explain it), and Magic shines 3rd brightest(offesnes get better, but also, probably two of the worst chokes ever with the two houston losses, I think exploitable defensively), but that should have no influence on who is voted MVP.
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Re: Was Jordan thieved in 1990 and 1993 not getting mvp 

Post#33 » by migya » Mon Jun 26, 2023 5:28 am

tsherkin wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
Attempting to extract some valuable conversation here.

Why do you think others deserved the MVP more than Jordan in 90 and 93?

I think if you're looking at the full-season, Magic being picked seems fair. Jordan has an argument, but I'd say you could flip that for 88 anyway. 93 I think Hakeem is the best rs player anyway.


I don't disagree. I was just trying to start some useful conversation instead of just cracking on the OP.

I'm personally pretty OK with Magic winning in 1990. And in 93, I think there were other choices as well, Hakeem chief among them.


I agree, the votes weren't bad at all and the reasonings can be legit.

Thanks for steering this to conversation as it was meant.

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