Prime Kareem, Shaq and Jokic Offensively

Mikeball · Post #1 » by **Mikeball** » Thu Jun 22, 2023 5:20 pm

Just relative to era. Not who would do what in a different era. Who is the best offensively?

LukaTheGOAT · Post #2 » by **LukaTheGOAT** » Thu Jun 22, 2023 5:53 pm

Jokic. He's the only one here who could be argued to be a top 5 playmaker or so so ever out of this group. I think that is the big difference here.

Similar to Shaq, he is good enough to lead an offense that can defy historical trends (To be fair, they very much stepped up their defensive play):

Read on Twitter

However, Jokic didn't have another MVP level guy by his side to do it (01 has an argument for Kobe's best PS).

rk2023 · Post #3 » by **rk2023** » Thu Jun 22, 2023 6:03 pm

Jokic, Shaq, Kareem in that order

70sFan · Post #4 » by **70sFan** » Thu Jun 22, 2023 7:07 pm

Jokic
Kareem
Shaq

Post #5 » by **tsherkin** » Thu Jun 22, 2023 7:53 pm

Jokic
Kareem
Shaq

dygaction · Post #6 » by **dygaction** » Thu Jun 22, 2023 8:07 pm

OP asked relative to era, I think I will wait another year to jump boat and still go with Shaq for now.
Teams hoarded centers to foul Shaq as they knew he is inevitable on their path to championships. It is not until now teams will modify roster to plan for Jokic. Maybe we will see renewed interests of Javale McGee and Dwight Howard

OhayoKD · Post #7 » by **OhayoKD** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 12:51 am

Jokic by a million miles, Kareem is also pretty cleary 2 if you're going era-relative

70sFan · Post #8 » by **70sFan** » Fri Jun 23, 2023 5:48 am

OhayoKD wrote:Jokic by a million miles, Kareem is also pretty cleary 2 if you're going era-relative

What is Shaq advantage over Kareem if you don't go era-relative?

Icarus_prime · Post #9 » by **Icarus_prime** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 1:29 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Jokic. He's the only one here who could be argued to be a top 5 playmaker or so so ever out of this group. I think that is the big difference here.

Similar to Shaq, he is good enough to lead an offense that can defy historical trends (To be fair, they very much stepped up their defensive play):

Read on Twitter

However, Jokic didn't have another MVP level guy by his side to do it (01 has an argument for Kobe's best PS).

Haha this is actually my tweet from my twitter account

Thanks for referencing it! Not sure how you found the tweet :wink:

Ryoga Hibiki · Post #10 » by **Ryoga Hibiki** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 4:16 pm

Icarus_prime wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:Jokic. He's the only one here who could be argued to be a top 5 playmaker or so so ever out of this group. I think that is the big difference here.

Similar to Shaq, he is good enough to lead an offense that can defy historical trends (To be fair, they very much stepped up their defensive play):

Read on Twitter

However, Jokic didn't have another MVP level guy by his side to do it (01 has an argument for Kobe's best PS).

Haha this is actually my tweet from my twitter account Thanks for referencing it! Not sure how you found the tweet

I think it's more of a matter of RS data not being reliable.
The 01 were actually a very good defense that got lost in the Shaq-Kobe, and so were the Nuggets this year in their experimenting with lineups and coasting.

lessthanjake · Post #11 » by **lessthanjake** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 4:47 pm

I think prime Kareem is a pretty underrated offensive force. I’m not sure how basketball-reference calculates team offensive rating in the 1970s when we don’t have turnover numbers, but it lists the 1971 Bucks as having a 103.9 offensive rating, compared to a 97.2 league average (and #2 in the league was only 100.5). As I said, I’m not sure how they calculate that without knowing turnovers, but the Bucks did have the most points in the league while pretty obviously having one of the lowest paces in the league (near the bottom of the league in FGA and at the very bottom of the league in FTA). That was easily the most efficient offense in NBA history at that point. Prime Kareem was a genuine offensive phenomenon. That said, it’s hard to really evaluate Kareem in this regard, since we don’t have enough data.

It’s a bit easier to compare Jokic and Shaq. One data point we can use is to compare the team’s offensive rating with the player on the court to what the league average was. Of course, this isn’t perfect, since this sort of thing definitely depends on teammate quality, rotations, etc. But it can give us a sense.

This season, the Nuggets scored 125.6 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor. That’s compared to a league average of 114.8. So, when Jokic was on the floor, the Nuggets scored 9.4% more than league average. And, in the playoffs, with Jokic on the floor, the team’s offensive rating was 6.5% higher than the league playoff average. Both are very high!

Here’s the corresponding numbers for Shaq and the Lakers in the three-peat years:

1999-2000 Regular Season: 3.6% above league average
1999-2000 Playoffs: 5.9% above league average
2000-2001 Regular Season: 9.1% above league average
2000-2001 Playoffs: 6.0% above league average
2001-2002 Regular Season: 6.8% above league average
2001-2002 Playoffs: 6.4% above league average

So Shaq’s team never was quite as much of an offensive outlier with him on the court as the Nuggets were with Jokic on the court this year, though Shaq’s Lakers were close in the 2000-2001 year.

Of course, these numbers aren’t really definitive. One could point out that those Lakers faced more consistently elite defenses in the playoffs than the Nuggets did this year. Conversely, one could point out that Shaq had Kobe, and while Murray is really good he’s certainly no Kobe. And someone could look at rotational data and try to parse through which of these guys spent more time playing with their team’s bench players—which would tend to put downwards pressure on the team’s offensive rating in that player’s minutes.

On balance, though, I think Jokic is a superior offensive force even to prime Shaq, but I think it’s close.

LukaTheGOAT · Post #12 » by **LukaTheGOAT** » Tue Jun 27, 2023 9:08 pm

Icarus_prime wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:Jokic. He's the only one here who could be argued to be a top 5 playmaker or so so ever out of this group. I think that is the big difference here.

Similar to Shaq, he is good enough to lead an offense that can defy historical trends (To be fair, they very much stepped up their defensive play):

Read on Twitter

However, Jokic didn't have another MVP level guy by his side to do it (01 has an argument for Kobe's best PS).

Haha this is actually my tweet from my twitter account Thanks for referencing it! Not sure how you found the tweet

If you're account is analytics related in any manner, chances are I have found you. Love your posts btw.

Icarus_prime · Post #13 » by **Icarus_prime** » Wed Jun 28, 2023 12:12 am

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:
Icarus_prime wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:Jokic. He's the only one here who could be argued to be a top 5 playmaker or so so ever out of this group. I think that is the big difference here.

Similar to Shaq, he is good enough to lead an offense that can defy historical trends (To be fair, they very much stepped up their defensive play):

Read on Twitter

However, Jokic didn't have another MVP level guy by his side to do it (01 has an argument for Kobe's best PS).

Haha this is actually my tweet from my twitter account Thanks for referencing it! Not sure how you found the tweet

I think it's more of a matter of RS data not being reliable.
The 01 were actually a very good defense that got lost in the Shaq-Kobe, and so were the Nuggets this year in their experimenting with lineups and coasting.

To add more context to the Shaq-Kobe Lakers, they were number 1 in defensive rating in the year prior (2000), as well as having the best defensive rating in the 2001 playoffs.

My chart where I yellow highlighted the exceptions of historical championship trends; 2001 Lakers and 1995 Rockets as well indicates championship pedigree where they were coming off of winning a championship prior year. Both back to back title winners.