RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Stephen Curry)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
His longevity does trouble me. Ideally I'd rather nominate KD here, and maybe even Karl Malone or Dr J. Down the road, I'm sure I'll have Giannis over D.Rob. What I'd say in defence of D.Rob is his peak is one of the highest remaining. The lift he gives you as a complementary player, combined with that crazy floor carrying ability, is a big selling point. It all depends if you feel D.Rob crosses the "enough" longevity threshold. The improvement of the Spurs in 1990 from a lotto team to a contender says pretty much all you need to know about his RS impact.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
lessthanjake wrote:My biggest concern with David Robinson is that he really only had like 7 seasons as a major star. Maybe we could count 1998 and 1999 too, but I don’t know. I feel like those 7 seasons were great. The impact numbers we know on them are really good (on-off for the last three years of it are sky high with good “on”, WOWYR is sky high, the team was very bad the year before he showed up and the year he was injured, etc.). And, after that, he was an impactful player on a team that was good and even won two titles (with one of them being when he was still a very significant player). He was a great player, but the longevity is really low. Like, I don’t even think he’s really got *that* much of a longevity advantage against present-day guys like Giannis and Jokic.
To me, Robinson feels like a Garnett that has no pre-prime period, a shorter period as a major star (both with high impact and limited playoff success on a team with a bad supporting cast), and a shorter period as a post-prime post-prime player on a great and successful team. I actually feel like prime Robinson was probably a better basketball player than prime Garnett, but there’s just a lot less years of contribution there (and, while Garnett has already been voted in, I personally wouldn’t have voted him in at this point or anytime super soon).
Another analogy would be to Dwyane Wade, who had a similar number of prime years, followed by a similar number of years as an actual significant contributor on a great team. Robinson feels to me like he may have been the more impactful player, but at the same time, Wade did something Robinson never did—which is be the #1 player on a title team (and did so in extremely strong fashion in terms of playoff performance). Robinson perhaps didn’t have as much of a chance to do so, but the 2006 Heat actually weren’t a particularly great team, and in any event I don’t favor ranking players based on what they hypothetically could’ve done as opposed to what they actually did do.
So I'll say this:
You mention 7 seasons as a major star, and I'll say I have Robinson being on my Top 5 ballot 7 times.
How many guys have more seasons than that for me, and aren't already nominated?
5 guys:
Oscar Robertson (10 times)
Kevin Durant (8)
Karl Malone (8)
Dirk Nowitzki (8)
Bob Pettit (8)
I'd frankly understand picking all 5 of those guys above Robinson - not saying I would, but I get it - but that's not a lot of guys, and they aren't ahead by that much.
Now of course, aside from subjective differences, there's also the matter that arguably more guys should get the edge over Robinson for their sub-Top 5 seasons...but I would actually object to that pretty strongly, because I think Robinson was exceptionally valuable as his secondary scoring role in a way in which high primacy guys generally can't be. If one wants to argue that some of these other guys were better offensively than Duncan and so it's a knock on Robinson's offense that playing this way made sense, but in general I see Robinson's half-decade-ish period with Robinson as a pretty ideal thing for a guy who is no longer quite on that Top 5 level.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
Vote for #11 - Kobe Bryant
Alternate Vote - Stephen Curry
Nomination - Oscar Robertson
Seems like sort of an uncommon opinion compared to the voting body, but I am of the belief Kobe has the best career value out of the remaining pool of players. There's a good shot, gun to the head, that I would take the peaks of the other 4 players whom are nominees at the moment over Kobe's - but his case would be made and sharpened through longevity that trumps the field (especially Bird / Mikan here). With Curry it's a little bit different, as I feel Curry at ages 33-35 was simply a more proficient and impactful centerpiece than post 2010 Kobe aged to be - but Kobe's advantage in this head-to-head stems from his early ascension breaking out in 2001 / at the age of 22 (In 2026, this likely will be a very different comparison result wise). I see Kobe having accrued All-NBA+ quality years from 1999-2013 (15 all-in-all). In contrast, Bird played 13 majority+ seasons and Curry 12 across their whole careers. As I mentioned before, I also do not see peak (2008/09 Kobe) too far dispersed from the likes of Bird (86-87) or Curry (16-17). As I think all three flank these solid apex periods of play with various MVP-caliber seasons, it's the aggregate body of work that's making me confident upon taking Kobe here.
From a prior nomination round, Kobe compared to Bird:
In more of an absolute rather than comparative sense - some other reasons I'm high on Kobe - of course excluding his impressive longevity:
1. Incredible playoff translation. In spite of playing a fair share of elite defense after elite defense (and with his occasional wart, see 2004 vs. DET and 2008 vs. BOS) - Kobe holistically 'rose' in both measurements of box production and efficiency in a playoff setting. I see this as a testament to his inelastic scoring and approach to offense. With that said, I'm most certainly not commending such thinking as a means of 'this is how an offensive centerpiece ought to play' (as I feel it bleeds value and holds Kobe back from the 'fringe GOAT' offensive level in the grand scheme of things), but such clearly worked in the slate of games that matter most. While I vehemently disagree with the soon to be mentioned rhetoric, perhaps this is the prominent reason NBA players rate Kobe's game very highly - the ability to do everything in his power to break/crack a defender or die trying. Of course, this framework of play leads to a fair share of less than inspiring nights of play (whether RS or PS), but [once again] the inelasticity featured could provide [in theory and in proof of concept / reality] some remarkable games that could swing or clinch a pivotal playoff series.
2. Underrated offensive skillset / 'complete package'. I've semi-often cited this video and some higher-level thoughts in various Kobe analyses on the board before (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2272960&p=104735974&hilit=kobe#p104735974). In ElGee's analysis [which does extrapolate to an extensive slate of play], it's not hard to see Kobe move very well off the ball - fundamental to playing team offense efficiently in the triangle system - and make semi-advanced / high leverage interior reads off of drives. With Kobe's perimeter gravity (generating offense from the outside -> in [not saying he's quite the chaos creator Curry is here], ability to provide an offensive safety net through very resilient scoring, and underrated passing/movement chops - I see him as a player who could be deployed effectively as a floor and ceiling raiser (which has been empirically proven in both main Laker stints).
Furthermore, Kobe boasts a very polished, versatile synergy profile (I beliive proxy, unibrodavis, ohayokd all have posted &/or alluded to this before) where he functions well in many different sets and as a HC scorer - though he still is leaving some on the table from an efficiency standpoint by not getting out as much in transition and being a moderately above average rim scorer in terms of frequency and volume.
2008 Kobe Synergy Profile highlighted by Proxy in Greatest Peaks:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=100931713#p100931713
Same logic, but larger sample highlighted - h/t MyUniBroDavis:
3. Defensive ability. I'll put it out there to start. Yes, I believe a *lot* of the all-defensive selections were confusing, reputation oriented ones (1999 and 2000, he was certainly an all-time level guard defender with some other solid [and others, leaving a lot to be desired] defensive efforts throughout the 2000s). I'm aware catch-alls perhaps grade him sort of low - but I definitely don't think he was covered for in casts that often appeared to be rock solid defenses (sans the 2005-07 slate of play, which I'm not high on from a defensive standpoint anyways). From film, I see Kobe as a great man-defender in higher leverage situations, good - not great - defensive playmaker, superb communicator which I see holding value, and good outwards & horizontal rotator. There are some drawbacks such as gambling on steals, allowing blow-bys, getting caught ball watching - but I would reckon a holistic viewing of Kobe's defense coupled with team data to complement would regard him as a firm positive.
Alternate Vote - Stephen Curry
Nomination - Oscar Robertson
Seems like sort of an uncommon opinion compared to the voting body, but I am of the belief Kobe has the best career value out of the remaining pool of players. There's a good shot, gun to the head, that I would take the peaks of the other 4 players whom are nominees at the moment over Kobe's - but his case would be made and sharpened through longevity that trumps the field (especially Bird / Mikan here). With Curry it's a little bit different, as I feel Curry at ages 33-35 was simply a more proficient and impactful centerpiece than post 2010 Kobe aged to be - but Kobe's advantage in this head-to-head stems from his early ascension breaking out in 2001 / at the age of 22 (In 2026, this likely will be a very different comparison result wise). I see Kobe having accrued All-NBA+ quality years from 1999-2013 (15 all-in-all). In contrast, Bird played 13 majority+ seasons and Curry 12 across their whole careers. As I mentioned before, I also do not see peak (2008/09 Kobe) too far dispersed from the likes of Bird (86-87) or Curry (16-17). As I think all three flank these solid apex periods of play with various MVP-caliber seasons, it's the aggregate body of work that's making me confident upon taking Kobe here.
From a prior nomination round, Kobe compared to Bird:
Stacking up their true primes with a combination of box and impact, though I acknowledge this as far from an end-all, be-all:
Kobe:Spoiler:
Same approach for Bird in 1980-88:Spoiler:
Furthermore, some analysis back in 2016 from both's 5 year peaks:Spoiler:
It seems there's not much box-based evidence (am aware this leans much more on the offensive side) indicating a difference between the two offensively during this side. While I would take Bird's track record in the RS, I'm more keen on Kobe's playoff translation out of the two players. Considering (1) that 10 years >= a fringe MVP+ level would be more valuable than 9, (2) I don't see too substantial a gap (if any) in the value of the average season between the two players from this time frame, and (3) I would take Kobe's supporting years of 97-00 and 11-13 over 90-92 Bird [sort of obviously] - I feel comfortable taking Kobe in a career sense.
In more of an absolute rather than comparative sense - some other reasons I'm high on Kobe - of course excluding his impressive longevity:
1. Incredible playoff translation. In spite of playing a fair share of elite defense after elite defense (and with his occasional wart, see 2004 vs. DET and 2008 vs. BOS) - Kobe holistically 'rose' in both measurements of box production and efficiency in a playoff setting. I see this as a testament to his inelastic scoring and approach to offense. With that said, I'm most certainly not commending such thinking as a means of 'this is how an offensive centerpiece ought to play' (as I feel it bleeds value and holds Kobe back from the 'fringe GOAT' offensive level in the grand scheme of things), but such clearly worked in the slate of games that matter most. While I vehemently disagree with the soon to be mentioned rhetoric, perhaps this is the prominent reason NBA players rate Kobe's game very highly - the ability to do everything in his power to break/crack a defender or die trying. Of course, this framework of play leads to a fair share of less than inspiring nights of play (whether RS or PS), but [once again] the inelasticity featured could provide [in theory and in proof of concept / reality] some remarkable games that could swing or clinch a pivotal playoff series.
2. Underrated offensive skillset / 'complete package'. I've semi-often cited this video and some higher-level thoughts in various Kobe analyses on the board before (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2272960&p=104735974&hilit=kobe#p104735974). In ElGee's analysis [which does extrapolate to an extensive slate of play], it's not hard to see Kobe move very well off the ball - fundamental to playing team offense efficiently in the triangle system - and make semi-advanced / high leverage interior reads off of drives. With Kobe's perimeter gravity (generating offense from the outside -> in [not saying he's quite the chaos creator Curry is here], ability to provide an offensive safety net through very resilient scoring, and underrated passing/movement chops - I see him as a player who could be deployed effectively as a floor and ceiling raiser (which has been empirically proven in both main Laker stints).
Furthermore, Kobe boasts a very polished, versatile synergy profile (I beliive proxy, unibrodavis, ohayokd all have posted &/or alluded to this before) where he functions well in many different sets and as a HC scorer - though he still is leaving some on the table from an efficiency standpoint by not getting out as much in transition and being a moderately above average rim scorer in terms of frequency and volume.
2008 Kobe Synergy Profile highlighted by Proxy in Greatest Peaks:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=100931713#p100931713
Same logic, but larger sample highlighted - h/t MyUniBroDavis:
Spoiler:
3. Defensive ability. I'll put it out there to start. Yes, I believe a *lot* of the all-defensive selections were confusing, reputation oriented ones (1999 and 2000, he was certainly an all-time level guard defender with some other solid [and others, leaving a lot to be desired] defensive efforts throughout the 2000s). I'm aware catch-alls perhaps grade him sort of low - but I definitely don't think he was covered for in casts that often appeared to be rock solid defenses (sans the 2005-07 slate of play, which I'm not high on from a defensive standpoint anyways). From film, I see Kobe as a great man-defender in higher leverage situations, good - not great - defensive playmaker, superb communicator which I see holding value, and good outwards & horizontal rotator. There are some drawbacks such as gambling on steals, allowing blow-bys, getting caught ball watching - but I would reckon a holistic viewing of Kobe's defense coupled with team data to complement would regard him as a firm positive.
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
I'm not quite low on David Robinson's longevity as I think he logs Weak-MVP level years for most of the 90s (perhaps even until 2001, of course this is with the 1996-97 campaign missed). He, at minimum, has 11 all-NBA+ level years - where this is without me counting 2002 as one. What I'm not as high on is Robinson's best years - as I now see him being nominated / gaining steam in this regard.
Great defender whom in theory would be maximized as more of a 2-O, 1-D player playing off of an excellent self/team creator (heck even scaling down for Tim Duncan didn't yield great offenses - but serviceable ones catalyzed by Duncan's scoring safety-net blended with the best non-Russell defensive run in history). I am aware that his impact in the 1994-96 campaigns was astounding, and wasn't necessarily put forth in a situation to succeed / be optimized within that time frame. In a sense, he gets the 'playoff choker' moniker unfairly thrown his way in a sense where he's being penalized for his goodness and situational value (both on/off and WOWY studies, the latter to my recollection only, grade him very highly). Rather than making it too much of an indictment on Robinson, I just think that it more hinges on the difference between being a top-20 peak/prime player vs. the top-10 or so one that some Robinson supporters may be arguing off of the Box Score / limited APM & AuPM data there is to assess him.
The biggest reason I see this being the case is due to volume scoring (rather lack thereof). I would certainly take peak Robinson/Garnett in an all-time team builder / draft sort of exercise rather than a pragmatic "build around this star and their contract" hypothetical over (let's use close proximity and compared examples in - ) Hakeem and Duncan here. A great argument exists that the former two offer some great off-ball skills (harder to say in the pre synergy / 2nd spectrum era), but I don't think either showed an ability to warp defenses through scoring [thus serving as an offensive centerpiece] akin to Hakeem/Duncan. All 4 are clear pantheon+ level defenders, but I reckon I would take the other three listed here over Robinson on that end. As I mentioned earlier, I see this leading towards a gap in how good Hakeem/Duncan were at their best contrasted to Garnett and further contrasted to Robinson.
Great defender whom in theory would be maximized as more of a 2-O, 1-D player playing off of an excellent self/team creator (heck even scaling down for Tim Duncan didn't yield great offenses - but serviceable ones catalyzed by Duncan's scoring safety-net blended with the best non-Russell defensive run in history). I am aware that his impact in the 1994-96 campaigns was astounding, and wasn't necessarily put forth in a situation to succeed / be optimized within that time frame. In a sense, he gets the 'playoff choker' moniker unfairly thrown his way in a sense where he's being penalized for his goodness and situational value (both on/off and WOWY studies, the latter to my recollection only, grade him very highly). Rather than making it too much of an indictment on Robinson, I just think that it more hinges on the difference between being a top-20 peak/prime player vs. the top-10 or so one that some Robinson supporters may be arguing off of the Box Score / limited APM & AuPM data there is to assess him.
The biggest reason I see this being the case is due to volume scoring (rather lack thereof). I would certainly take peak Robinson/Garnett in an all-time team builder / draft sort of exercise rather than a pragmatic "build around this star and their contract" hypothetical over (let's use close proximity and compared examples in - ) Hakeem and Duncan here. A great argument exists that the former two offer some great off-ball skills (harder to say in the pre synergy / 2nd spectrum era), but I don't think either showed an ability to warp defenses through scoring [thus serving as an offensive centerpiece] akin to Hakeem/Duncan. All 4 are clear pantheon+ level defenders, but I reckon I would take the other three listed here over Robinson on that end. As I mentioned earlier, I see this leading towards a gap in how good Hakeem/Duncan were at their best contrasted to Garnett and further contrasted to Robinson.
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
so for all the people picking steph, i just want to go back to playoff resiliency again. i looked at the last project's Top 33 (just stopped at pippen due to time and less interest in the players below him) plus newer guys like jokic, giannis, embiid, and kawhi and then put in tatum and butler. i would've put in doncic but i only did ages 22-35 and doncic only had one season (though he would have led the list below).
all the data is from ages 22 to 35 and it looks at the BBRef stats PER, WS48, BPM, and TS% and compares each year to the regular season. the resilience at the end is just an average of the normalized increase/decrease for each value. +1 is a top 95% value and -1 is a bottom 6.5% value (couldn't use 5% because the lower values were so low that they were making the average season as slightly "resilient"). for playoff runs shorter than 10 games, the final value was multiplied by "Games/10" so a 5 game, 1 round playoffs would get weighed at 50%. the 2nd table is all 416 playoff runs for these guys. the 1st table is their career average (each playoff run weighed equally to essentially average your resiliency from year to year).
ignoring the gargantuan outlier that is joel embiid, and also karl malone, steph finds himself lumped in way down at the bottom. i feel like he's way more james harden than people want to admit. and to the thrust of some of my earlier points, here is how it looks at his 2015-2019 peak in the 4 seasons where there was actually some threat (warriors down in series/playing competitive series):
that's an average of -0.508. in other words, when it wasn't the easiest, most pressure-free playoff run ever, at his peak he basically showed the same anti-resilience as massive anti-resilience outlier joel embiid. and he somehow got 2 titles and a another finals where game 7 was tied with a minute to go. so much of his ring total seems to be based on having one of the largest margins of error ever and managing to win rings even when significantly underperforming his regular season play, either because the other team got injured at just the right time (2015 cleveland/2018 rockets) or he had the most talented roster ever at his side (2016 1 minute away from winning/2018). it's such a luxury so many others didn't get.
from 2014-2023, except for 2022:
regular season: he never dipped below a PER of 24, with 3 seasons above 28 (and a 31.5).
post season: dipped below a PER of 23 (5x) more than he was above 24 (3x), with no seasons above 28 and only 1 above 25 (27.1). the one of course in 2017.
regular season: 7 seasons of 0.200 WS48 (ok, one was 0.199) or above with 3 of at least 0.267 WS48
post season: only 3 seasons that even eclipsed 0.185 WS48 and one of those was right at 0.203 WS48 (to his credit, it was 2022). only 1 up there in the 0.267 range, and it was 2017 of course.
he does a little better in BPM but still, seasons of 8.7, 9.9, and 11.9 in the regular season, and then 8.8 and 9.7 in the playoffs, with the 9.7 of course being 2017.
this is steph compared to known playoff maestro james harden. see a difference in these numbers? i really don't (average rank is the average of the rank of the individual stats). even down to them being best over their whole careers and worst at their peaks.

to me, it's hard to see him over kobe. kobe already has the longevity. he has playoff resilience. he has more absolute titles, and let's not act like playing with shaq was way easier than being on the durant warriors.
where steph's average series victory is as a +4.2 SRS favorite and his average series loss is only as a -0.1 SRS underdog, kobe's average series victory is as a paltry +1.4 SRS favorite and his average series loss as a -2.6 SRS underdog.
this isn't strictly just a shaq thing. if you don't include anything with shaq, the numbers are still only +1.9 and -3.0 for kobe. from the 2009 finals to the 2010 finals, the lakers played 5 series as an average of a 0.6 SRS favorite and won them all. that's pretty impressive.
resultantly, kobe has the actual vs expected titles advantage, and is actually pretty amazing in that regard.
kobe has 5 titles with an amazing 1.4 expected titles. his +3.6 delta is behind only people from the 60's celtics and his +254% is behind only hakeem. steph isn't terrible, but +1.4 and +51% isn't as shiny of an accomplishment. and he has a little bit of an advantage from not racking up a lot of playoff appearances on good/not great teams, where you tend to collect at least a fraction of an expected championship but with no real chance of winning one. steph just either made the playoffs with a team that could go to the finals or just missed the playoffs.
throw together the longevity on top of the playoff resiliency, both team and individual and it seems like kobe should be above steph. what i'm less clear on, and what i've been dreading, is what to do with bird. i can't very well be the playoff resiliency guy and the "actual vs expected" guy and pimp for bird, who is about even with steph in resiliency and worse in "actual vs expected" and certainly doesn't have amazing longevity. 4 years of "meh" playoffs to start his career up to 1983 and then 1987 is basically his last dominant playoffs? it's hard to ignore him showing up as a rookie and the celtics just immediately becoming a +7 SRS, 60 win team and then staying there for about a decade. it's also hard to ignore 1991, well past his prime, where the celtics are 46-14 with him (63 win pace) and 10-12 without him (37 win pace), for a nice +26 WOWY at the age of 34. that's a lot of WOWY as a rookie and out to 12 years into his career. with 8 straight top 2 MVP finishes in there. but man, playoff underperformance after playoff underperformance.
i don't know if i've posted it here, but between the ages of 23-35, larry bird had 5 playoff series with a TS% below 46. all of them were at home and he lost 4 of them, and 4 of them were during his 1981-1988 prime and he lost 3 of them, with only the 1981 finals against a sub 0.500 team being the win.
playoff series below 46 TS% between the ages of 23-35
larry bird - 5
Jordan, Lebron, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, Magic, Wilt, Kobe, Durant, Curry, Harden, Kawhi, Dirk, Malone, Barkley combined - 5
and wilt's 1 series arguably shouldn't count given the era he was playing in.
all the data is from ages 22 to 35 and it looks at the BBRef stats PER, WS48, BPM, and TS% and compares each year to the regular season. the resilience at the end is just an average of the normalized increase/decrease for each value. +1 is a top 95% value and -1 is a bottom 6.5% value (couldn't use 5% because the lower values were so low that they were making the average season as slightly "resilient"). for playoff runs shorter than 10 games, the final value was multiplied by "Games/10" so a 5 game, 1 round playoffs would get weighed at 50%. the 2nd table is all 416 playoff runs for these guys. the 1st table is their career average (each playoff run weighed equally to essentially average your resiliency from year to year).
Code: Select all
Rank Player Name Career Avg
1 Kawhi Leonard 0.4561
2 Hakeem Olajuwon 0.3315
3 George Mikan 0.3246
4 Lebron James 0.2747
5 Bill Russell 0.2548
6 Walt Frazier 0.2318
7 Jerry West 0.2142
8 Michael Jordan 0.2081
9 Tim Duncan 0.166
10 Magic Johnson 0.0968
11 Scottie Pippen 0.0963
12 Oscar Robertson 0.0865
13 Kobe Bryant 0.0856
14 Charles Barkley 0.0779
15 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 0.0554
16 Dirk Nowitzki 0.0534
17 Jayson Tatum 0.0247
18 Nikola Jokic 0.0205
19 Shaquille O'neal 0.0179
20 Moses Malone 0.0093
21 Dwyane Wade -0.0021
22 Chris Paul -0.0156
23 Julius Erving -0.0231
24 Jimmy Butler -0.0341
25 Wilt Chamberlain -0.0851
26 Kevin Garnett -0.1115
27 Larry Bird -0.1327
28 Kevin Durant -0.1435
29 Patrick Ewing -0.1446
30 David Robinson -0.1552
31 Steve Nash -0.1582
32 Stephen Curry -0.1613
33 Bob Pettit -0.1624
34 John Stockton -0.182
35 Giannis Antetokounmpo -0.1975
36 James Harden -0.1982
37 Karl Malone -0.2959
38 Joel Embiid -0.533
Code: Select all
Rank Player Name Season Age PER TS% WS/48 BPM Resilience
1 George Mikan 1953-54 29 4.6 7.7 0.133 1.3491
2 Tim Duncan 2005-06 29 7.3 10.2 0.065 3.6 1.2829
3 Jerry West 1960-61 22 5.3 8.5 0.09 1.2777
4 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1969-70 22 6.9 5.6 0.099 1.2741
5 Hakeem Olajuwon 1996-97 34 4.9 7 0.075 5.7 1.2296
6 Hakeem Olajuwon 1986-87 24 4.7 10.5 0.062 4 1.1957
7 Dirk Nowitzki 2008-09 30 5.3 7.1 0.067 3.5 1.0901
8 Jimmy Butler 2021-22 32 6.3 1.2 0.063 5.5 1.0544
9 Lebron James 2008-09 24 5.7 2.7 0.081 4.3 1.0482
10 Kawhi Leonard 2016-17 25 3.9 6.2 0.05 4.8 1.0369
11 Lebron James 2019-20 35 4.7 7 0.065 2.3 0.9788
12 Hakeem Olajuwon 1987-88 25 15.6 8.6 0.203 10.1 0.9464
13 Kawhi Leonard 2020-21 29 4.6 5.7 0.039 3.4 0.9338
14 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1976-77 29 4.6 3.8 0.049 2.8 0.8582
15 Scottie Pippen 1989-90 24 2.4 4.1 0.062 3.6 0.8555
16 Julius Erving 1975-76 25 3.3 4.1 0.059 3 0.8493
17 Bill Russell 1964-65 30 1.4 6.8 0.052 0.8415
18 Bill Russell 1965-66 31 2.9 6.6 0.026 0.8314
19 Dirk Nowitzki 2009-10 31 5.4 6.5 0.097 6.5 0.8056
20 George Mikan 1948-49 24 4.3 0.8001
21 Charles Barkley 1993-94 30 5 1.2 0.023 3.6 0.7728
22 Lebron James 2017-18 33 3.6 -0.2 0.048 4 0.7544
23 Michael Jordan 1994-95 31 2.7 6.4 -0.017 3.8 0.7539
24 Lebron James 2016-17 32 3.1 3 0.054 2.2 0.7401
25 Stephen Curry 2016-17 28 2.5 3.5 0.043 2.8 0.7399
26 Bill Russell 1961-62 27 3.2 3 0.04 0.7373
27 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1973-74 26 3.9 1.9 0.047 2.4 0.7334
28 Larry Bird 1983-84 27 2.1 5.5 0.021 2.7 0.7257
29 Kobe Bryant 2009-10 31 2.8 2.2 0.03 2.9 0.6826
30 Dwyane Wade 2015-16 34 2 1.5 0.043 3 0.6639
31 Bill Russell 1962-63 28 2.3 4.4 0.012 0.65
32 Nikola Jokic 2018-19 23 3.3 0.7 0.037 2.5 0.6474
33 Julius Erving 1976-77 26 2 2.4 0.027 2.9 0.6462
34 Oscar Robertson 1972-73 34 3.8 6.1 0.088 0.6455
35 Larry Bird 1980-81 24 1.9 0.4 0.038 3.4 0.6353
36 Kobe Bryant 2008-09 30 2.4 0.3 0.032 3.2 0.6259
37 Tim Duncan 1998-99 22 1.9 3.2 0.03 2.1 0.6253
38 Julius Erving 1978-79 28 2 3 0.038 2.8 0.6194
39 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1983-84 36 2.7 -1.6 0.043 3.3 0.6106
40 Kawhi Leonard 2018-19 27 2.1 1.3 0.025 2.9 0.6088
41 Chris Paul 2010-11 25 5.2 9.2 0.01 3.4 0.6012
42 Michael Jordan 1997-98 34 2.9 1.2 0.027 2.1 0.5951
43 Walt Frazier 1973-74 28 2.6 2.9 0.021 1.6 0.5912
44 Bill Russell 1960-61 26 3.9 0.3 0.02 0.5896
45 Jerry West 1968-69 30 2.9 -1.5 0.058 0.5818
46 James Harden 2020-21 31 -0.6 5.5 0.055 1.9 0.5791
47 Tim Duncan 2002-03 26 1.5 1.3 0.031 2.6 0.5787
48 Kevin Durant 2018-19 30 2.6 3 0.002 2.1 0.5772
49 Stephen Curry 2021-22 33 3 0.5 0.03 1.9 0.5712
50 Bill Russell 1959-60 25 1.9 0.8 0.038 0.5561
51 Jerry West 1967-68 29 1.9 0.6 0.037 0.5438
52 Hakeem Olajuwon 1985-86 23 1.4 0.6 0.045 1.9 0.5427
53 Lebron James 2015-16 31 2.5 -0.3 0.032 2 0.534
54 Kobe Bryant 2000-01 22 0.5 0.3 0.064 1.7 0.5294
55 Magic Johnson 1985-86 26 1.6 -1.1 0.041 2.6 0.529
56 Dirk Nowitzki 2003-04 25 5 0 0.097 5.7 0.5288
57 Tim Duncan 2001-02 25 4.8 -2.6 -0.01 3.8 0.5083
58 Scottie Pippen 1988-89 23 -0.5 2 0.024 2.7 0.502
59 Bob Pettit 1962-63 30 1.1 1.8 0.022 0.4983
60 Charles Barkley 1985-86 22 1.4 1.2 0.013 2.1 0.4927
61 Kobe Bryant 2011-12 33 2.5 -0.2 0.011 2.1 0.4894
62 Jerry West 1962-63 24 1.2 2.5 0.008 0.487
63 Moses Malone 1982-83 27 0.6 0.9 0.012 2.7 0.4829
64 Luka Doncic 2021-22 22 3.5 0.6 0.005 1.1 0.4812
65 Walt Frazier 1974-75 29 7.4 13.5 0.09 5.3 0.471
66 Lebron James 2013-14 29 1.7 1.9 0.005 1.5 0.4704
67 Jimmy Butler 2018-19 29 0.9 -0.7 0.022 2.5 0.456
68 Walt Frazier 1970-71 25 0.7 1.6 0.019 0.4555
69 Shaquille O'neal 1995-96 23 1 0.5 -0.015 3.1 0.4429
70 Shaquille O'neal 1997-98 25 2.2 1.7 -0.024 2 0.4427
71 Hakeem Olajuwon 1993-94 31 2.4 0.3 -0.002 1.7 0.4426
72 Chris Paul 2015-16 30 7 0 0.069 6.1 0.4396
73 Dwyane Wade 2009-10 28 1.4 8.8 0.005 4.3 0.4325
74 Kevin Durant 2011-12 23 1.3 2.2 0.001 1.1 0.427
75 Michael Jordan 1990-91 27 0.4 -0.5 0.012 2.6 0.4211
76 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1979-80 32 2.6 -2.8 0.026 1.7 0.4206
77 Tim Duncan 2013-14 37 -0.2 3.3 0.04 -0.2 0.4156
78 Kawhi Leonard 2015-16 24 2.6 -1.9 -0.006 2.4 0.4123
79 Magic Johnson 1981-82 22 -0.4 2.4 0.024 1 0.4117
80 John Stockton 1986-87 24 -0.8 14.5 0.026 0.8 0.3948
81 Kevin Durant 2016-17 28 -0.1 3.2 0.002 1 0.3947
82 Larry Bird 1985-86 29 -1.7 3.5 0.019 1.2 0.3907
83 Scottie Pippen 1990-91 25 1.4 0.3 0.018 0.7 0.3866
84 Moses Malone 1988-89 33 2.9 2.6 0.03 3.8 0.3788
85 Wilt Chamberlain 1964-65 28 -1.5 3.9 0.003 0.373
86 Tim Duncan 2011-12 35 0.4 -0.2 0.01 1.7 0.3687
87 Dwyane Wade 2004-05 23 1.2 0 0.003 1.3 0.3672
88 Walt Frazier 1972-73 27 0 2.5 -0.007 0.3647
89 Chris Paul 2007-08 22 2.4 -1.1 0.005 0.9 0.3632
90 Kevin Durant 2010-11 22 0.5 -0.7 0.028 1 0.3585
91 Michael Jordan 1989-90 26 0.5 -1.4 -0.001 2.5 0.3555
92 Jerry West 1961-62 23 -0.7 2 0.008 0.353
93 Scottie Pippen 1999-00 34 1.1 -1.1 0.003 1.7 0.3515
94 Dwyane Wade 2005-06 24 -0.7 1.6 0.001 1.6 0.3505
95 Charles Barkley 1998-99 35 5.9 3.3 0.023 3.4 0.3479
96 Tim Duncan 2000-01 24 1.6 -0.5 -0.027 2.2 0.3478
97 Shaquille O'neal 1996-97 24 1.9 -0.4 0.018 0.7 0.3468
98 Kevin Garnett 2000-01 24 1 3.8 0.079 4.1 0.3437
99 Jimmy Butler 2019-20 30 0.2 3.1 -0.012 0.5 0.3367
100 Karl Malone 1993-94 30 1.7 -1.9 0.016 0.9 0.3341
101 Steve Nash 2009-10 35 0.8 1.9 -0.003 0.3 0.3337
102 Magic Johnson 1987-88 28 -0.2 1.9 -0.001 0.9 0.3329
103 Walt Frazier 1971-72 26 -0.1 1 0.004 0.3301
104 Dwyane Wade 2010-11 29 0.7 -1.1 -0.002 1.8 0.3273
105 Oscar Robertson 1970-71 32 1.5 -3 0.027 0.3258
106 Kevin Durant 2020-21 32 0.5 -3.6 0.008 2.8 0.3245
107 Kawhi Leonard 2019-20 28 0.9 0.4 0.002 0.5 0.3138
108 Dirk Nowitzki 2010-11 32 1.8 -0.3 -0.003 0.4 0.3109
109 Oscar Robertson 1973-74 35 0.9 0.1 -0.007 0.9 0.306
110 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1978-79 31 1 2.4 0.003 0.4 0.3049
111 Chris Paul 2014-15 29 -0.3 3.1 -0.022 0.7 0.3015
112 Chris Paul 2012-13 27 2.8 3.9 -0.02 0.9 0.2897
113 Kobe Bryant 2007-08 29 0.8 0.1 -0.03 1.6 0.2866
114 Charles Barkley 1994-95 31 1.4 0.8 -0.008 -0.1 0.2852
115 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2017-18 23 -0.7 2.2 0.032 0.9 0.2843
116 Wilt Chamberlain 1963-64 27 -0.3 0.6 -0.002 0.2798
117 Karl Malone 1991-92 28 -0.4 1.9 -0.017 0.8 0.2763
118 Shaquille O'neal 2003-04 31 0.4 -1.3 0.01 0.7 0.2685
119 Shaquille O'neal 2002-03 30 1.1 -3.2 -0.01 1.9 0.2606
120 John Stockton 1990-91 28 -1.6 4 -0.009 0.4 0.2597
121 Jerry West 1965-66 27 0.1 0.8 -0.019 0.2537
122 Patrick Ewing 1992-93 30 0.8 -1.1 -0.015 1.1 0.2536
123 Moses Malone 1979-80 24 0.8 1.7 -0.024 1.5 0.2443
124 Kawhi Leonard 2022-23 31 6 4.7 0.033 7.7 0.244
125 Magic Johnson 1986-87 27 -0.8 0.5 0.002 0.5 0.2421
126 Hakeem Olajuwon 1992-93 30 -0.6 -0.9 -0.013 1.6 0.2354
127 Michael Jordan 1992-93 29 0.4 -1.1 0 0.4 0.2302
128 David Robinson 1990-91 25 -1.3 14.5 -0.03 0 0.2288
129 Dirk Nowitzki 2005-06 27 -1.3 0.7 -0.012 1.1 0.2286
130 Jayson Tatum 2020-21 22 2.8 0.1 -0.023 2.6 0.2283
131 Dwyane Wade 2003-04 22 0.1 -0.3 0.001 0.1 0.2271
132 Magic Johnson 1983-84 24 0.2 -2.7 0.007 1 0.2243
133 Dirk Nowitzki 2007-08 29 1.7 0.3 -0.027 3 0.2149
134 Bob Pettit 1959-60 27 -0.4 0.5 -0.019 0.2109
135 George Mikan 1951-52 27 1 1.8 -0.062 0.2029
136 Tim Duncan 2008-09 32 2.9 0.5 -0.02 1.3 0.1997
137 Wilt Chamberlain 1959-60 23 -1.1 0.5 -0.004 0.1993
138 Chris Paul 2016-17 31 1.6 -2.2 -0.018 1.7 0.1979
139 Michael Jordan 1985-86 22 2.6 5.1 0.001 2.2 0.1953
140 John Stockton 1985-86 23 0.2 7.8 0.008 -0.6 0.19
141 Jimmy Butler 2014-15 25 -0.5 -2.1 -0.011 1.2 0.1796
142 Steve Nash 2004-05 30 1.4 -0.2 -0.039 0 0.1781
143 Kawhi Leonard 2013-14 22 -0.7 0.4 -0.002 -0.4 0.1756
144 Kevin Garnett 1998-99 22 1.7 -0.5 -0.011 2.8 0.1727
145 Nikola Jokic 2019-20 24 -0.1 0.9 -0.03 0 0.1718
146 Charles Barkley 1995-96 32 2.7 -2.3 0.006 2.3 0.1712
147 James Harden 2019-20 30 -1.6 1 -0.001 -0.2 0.1712
148 David Robinson 2000-01 35 0.8 -2.1 -0.039 1.3 0.1709
149 Julius Erving 1973-74 23 -1.7 0.8 0.014 -0.7 0.1671
150 John Stockton 1996-97 34 0.6 -2.9 -0.025 1.2 0.1653
151 Tim Duncan 2006-07 30 1.3 -2.3 -0.016 -0.1 0.1568
152 Walt Frazier 1968-69 23 1.1 -3.5 -0.009 0.156
153 John Stockton 1988-89 26 3 -2.3 -0.006 3.7 0.1498
154 Hakeem Olajuwon 1990-91 28 -1.1 8 0.001 0.8 0.1486
155 Oscar Robertson 1961-62 23 -0.6 3.2 -0.004 0.1483
156 George Mikan 1949-50 25 -0.6 0.147
157 Kevin Durant 2017-18 29 -0.9 -3.4 0.022 0.3 0.1467
158 Hakeem Olajuwon 1994-95 32 0.7 -0.3 -0.038 0 0.1465
159 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1982-83 35 -0.8 -1.1 -0.033 1.1 0.1364
160 Jerry West 1963-64 25 0.9 0.2 -0.022 0.1319
161 Dirk Nowitzki 2001-02 23 0.7 -2.2 -0.029 0.9 0.1309
162 David Robinson 1998-99 33 -1.6 -0.1 -0.018 0.4 0.1287
163 Joel Embiid 2019-20 25 0.8 1 -0.027 1.5 0.1272
164 Julius Erving 1977-78 27 -0.5 -2.2 -0.008 0.2 0.1204
165 Dirk Nowitzki 2000-01 22 -0.5 -2.8 -0.018 0.9 0.1191
166 Patrick Ewing 1996-97 34 -0.3 -0.1 -0.035 0.1 0.1108
167 Chris Paul 2020-21 35 -0.7 -1.5 -0.023 0.4 0.1089
168 Bill Russell 1967-68 33 -0.3 -0.3 -0.042 0.102
169 Oscar Robertson 1962-63 24 0.1 -1.4 -0.035 0.1008
170 Shaquille O'neal 2007-08 35 1.8 -10.3 0.024 2.8 0.1
171 Kevin Garnett 2011-12 35 0.1 -0.9 -0.029 -0.4 0.0978
172 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1984-85 37 -0.8 -2.6 -0.01 0.3 0.095
173 Scottie Pippen 1991-92 26 -1.4 -1.1 -0.024 0.5 0.095
174 George Mikan 1955-56 31 0.4 -1.3 0.016 0.0896
175 Shaquille O'neal 2000-01 28 -1.5 -1 0.015 -1.2 0.0867
176 Michael Jordan 1988-89 25 -1.2 -1.2 -0.022 0.2 0.0866
177 Jimmy Butler 2012-13 23 -0.8 0.1 -0.053 0.5 0.0866
178 Hakeem Olajuwon 1988-89 26 -1.1 -0.3 -0.015 1.4 0.0862
179 Jerry West 1972-73 34 -0.5 -2.1 -0.022 0.0792
180 Lebron James 2006-07 22 -0.6 -3.6 -0.006 0 0.0618
181 Charles Barkley 1988-89 25 -2.7 3.8 -0.037 0.9 0.0578
182 Patrick Ewing 1995-96 33 -2.8 0.6 -0.039 0.8 0.0561
183 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2019-20 25 -0.6 -0.3 -0.041 -0.3 0.056
184 Julius Erving 1972-73 22 -2.8 2.4 -0.034 0.0512
185 Dirk Nowitzki 2011-12 33 0.8 -0.4 -0.036 -0.5 0.0484
186 Lebron James 2011-12 27 -0.4 -2.9 -0.014 -0.4 0.0479
187 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2020-21 26 -1.6 -3.4 -0.02 0.9 0.0453
188 Jayson Tatum 2022-23 24 -1.1 -2.2 -0.017 -0.2 0.0452
189 Scottie Pippen 1997-98 32 -0.9 -3.3 -0.027 0.6 0.0424
190 Oscar Robertson 1966-67 28 -2.6 3.4 -0.051 0.04
191 Michael Jordan 1991-92 28 -0.5 -0.8 -0.058 0.2 0.0378
192 Michael Jordan 1995-96 32 -2.7 -1.8 -0.011 0.2 0.0288
193 Wilt Chamberlain 1960-61 24 -1.1 -2.7 -0.001 0.0269
194 John Stockton 1987-88 25 -0.7 -2.7 -0.037 0.3 0.0263
195 Magic Johnson 1984-85 25 -0.9 -3.8 -0.01 -0.1 0.0252
196 Moses Malone 1978-79 23 5 -10.3 -0.034 1.7 0.0243
197 Karl Malone 1999-00 36 -1.3 0.2 -0.055 -0.2 0.0181
198 David Robinson 1999-00 34 1 -10.5 -0.018 2.6 0.0147
199 Steve Nash 1997-98 23 0.9 -4.5 -0.056 1 0.0129
200 Patrick Ewing 1994-95 32 -3 0.4 -0.006 -1.2 0.0128
201 David Robinson 1989-90 24 -1.9 -1.6 -0.022 -0.3 0.0106
202 Bob Pettit 1956-57 24 -3.2 1 -0.038 0.0028
203 Kevin Garnett 2001-02 25 1.7 -2.2 -0.073 -0.5 0.0015
204 Hakeem Olajuwon 1984-85 22 -1.4 -7.4 -0.008 1.7 0.0014
205 Jerry West 1966-67 28 -4.6 0 -0.2 0
206 Patrick Ewing 1987-88 25 -1.2 -3.2 -0.034 0.2 -0.0044
207 Shaquille O'neal 2001-02 29 -1.4 -2.1 -0.026 -0.5 -0.007
208 Stephen Curry 2012-13 24 -0.8 -3.1 -0.019 -0.7 -0.0085
209 Patrick Ewing 1989-90 27 -0.4 -2 -0.05 -0.3 -0.0088
210 Michael Jordan 1996-97 33 -0.7 -4.3 -0.048 1 -0.0109
211 Charles Barkley 1990-91 27 -2.1 -0.5 -0.041 -0.4 -0.0136
212 Michael Jordan 1986-87 23 -1.7 -3.3 -0.082 1.9 -0.0157
213 Scottie Pippen 1998-99 33 1.9 -8.2 -0.035 0.2 -0.0173
214 Wilt Chamberlain 1971-72 35 -0.7 -4.8 -0.014 -0.025
215 John Stockton 1992-93 30 -2.7 -2.4 -0.032 0.1 -0.0259
216 Kevin Garnett 2009-10 33 -1.8 -3.9 -0.023 0.3 -0.0261
217 Jimmy Butler 2013-14 24 -2.1 -1.5 -0.035 -0.8 -0.0301
218 Shaquille O'neal 1994-95 22 -2.5 0.7 -0.05 -0.6 -0.0307
219 Moses Malone 1987-88 32 -2.9 -1.4 -0.038 -0.3 -0.0341
220 Moses Malone 1986-87 31 -4.5 0.6 -0.073 0.4 -0.0355
221 Chris Paul 2019-20 34 -2.4 -0.6 -0.052 -0.3 -0.039
222 Jerry West 1964-65 26 1.7 -3.8 -0.072 -0.0392
223 Oscar Robertson 1963-64 25 -2.9 -0.8 -0.033 -0.0423
224 Lebron James 2009-10 25 -2.5 0.3 -0.057 -0.3 -0.043
225 Larry Bird 1989-90 33 -1.2 -0.7 -0.051 -1.6 -0.043
226 Nikola Jokic 2022-23 27 -0.3 -7 -0.003 -0.2 -0.0432
227 Scottie Pippen 1995-96 30 -1.6 -7.8 -0.014 1.5 -0.0476
228 Chris Paul 2013-14 28 -2.3 0.3 -0.075 0.2 -0.049
229 James Harden 2014-15 25 -1.9 1.5 -0.063 -1.2 -0.0493
230 Stephen Curry 2018-19 30 -1.8 -2.1 -0.014 -1.4 -0.0509
231 Moses Malone 1981-82 26 -2.5 -8.7 -0.035 1.4 -0.0534
232 Kobe Bryant 2006-07 28 -2 -1.9 -0.078 0.2 -0.0584
233 Julius Erving 1981-82 31 -3.4 -1.2 -0.044 0.3 -0.061
234 Bill Russell 1968-69 34 0.1 -1.9 -0.077 -0.0662
235 Chris Paul 2018-19 33 -2.1 -0.3 -0.04 -1.4 -0.0713
236 John Stockton 1997-98 35 -1.8 -5.9 -0.027 0.8 -0.0713
237 Julius Erving 1984-85 34 -3.1 -2.9 -0.027 0.1 -0.0732
238 Walt Frazier 1967-68 22 -1.8 -3.2 -0.062 -0.0736
239 Kawhi Leonard 2014-15 23 -2.1 0.4 -0.061 -1.5 -0.0761
240 Wilt Chamberlain 1961-62 25 -2.4 -2.8 -0.026 -0.0776
241 Shaquille O'neal 1999-00 27 -0.1 -2.2 -0.059 -1.2 -0.0827
242 Larry Bird 1979-80 23 -2.2 -2.7 -0.046 -0.2 -0.0855
243 Karl Malone 1988-89 25 -2.3 -1.8 -0.093 -1.8 -0.0878
244 Oscar Robertson 1965-66 27 -0.9 -3.3 -0.074 -0.0885
245 Julius Erving 1979-80 29 -2.9 -1.5 -0.035 -0.7 -0.0892
246 Bill Russell 1958-59 24 -1.9 -3.9 -0.024 -0.0901
247 James Harden 2015-16 26 -3.5 -4.3 -0.098 2.2 -0.0938
248 Charles Barkley 1992-93 29 -1 -4.4 -0.027 -0.9 -0.094
249 Steve Nash 2001-02 27 -2 -1.7 -0.057 -0.8 -0.0955
250 David Robinson 1992-93 27 -2.6 -4 -0.025 -0.3 -0.108
251 Kevin Garnett 2002-03 26 -1.4 -1.4 -0.084 -1.4 -0.1145
252 Dwyane Wade 2016-17 35 -3 -3.6 -0.027 -1.5 -0.1163
253 Karl Malone 1994-95 31 -0.5 -4 -0.096 -0.9 -0.1185
254 Lebron James 2014-15 30 -0.6 -9 -0.026 0.8 -0.119
255 Scottie Pippen 1993-94 28 -0.4 -2.3 -0.045 -2.1 -0.1203
256 Bill Russell 1963-64 29 -0.4 -5.5 -0.039 -0.1246
257 Charles Barkley 1997-98 34 -5.4 -0.6 -0.063 -1.8 -0.1248
258 Nikola Jokic 2021-22 26 0.3 -1.8 -0.094 -3 -0.1283
259 Bill Russell 1957-58 23 -1.2 -4.5 -0.044 -0.1301
260 Bill Russell 1956-57 22 -2.2 -5.2 -0.014 -0.1311
261 Moses Malone 1983-84 28 -4.8 -1.5 -0.065 -0.9 -0.1317
262 James Harden 2011-12 22 -0.2 -5.5 -0.046 -0.8 -0.1381
263 George Mikan 1950-51 26 -3.2 -0.1397
264 Hakeem Olajuwon 1997-98 35 -2 -8.2 -0.082 1.1 -0.1399
265 Kevin Garnett 1999-00 23 -3.1 -10.4 -0.07 1.1 -0.1483
266 Shaquille O'neal 2006-07 34 -1.8 -3.8 -0.111 -1.7 -0.1509
267 Scottie Pippen 1992-93 27 -2.3 -0.6 -0.049 -2 -0.1516
268 Joel Embiid 2020-21 26 -4.1 -0.5 -0.069 0 -0.1523
269 Moses Malone 1980-81 25 -2.7 -4.8 -0.028 -0.4 -0.1532
270 Kobe Bryant 2001-02 23 -2.7 -3.3 -0.051 -0.3 -0.1563
271 Steve Nash 2005-06 31 -2 -1.7 -0.059 -1.3 -0.1563
272 Magic Johnson 1989-90 30 -1.6 -2.4 -0.048 -2.1 -0.166
273 Patrick Ewing 1991-92 29 -2.9 -6.1 -0.031 0.3 -0.1686
274 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1980-81 33 -3.1 -9.9 -0.071 -2.2 -0.1699
275 Scottie Pippen 1994-95 29 -3.7 -1 -0.038 -1.6 -0.1729
276 Wilt Chamberlain 1965-66 29 -2.3 -4.7 -0.082 -0.1746
277 George Mikan 1952-53 28 -2.3 -2.6 -0.059 -0.1766
278 Bob Pettit 1958-59 26 -5.3 -1.5 -0.058 -0.1805
279 Michael Jordan 1987-88 24 -3.3 -0.5 -0.074 -0.8 -0.1808
280 Dirk Nowitzki 2002-03 24 -2.4 1.2 -0.077 -2.2 -0.1811
281 Joel Embiid 2018-19 24 -4.3 -3.4 -0.045 0.2 -0.183
282 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2016-17 22 -4.2 -3.6 -0.072 -0.7 -0.1874
283 Tim Duncan 2004-05 28 -2.1 -1.4 -0.054 -2.1 -0.1887
284 Wilt Chamberlain 1968-69 32 -3.6 -4.6 -0.015 -0.1903
285 James Harden 2021-22 32 -4.1 0.1 -0.04 -2.1 -0.1908
286 David Robinson 1995-96 30 -0.3 -2 -0.076 -2.2 -0.1924
287 Magic Johnson 1982-83 23 -2.4 -4.8 -0.051 -0.3 -0.1931
288 Chris Paul 2017-18 32 -1.6 -3.9 -0.072 -0.5 -0.1947
289 Jerry West 1969-70 31 -3.5 -2.2 -0.05 -0.1984
290 Scottie Pippen 1996-97 31 -3.2 -2.8 -0.058 -0.6 -0.1989
291 Jayson Tatum 2021-22 23 -4.2 -1.6 -0.059 -0.5 -0.1993
292 James Harden 2012-13 23 -2.1 -5.2 -0.106 -0.3 -0.2012
293 Hakeem Olajuwon 1989-90 27 -3.6 -6.3 -0.092 -1.9 -0.2015
294 Tim Duncan 2003-04 27 -3 2.6 -0.066 -3.3 -0.2024
295 Magic Johnson 1990-91 31 -2.4 -2.5 -0.058 -1.4 -0.2044
296 Dwyane Wade 2008-09 27 -4.1 -0.9 -0.037 -3.3 -0.2049
297 Larry Bird 1991-92 35 -4.6 -3.3 -0.09 -3.3 -0.2127
298 Karl Malone 1987-88 24 -2.3 -3.1 -0.058 -1.4 -0.22
299 Lebron James 2010-11 26 -3.6 -3.1 -0.046 -1 -0.221
300 Charles Barkley 1986-87 23 -4.9 -1.1 -0.06 -4.1 -0.2225
301 Kobe Bryant 2003-04 25 -2.7 -4.5 -0.065 -0.3 -0.2325
302 Magic Johnson 1988-89 29 -3.5 -1.6 -0.067 -1.2 -0.2336
303 Bob Pettit 1960-61 28 -2.9 -1.7 -0.078 -0.2374
304 Oscar Robertson 1964-65 26 -5.9 -3.3 -0.112 -0.2409
305 Tim Duncan 2012-13 36 -3.1 -3.1 -0.03 -2.4 -0.2465
306 Moses Malone 1984-85 29 -4.5 -6.8 -0.033 0.6 -0.2487
307 Stephen Curry 2014-15 26 -3.5 -3.1 -0.06 -1.1 -0.2591
308 Karl Malone 1986-87 23 -4.6 -5.4 -0.064 -3.1 -0.2609
309 Julius Erving 1985-86 35 -3.3 -2.9 -0.046 -2 -0.2646
310 Wilt Chamberlain 1967-68 31 -2 -4.6 -0.064 -0.265
311 Scottie Pippen 2000-01 35 -5.5 -5.2 -0.178 -4 -0.272
312 Patrick Ewing 1993-94 31 -2.3 -5.6 -0.061 -0.8 -0.2729
313 Charles Barkley 1996-97 33 -2.5 -2.4 -0.06 -2.4 -0.2742
314 Larry Bird 1982-83 26 -3.8 -8.3 -0.091 -0.1 -0.2773
315 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1981-82 34 -3.3 -5.8 -0.048 -0.6 -0.2774
316 Bob Pettit 1964-65 32 -7.3 -4.8 -0.096 -0.2785
317 Kobe Bryant 2010-11 32 -3.3 -1.2 -0.079 -1.8 -0.2806
318 Bob Pettit 1957-58 25 -3.7 -2 -0.075 -0.2875
319 Shaquille O'neal 1998-99 26 -1.8 -6.9 -0.079 -1.1 -0.2878
320 Shaquille O'neal 2005-06 33 -4.5 -1.5 -0.061 -1.7 -0.2907
321 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1977-78 30 -7.3 -6.3 -0.127 -5.6 -0.2978
322 Tim Duncan 2007-08 31 -2.5 -5.8 -0.078 -0.3 -0.3006
323 Kevin Garnett 2007-08 31 -2.3 -4.6 -0.066 -1.6 -0.3034
324 Wilt Chamberlain 1966-67 30 -1.2 -9.1 -0.032 -0.3075
325 Steve Nash 2007-08 33 -4.3 -10.3 -0.078 -1.8 -0.3127
326 Dwyane Wade 2013-14 32 -3.5 -2.8 -0.063 -2 -0.3141
327 Steve Nash 2006-07 32 -1.9 -7.7 -0.06 -0.7 -0.3163
328 Karl Malone 1990-91 27 -3.4 -6 -0.071 -0.7 -0.3189
329 Hakeem Olajuwon 1995-96 33 -5.5 -1.4 -0.087 -1.8 -0.324
330 Jimmy Butler 2017-18 28 -6.8 -3.3 -0.1 -3.2 -0.3242
331 Lebron James 2007-08 23 -4.8 -4.3 -0.055 -0.8 -0.3245
332 Oscar Robertson 1971-72 33 -2.5 -7.8 -0.033 -0.3298
333 Kevin Durant 2012-13 24 -2.3 -7.3 -0.081 0 -0.3304
334 Joel Embiid 2017-18 23 -4.8 -5.4 -0.059 -1.5 -0.3328
335 Stephen Curry 2013-14 25 -5.3 -1.1 -0.094 -3 -0.3364
336 Karl Malone 1997-98 34 -3.7 -6.3 -0.075 -0.2 -0.3561
337 Lebron James 2012-13 28 -3.5 -5.5 -0.062 -1.3 -0.357
338 Patrick Ewing 1988-89 26 -3 -7.1 -0.043 -2.3 -0.3624
339 Karl Malone 1995-96 32 -2.4 -7.7 -0.062 -1 -0.3626
340 Julius Erving 1983-84 33 -7.7 -3.1 -0.109 -3.8 -0.3714
341 Moses Malone 1990-91 35 -4.1 -16.9 -0.052 -1.4 -0.3719
342 Wilt Chamberlain 1969-70 33 -4.5 -2.6 -0.081 -0.3819
343 Steve Nash 2003-04 29 -5 -13 -0.07 -2.5 -0.385
344 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1970-71 23 -3.7 -5.8 -0.055 -0.3874
345 Stephen Curry 2022-23 34 -3.7 -6.8 -0.061 -1 -0.3875
346 Dwyane Wade 2011-12 30 -4.3 -3.3 -0.062 -2.6 -0.4016
347 Steve Nash 2002-03 28 -4.5 -1.1 -0.093 -2.4 -0.4045
348 James Harden 2016-17 27 -4.4 -3 -0.088 -1.7 -0.406
349 Tim Duncan 2010-11 34 -6.4 -3.7 -0.118 -3.3 -0.4182
350 James Harden 2022-23 33 -3.1 -6.9 -0.077 -1.3 -0.4247
351 James Harden 2013-14 24 -5.2 -9.9 -0.11 -1.4 -0.4254
352 Larry Bird 1990-91 34 -3.9 -4 -0.062 -3 -0.4327
353 Steve Nash 2000-01 26 -4.5 -5 -0.087 -1.1 -0.4364
354 Kobe Bryant 2002-03 24 -4 -1.9 -0.079 -3.4 -0.4365
355 John Stockton 1991-92 29 -3.4 -4.2 -0.093 -2.1 -0.4402
356 Walt Frazier 1969-70 24 -4.6 -4.4 -0.073 -0.4402
357 Karl Malone 2000-01 37 -5 -8.8 -0.169 -2.7 -0.4494
358 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2022-23 28 -10.2 -8 -0.23 -6.5 -0.4503
359 Bill Russell 1966-67 32 -3.3 -6.4 -0.088 -0.4538
360 Charles Barkley 1989-90 26 -2.1 -7.2 -0.093 -1.8 -0.4637
361 Patrick Ewing 1990-91 28 -13.4 -8.9 -0.204 -5.6 -0.4643
362 Larry Bird 1981-82 25 -4.7 -8.3 -0.051 -1.2 -0.4685
363 Jimmy Butler 2016-17 27 -5.7 -5.8 -0.12 -4 -0.4714
364 Wilt Chamberlain 1970-71 34 -1.2 -7.9 -0.097 -0.4782
365 Bob Pettit 1955-56 23 -5.9 -2 -0.128 -0.4798
366 John Stockton 1994-95 32 -3.8 -10.5 -0.146 -4.7 -0.485
367 John Stockton 1993-94 31 -2.6 -8.5 -0.07 -2.3 -0.5014
368 Julius Erving 1974-75 24 -6.1 -5.8 -0.154 -5.9 -0.506
369 Kobe Bryant 2005-06 27 -8.1 2.8 -0.137 -5.2 -0.5077
370 Karl Malone 1989-90 26 -7.5 -12.1 -0.138 -2.9 -0.5258
371 John Stockton 1999-00 37 -4 -4.3 -0.09 -3.1 -0.5258
372 David Robinson 1997-98 32 -3.7 -8.5 -0.086 -2.2 -0.5265
373 Larry Bird 1986-87 30 -4.6 -3.5 -0.091 -3.1 -0.5283
374 James Harden 2018-19 29 -5.4 -4.9 -0.065 -2.9 -0.5303
375 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2018-19 24 -4.4 -7.4 -0.073 -2 -0.5329
376 Kevin Garnett 2010-11 34 -3.3 -9.6 -0.081 -2.3 -0.5377
377 Nikola Jokic 2020-21 25 -1.7 -5.6 -0.12 -3.1 -0.5451
378 David Robinson 1993-94 28 -8.7 -10.6 -0.191 -5.7 -0.5479
379 Dwyane Wade 2012-13 31 -5.3 -7.3 -0.084 -1.3 -0.5533
380 John Stockton 1989-90 27 -5.9 -12.5 -0.132 -5.4 -0.5689
381 Jimmy Butler 2022-23 33 -3.6 -8.2 -0.088 -2.2 -0.5758
382 Stephen Curry 2017-18 29 -5.9 -8.5 -0.085 -0.6 -0.5779
383 Larry Bird 1984-85 28 -5.6 -4.9 -0.083 -2.8 -0.5793
384 Julius Erving 1980-81 30 -4.5 -4.5 -0.114 -2.7 -0.5912
385 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2021-22 27 -5.3 -8.1 -0.103 -0.8 -0.5973
386 Kevin Garnett 2003-04 27 -4.4 -3.4 -0.109 -3.7 -0.6008
387 Kevin Durant 2022-23 34 -4.8 -7.8 -0.08 -2.5 -0.6138
388 Karl Malone 1992-93 29 -9.6 -8.4 -0.153 -6.1 -0.6316
389 Tim Duncan 2009-10 33 -5 -3.3 -0.124 -3.3 -0.6373
390 John Stockton 1998-99 36 -3.8 -8.4 -0.101 -2.5 -0.6439
391 John Stockton 1995-96 33 -4.9 -9.8 -0.058 -2.9 -0.6534
392 Dirk Nowitzki 2006-07 28 -6.7 -9.6 -0.15 -5.2 -0.6661
393 James Harden 2017-18 28 -4.9 -7.1 -0.126 -1.8 -0.6693
394 Karl Malone 1998-99 35 -4.4 -8.5 -0.117 -2.2 -0.696
395 Bob Pettit 1963-64 31 -5.3 -5.2 -0.129 -0.71
396 Larry Bird 1987-88 31 -7.6 -7 -0.092 -2.1 -0.7164
397 David Robinson 1994-95 29 -6.5 -6.6 -0.097 -3.1 -0.731
398 Patrick Ewing 1997-98 35 -12.6 -14.5 -0.201 -8.2 -0.7426
399 Kevin Durant 2021-22 33 -12 -10.8 -0.224 -10.1 -0.7548
400 Dwyane Wade 2006-07 25 -13.7 -10.4 -0.279 -8.8 -0.8033
401 Julius Erving 1982-83 32 -7.1 -7 -0.104 -3.6 -0.8207
402 Shaquille O'neal 2004-05 32 -8.9 -2.9 -0.122 -4.2 -0.8482
403 Dirk Nowitzki 2004-05 26 -6 -7.3 -0.144 -3.6 -0.8855
404 Jerry West 1971-72 33 -4.3 -10.1 -0.138 -0.8998
405 Kevin Durant 2013-14 25 -7.2 -6.5 -0.15 -3.8 -0.94
406 Karl Malone 1996-97 33 -6.7 -9.9 -0.141 -4.3 -1.0398
407 Dirk Nowitzki 2013-14 35 -9.7 -12.3 -0.188 -6.3 -1.0506
408 Jimmy Butler 2020-21 31 -16.8 -21.3 -0.319 -9.1 -1.0524
409 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1972-73 25 -10.8 -13.3 -0.242 -1.0699
410 Chris Paul 2011-12 26 -7 -5.6 -0.175 -5.5 -1.0739
411 Chris Paul 2008-09 23 -13.9 -9.4 -0.327 -9.5 -1.0762
412 Stephen Curry 2015-16 27 -9.2 -6.6 -0.166 -4.9 -1.143
413 Kevin Durant 2015-16 27 -7.9 -9.2 -0.14 -5.9 -1.1686
414 Joel Embiid 2021-22 27 -12.1 -2.6 -0.135 -9.1 -1.3246
415 Joel Embiid 2022-23 28 -11.1 -9.4 -0.169 -7.3 -1.3324
416 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1971-72 24 -7.5 -14.1 -0.193 -1.4556
ignoring the gargantuan outlier that is joel embiid, and also karl malone, steph finds himself lumped in way down at the bottom. i feel like he's way more james harden than people want to admit. and to the thrust of some of my earlier points, here is how it looks at his 2015-2019 peak in the 4 seasons where there was actually some threat (warriors down in series/playing competitive series):
Code: Select all
2014-15 -0.2591
2015-16 -1.143
2017-18 -0.5779
2018-19 -0.0509
that's an average of -0.508. in other words, when it wasn't the easiest, most pressure-free playoff run ever, at his peak he basically showed the same anti-resilience as massive anti-resilience outlier joel embiid. and he somehow got 2 titles and a another finals where game 7 was tied with a minute to go. so much of his ring total seems to be based on having one of the largest margins of error ever and managing to win rings even when significantly underperforming his regular season play, either because the other team got injured at just the right time (2015 cleveland/2018 rockets) or he had the most talented roster ever at his side (2016 1 minute away from winning/2018). it's such a luxury so many others didn't get.
from 2014-2023, except for 2022:
regular season: he never dipped below a PER of 24, with 3 seasons above 28 (and a 31.5).
post season: dipped below a PER of 23 (5x) more than he was above 24 (3x), with no seasons above 28 and only 1 above 25 (27.1). the one of course in 2017.
regular season: 7 seasons of 0.200 WS48 (ok, one was 0.199) or above with 3 of at least 0.267 WS48
post season: only 3 seasons that even eclipsed 0.185 WS48 and one of those was right at 0.203 WS48 (to his credit, it was 2022). only 1 up there in the 0.267 range, and it was 2017 of course.
he does a little better in BPM but still, seasons of 8.7, 9.9, and 11.9 in the regular season, and then 8.8 and 9.7 in the playoffs, with the 9.7 of course being 2017.
this is steph compared to known playoff maestro james harden. see a difference in these numbers? i really don't (average rank is the average of the rank of the individual stats). even down to them being best over their whole careers and worst at their peaks.

to me, it's hard to see him over kobe. kobe already has the longevity. he has playoff resilience. he has more absolute titles, and let's not act like playing with shaq was way easier than being on the durant warriors.
where steph's average series victory is as a +4.2 SRS favorite and his average series loss is only as a -0.1 SRS underdog, kobe's average series victory is as a paltry +1.4 SRS favorite and his average series loss as a -2.6 SRS underdog.
this isn't strictly just a shaq thing. if you don't include anything with shaq, the numbers are still only +1.9 and -3.0 for kobe. from the 2009 finals to the 2010 finals, the lakers played 5 series as an average of a 0.6 SRS favorite and won them all. that's pretty impressive.
resultantly, kobe has the actual vs expected titles advantage, and is actually pretty amazing in that regard.
kobe has 5 titles with an amazing 1.4 expected titles. his +3.6 delta is behind only people from the 60's celtics and his +254% is behind only hakeem. steph isn't terrible, but +1.4 and +51% isn't as shiny of an accomplishment. and he has a little bit of an advantage from not racking up a lot of playoff appearances on good/not great teams, where you tend to collect at least a fraction of an expected championship but with no real chance of winning one. steph just either made the playoffs with a team that could go to the finals or just missed the playoffs.
throw together the longevity on top of the playoff resiliency, both team and individual and it seems like kobe should be above steph. what i'm less clear on, and what i've been dreading, is what to do with bird. i can't very well be the playoff resiliency guy and the "actual vs expected" guy and pimp for bird, who is about even with steph in resiliency and worse in "actual vs expected" and certainly doesn't have amazing longevity. 4 years of "meh" playoffs to start his career up to 1983 and then 1987 is basically his last dominant playoffs? it's hard to ignore him showing up as a rookie and the celtics just immediately becoming a +7 SRS, 60 win team and then staying there for about a decade. it's also hard to ignore 1991, well past his prime, where the celtics are 46-14 with him (63 win pace) and 10-12 without him (37 win pace), for a nice +26 WOWY at the age of 34. that's a lot of WOWY as a rookie and out to 12 years into his career. with 8 straight top 2 MVP finishes in there. but man, playoff underperformance after playoff underperformance.
i don't know if i've posted it here, but between the ages of 23-35, larry bird had 5 playoff series with a TS% below 46. all of them were at home and he lost 4 of them, and 4 of them were during his 1981-1988 prime and he lost 3 of them, with only the 1981 finals against a sub 0.500 team being the win.
playoff series below 46 TS% between the ages of 23-35
larry bird - 5
Jordan, Lebron, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, Magic, Wilt, Kobe, Durant, Curry, Harden, Kawhi, Dirk, Malone, Barkley combined - 5
and wilt's 1 series arguably shouldn't count given the era he was playing in.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
Willing to listen on Giannis v. DRob and v. Durant. We always are a little slow to give full value to current players because there is still an uncertainty factor. Once a guy has a solid 8 year prime, longevity isn't as big an issue with me anymore. Giannis is a year or two short of 8, his prime didn't start until 2017 or 2018 to me which is why I haven't got him in my sights yet, but if he had two more years like last year, he'd be competing with Curry and West for this spot for me.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
f4p wrote:so for all the people picking steph, i just want to go back to playoff resiliency again. i looked at the last project's Top 33 (just stopped at pippen due to time and less interest in the players below him) plus newer guys like jokic, giannis, embiid, and kawhi and then put in tatum and butler. i would've put in doncic but i only did ages 22-35 and doncic only had one season (though he would have led the list below).
all the data is from ages 22 to 35 and it looks at the BBRef stats PER, WS48, BPM, and TS% and compares each year to the regular season. the resilience at the end is just an average of the normalized increase/decrease for each value. +1 is a top 95% value and -1 is a bottom 6.5% value (couldn't use 5% because the lower values were so low that they were making the average season as slightly "resilient"). for playoff runs shorter than 10 games, the final value was multiplied by "Games/10" so a 5 game, 1 round playoffs would get weighed at 50%. the 2nd table is all 416 playoff runs for these guys. the 1st table is their career average (each playoff run weighed equally to essentially average your resiliency from year to year).
So, I didn't respond to this before but I think I should.
While I totally understand why you'd term this concept "resiliency", I would object.
When an opponent commits to putting great pressure on you, it's generally the right thing to do to pass. While that pass will sometimes count for an assist, in general, when the defense commits like this, they're going to knock any holistic production assessment for an individual even though he may well be playing more valuably than if he had insisted on keeping the ball and shooting.
Resistance to adaptation which can result in decreased efficacy isn't resilience so much as stubbornness.
It's not so problematic if you talk about it one stat at a time "scoring volume resiliency" "TS% resiliency", in part because it reaches for less, but when you put it all under one umbrella and then use the term you literally penalized guys for making the right call at times.
And of course those who know me probably no where I'm going with this: I think Impact Resilience is more the thing to focus on here, both because Impact is in the end what matters, and it has no preferences as to whether a guy helps his team by volume scoring, playmaking, defense, or harder to see and quantify measures.
Now as I say this, in the context of a project like this, I'm also less interested in Resilience than I often would be. How Great you are is first and foremost about what you actually do when it matters, not by how that compares to how do other times.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
f4p wrote:Spoiler:
I've noticed West grades out rather highly in your analyses / modeling that focus more on individual performance / PS translation. With underrated, good longevity (I'd say) - how high is he on your radar compared to the triad of Kobe, Curry, and Bird [unsure how you view Mikan] ?
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
Thanks for collecting the Box stats f4p!f4p wrote:so for all the people picking steph, i just want to go back to playoff resiliency again. i looked at the last project's Top 33 (just stopped at pippen due to time and less interest in the players below him) plus newer guys like jokic, giannis, embiid, and kawhi and then put in tatum and butler. i would've put in doncic but i only did ages 22-35 and doncic only had one season (though he would have led the list below).
all the data is from ages 22 to 35 and it looks at the BBRef stats PER, WS48, BPM, and TS% and compares each year to the regular season. the resilience at the end is just an average of the normalized increase/decrease for each value. +1 is a top 95% value and -1 is a bottom 6.5% value (couldn't use 5% because the lower values were so low that they were making the average season as slightly "resilient"). for playoff runs shorter than 10 games, the final value was multiplied by "Games/10" so a 5 game, 1 round playoffs would get weighed at 50%. the 2nd table is all 416 playoff runs for these guys. the 1st table is their career average (each playoff run weighed equally to essentially average your resiliency from year to year).Code: Select all
Rank Player Name Career Avg
1 Kawhi Leonard 0.4561
2 Hakeem Olajuwon 0.3315
3 George Mikan 0.3246
4 Lebron James 0.2747
5 Bill Russell 0.2548
6 Walt Frazier 0.2318
7 Jerry West 0.2142
8 Michael Jordan 0.2081
9 Tim Duncan 0.166
10 Magic Johnson 0.0968
11 Scottie Pippen 0.0963
12 Oscar Robertson 0.0865
13 Kobe Bryant 0.0856
14 Charles Barkley 0.0779
15 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 0.0554
16 Dirk Nowitzki 0.0534
17 Jayson Tatum 0.0247
18 Nikola Jokic 0.0205
19 Shaquille O'neal 0.0179
20 Moses Malone 0.0093
21 Dwyane Wade -0.0021
22 Chris Paul -0.0156
23 Julius Erving -0.0231
24 Jimmy Butler -0.0341
25 Wilt Chamberlain -0.0851
26 Kevin Garnett -0.1115
27 Larry Bird -0.1327
28 Kevin Durant -0.1435
29 Patrick Ewing -0.1446
30 David Robinson -0.1552
31 Steve Nash -0.1582
32 Stephen Curry -0.1613
33 Bob Pettit -0.1624
34 John Stockton -0.182
35 Giannis Antetokounmpo -0.1975
36 James Harden -0.1982
37 Karl Malone -0.2959
38 Joel Embiid -0.533Code: Select all
Rank Player Name Season Age PER TS% WS/48 BPM Resilience
1 George Mikan 1953-54 29 4.6 7.7 0.133 1.3491
2 Tim Duncan 2005-06 29 7.3 10.2 0.065 3.6 1.2829
3 Jerry West 1960-61 22 5.3 8.5 0.09 1.2777
4 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1969-70 22 6.9 5.6 0.099 1.2741
5 Hakeem Olajuwon 1996-97 34 4.9 7 0.075 5.7 1.2296
6 Hakeem Olajuwon 1986-87 24 4.7 10.5 0.062 4 1.1957
7 Dirk Nowitzki 2008-09 30 5.3 7.1 0.067 3.5 1.0901
8 Jimmy Butler 2021-22 32 6.3 1.2 0.063 5.5 1.0544
9 Lebron James 2008-09 24 5.7 2.7 0.081 4.3 1.0482
10 Kawhi Leonard 2016-17 25 3.9 6.2 0.05 4.8 1.0369
11 Lebron James 2019-20 35 4.7 7 0.065 2.3 0.9788
12 Hakeem Olajuwon 1987-88 25 15.6 8.6 0.203 10.1 0.9464
13 Kawhi Leonard 2020-21 29 4.6 5.7 0.039 3.4 0.9338
14 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1976-77 29 4.6 3.8 0.049 2.8 0.8582
15 Scottie Pippen 1989-90 24 2.4 4.1 0.062 3.6 0.8555
16 Julius Erving 1975-76 25 3.3 4.1 0.059 3 0.8493
17 Bill Russell 1964-65 30 1.4 6.8 0.052 0.8415
18 Bill Russell 1965-66 31 2.9 6.6 0.026 0.8314
19 Dirk Nowitzki 2009-10 31 5.4 6.5 0.097 6.5 0.8056
20 George Mikan 1948-49 24 4.3 0.8001
21 Charles Barkley 1993-94 30 5 1.2 0.023 3.6 0.7728
22 Lebron James 2017-18 33 3.6 -0.2 0.048 4 0.7544
23 Michael Jordan 1994-95 31 2.7 6.4 -0.017 3.8 0.7539
24 Lebron James 2016-17 32 3.1 3 0.054 2.2 0.7401
25 Stephen Curry 2016-17 28 2.5 3.5 0.043 2.8 0.7399
26 Bill Russell 1961-62 27 3.2 3 0.04 0.7373
27 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1973-74 26 3.9 1.9 0.047 2.4 0.7334
28 Larry Bird 1983-84 27 2.1 5.5 0.021 2.7 0.7257
29 Kobe Bryant 2009-10 31 2.8 2.2 0.03 2.9 0.6826
30 Dwyane Wade 2015-16 34 2 1.5 0.043 3 0.6639
31 Bill Russell 1962-63 28 2.3 4.4 0.012 0.65
32 Nikola Jokic 2018-19 23 3.3 0.7 0.037 2.5 0.6474
33 Julius Erving 1976-77 26 2 2.4 0.027 2.9 0.6462
34 Oscar Robertson 1972-73 34 3.8 6.1 0.088 0.6455
35 Larry Bird 1980-81 24 1.9 0.4 0.038 3.4 0.6353
36 Kobe Bryant 2008-09 30 2.4 0.3 0.032 3.2 0.6259
37 Tim Duncan 1998-99 22 1.9 3.2 0.03 2.1 0.6253
38 Julius Erving 1978-79 28 2 3 0.038 2.8 0.6194
39 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1983-84 36 2.7 -1.6 0.043 3.3 0.6106
40 Kawhi Leonard 2018-19 27 2.1 1.3 0.025 2.9 0.6088
41 Chris Paul 2010-11 25 5.2 9.2 0.01 3.4 0.6012
42 Michael Jordan 1997-98 34 2.9 1.2 0.027 2.1 0.5951
43 Walt Frazier 1973-74 28 2.6 2.9 0.021 1.6 0.5912
44 Bill Russell 1960-61 26 3.9 0.3 0.02 0.5896
45 Jerry West 1968-69 30 2.9 -1.5 0.058 0.5818
46 James Harden 2020-21 31 -0.6 5.5 0.055 1.9 0.5791
47 Tim Duncan 2002-03 26 1.5 1.3 0.031 2.6 0.5787
48 Kevin Durant 2018-19 30 2.6 3 0.002 2.1 0.5772
49 Stephen Curry 2021-22 33 3 0.5 0.03 1.9 0.5712
50 Bill Russell 1959-60 25 1.9 0.8 0.038 0.5561
51 Jerry West 1967-68 29 1.9 0.6 0.037 0.5438
52 Hakeem Olajuwon 1985-86 23 1.4 0.6 0.045 1.9 0.5427
53 Lebron James 2015-16 31 2.5 -0.3 0.032 2 0.534
54 Kobe Bryant 2000-01 22 0.5 0.3 0.064 1.7 0.5294
55 Magic Johnson 1985-86 26 1.6 -1.1 0.041 2.6 0.529
56 Dirk Nowitzki 2003-04 25 5 0 0.097 5.7 0.5288
57 Tim Duncan 2001-02 25 4.8 -2.6 -0.01 3.8 0.5083
58 Scottie Pippen 1988-89 23 -0.5 2 0.024 2.7 0.502
59 Bob Pettit 1962-63 30 1.1 1.8 0.022 0.4983
60 Charles Barkley 1985-86 22 1.4 1.2 0.013 2.1 0.4927
61 Kobe Bryant 2011-12 33 2.5 -0.2 0.011 2.1 0.4894
62 Jerry West 1962-63 24 1.2 2.5 0.008 0.487
63 Moses Malone 1982-83 27 0.6 0.9 0.012 2.7 0.4829
64 Luka Doncic 2021-22 22 3.5 0.6 0.005 1.1 0.4812
65 Walt Frazier 1974-75 29 7.4 13.5 0.09 5.3 0.471
66 Lebron James 2013-14 29 1.7 1.9 0.005 1.5 0.4704
67 Jimmy Butler 2018-19 29 0.9 -0.7 0.022 2.5 0.456
68 Walt Frazier 1970-71 25 0.7 1.6 0.019 0.4555
69 Shaquille O'neal 1995-96 23 1 0.5 -0.015 3.1 0.4429
70 Shaquille O'neal 1997-98 25 2.2 1.7 -0.024 2 0.4427
71 Hakeem Olajuwon 1993-94 31 2.4 0.3 -0.002 1.7 0.4426
72 Chris Paul 2015-16 30 7 0 0.069 6.1 0.4396
73 Dwyane Wade 2009-10 28 1.4 8.8 0.005 4.3 0.4325
74 Kevin Durant 2011-12 23 1.3 2.2 0.001 1.1 0.427
75 Michael Jordan 1990-91 27 0.4 -0.5 0.012 2.6 0.4211
76 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1979-80 32 2.6 -2.8 0.026 1.7 0.4206
77 Tim Duncan 2013-14 37 -0.2 3.3 0.04 -0.2 0.4156
78 Kawhi Leonard 2015-16 24 2.6 -1.9 -0.006 2.4 0.4123
79 Magic Johnson 1981-82 22 -0.4 2.4 0.024 1 0.4117
80 John Stockton 1986-87 24 -0.8 14.5 0.026 0.8 0.3948
81 Kevin Durant 2016-17 28 -0.1 3.2 0.002 1 0.3947
82 Larry Bird 1985-86 29 -1.7 3.5 0.019 1.2 0.3907
83 Scottie Pippen 1990-91 25 1.4 0.3 0.018 0.7 0.3866
84 Moses Malone 1988-89 33 2.9 2.6 0.03 3.8 0.3788
85 Wilt Chamberlain 1964-65 28 -1.5 3.9 0.003 0.373
86 Tim Duncan 2011-12 35 0.4 -0.2 0.01 1.7 0.3687
87 Dwyane Wade 2004-05 23 1.2 0 0.003 1.3 0.3672
88 Walt Frazier 1972-73 27 0 2.5 -0.007 0.3647
89 Chris Paul 2007-08 22 2.4 -1.1 0.005 0.9 0.3632
90 Kevin Durant 2010-11 22 0.5 -0.7 0.028 1 0.3585
91 Michael Jordan 1989-90 26 0.5 -1.4 -0.001 2.5 0.3555
92 Jerry West 1961-62 23 -0.7 2 0.008 0.353
93 Scottie Pippen 1999-00 34 1.1 -1.1 0.003 1.7 0.3515
94 Dwyane Wade 2005-06 24 -0.7 1.6 0.001 1.6 0.3505
95 Charles Barkley 1998-99 35 5.9 3.3 0.023 3.4 0.3479
96 Tim Duncan 2000-01 24 1.6 -0.5 -0.027 2.2 0.3478
97 Shaquille O'neal 1996-97 24 1.9 -0.4 0.018 0.7 0.3468
98 Kevin Garnett 2000-01 24 1 3.8 0.079 4.1 0.3437
99 Jimmy Butler 2019-20 30 0.2 3.1 -0.012 0.5 0.3367
100 Karl Malone 1993-94 30 1.7 -1.9 0.016 0.9 0.3341
101 Steve Nash 2009-10 35 0.8 1.9 -0.003 0.3 0.3337
102 Magic Johnson 1987-88 28 -0.2 1.9 -0.001 0.9 0.3329
103 Walt Frazier 1971-72 26 -0.1 1 0.004 0.3301
104 Dwyane Wade 2010-11 29 0.7 -1.1 -0.002 1.8 0.3273
105 Oscar Robertson 1970-71 32 1.5 -3 0.027 0.3258
106 Kevin Durant 2020-21 32 0.5 -3.6 0.008 2.8 0.3245
107 Kawhi Leonard 2019-20 28 0.9 0.4 0.002 0.5 0.3138
108 Dirk Nowitzki 2010-11 32 1.8 -0.3 -0.003 0.4 0.3109
109 Oscar Robertson 1973-74 35 0.9 0.1 -0.007 0.9 0.306
110 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1978-79 31 1 2.4 0.003 0.4 0.3049
111 Chris Paul 2014-15 29 -0.3 3.1 -0.022 0.7 0.3015
112 Chris Paul 2012-13 27 2.8 3.9 -0.02 0.9 0.2897
113 Kobe Bryant 2007-08 29 0.8 0.1 -0.03 1.6 0.2866
114 Charles Barkley 1994-95 31 1.4 0.8 -0.008 -0.1 0.2852
115 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2017-18 23 -0.7 2.2 0.032 0.9 0.2843
116 Wilt Chamberlain 1963-64 27 -0.3 0.6 -0.002 0.2798
117 Karl Malone 1991-92 28 -0.4 1.9 -0.017 0.8 0.2763
118 Shaquille O'neal 2003-04 31 0.4 -1.3 0.01 0.7 0.2685
119 Shaquille O'neal 2002-03 30 1.1 -3.2 -0.01 1.9 0.2606
120 John Stockton 1990-91 28 -1.6 4 -0.009 0.4 0.2597
121 Jerry West 1965-66 27 0.1 0.8 -0.019 0.2537
122 Patrick Ewing 1992-93 30 0.8 -1.1 -0.015 1.1 0.2536
123 Moses Malone 1979-80 24 0.8 1.7 -0.024 1.5 0.2443
124 Kawhi Leonard 2022-23 31 6 4.7 0.033 7.7 0.244
125 Magic Johnson 1986-87 27 -0.8 0.5 0.002 0.5 0.2421
126 Hakeem Olajuwon 1992-93 30 -0.6 -0.9 -0.013 1.6 0.2354
127 Michael Jordan 1992-93 29 0.4 -1.1 0 0.4 0.2302
128 David Robinson 1990-91 25 -1.3 14.5 -0.03 0 0.2288
129 Dirk Nowitzki 2005-06 27 -1.3 0.7 -0.012 1.1 0.2286
130 Jayson Tatum 2020-21 22 2.8 0.1 -0.023 2.6 0.2283
131 Dwyane Wade 2003-04 22 0.1 -0.3 0.001 0.1 0.2271
132 Magic Johnson 1983-84 24 0.2 -2.7 0.007 1 0.2243
133 Dirk Nowitzki 2007-08 29 1.7 0.3 -0.027 3 0.2149
134 Bob Pettit 1959-60 27 -0.4 0.5 -0.019 0.2109
135 George Mikan 1951-52 27 1 1.8 -0.062 0.2029
136 Tim Duncan 2008-09 32 2.9 0.5 -0.02 1.3 0.1997
137 Wilt Chamberlain 1959-60 23 -1.1 0.5 -0.004 0.1993
138 Chris Paul 2016-17 31 1.6 -2.2 -0.018 1.7 0.1979
139 Michael Jordan 1985-86 22 2.6 5.1 0.001 2.2 0.1953
140 John Stockton 1985-86 23 0.2 7.8 0.008 -0.6 0.19
141 Jimmy Butler 2014-15 25 -0.5 -2.1 -0.011 1.2 0.1796
142 Steve Nash 2004-05 30 1.4 -0.2 -0.039 0 0.1781
143 Kawhi Leonard 2013-14 22 -0.7 0.4 -0.002 -0.4 0.1756
144 Kevin Garnett 1998-99 22 1.7 -0.5 -0.011 2.8 0.1727
145 Nikola Jokic 2019-20 24 -0.1 0.9 -0.03 0 0.1718
146 Charles Barkley 1995-96 32 2.7 -2.3 0.006 2.3 0.1712
147 James Harden 2019-20 30 -1.6 1 -0.001 -0.2 0.1712
148 David Robinson 2000-01 35 0.8 -2.1 -0.039 1.3 0.1709
149 Julius Erving 1973-74 23 -1.7 0.8 0.014 -0.7 0.1671
150 John Stockton 1996-97 34 0.6 -2.9 -0.025 1.2 0.1653
151 Tim Duncan 2006-07 30 1.3 -2.3 -0.016 -0.1 0.1568
152 Walt Frazier 1968-69 23 1.1 -3.5 -0.009 0.156
153 John Stockton 1988-89 26 3 -2.3 -0.006 3.7 0.1498
154 Hakeem Olajuwon 1990-91 28 -1.1 8 0.001 0.8 0.1486
155 Oscar Robertson 1961-62 23 -0.6 3.2 -0.004 0.1483
156 George Mikan 1949-50 25 -0.6 0.147
157 Kevin Durant 2017-18 29 -0.9 -3.4 0.022 0.3 0.1467
158 Hakeem Olajuwon 1994-95 32 0.7 -0.3 -0.038 0 0.1465
159 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1982-83 35 -0.8 -1.1 -0.033 1.1 0.1364
160 Jerry West 1963-64 25 0.9 0.2 -0.022 0.1319
161 Dirk Nowitzki 2001-02 23 0.7 -2.2 -0.029 0.9 0.1309
162 David Robinson 1998-99 33 -1.6 -0.1 -0.018 0.4 0.1287
163 Joel Embiid 2019-20 25 0.8 1 -0.027 1.5 0.1272
164 Julius Erving 1977-78 27 -0.5 -2.2 -0.008 0.2 0.1204
165 Dirk Nowitzki 2000-01 22 -0.5 -2.8 -0.018 0.9 0.1191
166 Patrick Ewing 1996-97 34 -0.3 -0.1 -0.035 0.1 0.1108
167 Chris Paul 2020-21 35 -0.7 -1.5 -0.023 0.4 0.1089
168 Bill Russell 1967-68 33 -0.3 -0.3 -0.042 0.102
169 Oscar Robertson 1962-63 24 0.1 -1.4 -0.035 0.1008
170 Shaquille O'neal 2007-08 35 1.8 -10.3 0.024 2.8 0.1
171 Kevin Garnett 2011-12 35 0.1 -0.9 -0.029 -0.4 0.0978
172 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1984-85 37 -0.8 -2.6 -0.01 0.3 0.095
173 Scottie Pippen 1991-92 26 -1.4 -1.1 -0.024 0.5 0.095
174 George Mikan 1955-56 31 0.4 -1.3 0.016 0.0896
175 Shaquille O'neal 2000-01 28 -1.5 -1 0.015 -1.2 0.0867
176 Michael Jordan 1988-89 25 -1.2 -1.2 -0.022 0.2 0.0866
177 Jimmy Butler 2012-13 23 -0.8 0.1 -0.053 0.5 0.0866
178 Hakeem Olajuwon 1988-89 26 -1.1 -0.3 -0.015 1.4 0.0862
179 Jerry West 1972-73 34 -0.5 -2.1 -0.022 0.0792
180 Lebron James 2006-07 22 -0.6 -3.6 -0.006 0 0.0618
181 Charles Barkley 1988-89 25 -2.7 3.8 -0.037 0.9 0.0578
182 Patrick Ewing 1995-96 33 -2.8 0.6 -0.039 0.8 0.0561
183 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2019-20 25 -0.6 -0.3 -0.041 -0.3 0.056
184 Julius Erving 1972-73 22 -2.8 2.4 -0.034 0.0512
185 Dirk Nowitzki 2011-12 33 0.8 -0.4 -0.036 -0.5 0.0484
186 Lebron James 2011-12 27 -0.4 -2.9 -0.014 -0.4 0.0479
187 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2020-21 26 -1.6 -3.4 -0.02 0.9 0.0453
188 Jayson Tatum 2022-23 24 -1.1 -2.2 -0.017 -0.2 0.0452
189 Scottie Pippen 1997-98 32 -0.9 -3.3 -0.027 0.6 0.0424
190 Oscar Robertson 1966-67 28 -2.6 3.4 -0.051 0.04
191 Michael Jordan 1991-92 28 -0.5 -0.8 -0.058 0.2 0.0378
192 Michael Jordan 1995-96 32 -2.7 -1.8 -0.011 0.2 0.0288
193 Wilt Chamberlain 1960-61 24 -1.1 -2.7 -0.001 0.0269
194 John Stockton 1987-88 25 -0.7 -2.7 -0.037 0.3 0.0263
195 Magic Johnson 1984-85 25 -0.9 -3.8 -0.01 -0.1 0.0252
196 Moses Malone 1978-79 23 5 -10.3 -0.034 1.7 0.0243
197 Karl Malone 1999-00 36 -1.3 0.2 -0.055 -0.2 0.0181
198 David Robinson 1999-00 34 1 -10.5 -0.018 2.6 0.0147
199 Steve Nash 1997-98 23 0.9 -4.5 -0.056 1 0.0129
200 Patrick Ewing 1994-95 32 -3 0.4 -0.006 -1.2 0.0128
201 David Robinson 1989-90 24 -1.9 -1.6 -0.022 -0.3 0.0106
202 Bob Pettit 1956-57 24 -3.2 1 -0.038 0.0028
203 Kevin Garnett 2001-02 25 1.7 -2.2 -0.073 -0.5 0.0015
204 Hakeem Olajuwon 1984-85 22 -1.4 -7.4 -0.008 1.7 0.0014
205 Jerry West 1966-67 28 -4.6 0 -0.2 0
206 Patrick Ewing 1987-88 25 -1.2 -3.2 -0.034 0.2 -0.0044
207 Shaquille O'neal 2001-02 29 -1.4 -2.1 -0.026 -0.5 -0.007
208 Stephen Curry 2012-13 24 -0.8 -3.1 -0.019 -0.7 -0.0085
209 Patrick Ewing 1989-90 27 -0.4 -2 -0.05 -0.3 -0.0088
210 Michael Jordan 1996-97 33 -0.7 -4.3 -0.048 1 -0.0109
211 Charles Barkley 1990-91 27 -2.1 -0.5 -0.041 -0.4 -0.0136
212 Michael Jordan 1986-87 23 -1.7 -3.3 -0.082 1.9 -0.0157
213 Scottie Pippen 1998-99 33 1.9 -8.2 -0.035 0.2 -0.0173
214 Wilt Chamberlain 1971-72 35 -0.7 -4.8 -0.014 -0.025
215 John Stockton 1992-93 30 -2.7 -2.4 -0.032 0.1 -0.0259
216 Kevin Garnett 2009-10 33 -1.8 -3.9 -0.023 0.3 -0.0261
217 Jimmy Butler 2013-14 24 -2.1 -1.5 -0.035 -0.8 -0.0301
218 Shaquille O'neal 1994-95 22 -2.5 0.7 -0.05 -0.6 -0.0307
219 Moses Malone 1987-88 32 -2.9 -1.4 -0.038 -0.3 -0.0341
220 Moses Malone 1986-87 31 -4.5 0.6 -0.073 0.4 -0.0355
221 Chris Paul 2019-20 34 -2.4 -0.6 -0.052 -0.3 -0.039
222 Jerry West 1964-65 26 1.7 -3.8 -0.072 -0.0392
223 Oscar Robertson 1963-64 25 -2.9 -0.8 -0.033 -0.0423
224 Lebron James 2009-10 25 -2.5 0.3 -0.057 -0.3 -0.043
225 Larry Bird 1989-90 33 -1.2 -0.7 -0.051 -1.6 -0.043
226 Nikola Jokic 2022-23 27 -0.3 -7 -0.003 -0.2 -0.0432
227 Scottie Pippen 1995-96 30 -1.6 -7.8 -0.014 1.5 -0.0476
228 Chris Paul 2013-14 28 -2.3 0.3 -0.075 0.2 -0.049
229 James Harden 2014-15 25 -1.9 1.5 -0.063 -1.2 -0.0493
230 Stephen Curry 2018-19 30 -1.8 -2.1 -0.014 -1.4 -0.0509
231 Moses Malone 1981-82 26 -2.5 -8.7 -0.035 1.4 -0.0534
232 Kobe Bryant 2006-07 28 -2 -1.9 -0.078 0.2 -0.0584
233 Julius Erving 1981-82 31 -3.4 -1.2 -0.044 0.3 -0.061
234 Bill Russell 1968-69 34 0.1 -1.9 -0.077 -0.0662
235 Chris Paul 2018-19 33 -2.1 -0.3 -0.04 -1.4 -0.0713
236 John Stockton 1997-98 35 -1.8 -5.9 -0.027 0.8 -0.0713
237 Julius Erving 1984-85 34 -3.1 -2.9 -0.027 0.1 -0.0732
238 Walt Frazier 1967-68 22 -1.8 -3.2 -0.062 -0.0736
239 Kawhi Leonard 2014-15 23 -2.1 0.4 -0.061 -1.5 -0.0761
240 Wilt Chamberlain 1961-62 25 -2.4 -2.8 -0.026 -0.0776
241 Shaquille O'neal 1999-00 27 -0.1 -2.2 -0.059 -1.2 -0.0827
242 Larry Bird 1979-80 23 -2.2 -2.7 -0.046 -0.2 -0.0855
243 Karl Malone 1988-89 25 -2.3 -1.8 -0.093 -1.8 -0.0878
244 Oscar Robertson 1965-66 27 -0.9 -3.3 -0.074 -0.0885
245 Julius Erving 1979-80 29 -2.9 -1.5 -0.035 -0.7 -0.0892
246 Bill Russell 1958-59 24 -1.9 -3.9 -0.024 -0.0901
247 James Harden 2015-16 26 -3.5 -4.3 -0.098 2.2 -0.0938
248 Charles Barkley 1992-93 29 -1 -4.4 -0.027 -0.9 -0.094
249 Steve Nash 2001-02 27 -2 -1.7 -0.057 -0.8 -0.0955
250 David Robinson 1992-93 27 -2.6 -4 -0.025 -0.3 -0.108
251 Kevin Garnett 2002-03 26 -1.4 -1.4 -0.084 -1.4 -0.1145
252 Dwyane Wade 2016-17 35 -3 -3.6 -0.027 -1.5 -0.1163
253 Karl Malone 1994-95 31 -0.5 -4 -0.096 -0.9 -0.1185
254 Lebron James 2014-15 30 -0.6 -9 -0.026 0.8 -0.119
255 Scottie Pippen 1993-94 28 -0.4 -2.3 -0.045 -2.1 -0.1203
256 Bill Russell 1963-64 29 -0.4 -5.5 -0.039 -0.1246
257 Charles Barkley 1997-98 34 -5.4 -0.6 -0.063 -1.8 -0.1248
258 Nikola Jokic 2021-22 26 0.3 -1.8 -0.094 -3 -0.1283
259 Bill Russell 1957-58 23 -1.2 -4.5 -0.044 -0.1301
260 Bill Russell 1956-57 22 -2.2 -5.2 -0.014 -0.1311
261 Moses Malone 1983-84 28 -4.8 -1.5 -0.065 -0.9 -0.1317
262 James Harden 2011-12 22 -0.2 -5.5 -0.046 -0.8 -0.1381
263 George Mikan 1950-51 26 -3.2 -0.1397
264 Hakeem Olajuwon 1997-98 35 -2 -8.2 -0.082 1.1 -0.1399
265 Kevin Garnett 1999-00 23 -3.1 -10.4 -0.07 1.1 -0.1483
266 Shaquille O'neal 2006-07 34 -1.8 -3.8 -0.111 -1.7 -0.1509
267 Scottie Pippen 1992-93 27 -2.3 -0.6 -0.049 -2 -0.1516
268 Joel Embiid 2020-21 26 -4.1 -0.5 -0.069 0 -0.1523
269 Moses Malone 1980-81 25 -2.7 -4.8 -0.028 -0.4 -0.1532
270 Kobe Bryant 2001-02 23 -2.7 -3.3 -0.051 -0.3 -0.1563
271 Steve Nash 2005-06 31 -2 -1.7 -0.059 -1.3 -0.1563
272 Magic Johnson 1989-90 30 -1.6 -2.4 -0.048 -2.1 -0.166
273 Patrick Ewing 1991-92 29 -2.9 -6.1 -0.031 0.3 -0.1686
274 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1980-81 33 -3.1 -9.9 -0.071 -2.2 -0.1699
275 Scottie Pippen 1994-95 29 -3.7 -1 -0.038 -1.6 -0.1729
276 Wilt Chamberlain 1965-66 29 -2.3 -4.7 -0.082 -0.1746
277 George Mikan 1952-53 28 -2.3 -2.6 -0.059 -0.1766
278 Bob Pettit 1958-59 26 -5.3 -1.5 -0.058 -0.1805
279 Michael Jordan 1987-88 24 -3.3 -0.5 -0.074 -0.8 -0.1808
280 Dirk Nowitzki 2002-03 24 -2.4 1.2 -0.077 -2.2 -0.1811
281 Joel Embiid 2018-19 24 -4.3 -3.4 -0.045 0.2 -0.183
282 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2016-17 22 -4.2 -3.6 -0.072 -0.7 -0.1874
283 Tim Duncan 2004-05 28 -2.1 -1.4 -0.054 -2.1 -0.1887
284 Wilt Chamberlain 1968-69 32 -3.6 -4.6 -0.015 -0.1903
285 James Harden 2021-22 32 -4.1 0.1 -0.04 -2.1 -0.1908
286 David Robinson 1995-96 30 -0.3 -2 -0.076 -2.2 -0.1924
287 Magic Johnson 1982-83 23 -2.4 -4.8 -0.051 -0.3 -0.1931
288 Chris Paul 2017-18 32 -1.6 -3.9 -0.072 -0.5 -0.1947
289 Jerry West 1969-70 31 -3.5 -2.2 -0.05 -0.1984
290 Scottie Pippen 1996-97 31 -3.2 -2.8 -0.058 -0.6 -0.1989
291 Jayson Tatum 2021-22 23 -4.2 -1.6 -0.059 -0.5 -0.1993
292 James Harden 2012-13 23 -2.1 -5.2 -0.106 -0.3 -0.2012
293 Hakeem Olajuwon 1989-90 27 -3.6 -6.3 -0.092 -1.9 -0.2015
294 Tim Duncan 2003-04 27 -3 2.6 -0.066 -3.3 -0.2024
295 Magic Johnson 1990-91 31 -2.4 -2.5 -0.058 -1.4 -0.2044
296 Dwyane Wade 2008-09 27 -4.1 -0.9 -0.037 -3.3 -0.2049
297 Larry Bird 1991-92 35 -4.6 -3.3 -0.09 -3.3 -0.2127
298 Karl Malone 1987-88 24 -2.3 -3.1 -0.058 -1.4 -0.22
299 Lebron James 2010-11 26 -3.6 -3.1 -0.046 -1 -0.221
300 Charles Barkley 1986-87 23 -4.9 -1.1 -0.06 -4.1 -0.2225
301 Kobe Bryant 2003-04 25 -2.7 -4.5 -0.065 -0.3 -0.2325
302 Magic Johnson 1988-89 29 -3.5 -1.6 -0.067 -1.2 -0.2336
303 Bob Pettit 1960-61 28 -2.9 -1.7 -0.078 -0.2374
304 Oscar Robertson 1964-65 26 -5.9 -3.3 -0.112 -0.2409
305 Tim Duncan 2012-13 36 -3.1 -3.1 -0.03 -2.4 -0.2465
306 Moses Malone 1984-85 29 -4.5 -6.8 -0.033 0.6 -0.2487
307 Stephen Curry 2014-15 26 -3.5 -3.1 -0.06 -1.1 -0.2591
308 Karl Malone 1986-87 23 -4.6 -5.4 -0.064 -3.1 -0.2609
309 Julius Erving 1985-86 35 -3.3 -2.9 -0.046 -2 -0.2646
310 Wilt Chamberlain 1967-68 31 -2 -4.6 -0.064 -0.265
311 Scottie Pippen 2000-01 35 -5.5 -5.2 -0.178 -4 -0.272
312 Patrick Ewing 1993-94 31 -2.3 -5.6 -0.061 -0.8 -0.2729
313 Charles Barkley 1996-97 33 -2.5 -2.4 -0.06 -2.4 -0.2742
314 Larry Bird 1982-83 26 -3.8 -8.3 -0.091 -0.1 -0.2773
315 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1981-82 34 -3.3 -5.8 -0.048 -0.6 -0.2774
316 Bob Pettit 1964-65 32 -7.3 -4.8 -0.096 -0.2785
317 Kobe Bryant 2010-11 32 -3.3 -1.2 -0.079 -1.8 -0.2806
318 Bob Pettit 1957-58 25 -3.7 -2 -0.075 -0.2875
319 Shaquille O'neal 1998-99 26 -1.8 -6.9 -0.079 -1.1 -0.2878
320 Shaquille O'neal 2005-06 33 -4.5 -1.5 -0.061 -1.7 -0.2907
321 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1977-78 30 -7.3 -6.3 -0.127 -5.6 -0.2978
322 Tim Duncan 2007-08 31 -2.5 -5.8 -0.078 -0.3 -0.3006
323 Kevin Garnett 2007-08 31 -2.3 -4.6 -0.066 -1.6 -0.3034
324 Wilt Chamberlain 1966-67 30 -1.2 -9.1 -0.032 -0.3075
325 Steve Nash 2007-08 33 -4.3 -10.3 -0.078 -1.8 -0.3127
326 Dwyane Wade 2013-14 32 -3.5 -2.8 -0.063 -2 -0.3141
327 Steve Nash 2006-07 32 -1.9 -7.7 -0.06 -0.7 -0.3163
328 Karl Malone 1990-91 27 -3.4 -6 -0.071 -0.7 -0.3189
329 Hakeem Olajuwon 1995-96 33 -5.5 -1.4 -0.087 -1.8 -0.324
330 Jimmy Butler 2017-18 28 -6.8 -3.3 -0.1 -3.2 -0.3242
331 Lebron James 2007-08 23 -4.8 -4.3 -0.055 -0.8 -0.3245
332 Oscar Robertson 1971-72 33 -2.5 -7.8 -0.033 -0.3298
333 Kevin Durant 2012-13 24 -2.3 -7.3 -0.081 0 -0.3304
334 Joel Embiid 2017-18 23 -4.8 -5.4 -0.059 -1.5 -0.3328
335 Stephen Curry 2013-14 25 -5.3 -1.1 -0.094 -3 -0.3364
336 Karl Malone 1997-98 34 -3.7 -6.3 -0.075 -0.2 -0.3561
337 Lebron James 2012-13 28 -3.5 -5.5 -0.062 -1.3 -0.357
338 Patrick Ewing 1988-89 26 -3 -7.1 -0.043 -2.3 -0.3624
339 Karl Malone 1995-96 32 -2.4 -7.7 -0.062 -1 -0.3626
340 Julius Erving 1983-84 33 -7.7 -3.1 -0.109 -3.8 -0.3714
341 Moses Malone 1990-91 35 -4.1 -16.9 -0.052 -1.4 -0.3719
342 Wilt Chamberlain 1969-70 33 -4.5 -2.6 -0.081 -0.3819
343 Steve Nash 2003-04 29 -5 -13 -0.07 -2.5 -0.385
344 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1970-71 23 -3.7 -5.8 -0.055 -0.3874
345 Stephen Curry 2022-23 34 -3.7 -6.8 -0.061 -1 -0.3875
346 Dwyane Wade 2011-12 30 -4.3 -3.3 -0.062 -2.6 -0.4016
347 Steve Nash 2002-03 28 -4.5 -1.1 -0.093 -2.4 -0.4045
348 James Harden 2016-17 27 -4.4 -3 -0.088 -1.7 -0.406
349 Tim Duncan 2010-11 34 -6.4 -3.7 -0.118 -3.3 -0.4182
350 James Harden 2022-23 33 -3.1 -6.9 -0.077 -1.3 -0.4247
351 James Harden 2013-14 24 -5.2 -9.9 -0.11 -1.4 -0.4254
352 Larry Bird 1990-91 34 -3.9 -4 -0.062 -3 -0.4327
353 Steve Nash 2000-01 26 -4.5 -5 -0.087 -1.1 -0.4364
354 Kobe Bryant 2002-03 24 -4 -1.9 -0.079 -3.4 -0.4365
355 John Stockton 1991-92 29 -3.4 -4.2 -0.093 -2.1 -0.4402
356 Walt Frazier 1969-70 24 -4.6 -4.4 -0.073 -0.4402
357 Karl Malone 2000-01 37 -5 -8.8 -0.169 -2.7 -0.4494
358 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2022-23 28 -10.2 -8 -0.23 -6.5 -0.4503
359 Bill Russell 1966-67 32 -3.3 -6.4 -0.088 -0.4538
360 Charles Barkley 1989-90 26 -2.1 -7.2 -0.093 -1.8 -0.4637
361 Patrick Ewing 1990-91 28 -13.4 -8.9 -0.204 -5.6 -0.4643
362 Larry Bird 1981-82 25 -4.7 -8.3 -0.051 -1.2 -0.4685
363 Jimmy Butler 2016-17 27 -5.7 -5.8 -0.12 -4 -0.4714
364 Wilt Chamberlain 1970-71 34 -1.2 -7.9 -0.097 -0.4782
365 Bob Pettit 1955-56 23 -5.9 -2 -0.128 -0.4798
366 John Stockton 1994-95 32 -3.8 -10.5 -0.146 -4.7 -0.485
367 John Stockton 1993-94 31 -2.6 -8.5 -0.07 -2.3 -0.5014
368 Julius Erving 1974-75 24 -6.1 -5.8 -0.154 -5.9 -0.506
369 Kobe Bryant 2005-06 27 -8.1 2.8 -0.137 -5.2 -0.5077
370 Karl Malone 1989-90 26 -7.5 -12.1 -0.138 -2.9 -0.5258
371 John Stockton 1999-00 37 -4 -4.3 -0.09 -3.1 -0.5258
372 David Robinson 1997-98 32 -3.7 -8.5 -0.086 -2.2 -0.5265
373 Larry Bird 1986-87 30 -4.6 -3.5 -0.091 -3.1 -0.5283
374 James Harden 2018-19 29 -5.4 -4.9 -0.065 -2.9 -0.5303
375 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2018-19 24 -4.4 -7.4 -0.073 -2 -0.5329
376 Kevin Garnett 2010-11 34 -3.3 -9.6 -0.081 -2.3 -0.5377
377 Nikola Jokic 2020-21 25 -1.7 -5.6 -0.12 -3.1 -0.5451
378 David Robinson 1993-94 28 -8.7 -10.6 -0.191 -5.7 -0.5479
379 Dwyane Wade 2012-13 31 -5.3 -7.3 -0.084 -1.3 -0.5533
380 John Stockton 1989-90 27 -5.9 -12.5 -0.132 -5.4 -0.5689
381 Jimmy Butler 2022-23 33 -3.6 -8.2 -0.088 -2.2 -0.5758
382 Stephen Curry 2017-18 29 -5.9 -8.5 -0.085 -0.6 -0.5779
383 Larry Bird 1984-85 28 -5.6 -4.9 -0.083 -2.8 -0.5793
384 Julius Erving 1980-81 30 -4.5 -4.5 -0.114 -2.7 -0.5912
385 Giannis Antetokounmpo 2021-22 27 -5.3 -8.1 -0.103 -0.8 -0.5973
386 Kevin Garnett 2003-04 27 -4.4 -3.4 -0.109 -3.7 -0.6008
387 Kevin Durant 2022-23 34 -4.8 -7.8 -0.08 -2.5 -0.6138
388 Karl Malone 1992-93 29 -9.6 -8.4 -0.153 -6.1 -0.6316
389 Tim Duncan 2009-10 33 -5 -3.3 -0.124 -3.3 -0.6373
390 John Stockton 1998-99 36 -3.8 -8.4 -0.101 -2.5 -0.6439
391 John Stockton 1995-96 33 -4.9 -9.8 -0.058 -2.9 -0.6534
392 Dirk Nowitzki 2006-07 28 -6.7 -9.6 -0.15 -5.2 -0.6661
393 James Harden 2017-18 28 -4.9 -7.1 -0.126 -1.8 -0.6693
394 Karl Malone 1998-99 35 -4.4 -8.5 -0.117 -2.2 -0.696
395 Bob Pettit 1963-64 31 -5.3 -5.2 -0.129 -0.71
396 Larry Bird 1987-88 31 -7.6 -7 -0.092 -2.1 -0.7164
397 David Robinson 1994-95 29 -6.5 -6.6 -0.097 -3.1 -0.731
398 Patrick Ewing 1997-98 35 -12.6 -14.5 -0.201 -8.2 -0.7426
399 Kevin Durant 2021-22 33 -12 -10.8 -0.224 -10.1 -0.7548
400 Dwyane Wade 2006-07 25 -13.7 -10.4 -0.279 -8.8 -0.8033
401 Julius Erving 1982-83 32 -7.1 -7 -0.104 -3.6 -0.8207
402 Shaquille O'neal 2004-05 32 -8.9 -2.9 -0.122 -4.2 -0.8482
403 Dirk Nowitzki 2004-05 26 -6 -7.3 -0.144 -3.6 -0.8855
404 Jerry West 1971-72 33 -4.3 -10.1 -0.138 -0.8998
405 Kevin Durant 2013-14 25 -7.2 -6.5 -0.15 -3.8 -0.94
406 Karl Malone 1996-97 33 -6.7 -9.9 -0.141 -4.3 -1.0398
407 Dirk Nowitzki 2013-14 35 -9.7 -12.3 -0.188 -6.3 -1.0506
408 Jimmy Butler 2020-21 31 -16.8 -21.3 -0.319 -9.1 -1.0524
409 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1972-73 25 -10.8 -13.3 -0.242 -1.0699
410 Chris Paul 2011-12 26 -7 -5.6 -0.175 -5.5 -1.0739
411 Chris Paul 2008-09 23 -13.9 -9.4 -0.327 -9.5 -1.0762
412 Stephen Curry 2015-16 27 -9.2 -6.6 -0.166 -4.9 -1.143
413 Kevin Durant 2015-16 27 -7.9 -9.2 -0.14 -5.9 -1.1686
414 Joel Embiid 2021-22 27 -12.1 -2.6 -0.135 -9.1 -1.3246
415 Joel Embiid 2022-23 28 -11.1 -9.4 -0.169 -7.3 -1.3324
416 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1971-72 24 -7.5 -14.1 -0.193 -1.4556
ignoring the gargantuan outlier that is joel embiid, and also karl malone, steph finds himself lumped in way down at the bottom. i feel like he's way more james harden than people want to admit. and to the thrust of some of my earlier points, here is how it looks at his 2015-2019 peak in the 4 seasons where there was actually some threat (warriors down in series/playing competitive series):Code: Select all
2014-15 -0.2591
2015-16 -1.143
2017-18 -0.5779
2018-19 -0.0509
that's an average of -0.508. in other words, when it wasn't the easiest, most pressure-free playoff run ever, at his peak he basically showed the same anti-resilience as massive anti-resilience outlier joel embiid. and he somehow got 2 titles and a another finals where game 7 was tied with a minute to go. so much of his ring total seems to be based on having one of the largest margins of error ever and managing to win rings even when significantly underperforming his regular season play, either because the other team got injured at just the right time (2015 cleveland/2018 rockets) or he had the most talented roster ever at his side (2016 1 minute away from winning/2018). it's such a luxury so many others didn't get.
from 2014-2023, except for 2022:
regular season: he never dipped below a PER of 24, with 3 seasons above 28 (and a 31.5).
post season: dipped below a PER of 23 (5x) more than he was above 24 (3x), with no seasons above 28 and only 1 above 25 (27.1). the one of course in 2017.
regular season: 7 seasons of 0.200 WS48 (ok, one was 0.199) or above with 3 of at least 0.267 WS48
post season: only 3 seasons that even eclipsed 0.185 WS48 and one of those was right at 0.203 WS48 (to his credit, it was 2022). only 1 up there in the 0.267 range, and it was 2017 of course.
he does a little better in BPM but still, seasons of 8.7, 9.9, and 11.9 in the regular season, and then 8.8 and 9.7 in the playoffs, with the 9.7 of course being 2017.
this is steph compared to known playoff maestro james harden. see a difference in these numbers? i really don't (average rank is the average of the rank of the individual stats). even down to them being best over their whole careers and worst at their peaks.
to me, it's hard to see him over kobe. kobe already has the longevity. he has playoff resilience. he has more absolute titles, and let's not act like playing with shaq was way easier than being on the durant warriors.
where steph's average series victory is as a +4.2 SRS favorite and his average series loss is only as a -0.1 SRS underdog, kobe's average series victory is as a paltry +1.4 SRS favorite and his average series loss as a -2.6 SRS underdog.
this isn't strictly just a shaq thing. if you don't include anything with shaq, the numbers are still only +1.9 and -3.0 for kobe. from the 2009 finals to the 2010 finals, the lakers played 5 series as an average of a 0.6 SRS favorite and won them all. that's pretty impressive.
resultantly, kobe has the actual vs expected titles advantage, and is actually pretty amazing in that regard.
kobe has 5 titles with an amazing 1.4 expected titles. his +3.6 delta is behind only people from the 60's celtics and his +254% is behind only hakeem. steph isn't terrible, but +1.4 and +51% isn't as shiny of an accomplishment. and he has a little bit of an advantage from not racking up a lot of playoff appearances on good/not great teams, where you tend to collect at least a fraction of an expected championship but with no real chance of winning one. steph just either made the playoffs with a team that could go to the finals or just missed the playoffs.
throw together the longevity on top of the playoff resiliency, both team and individual and it seems like kobe should be above steph. what i'm less clear on, and what i've been dreading, is what to do with bird. i can't very well be the playoff resiliency guy and the "actual vs expected" guy and pimp for bird, who is about even with steph in resiliency and worse in "actual vs expected" and certainly doesn't have amazing longevity. 4 years of "meh" playoffs to start his career up to 1983 and then 1987 is basically his last dominant playoffs? it's hard to ignore him showing up as a rookie and the celtics just immediately becoming a +7 SRS, 60 win team and then staying there for about a decade. it's also hard to ignore 1991, well past his prime, where the celtics are 46-14 with him (63 win pace) and 10-12 without him (37 win pace), for a nice +26 WOWY at the age of 34. that's a lot of WOWY as a rookie and out to 12 years into his career. with 8 straight top 2 MVP finishes in there. but man, playoff underperformance after playoff underperformance.
i don't know if i've posted it here, but between the ages of 23-35, larry bird had 5 playoff series with a TS% below 46. all of them were at home and he lost 4 of them, and 4 of them were during his 1981-1988 prime and he lost 3 of them, with only the 1981 finals against a sub 0.500 team being the win.
playoff series below 46 TS% between the ages of 23-35
larry bird - 5
Jordan, Lebron, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, Magic, Wilt, Kobe, Durant, Curry, Harden, Kawhi, Dirk, Malone, Barkley combined - 5
and wilt's 1 series arguably shouldn't count given the era he was playing in.
There's an issue with the playoff resilience argument though: these stats don't really get at what the pro-Steph supporters are actually arguing. It's talking past their point a bit.
Which Stats do we use?
Most of the crowd supporting Steph are incorporating some combination of actual impact stats. Not PER or WS48, but plus minus, or RAPM, or EPM, or WOWY, or WOWYR. And these stats are much more favorable to Curry in the playoffs.
Why do we (the pro-Steph crowd) prefer these stats? Well there's a few reasons, that you well know.
-They measure actual value in a role. They don't overrate scoring or underrate playmaking, they're not blind to defensive value or offensive leadership or off-ball value. They measure actual value.
-They do a better job in tests of stats. They correlate with wins in a game better, they correlate with good team performance better (i.e. they do a better job at 'describing' value in a game), they are better predictors of future games and future team performance (they are better at predicting value in future games)
Why does this matter for Steph?
The pro-Steph crowd has argued it's specifically important to use these stats when evaluating Steph, because so much of Steph's value specifically comes from stuff that gets missed in the basic box stats. GOAT level Off ball motion, GOAT level stretching the floor, GOAT level gravity, all-time guard screening, GOAT-level volume at drawing double teams, being the driver of a GOAT level offensive system, being a strong offensive communicator, fitting well alongside other talented stars, playing sound positional defense, strong defensive communication
... every single one of these things are missed by PER and WS48. Entirely. Yet these are some of the key things that puts Steph in contention for this vote
Which do the more accurate stats portray Steph in the playoffs?
Well, a lot more positively than you are. BPM is the most accurate box stat out of the ones you mentioned... it performs best on tests of how well it predicts team success and player value in the moment and in the future. And by your own admission, Steph gets betterin BPM.
This trend continues if we look to other stats. In AuPM (i.e. RAPM but stabler in short samples), pre-2022, Steph does not decline in the playoffs. And in fact is more valuable than Kobe. If we add 2022 and 2023, Steph actually improves in the playoffs on average.
Why does Steph show decline in certain playoffs? And what years do we focus on for our sample?
Steph was majorly injured in 2016. Steph was (slightly) injured in 2018. We've been over this. When looking at his 4-year peak (while throwing out 2017 for... reasons...), you'll note that Steph shows his biggest decline in 2016 in your own stat (when he had a major playoff injury). People who have been arguing for Steph's resiliency have argued that you need to separate playoff decline due to injury (2016) compared to healthy years, that the majority of the perceived decline is exclusively from taking injured samples with his healthy samples, and that he basically maintains value (a higher value than Kobe) or even gets better in a variety of impact stats when looking at healthy years.
Meanwhile, you throw out 2017 because it was "the easiest, most pressure-free playoff run ever,"... while ignoring the fact that it was only so easy and pressure free when Steph as playing. Also conveniently throwing out his single best playoff run ever. I bet playoff Hakeem would look worse without 1994, or playoff Shaq would look worse without 2001, or playoff Wilt would look worse without 1967.
It's interesting that you also don't include 2022 or 2023 in your later year by year focus, when Steph seemed to get better quite clearly in the playoffs. It also happened to be when he was healthy for the playoffs... but I'm sure that's just a coincidence

Meanwhile, your team arguments (looking at championship delta) seem to also miss all the arguments pro-Steph people have been making (that Steph's teams near his peak were pretty universally better than Kobe's teams... by basically every team stat we have).
I don't know man. The box stats are certainly interesting stuff, and the championship deltas are at least interesting. But basically none of this actually addresses the actual points that the pro-Steph crowd is arguing, nor does it address the concerns other people have raised with using this criteria (championships vs expected championships have a lot of potential noise and biases that we've discussed already). It's okay to have different criteria than others! But I'm not sure this actually addresses any of the arguments in favor of Steph.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
One_and_Done wrote:That last sentence was a pretty out there remark. Giannis is a perennial DPOY candidate. Dirk was somewhere between bad and solid. To claim the gap between Giannis and Dirk is smaller than between D.Rob and Giannis is clearly absurd. The Mavs would often hide Dirk on the worst offensive player. Giannis is even now maybe still the best defensive player in the NBA on balance. I say that as someone who wants to vote for Dirk soon.
I’d say Dirk was probably a 60th to 70th percentile defender. Somewhere around a +1 on average. Giannis is probably a 90th percentile. Some years he had a big impact. Some not. He’s maybe a +2.5 to +3 defensively. Robinson was a 100th percentile defender. He’s like a +5. The difference between an elite all-time defender and just a very good all-NBA defender is massive. 22/23 Giannis wasn’t much better than a typical Dirk year on D. He only has an impact when he’s zoned in.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
I'm planning to vote for Curry again, and plan on posting at length, but I'm really wondering what the affirmative case for Bird is.
I think the argument for Bird in the top 10 is very similar to the arguments used to diminish Garnett over the years, i.e. "KG was viewed as similar to Dirk, so he has to be closer to Dirk than Duncan". That's a load of crap. In reality, I think the net has been hurting Magic. Just as the board has realized Duncan and Garnett were peers, Jordan and Magic were peers. Both sets of guys have very similar arguments all-time. The only difference is, Dirk is a +/- monster, who warrants top 10 consideration. Bird is...not.
In reality, I wonder if we should view Bird as closer to Dr. J, who is out of most people's top 20s.
This might be surprising to hear, but I am considering Kobe for my alternate vote. I have a number of other players who have not yet been voted in ahead of Kobe on my GOAT list, however none are in the current nomination pool.
Don't take for granted that Bird is entitled to be enshrined close to Magic (who is a legitimate all-time great player).
I think the argument for Bird in the top 10 is very similar to the arguments used to diminish Garnett over the years, i.e. "KG was viewed as similar to Dirk, so he has to be closer to Dirk than Duncan". That's a load of crap. In reality, I think the net has been hurting Magic. Just as the board has realized Duncan and Garnett were peers, Jordan and Magic were peers. Both sets of guys have very similar arguments all-time. The only difference is, Dirk is a +/- monster, who warrants top 10 consideration. Bird is...not.
In reality, I wonder if we should view Bird as closer to Dr. J, who is out of most people's top 20s.
This might be surprising to hear, but I am considering Kobe for my alternate vote. I have a number of other players who have not yet been voted in ahead of Kobe on my GOAT list, however none are in the current nomination pool.
Don't take for granted that Bird is entitled to be enshrined close to Magic (who is a legitimate all-time great player).
Now that's the difference between first and last place.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
trelos6 wrote:Curry dominates the scoring / efficiency, while also being close with Magic in creation and turnovers.
I have Curry’s peak a touch higher than Bird and Magic.
All 3 have 8 MVP level years, an additional weak MVP level year. I give Magic 2 extra All-Star seasons, Larry 1, and Steph 0, but it’s negligible considering their 9 year primes.
I also grade Larry Bird as the best defender of the 3, however he grades out significantly worse in creation metrics. Although, I do like Larry as a creator, he’s just a step below the top tier guys.
Onto my official vote, for which I cannot deny the high scoring and high efficiency from Steph Curry.
#11. Steph Curry
#12. Larry Bird
Nomination: David Robinson
With your seasonal estimations / analysis (From what it seems, I'm taking a similar approach as well - while focusing on the pragmatic measures of impact), I've seen you mention how Kobe grades out very well in longevity (and him compared to Steph) in past threads. Am curious how you view him in this comparison at the moment - same logic applies for Bird here with the two 21st century guards.
With what you have mentioned, am wondering if you have thoughts on Kobe looking >= Bird in some of the prominent creation metrics, and the notion of him perhaps generating a career value edge from an additive value standpoint.
What I am referring to below:
Spoiler:
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)

How I see the next big group of candidates.
Each category is inclusive, so 1MVP season is also counted as a weak MVP, all nba and all star season.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
ceiling raiser wrote:I'm planning to vote for Curry again, and plan on posting at length, but I'm really wondering what the affirmative case for Bird is.
I think the argument for Bird in the top 10 is very similar to the arguments used to diminish Garnett over the years, i.e. "KG was viewed as similar to Dirk, so he has to be closer to Dirk than Duncan". That's a load of crap. In reality, I think the net has been hurting Magic. Just as the board has realized Duncan and Garnett were peers, Jordan and Magic were peers. Both sets of guys have very similar arguments all-time. The only difference is, Dirk is a +/- monster, who warrants top 10 consideration. Bird is...not.
In reality, I wonder if we should view Bird as closer to Dr. J, who is out of most people's top 20s.
This might be surprising to hear, but I am considering Kobe for my alternate vote. I have a number of other players who have not yet been voted in ahead of Kobe on my GOAT list, however none are in the current nomination pool.
Don't take for granted that Bird is entitled to be enshrined close to Magic (who is a legitimate all-time great player).
Who isn't nominated and you're considering?
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
One_and_Done wrote:ceiling raiser wrote:I'm planning to vote for Curry again, and plan on posting at length, but I'm really wondering what the affirmative case for Bird is.
I think the argument for Bird in the top 10 is very similar to the arguments used to diminish Garnett over the years, i.e. "KG was viewed as similar to Dirk, so he has to be closer to Dirk than Duncan". That's a load of crap. In reality, I think the net has been hurting Magic. Just as the board has realized Duncan and Garnett were peers, Jordan and Magic were peers. Both sets of guys have very similar arguments all-time. The only difference is, Dirk is a +/- monster, who warrants top 10 consideration. Bird is...not.
In reality, I wonder if we should view Bird as closer to Dr. J, who is out of most people's top 20s.
This might be surprising to hear, but I am considering Kobe for my alternate vote. I have a number of other players who have not yet been voted in ahead of Kobe on my GOAT list, however none are in the current nomination pool.
Don't take for granted that Bird is entitled to be enshrined close to Magic (who is a legitimate all-time great player).
Who isn't nominated and you're considering?
Would consider Dirk, Robinson, Nash, Stockton.
Now that's the difference between first and last place.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
The first 3 are great choices.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
trelos6 wrote:
How I see the next big group of candidates.
Each category is inclusive, so 1MVP season is also counted as a weak MVP, all nba and all star season.
Very curious how you get 13 all-NBA and 14 all-star seasons for Durant compared to only 10 all-NBA and 10 all-star seasons for Robinson. The way I see it, Robinson has 10 slam dunk seasons: ‘90, ‘91, ‘93-‘95, and ‘97-‘01. KD has ‘10-‘14, ‘16-‘18, and ‘21 for 9 slam dunk seasons.
Robinson has the injury in ‘92 where he plays 68 games and misses the playoffs, but was very good in the regular season. KD wasn’t very good in ‘08 or ‘09 and missed the playoffs, had a playoff injury in ‘19, played 55 games in ‘22 before playing so bad in the playoffs that the Nets probably would have been better off if he didn’t play, and then played 47 games last year before having another **** playoffs.
Even if you’re generous to KD’s 18/19 and 22/23 and classify them one level higher than Robinson’s ‘92 season, I would still say Robinson’s 11th best season is better than Durant’s 12th best season. But you somehow put KD’s 13th best season 2 levels ahead of Robinson’s 11th.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
Durant’s strong MVP span for me is 2012 (maybe?), 13-14, 16-19 for me. Post achilles, I’m not as high due to load management in 2021 and a dip in production since then.
Robinson’s for me would be 1990-91, 93 (maybe?), 94-96, 98-99 (maybe). 92 is on the fringes, as I deduct for his time missed.
So as high as 7 for Durant and 8 for Robinson.
Robinson’s for me would be 1990-91, 93 (maybe?), 94-96, 98-99 (maybe). 92 is on the fringes, as I deduct for his time missed.
So as high as 7 for Durant and 8 for Robinson.
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
rk2023 wrote:Durant’s strong MVP span for me is 2012 (maybe?), 13-14, 16-19 for me. Post achilles, I’m not as high due to load management in 2021 and a dip in production since then.
Robinson’s for me would be 1990-91, 93 (maybe?), 94-96, 98-99 (maybe). 92 is on the fringes, as I deduct for his time missed.
So as high as 7 for Durant and 8 for Robinson.
Post achilles Durant was still 95% as good as pre-Achilles KD probably. Certainly his stats still suggest as much, and blow Kobe out of the water.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #11 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 8/3/23)
One_and_Done wrote:rk2023 wrote:Durant’s strong MVP span for me is 2012 (maybe?), 13-14, 16-19 for me. Post achilles, I’m not as high due to load management in 2021 and a dip in production since then.
Robinson’s for me would be 1990-91, 93 (maybe?), 94-96, 98-99 (maybe). 92 is on the fringes, as I deduct for his time missed.
So as high as 7 for Durant and 8 for Robinson.
Post achilles Durant was still 95% as good as pre-Achilles KD probably. Certainly his stats still suggest as much, and blow Kobe out of the water.
How did that efficient scoring and face value Offensive rating look against Boston or Denver? Though nobody mentioned him, what In those stats suggest blowing Kobe out of the water?
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.