Peak Dirk vs. Peak Chris Paul

wafflzgod · Post #1 » by **wafflzgod** » Fri Sep 1, 2023 5:15 pm

Who do you prefer and why

rk2023 · Post #2 » by **rk2023** » Fri Sep 1, 2023 6:35 pm

I take Dirk here. Paul could be better per minute and per play, but I prefer Dirk as an offensive centerpiece, comfortably so, come playoff time. Durability is somewhat considered here too.

Stan · Post #3 » by **Stan** » Sat Sep 2, 2023 9:22 pm

This is frankly an insult to Dirk

Owly · Post #4 » by **Owly** » Sat Sep 2, 2023 10:06 pm

Stan wrote:This is frankly an insult to Dirk

I don't understand why it would be.
Paul's one of few players, especially pgs - if one curves for position, to author a 30 PER season.
He's one of few players with a +10 BPM season.
Ditto .280 WS/48 (these last two .. he's not right at the threshold once, he's done BPM twice, WS/48 thrice with a fourth season close)
He's one of few players with +20 on/off season (and so far as I'm aware other impact side stuff would reflect positively on him).
These aren't all aligned: his impact side stuff looks better on the Clippers I think, box stuff a little better on the Hornets.

I don't know otoh what the answer is, I don't look so much closely at individual season some stats can be a bit luck influenced, impact stuff will be substantially luck influenced, most tilt heavier towards the playoffs than I and that's going to be a smaller sample with uneven sample sizes and competition...

but I don't understand the view that the gap is so large that it is insulting to a player to ask the question.

Trying to get to that point of view ...
If one really trusted impact side stuff in the playoffs that aligns with a nice (impact) regular season to maybe get really high on Nowitzki's peak but (just looking at off the on/off) that would seem to result in being lower on playoff Dirk in general and we know the off samples are small in a single year so drawing big conclusions on such a noisy metric would be ... risky. It's probably more likely that someone that trusts impact side is regressing him down a bit based on the larger (still small) sample. Anyone feel free to correct me if more complex, primarily impact side metrics tell a different story (his career playoff box is pretty strong so things using that might look better).