I appreciate the more productive tone in here rk! Much more fun to discussrk2023 wrote:DraymondGold wrote:Spoiler:
So to address the points you put forth, and the years I feel are outright missing context:Spoiler:
2018 --> Why wasn't SRS brought up here? With or without Kyrie, the Bucks were a 3.7 pt SRS underdog heading into this series and took Boston the full distance (the same amount of games 2018 James' Cavaliers were able to take them, whom a lot tout as James' best self on offense, albeit Cleveland went into Boston and won to end the series. MIL had an ORTG of 109.5 (5.6 rORTG) against Boston's #1 ranked defense - where Giannis had 26-6 on 62.0% TS and solid TOV economy.

Why wasn't SRS brought up here? Because it wasn't an upset... I mentioned SRS to indicate which playoffs Giannis' team suffered an SRS upset (3/6 times, in 2019, 2020, 2023), and so didn't mention SRS in 2018 since it wasn't an upset. Agreed, the Bucks' offensive performance was good, as were Giannis' box stats. Of course, their defense was bad... they were below average at +1.8 rDRTG (where negative is better). But it's a positive overall showing, offense included.
However, to reiterate my general point, is it so positive that it makes sense to take Giannis just yet?
The 2019 Raptors were quite good both with and without Kawhi. Yes, Kawhi missed 22 games. But if we look at both teams' margins of victory per gamewith each player in the regular season:rk2023 wrote:2019 --> Using Regular Season SRS here to get your agenda off when the 19 Raptors are known to have translated very well to the PS - especially on the defensive end - and had a load managed, sort-of coasting, Kawhi who missed 20 games outright (known for his own amazing playoff resilience) doesn't capture the whole picture. Yes, Giannis had offensive struggles against Toronto's vaunted defense - but he was the anchor in what has been the best slate of PS defenses in the modern era (keying in on 19-22) including anchoring a very solid unit against the Raptors themselves - where they were held 5 points under their RS rating (including to a 105.6 ORTG in Giannis' minutes - which MIL won by 2.2/100). This is not to mentioning MIL, led by a tremendous 2-way series by Giannis, cremating the Celtics (this time with Kyrie).
2019 Raptors then Bucks, h/t Sansterre:Spoiler:Spoiler:
2019 Raptors with Kawhi: +3.98 MoV
2019 Bucks with Giannis: +10.0 MoV (151% better!)
That's a +6 difference in favor of the Bucks over healthy Raptors, and the Bucks lost. It would take a *lot* of coasting from Kawhi to explain away the Raptors victory. Losing to a team who was this much worse than you in the regular season basically never happens. I just have a hard time chalking this entire up to just "Kawhi's amazing playoff resilience". To me, it would only make sense if there was some playoff decline from the Bucks as well.
Let's check a larger sample. There is evidence for this decline in the Bucks against better teams in the regular season too. There was a stat available in 2019–2020 (having trouble re-finding it now... would appreciate help if anyone else knows where) that showed team performance against the better teams in the NBA and worse teams in the NBA (e.g. SRS in games against top half of teams vs SRS against bottom half of teams). In the regular season, the 2019 – 2020 regular season Bucks had a bigger improvement against worse teams and a bigger drop against better teams of almost any other great team in the time sample (which was this century, if I remember right...?). So in the 2019–2020 timespan, the Bucks also declined against better teams in the regular season. Why was this decline happening?
Defense: Was it defense? Probably not. I absolutely agree with your / Sansterre's analysis here, the Bucks team defense was great. They were near their defensive peak in 2019, and that peak was one of the best defensive teams of the century. Some of that credit goes to Giannis. Giannis was their best defensive player near his defensive peak. But if it was all Giannis, why were they a below average defense in the 2018 playoffs? Yes, Giannis absolutely took the jump from 2018 to 2019. But it's worth mentioning there were other factors that led to their defensive improvement in 2019. They switched to a better-fitting, defensive minded coach going from Kidd to Bud. And importantly, they signed Brook Lopez, one of the best rim protectors in the NBA, and a guy who could feasibly play twin towers alongside Giannis without giving anything away on offense (he was also one of the best stretch bigs in the NBA!).
Offense: If the decline wasn't defense, then presumably it was offense. You suggest some of the decline came from Giannis' poor efficiency -- his relative true shooting dropped -6.8% in the playoffs, and dropped -10.7% in the series vs the Raptors. That's a big drop. At the time, there were lots of reports of the "build a wall" defense doing serious damage to Giannis' offense, and I have to agree that's what I was seeing at the time.
But you suggest much of the decline might actually be a drop in free throw percentage (citing Sansterre), with the implication that some of this might be noise/luck. I'm not sure that's true. The issue is Giannis declines in his playoff FT% in every prime playoffs:
2018: 76% RS FT%, 69% playoff FT%. Change: -7%
2019: 73% RS FT%, 64% playoff FT%. Change: -9%
2020: 63% RS FT%, 58% playoff FT%. Change: -5%
2021: 69% RS FT%, 59% playoff FT%. Change: -10%
2022: 72% RS FT%, 68% playoff FT%. Change: -4%
2023: 65% RS FT%, 45% playoff FT%. Change: -19%
Career: 71% RS FT%, 62% playoff FT%. Change: -9%
To my eye, 2019 doesn't stand out as an outlier. Giannis declines (sometimes significantly) in his FT% in every single prime playoffs. How much is it caused by "choking, frustrations, lack of condition[ing], what have you" to quote Sansterre? No clue. But it does seem like a real change.
To my eye, when you see a consistent significant decline in playoff FT%, a consistent significant decline in playoff rTS% (particularly against better defenses), combined with a team that measurably declines against better teams in the regular season (at least in 2019–2020, Idk after), and has a high percentage (50% of the time!) of being upset by significantly worse teams... all these things don't scream resilient offense or resilience overall.
As I said in my first post, could you make the argument that the 2019 struggles are just Giannis (and the Bucks) getting used to deep playoff runs for the first time, then 2020 and 2023 are just declines from injury, while 2021–2022 are the true performance? Certainly. But I have a hard time coming away with the opinion that star's offense is particularly resilient enough (whether it's inexperienced 2019, poor health, or actual poor resilient play style) to take him over other players who have clearly more career value, prime length, and longevity (at least as of 2023).
Re: why “one Kevin Durant foot away from an SRS upset” was mentioned (I appreciate the compliment that I tend to tangibly drill down deeper on individual performance!), this section that we’ve been focusing on was more meant to be a ‘high level team results overview’ before getting more in the weeds in the following sentences (which I did by looking at Giannis’ AuPM) and hoped to do in discussion with others.rk2023 wrote:2021 --> "One Kevin Durant foot away from an SRS upset" reads as a moot point for me (I'm surprised this is being mentioned as a lot of the posts I've seen from you tangibly drill down on individual performance and impact to gauge whom did what and to what particular extent it was done). I'm in the camp that Giannis was the best player in that series - clearly:Spoiler:
I.e. “For Giannis to make up a massive deficit in career value, he needs to be *significantly, massively* better in the playoffs -> his high-level team results (wins) actually declined from expectations -> his more detailed team results (e.g. relative Net Rating) declined in all-time rank -> Giannis’ individual playoff impact (AuPM) declined in the playoffs (perhaps because of injury, perhaps not) -> Giannis may decline in the playoffs (with health concerns), but regardless at least does not get *significantly, massively* better in the playoffs to make up for the career value deficit”
Re: Giannis vs Durant, you could absolutely make a case that Giannis was better than Durant. There are certainly counter arguments though. In Backpicks BPM (the best box stat on the market, significantly more stable than impact stuff, actually outperforms Adjusted Plus Minus in predictive accuracy), Durant outperformed Giannis.
Giannis BPM: 4.3
Durant BPM: 6.7
Like you say, the on-rating favors Giannis as does on/off. Durant’s team was significantly more injured — Kyrie and Harden both missed 3 games — which does decrease Durant’s on rating, and adds some instability to the lineup which may have made it harder for Durant. The counter would be that Harden and Irving were all injured in the regular season, so perhaps it’s par for the course for those Nets.
It seems like I’m was a bit lower on Giannis’ decision making in this series than you were. Giannis took 4 3PAs per 36, 4.4 3PAs per game, and hit them at a frigid 26%. Over the entire playoffs, he hit them at an even colder 19%! I don’t exactly punish him for his lack of a 3 point shot alone. You can have impact without shooting range. However, when he has fewer other counters relative to all-time players too (no midrange counters, no foul drawing and making ability, in addition to no 3 point game)... it does limit your offensive resilience. Worse yet, he seemed to keep taking those 3 point attempts at higher volume than ideal, and often at poor times in the possession. He would take them unforced, early on in the possession, when there was plenty of time to get a better shot. As a guy who was actually rooting for Giannis this series, it almost made me pull my hair out!

Here’s some film analysis I did a while back, but updated now:
2021 Nets vs Bucks, Game 5, final 6 minutes.
Some Film observations:
-Durant: larger overall volume (Durant > Giannis). Giannis had more cases where he was inactive in the possession (Giannis had 7 inactive possessions to Durant’s 4 in the list above, although this skipped the possessions where both were inactive). Durant was the involved in almost every single offensive possession, as well as a number of defensive possessions. This is consistent with what I saw throughout the rest of the series, and Durant played more minutes
-Durant offense: better shotmaking (Durant > Giannis). Great shot making, better efficiency at the foul line to win the game. Didn’t pass much, but did draw defensive attention and playmaker out of it. Giannis has occasional moments where he was more aggressive, but also seemed less aggressive driving to the rim in transition or in the half court than he was in the regular season. Hard to tell exactly how much this is from increased fatigue in the playoffs, a more packed paint based on playoff adjustment, or hesitancy to get sent to the line.
Durant Example Clips: Part 1 2:40 , Part 2 3:15.
Giannis Example Clips: Good aggression and poor free throw shooting Part 1 1:35.
-Durant + Giannis offense: limited playmaking (con for both). The Nets offense was quite slow to get into its actions, often starting the play with ~12 seconds on the shot clock. The actions they ran were very frequently just Durant iso or Durant PNR. While Durant has the potential to be scalable, this kind of offense doesn’t get the best out of the other teammates. Still, when Durant was doubled, he was a very willing passer. Giannis meanwhile didn’t showcase much of his playmaking. Since he was less aggressive driving to the basket, he didn’t have as much rim gravity as the regular season. Instead he seemed to focus more on being off ball as a screener, but he slipped many of his screens, so they didn’t always actually generate much of an opening.
Durant Example Clips: Part 1 0:50, Part 1 5:56.
Giannis Example Clips: weaker screening 2:55
-Con for Giannis: occasional poor decision making settling for inefficient attempts on offense. The 3 point shot below was head scratching, as was the decision to commit to turnaround midrange shot with time on the clock against Harden of all defenders.
Example Clips: Terrible 3 point shot Part 1 3:35, poor decision against Harden Part 1 9:05.
-Pro for Giannis: Moments of better rim protection (Giannis > Durant). He had a great block at the rim, and had cases where he collapsed to the paint and forced the pass rather than the rim attempt. Although he had a surprising frequency inactive possessions, just zoning up the weak side. This was consistent in the other film sessions I did for the other games. How much latent value do these weak side inactive possessions have? Perhaps some. Perhaps the Nets always go to the far side away from Giannis (which might add some value if it’s headed towards more defenders or to someone’s off hand), or perhaps the possibility of him sliding over to protect the rim encouraged more midrange shots rather than drives (which would limit efficiency, even if it’s still in Durant’s comfort zone).
So Giannis has some great moments, some moments where he may have latent value (?) or just be inactive while his teammates are the primary defenders. This is consistent with the idea that the best defenders in the game generally have much lower defensive volume than the best offensive players have offensive volume.
Durant, for his part, had few moments of good perimeter defense vs Middleton and Jrue. Durant was playing more of a floor-raising role on defense, as one of their primary switchable bigs, rather than a ceiling raising role alongside other better defenders. Still, Durant has fewer cases of rim protection, and less latent value when inactive than Giannis, so advantage Giannis on defense.
Giannis Example Clips: Good defensive block Part 1 0:50, good job forcing pass Part 1 8:05. Inactive example Part 1 2:40
Durant Example Clips: Part 1 2:55, Part 1 6:18.
…
All that to say, you can absolutely make the case for Giannis > Durant in that series, but I wouldn’t say it’s a significant advantage. There’s a case for Durant as well. And if peak Giannis on the peak Bucks team isn’t looking significantly better than Durant at age 32, post-Achilles injury, then I’m not sure how he’s supposed to make up for the lack of career value. If you take a broader view, including the regular season, then I absolutely favor Giannis in 2021. But the point still stands.
How much more could I have asked for Giannis? A lot more, if I’m expected to take 5 years of prime Giannis over Durant’s entire career or his 10 year prime, or Barkley’s 16 year career (8+ prime years) for that matter, or Nash’s 18 year career (6–10 year prime). How much more for Giannis to be *on pace* to pass those players by the time we get more of a complete prime from him? Not much more at all.rk2023 wrote:2022 --> Glad you mentioned the ramp up in defense / elevation against a very formidable opponent (one that was favored by 4 SRS - without factoring in MIL being w/o Middleton - and was taken 7 games). However, just going off of the "X.YZ % true shooting drop" is lazy analysis. Linking a graphic here for the full breakdown of impact and production (not originally mine, and I unfortunately forgot the source) which was left out for just the raw scoring efficacy- and I am aware that the +/- and on-off here is a small sample once again (https://imgur.com/a/kZBhHAc). In a more rhetorical sense, what more could you have asked for Giannis as he raised his offensive load / responsibility to a 100th %ile value (only surpassed by Young, Doncic, LBJ, Westbrook) in Taylor's series database?
The point of the true shooting drop was to show another example that Giannis doesn’t have the sufficient offensive resiliency to take his career over those other guys just yet. But perhaps it was too shallow analysis. You’re right that Middleton was out, and that taking the Celtics to 7 games is a great showing without Middleton. I wonder if the lack of Middleton made it easier for the Celtic to focus in on stopping Giannis’ offense. If so, what would his efficiency look like with a healthy Middleton? Perhaps better. The defense was certainly there.
AuPM suggests 2022 was Giannis’ best playoff run, although BPM suggests 2018–2021 was better. If we believe there’s a signal there and not noise, AuPM is likely picking up on Giannis’ defense (without as strong of a team performance when Giannis was off sans Middleton) in 2022, while BPM is picking up the significant drop in efficiency.
All that to say, 2022 playoffs is not a terrible showing by any means. It’s absolutely in line with a player who’s on pace to be Top 20 ever. But it doesn’t exactly assuage the offensive resiliency concerns (even if they’re assuaged by context), nor does it suggest Giannis is a sufficient playoff beast to take his career over Durant or Barkley or Moses or Nash until he has a few more year under his belt.
rk2023 wrote:- In general, you mention that a fair share of Giannis' problems are due to health (or at-least pose the question, perhaps this is more accurate). All three of his PS injuries have been more or less flukes rather than a case of his body being fragile / concerns about holding up - I wouldn't even attribute this towards his play-style. They happened yes, but I don't like the way it is being framed. It's just very odd that Giannis gets roasted for immediately returning from a back injury requiring him to take IV fluids and not be close to his full health for a team collapse with almost all parties involved / facing supernova Butler. It's crazy that had he sat out and nursed the injury some more, he probably wouldn't have this crazy a revisionist history for his PS translation (saying in general, here).
-I made it pretty clear in my post back then that I saw Robinson's postseason decline as *partially* explainable by poor fit during his prime, and that (at a minimum) he could actually be a playoff improver in an ideal situation.
In general, I commend the approach to push back against fundamental attribution error, but I don't see the same rationale laid out for Giannis. With how he is discussed (compared to others like Garnett and Robinson) it is almost like Giannis is being penalized for shouldering more than both on the offensive end, and better equipped to raise a team's floor. Not to mention ball-stopping and puzzling shot-selection from other Milwaukee teammates (eg. terrible 3P% compared to RS results against BOS, BKN, MIA, & TOR across 2019-22 - the latter two years where Giannis was more efficient [substantially so in 2021] than the team averages in-spite of shouldering the brunt of MIL's offense.
^ Mentioned this all in the last thread, pushing back against the "Giannis poor resiliency / durability" narrative I'm seeing pushed.[/quote][/quote]
Re: Injury, Giannis plays a *very* physical style of basketball. I guess you could argue each injury was a fluke, in the sense that the exact injury that occurred was different each year. It’s not like Pual’s recurring hamstring injury. But I also don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that, when you play as physical as Giannis, the increased wear and tear of the playoffs may increase injury odds.
Re: situation, I would have to think we’d agree that prime Robinson and Garnett had a significantly worse situation than Giannis, no?
Giannis has two costars in Middleton and Holiday — absolutely more support than either peak Robinson or Garnett had. Both help share the offensive burden. Both are positive defenders, particularly Jrue who’s one of the best guard defenders of the century, which is particularly scalable when you have rim protection behind you. Speaking of rim protection, Giannis is paired with a weak DPOY to DPOY level defender in Brook Lopez, who also happens to be one of the best floor spacers in the game… which is particularly valuable alongside a guy whose offense depends on deriving to the rim. I also wouldn’t say their depth beyond the starters was terrible. Seems significantly better than mid-90s Robinson and mid-00s Garnett.
Re: poor teammate shooting, like I said in my film analysis, Giannis seems to drive to the rim less (or at least had less efficacy) against the Nets. It may be a limited film sample, but it was also consistent with my impression from the rest of the series. If Giannis is stifled more by a build a wall defense in the playoffs, or is more fatigued and so doesn’t drive as aggressively, that might collapse the defense less effectively, which would lead to worse quality 3 point looks for his teammates. He certainly faced this kind of defense that stifled his rim effectiveness against Boston, and Miami, and Toronto too. Could the decline of Giannis’ driving game lead to worse shots for teammates? It could be noise or bad luck too. Middleton’s injury in 22 could have played a role against Boston. etc. I’d want to look closer at statistics on the teammate shot quality or more film of the 3 point attempts they were missing.