Well, I've been agonizing some choices, but I'm out of time and just have to put something down now.
Induction Vote 1: Dwyane Wade
Well, this one wasn't hard for me. Voted for him before, voting for him again. To put it in a new way:
Can we agree that Wade did more for the Heat than any of the other Nominees did for any of their teams? Not saying this alone clinches him the spot for me, but yes, I think Wade did more for the Heat in total than Giannis & Jokic have done for their respective teams to this point, as well as more than what Barkley & Harden did for any of their teams.
And yes, this is a perspective that values his role in forming the Heatles around himself, not in spite of one of those guys being better than himself, but very much helped by this fact. Understandable anyone who would choose not to consider something like this.
As I say that, I don't think it's clear cut that, say, Giannis has a higher peak than Wade in terms of how they dominated in their era. Giannis is the greater regular season player sure, but he's very much known for his playoff stumbles at this point. Wade by contrast was consistently a playoff "overachiever" in his early years to the point where the term became absurd. Dude was just a buzzsaw that was exceptionally resilient against playoff defense. And when he had that playoff motor going, I do believe that Wade had some serious defensive impact too. As much as Giannis? Eh, I won't make that claim, but impressive to the viewer and intimidating to opponents.
I won't say it's even necessarily clear cut that Jokic peaks higher than Wade, though I wouldn't want to try to make a case against Jokic at this point. What he did last season is just unreal to me.
Over to Barkley & Harden. There's something of a lost-benefit-of-the-doubt thing for both of these guys in a comparison with Wade with my criteria. I'm not going to put them below every guy who led a team to a chip because luck aside, some supporting casts are better than others. But the thing that is Heat Culture is built on the solid rock foundation of Wade, and there's a lack of professionalism in Barkley & Harden that to me makes it hard to imagine such positive aftershocks.
I do see a serious argument for Barkley over Wade on the back of his utterly unique physical talent. If you see him as having both the stronger peak and longer longevity, makes sense why you'd pick him.
I do see a serious argument for Harden over Wade based on a more 2020s-oriented criteria. I'm on record being concerned with Wade's limited shooting. But I also have concerns with Harden's reliance on trickery for foul calls, as that seems to cause his dominance to tend to decrease over the course of tight playoff series...which is not remotely how I see Wade. Wade didn't always peak late in the series, but it was like he had the ability to spike at particular moments when needed, making the gap between his outlier athleticism and mere mortal NBA playoff players all the more jaw-dropping. I don't know if this difference would be enough to make Wade better than Harden in today's league, but that's not my criteria.
Induction Vote 2: Nikola JokicSo, yeah, in a vote that will apparently come down to Chuck & Giannis, I'm punting here in favor of two guys I just rank higher.
This isn't some kind of moral high ground thing for me, I just feel I have the right to either try to have a say in the effective run-off, so speak more on a guy I rate higher. Maybe I'll do something different next time.
Part of what's going on here is that I'm honestly torn between Chuck & Giannis. If I felt really strongly there, I'd probably use my second for the guy I favor. But arguments for each over the other resonate for me.
On the other hand, Jokic's case resonates for me ahead of the other two.
The first part of that is peak. I don't think most would see it as strange to favor Jokic over Barkley by peak, and I also feel at this point that Jokic's game actually seems more bulletproof than Giannis' by a significant margin.
I also don't see Giannis as having a clear cut longevity advantage. Yes, he's played in the league longer, but he really wasn't relevant to elite conversation until his 6th year in the league.
What about Barkley's longevity? Well, there's no doubt that this is a point in Barkley's favor. The question is only whether that factor is big enough to overwhelm Jokic's advantages.
Here's a particular perspective to consider:
Jokic's duration in Denver has now match Barkley's in Philly. If we can agree that Barkley's case is based on longevity, then that's basically another way of saying that it's Barkley's post-Philly career that takes him over the top in the comparison. Looking just one year into that run, Barkley's MVP campaign seems just the thing to do the trick...but of course Jokic has already won 2 MVPs and really, really deserved the MVP this last year. That Barkley year certainly helps elevate his stature generally, but I think the MVP lens really hammers in how big the gap is between Denver Jokic and Philly Barkley. It's not close.
Barkley has a few more good years in him after that, but in terms of Top 5 seasons, he doesn't get another nod from me after that...which means he gets no such nods from me in his 30s. Doesn't mean he can't get the nod here by someone's assessment...but I wouldn't actually say Barkley's longevity-adding years hit home for me the way, say, David Robinson's years do. If Barkley's did, well, I'd expect to have him ahead of Robinson.
Nomination Vote 1: Bob Pettit
I'm not seriously entertaining anyone else for this spot at this time. I think Pettit's totally legit as a player. I don't see him as drastically worse than West & Oscar, the guys from his era immediately above him. I think he could be an excellent pro in any era.
I do get being not-that-impressed by his team breaking through and winning a championship with Bill Russell getting hurt, but I don't feel comfortable brushing aside that 50 & 19 performance as if it's obvious that that's what should be expected with Russell out. This was a giant center simply overpowering a too-small-sans-Russell lineup. Pettit was a 4, doing damage with shooting range and drawing fouls like crazy.
This is no small thing.
Nomination Vote 2: Walt FrazierYeah, so I've been agonizing over this one. Makes sense given that this is where the the structure that narrows the field in Induction stops. It's the place to consider all of the players not yet Inducted or Nominated, and of course that's the vast majority of'em.
With Frazier, the pros and cons are clear. I think his prime was really damn strong, and I think he was the keystone of the Red Holzman Knicks more so than any other player. In comparison with contemporary rivals like John Havlicek, Rick Barry & Wes Unseld, I just think Frazier was better than any of them.
He didn't last all that long though, so there's a major question of whether longevity should favor someone else. To be honest, I kinda felt myself thinking that I should pick someone other than Frazier here...but I couldn't make myself anoint any particular guy.
I probably spent the most time considering Mr. Guard longevity John Stockton, and so that means that next time he might be the most likely for me to switch my vote to.
I'll tell you though, I'm really not sure about Stockton over Reggie Miller. I kinda think Reggie was the better playoff player and extreme longevity himself.
And then there's a guy I'm already soft-championing in Manu Ginobili. On a per minute basis, I'd definitely take Manu over Reggie (or Stockton). I'm seriously considering him over them.
I'd be remiss not to mention Scottie Pippen. I rank his prime play ahead of Stockton & Miller...but his career fell off abruptly somewhat like Frazier's did. It really doesn't seem right to me to favor Pippen over Frazier based on longevity. Feels like you have to prefer Pippen to Frazier, and I just don't. I think we see a gap in shooting ability that puts them in fundamentally different tiers as scorers, and I think Frazier stacks up pretty dang well in the rest of the game too.
That's me mentioning a lot of guys I could see possibly Nominating over Frazier, and there are others as well, but Frazier's the one still standing out most as I look at this right now.
