Why did LeBron team offenses succeed so often in the playoffs?

[70sFan]

The graphs are definitely nice and I gave a like but individual offense consists of scoring volume, creation and turnovers too.

Analysis of how better defenses affect those three factors as well would give us a more complete picture. We know Jordan's volume was much higher than Lebron's and his turnovers much lower.

By the way, in terms of relative efficiency in the playoffs, Kareem is king. For the entire span from 1970-1980 he's +6.0 rTS above league average. From 1974-1980 he's a whopping +9.0 rTS above league average. Adjust relative to opponent and it's probably about 2 points higher too.

I'm afraid creation might be tricker, but volume and turnovers can be visualised fairly easy.

[homecourtloss]

The graphs are definitely nice and I gave a like but individual offense consists of scoring volume, creation and turnovers too.

Analysis of how better defenses affect those three factors as well would give us a more complete picture. We know Jordan's volume was much higher than Lebron's and his turnovers much lower.

By the way, in terms of relative efficiency in the playoffs, Kareem is king. For the entire span from 1970-1980 he's +6.0 rTS above league average. From 1974-1980 he's a whopping +9.0 rTS above league average. Adjust relative to opponent and it's probably about 2 points higher too.

Kareem is the efficiency king, but a little something here.

Kareem from 1974 to 1980 played 53 playoff games, -2.5 rDRtg faced in these 53 games, +10.6 rTS%

LeBron from 2012-2018 played 143 playoff games with a +7.1 rTS% (-2.9 rDRtg faced)

LeBron from 2012-2018 sans 2015 played 123 playoff games with a +9.1 rTS% (-3 rDRtg faced)

LeBron from 2014 to 2018 sans 2015 played 77 playoff games with a +10.3 rTS% (-2.6 rDRtg faced)

LeBron from 2012-2018 taking his best series (85 games worth vs. a combined -3.2 rDRtg): +11.3 rTS%

LeBron from 2012-2018 taking his best series (72 games worth vs. a combined -3.3 rDRtg): +12.1 rTS%

LeBron from 2012-2018 taking his best series (65 games worth vs. a combined -3.6 rDRtg): +12.4 rTS% and +12.7 reFG% (notice that the defenses are better but LeBron is better vs. the better defenses)

[OhayoKD]

The graphs are definitely nice and I gave a like but individual offense consists of scoring volume, creation and turnovers too.

Analysis of how better defenses affect those three factors as well would give us a more complete picture. We know Jordan's volume was much higher than Lebron's and his turnovers much lower.

By the way, in terms of relative efficiency in the playoffs, Kareem is king. For the entire span from 1970-1980 he's +6.0 rTS above league average. From 1974-1980 he's a whopping +9.0 rTS above league average. Adjust relative to opponent and it's probably about 2 points higher too.

I'm afraid creation might be tricker, but volume and turnovers can be visualised fairly easy.

luka listed out the sophisticated box scoring and playmaking:

Spoiler:

1991 certainly seems like an outlier for MJ on the playmaking front. If 1991 MJ isn't consider an outlier on the playmaking front, than neither should Lebron's 09 run as a scorer.

I'm also not certain how Play-Val is calculated over multi-year stretches, but the gap becomes really apparent when you look at 3-year stretches.

Lebron, Magic, and Nash are tied for #1 at +2.5 over 3-year PS PlayVal Peaks. They are the best of the best.

Jordan best 3-year PlaVal stretch is +1.9.

Per ScoreVal (Scoring value, an estimate of a player’s points per 100 impact from scoring only.), Lebron's best scoring run is in 14, where he is a +3.7. 09 Lebron is a +3.5. Both of these runs are better than any Jordan run by ScoreVal. I don't think you would argue Lebron is a better scorer than MJ, so I think you see where I am going with this.

The gap between them as scorers is actually smaller than the gap between them as playmakers, if we go by the ScoreVal/PlayVal Metrics.


Lebron has a a +.8 lead in Single-Year PS ScoreVal peaks.

Jordan only has a +.01 lead in Single-Year PS PlayVal peaks.


Lebron has a +.6 lead in 3-year PS PlayVal peaks.

Jordan has a +.4 lead in 3-year PS ScoreVal peaks

[homecourtloss]

The graphs are definitely nice and I gave a like but individual offense consists of scoring volume, creation and turnovers too.

Analysis of how better defenses affect those three factors as well would give us a more complete picture. We know Jordan's volume was much higher than Lebron's and his turnovers much lower.

By the way, in terms of relative efficiency in the playoffs, Kareem is king. For the entire span from 1970-1980 he's +6.0 rTS above league average. From 1974-1980 he's a whopping +9.0 rTS above league average. Adjust relative to opponent and it's probably about 2 points higher too.

Kareem is the efficiency king, but a little something here.
Kareem from 1974 to 1980 played 53 playoff games, -2.5 rDRtg faced in these 53 games, +10.6 rTS%

LeBron from 2012-2018 played 143 playoff games with a +7.1 rTS% (-2.9 rDRtg faced)
LeBron from 2012-2018 sans 2015 played 123 playoff games with a +9.1 rTS% (-3 rDRtg faced)
LeBron from 2014 to 2018 sans 2015 played 77 playoff games with a +10.3 rTS% (-2.6 rDRtg faced)
LeBron from 2012-2018 taking his best series (85 games worth vs. a combined -3.2 rDRtg): +11.3 rTS%
LeBron from 2012-2018 taking his best series (72 games worth vs. a combined -3.3 rDRtg): +12.1 rTS%

LeBron from 2012-2018 taking his best series (65 games worth vs. a combined -3.6 rDRtg): +12.4 rTS% and +12.7 reFG% (notice that the defenses are better but LeBron is better vs. the better defenses)

LeBron is on another level in the playoffs.

He exploits every weakness and he plays against the opposing coach just as much as the defenders in front of him.

He is the greatest offensive force we've seen. He does it in a way that improves in the playoffs rather than dropping off in the playoffs like other all time great offensive players.

Because he is one of the greatest offensive players of all time with a legit argument for #1 offensive peak

As pointed out here by falcon and Zimpy, not only does LeBron provide tremendously efficacious personal scoring regardless of defense is faced, but he also provides play making that allows for his teams to create some of the greatest playoff offenses ever.

Kareem from 1974-1980 posted a remarkable +10.6 rTS against a combined -2.5 rDRtg. His teams from 1977 to 1980 posted a +3.5 rORtg (BKREF doesn’t have the individual playoff series ORtgs for 1974), which is really good (might be +4 to +4.5 if we include 1974), but does not touch the types of offenses LeBron created.

[Djoker]

The graphs are definitely nice and I gave a like but individual offense consists of scoring volume, creation and turnovers too.

Analysis of how better defenses affect those three factors as well would give us a more complete picture. We know Jordan's volume was much higher than Lebron's and his turnovers much lower.

By the way, in terms of relative efficiency in the playoffs, Kareem is king. For the entire span from 1970-1980 he's +6.0 rTS above league average. From 1974-1980 he's a whopping +9.0 rTS above league average. Adjust relative to opponent and it's probably about 2 points higher too.

Kareem is the efficiency king, but a little something here.
Kareem from 1974 to 1980 played 53 playoff games, -2.5 rDRtg faced in these 53 games, +10.6 rTS%

LeBron from 2012-2018 played 143 playoff games with a +7.1 rTS% (-2.9 rDRtg faced)
LeBron from 2012-2018 sans 2015 played 123 playoff games with a +9.1 rTS% (-3 rDRtg faced)
LeBron from 2014 to 2018 sans 2015 played 77 playoff games with a +10.3 rTS% (-2.6 rDRtg faced)
LeBron from 2012-2018 taking his best series (85 games worth vs. a combined -3.2 rDRtg): +11.3 rTS%
LeBron from 2012-2018 taking his best series (72 games worth vs. a combined -3.3 rDRtg): +12.1 rTS%

LeBron from 2012-2018 taking his best series (65 games worth vs. a combined -3.6 rDRtg): +12.4 rTS% and +12.7 reFG% (notice that the defenses are better but LeBron is better vs. the better defenses)

LeBron is on another level in the playoffs.

He exploits every weakness and he plays against the opposing coach just as much as the defenders in front of him.

He is the greatest offensive force we've seen. He does it in a way that improves in the playoffs rather than dropping off in the playoffs like other all time great offensive players.

Because he is one of the greatest offensive players of all time with a legit argument for #1 offensive peak

As pointed out here by falcon and Zimpy, not only does LeBron provide tremendously efficacious personal scoring regardless of defense is faced, but he also provides play making that allows for his teams to create some of the greatest playoff offenses ever.

Kareem from 1974-1980 posted a remarkable +10.6 rTS against a combined -2.5 rDRtg. His teams from 1977 to 1980 posted a +3.5 rORtg (BKREF doesn’t have the individual playoff series ORtgs for 1974), which is really good (might be +4 to +4.5 if we include 1974), but does not touch the types of offenses LeBron created.

Sure but there's two big factors going against Kareem here:
- he played in an era of parity where +4 rORtg is really really good
- from about 1972 to 1979, he played with teams that lacked in offensive talent especially factoring in teammate injuries

By the way since there is total playoff pace for every team, we have series pace for all the 1st round series and can calculate series pace for all others and estimate rORtg and rDRtg up to 1974.

I did it here:

Milwaukee Bucks (1970-1974 Playoffs)

1970 vs Sixers
+9.2 rORtg -2.6 rDRtg 115.8 Pace

1970 vs Knicks
+1.7 rORtg +3.4 rDRtg 109.4 Pace

1971 vs Warriors
+7.0 rORtg -7.1 rDRtg 110.2 Pace

1971 vs Lakers
+4.5 rORtg -11.2 rDRtg 106.8 Pace

1971 vs Bullets
+2.7 rORtg -9.2 rDRtg 108.0 Pace

1972 vs Warriors
+4.7 rORtg -6.2 rDRtg 112.5 Pace

1972 vs Lakers
-0.3 rORtg -12.8 rDRtg 114.9 Pace

1973 vs Warriors
+2.2 rORtg -3.0 rDRtg 107.9 Pace

1974 vs Lakers
+5.8 rORtg -7.5 rDRtg 103.5 Pace

1974 vs Bulls
+16.6 rORtg -0.6 rDRtg 100.5 Pace

1974 vs Celtics
-2.2 rORtg -0.9 rDRtg 94.8 Pace

[lessthanjake]

The reason is that LeBron is a great offensive player. There’s a bit of an assist from the fact that the Eastern Conference was so bad though. I’m a firm believer in the fact that there’s teams that have an extra playoff gear and there’s ones that don’t and that were playing way closer to their peak level in the RS (usually the teams that have an extra gear are ones that have a superstar, though there’s occasional exceptions like the 2004 Pistons). This is why no one generally expects much of teams that have great regular seasons but don’t have a real superstar—we just kind of all know that come playoff time they won’t have an extra gear to go to. It’s easier to rack up good relative ORTG or relative DRTG against teams without an extra gear, because good teams ramp up and play much better in the playoffs and teams without an extra gear can’t, so that kind of just systematically results in good teams crushing the weaker team’s RS rating. There’s a whole lot of that going on with LeBron here. Granted, the rORTG’s are still good even if we just looked at teams that were legitimately good teams, but the gaudiest numbers are essentially all against teams that I just don’t think we could really say were an extra-playoff-gear kind of team. The exact number depends on exactly what teams we count (which is, of course, subjective), but I think we’re looking at an average of about a +5.7 rORTG against teams I’d regard as extra-playoff-gear teams, in the years listed in the OP. That’s really good, of course, and is even a bit higher than those same regular season offenses for LeBron tended to be. But it’s not just out of this world either. For instance, we’d find a similar average from Jordan in those types of series’—I have him at a +5.9 rORTG on average against playoff-gear type of teams starting from 1988 onwards (exact number probably doesn’t matter too much, since I’m sure people could quibble back and forth on which teams should count—I tried to be fairly harsh on Jordan on what did and didn’t count, though). And if I looked at Magic or Nash or Steph, then I suspect they’d be similar or possibly even higher in this regard (though I genuinely don’t know).