Top 100 - Expected Titles (by SRS) vs Actual Titles

[tsherkin]

Was shaq's presence not "enabling it" when the lakers only posted a +7.8 PSRS in 2000? Was it not also enabling it in 2001? Shaq' was not able to defensively anchor a good defense the prior playoffs,a nd it was Kobe's minutes and production who went up when the lakers saw a 9 ppint psrs jump.

They were also starting what remained of Glen Rice and looked very different. Fisher wasn't starting, they had19 mpg of AC Green instead of Horace Grant, Fox took over for Rice, B Shaw and Ty Lue instead of large minutes from Ron Harper.

So examining the defense without looking at the large changes in the roster and starting lineup doesn't make huge sense to me. Kobe certainly played better in 2001 than in 2000, of course, but that had more to do with their offense than their defense. And again, the shift from the RS to the PS that year was also at least somewhat related to injuries.

Only looking at Kobe would be missing the point. They got younger and more athletic, Ho Grant helped, lots of stuff happened. Kobe also took a leap on O compared to the year before, for sure.

[colts18]

Was shaq's presence not "enabling it" when the lakers only posted a +7.8 PSRS in 2000? Was it not also enabling it in 2001? Shaq' was not able to defensively anchor a good defense the prior playoffs,a nd it was Kobe's minutes and production who went up when the lakers saw a 9 ppint psrs jump.

I keep seeing you harp on this Shaq's defense not being good in the 2000 playoffs point in multiple threads. I'm going to repeat this point because it's continually lost by the posters here who are into stats.

Team Defense =/ Individual Defense

I keep seeing posters say that a teams defense was bad therefore certain defenders, usually the center, played bad. That's not the case at all. When you factor the circumstances, you will that Shaq's defense was fine. The rest of the Lakers were not as good and they had a lot of bad luck on their side.

Free Throw Defense



As you can see in the image, the Lakers gave up the 2nd most Free Throws and had the bad luck of their opponents hitting 78% of their free throws, 5% above the average. Teams have zero control at all with how their opponents shoot free throws. You are making judgments based on complete luck that is out of Shaq's hands.

Now, fouling opponents should get dinged. Did Shaq contribute to that high free throw total?



As you can see, Shaq had the 2nd lowest fouling rate in the playoffs. In fact, his fouls went down from 2.9 per 36 in the RS to 2.4 per 36 in the playoffs. Blame the other players like Horry, Kobe, and Fox. Free throws alone cost the Lakers defense 3.5 points per 100 compared to the league average. That's a lot of points that has nothing to do with Shaq.

3 Point Defense


This is another case where luck factors in. It has been established that teams have very little control over their opponents 3 point shooting. They can prevent teams from shooting 3's, but once the 3 is shot, its all luck. As you seen in the previous image, the Lakers gave up an above average 3 point. The Lakers gave up 1 point per 100 alone based on 3 point luck.

Individual Defense

Shaq was playing elite individual Man Defense in the playoffs. All of his opponents fell off a cliff efficiency wise against Shaq.

Playoffs (regular season averages in parenthesis):
Divac: 11.2 PPG, 35.7 FG%, 423 TS% (12.3 PPG, 50.3 FG%, .552 TS%)
Longley: 5.2 PPG, 37.1 FG%, .330 TS% (6.3 PPG, 44.6 FG%, .512 TS%)
Sabonis: 8.3 PPG, 38.2 FG%, 22.2 3P%, .471 TS% (11.8 PPG, 50.5 FG%, 36.8 3P%, .568 TS%)
Smits: 10 PPG, 46.6 FG%, .495 TS% (12.9 PPG, 48.4 FG%, .518 TS%)
Average dropoff: 2.2 PPG, -9.3 FG%, -10.8 TS%