Induction Vote 1: Bob Pettit
Alright so I've dug a bit more deeply into Pettit's data with the concerns I've seen people bring up - which I think are good to be brought up.
1. Pettit's data goes down in the playoffs. Some of it yes, but I think it's important to focus on prime when looking at averages. Pettit played 9 years in the playoffs, The 1st, 8th & 9th are disappointing statistically to varying degrees. He's got a middle 6 years year chunk where I think he looks quite solid. One can understandably scoff at me praising a mere 6 post-seasons, but aside from the fact that he did play more regular seasons than post-seasons, longevity is a different matter than prime.
2. As far as I can tell his RWOWY numbers that look good but not outlier are based on very little "without". So I think what's happening here is that because the team didn't get great right when he showed up, but did take a leap at another point with various new arrivals, he gets knocked form the start, and then limited as time goes by because the club go some nice new talent as Pettit aged out.
3. The two main guys with this - Cliff Hagan at the start and Zelmo Beaty at the end - were outstanding players who I think deserve strong consideration as Top 100 contenders, but I don't have any serious debate about which of these guys did the most for the Hawks.
4. With regards to the use of Pettit's big games to counteract his averages data, this resonates with me too, though I understand why some would be frustrated by this. I think part of the thing is that I don't see the Hawks as being a team that tended to disappoint in the playoffs. A guy can't make up for a bunch of upset losses in which he played bad by showing up big sometimes...but on the whole I don't really see Pettit as a guy who needs to "make up for" anything. He was the fulcrum of a very successful contending team for a long time, and sometimes he scaled to clearly dizzying heights.
5. It also matters specifically with regards to Hagan. If I felt like Hagan was the clear cut best player during the peak of their playoff success, that would absolutely hurt how I saw Pettit, but Pettit's performance in the finals just make me feel comfortable saying that.
Induction Vote 2: Walt FrazierClyde glides right in and knocks Pippen off my ballot.
Once again you can see me being a bit less concerned with longevity than many. I think what Frazier did in his prime is just considerably more of a two-way standout thing than you see if you look at his accolades and box score volume. An efficient volume scorer who is a star passer in a read & react system, and is more celebrated for his defense than his offense, while being the rock on which the closest thing to a dynasty in that era relied upon. It's a big deal to me.
Nomination Vote 1: John Havlicek
So, I haven't been able to get Hondo off my mind. I think I'm guilty of letting my simplifying year-by-year ranking process influence me too much. The main point of comparison here is Scottie Pippen, who ended up scoring considerably higher than Havlicek in that study. Of course maybe the scoring itself is particularly wrong there, but realistically even if it isn't, I can't really say that I think it's clear that Pippen was better than Havlicek prime-per-prime. Pippen's got an argument, and Havlicek does too.
And then there is the longevity to consider. As I've said above, I believe I weigh longevity less than most here, but in particular comparisons it becomes hard to dismiss. Havlicek's career can be characterized as having his prime begin in a Pippen-like role, and then at around the time Pippen's injuries started really taking their roll, Havlicek up'ed his scoring primacy and arguably led a team to two championship.
Honestly, as I think about Havlicek more, he may jump some guys in the Nomination pool that I previously supported over him.
Nomination Vote 2: Manu GinobiliYup, there I go. Manu's my next man.
Now as I've said, I'm less fixed on where exactly Ginobili is than I am feeling compelled to spread the gospel on the guy. I'm not purposefully doing that early - but it's possible I'll end up raising someone else above him before all is said and done here.
I quote my posts from the '04-05 thread before, and it's not just a coincidence they come from there. As I was going back through the years evaluating POY, I ended up siding with Ginobili at #1. This actually shocked me, and it's incredibly funny talking about it here, given that I was first compelled to post at RealGM during that same season to argue for Steve Nash's MVP worthiness and that Nash has since become my all-time favorite player. I like Ginobili, but Nash is the one who I truly fear having bias for. Perhaps I overcompensate, but in the past my '04-05 POY considerations were really about Nash vs Duncan.
To understand how I got there logically:
1. I think that Ginobili impacts with the best of 'em per minute and is typically held back in total impact by his limited minutes.
2. When a player's lack of minutes seems clearly to have held the team back meaningfully - like keeping team from chip - it's easy to justify knocking him harshly for the lack.
3. But when the team wins the title, and does so on the back of how he plays when he does play, I need to seriously ask myself where the minute threshold is that would have been "enough" to be the most valuable player.
4. And so, in my analysis, I would say that Ginobili would be my pick for both the WC MVP & Finals MVP.
5. This is happening in a season where there Ginobili leads the league in +/- by a significant margin:
Ginobili +844
Duncan +765
Nash +728
6. Speaking today, I now believe with confidence pace & space is a just plain superior way to play to win, and Ginobili was the guy driving the pace (+5.5 Pace On/Off in the playoffs) and the space (made more 3's than any other Spur), which I think was likely critical to their success against the Suns in particular.
Without elaborating on Ginobili vs Duncan & Ginobili vs Nash specifically at this time, I'll just say:
I see compelling arguments for Ginobili against each of them, and I struggle to use minutes to negate them.
Okay then zooming out, I see Ginobili as a guy who at his best was really capable of being the top basketball player in the league. He's held back some due to his limited minutes...but he also shows a remarkable tendency to level up his impact in the playoffs, and in particular deep in the playoffs.
And when the Spurs won titles in the 2000s, it always coincided with Ginobili seeming to go particularly nuts with his impact. All 4 of those chips, Ginobili had the best team +/- - and for perspective with the data we have, we don't have any other player more than twice. (Though we do have Michael Jordan twice, during his final two chips, which bodes exceptionally well for what we may find when we get access to earlier data.)
I'm honestly not sure if there's any other player remotely like Ginobili on this front - demonstrating this level of deep playoff impact dominance, while not being something like a GOAT candidate.
Okay, imma stop there. I hope my plea doesn't end up making folks recoil. I'm less concerned with convincing people right now that they should Nominate Ginobili, and more hopeful they'll just chew on their assessment of the guy. I think we have some significant things to learn about basketball, and basketball analysis, by understanding the the time of the Argentine.