Post#48 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Sun Oct 15, 2023 5:10 am
Vote: Kawhi Leonard
I think he is the highest peak on the current ballot and, despite his injury/availability issues, I think he's shown consistent impact over multiple contexts over a decade to warrant being voted in at this point.
His WS/48 and BPM in both RS and PO are consistently outstanding, even eye-popping in some instances. I think Frazier is the only one on the current ballot who comes anywhere close - I sorely wish we had BPM for Frazier's whole career so there could be a fairer comparison.
The multiple contexts thing stands out to me.
He went to two Finals and won a ring as part of an ensemble with Duncan/Manu/Parker in 13 and 14, and as a previous poster pointed out, was statistically the best player on the 14 Spurs.
In 16-17, in the Spurs' first post-Duncan year, Kawhi led the team as the undisputed #1 with LMA as his #2, and Manu/Parker on their last legs, to 61 wins, a 7.13 SRS, and +7.6 Net Rtg. He led the team in both WS/48 and BPM by wide margins in both the RS and the PO. That team was a legitimate contender before Kawhi went down in the GS series. I suppose detractors would point out that the Spurs won the last game against the Rockets by 39 without Kawhi but, it's one game.
He gets to Toronto, he has that magical year, putting an already good time over the top and leading them to the title, again leading the team in both WS/48 and BPM in both the RS and PO.
People look down on his Clippers' tenure because of the load management and playoff failures, but the impact has still been there.
In 19-20, he played 57 out of 72 games in the COVID season. The Clippers were 41-16 in those games, and only 8-7 without him. Ivica Zubac somehow led the team in WS/48 in the RS, but Kawhi as at #2, and he led in BPM and in both categories in the playoffs. That Nuggets series in the bubble was admittedly a low-point for the whole team.
In 20-21, he played 52 games. The Clippers were 36-16 with him, 11-9 without. Again, Kawhi leads team the team in WS/48 and BPM in RS and PO(excepting Ibaka in the playoffs due to a tiny 18 minute sample size). They were tied at 2-2 vs the Jazz when Kawhi went down, and I recall plenty of people thinking the Clippers could go at least the Finals if not win it if they stayed healthy, and I think the fact that they still got to the WCF and took two games off the Suns without Kawhi reinforces that idea.
In 22-23, he played 52 games. The Clippers were 33-19 with him, 11-19 without. Once again, he leads in WS/48 and BPM in RS and PS(though admittedly small 2-game sample in the playoffs).
Now, I realize Paul George also missed time in those seasons, and that may be making these WOWY numbers look deceptive, particularly that 11-19 without in 22-23. So the numbers might come out different in a more in-depth analysis, and I haven't even begun to try to calculate SRS differences with Kawhi vs without. But the general point is that Kawhi has consistently had superstar impact in multiple contexts for a decade now.
Yes, he has an injury/availability issue - if he didn't, he'd probably be in the top 25 here. But I can't comfortably see him outside the top 35 even with those issues.
A couple of final notes:
1. With regard to timing of his offensive and defensive peaks - it's true that his defensive peak came before his offensive peak, but when that argument is made, it makes it sounds like he was no longer and effective defender when at his offensive peak. His highest impact defense was in San Antonio, but I certainly think he was still a plus/positive defender in Toronto and LAC, and that paired with his peak-level offense is still a very powerful combination.
2. Someone argued that Kawhi wasn't a good locker room presence or teammate or something to that effect. The only time I see that being true was maybe with the ugliness in San Antonio in 17-18.
I was actually always impressed with how he handled himself in Toronto. The whole world knew he never wanted to be traded there. But he never made a stink publicly, he played hard, he did the job, he won a title, and then when his contract expired he left. I've always that there was something strikingly professional about how he handled that.
As for the Clippers...I guess there have been rumblings that the privileges he's given regarding his load management and his living in San Diego have rubbed some of his teammates the wrong way. Even if that is true, that is on the team for allowing a player special privileges. He's not doing anything he doesn't have permission to do.
Kawhi seems like he is pretty introverted and isolated, but I don't know if that by itself makes one a bad teammate.
Secondary Vote: Walt Frazier
Elite two-way player who was the #1/#1A on a team that went to three finals and won two rings. Really good box stats all around. Doc's writeup is great and goes into more depth.
Nomination: Rick Barry
Rick Barry was the #1 on a championship team and three Finals teams(including his ABA years here) and it's difficult for me to look past that. Even if I don't look at his ABA years, he won the ring as the #1 in 1975. He was not a terribly efficient scorer, particularly for his volume(outside of some extreme outlier high efficiency in the early ABA), but he managed to be a bit above average in his prime years while still being a solid playmaker and rebounder.
Secondary Nomination: Elgin Baylor
Baylor had the same lukewarm efficiency issues as Barry, but he was a high volume scorer who could score in a variety of ways, and was an elite rebounder. He is unquestionably one of the most important players in the league's history due to being one of its first stars of color(along with Russell, Wilt, and Oscar) and for really being the first player of his kind - a big, athletic wing who played above the rim; the common notion is that he was Dr. J before Dr. J.
The thing that keeps me from putting him above Barry is that when Baylor and West played together all those years, West consistently, statistically speaking, always looked like the clear #1 - much more efficient a scorer, better playmaker, better defender. Barry proved he could win it all as #1, and even though Baylor went to a bunch of Finals, I don't know that anyone, looking back now, considers him the #1.
