RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #49 (Dwight Howard)

Moderators: Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal

Owly
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,614
And1: 3,132
Joined: Mar 12, 2010

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #49 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/3/2023) 

Post#41 » by Owly » Sun Dec 3, 2023 2:08 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:Vote 1 - Dwight Howard
Vote 2 - Bob Lanier 
Nomination 1 - George Gervin
Nomination 2 - Willis Reed

I feel strongly that Dwight peaked as an MVP level player in 2011. His prime isn't as long as I'd like, but was the centerpiece of some very good teams in Orlando and a deserving multi-time DPOY winner. While not the same player post back surgery, he still had some good years in Houston. Had a small role in the lakers' 2020 title run, but still a positive late career note for him.

Kinda feel like Gervin is slipping through the cracks at this point.

Even though his playoff success leaves something to be desired, he was still an impressive playoff performer, putting up the following from '75-'83 (65 games):

28.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 56% TS, 113 ORtg 

In '79, the spurs faced the defending champion bullets in the ECF, with a heartbreaking 2 pt game 7 loss. Gervin scored 42 pts in the game, including 24 in the 2nd half. The spurs and bullets ranked 1st and 2nd in SRS respectively that season.

In '82, the spurs made a mid season trade for talented scorer Mike Mitchell. He would only appear in 57 games for the spurs, and gervin still led the spurs to the 7th best SRS in the league. They would fall to the eventual NBA champion lakers (4th in SRS) in the WCF.

In '83, the spurs (6th in SRS) would again fall to the lakers (3rd in SRS) in the WCF. Gervin and Mitchell both had solid performances in the post season that year, but simply weren't enough for a deep lakers roster that featured magic, kareem, nixon, wilkes, mcadoo and cooper.

Had gervin and gilmore had more time together during each other's primes, i'm sure both would have helped each other to further playoff success.

Doesn't necessarily matter to big picture but as before would note in limited minutes Brewer (probably the main piece sent out in acquiring Mitchell) was highly productive in limited minutes.

As before would tend to dispute '83 Gervin (and to a lesser extent Mitchell, to the extent he's being highlighted) as that solid for '83 playoffs (or versus LA, in which Mitchell was - at first glance - better than versus Denver), at least on the production side. Will link Reference as a first glance Reference point for others to decide:
http://bkref.com/pi/shareit/On4Fa
https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/1983-nba-western-conference-finals-spurs-vs-lakers.html
penbeast0
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Posts: 30,254
And1: 9,830
Joined: Aug 14, 2004
Location: South Florida
 

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #49 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/3/2023) 

Post#42 » by penbeast0 » Sun Dec 3, 2023 3:43 pm

Vote: Jimmy Butler: Two way player with strong playoff performances and leadership. Has had some run-ins with other players but they seem to be about the other players not putting in the work or defense.

[i]Alt: Joel Embiid Best of the bigs on both ends and in a tougher era.


Nominate: Bobby Jones. More than a decade of straight 1st team All-Defense votes combined with high efficiency, though not high volume scoring, and good playmaking. Not a great rebounder for his position but could play 2-5 at either end. Probably the greatest glue guy in NBA history and in his time where he was the best player on his team (75 and 76 for example), his team was the best in the league both years though they came up short in the playoffs. Probably too early but haven't been convinced of anyone else here.

Alt: Pau Gasol: Even without international play, taking the Lakers to those titles with Kobe is impressive and a strong #2 which I prefer to a bad #1.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
AEnigma
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,130
And1: 5,974
Joined: Jul 24, 2022

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #49 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/3/2023) 

Post#43 » by AEnigma » Sun Dec 3, 2023 4:47 pm

penbeast0 wrote:What's the case for Gervin over Dantley (my go to benchmark for pure scorers that add almost nothing else)?

Better range, better volume, better longevity, better at fitting within the flow of an offence… could conceivably try to argue better defence… clearly more successful, better regarded by contemporaries, higher MVP shares, more all-NBAs, more all-stars, etc.

Focusing on the skillset stuff, I do feel like Gervin took the Spurs to heights that Dantley would not have if Dantley had been the one playing next to Silas and Mitchell and Gilmore. Kenon could have fit next to him, and maybe Paultz, but the others I think would see more of a Pistons or Lakers level of diminishing returns.
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,168
And1: 22,173
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #49 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/3/2023) 

Post#44 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Dec 3, 2023 6:22 pm

Induction Vote 1:

Jimmy - 2 (trex, beast)
Dwight - 6 (Joao, trelos, Samurai, HBK, OSNB, Clyde)
Lanier - 3 (AEnigma, iggy, LA Bird)
Green - 2 (Ohayo, Doc)

No majority. Going to Vote 2 between Dwight & Lanier:

Dwight - (none)
Lanier - (trex)
neither - (beast, Ohayo, Doc)

Dwight Howard 6, Bob Lanier 4

Dwight Howard is Inducted at #49.

Image

Nomination Vote 1:

Payton - 4 (trex, AEnigma, iggy, LA Bird)
Gasol - 1 (Joao)
Wallace - 1 (trelos)
Arizin - 2 (Samurai, Doc)
Walton - 1 (HBK)
Davies - 1 (Ohayo)
Gervin - 2 (OSNB, Clyde)
beast - 1 (Bobby)

No majority. Going Vote 2 between Payton, Arizin & Gervin:

Payton - 0 (none)
Arizin - 0 (none)
Gervin - 0 (none)
none- 4 (Joao, trelos, HBK, beast)

Gary Payton, Paul Arizin 2, George Gervin 2

Gary Payton is added to Nominee list.

Image
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
WintaSoldier1
Junior
Posts: 275
And1: 161
Joined: Mar 18, 2022
 

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #49 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/3/2023) 

Post#45 » by WintaSoldier1 » Sun Dec 3, 2023 6:23 pm

Dwight wins!!!!
AEnigma
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,130
And1: 5,974
Joined: Jul 24, 2022

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #49 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/3/2023) 

Post#46 » by AEnigma » Sun Dec 3, 2023 7:13 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Nomination Vote 1:

Payton - 4 (trex, AEnigma, iggy, LA Bird)
Gasol - 1 (Joao)
Wallace - 1 (trelos)
Arizin - 2 (Samurai, Doc)
Walton - 1 (HBK)
Davies - 1 (Ohayo)
Gervin - 2 (OSNB, Clyde)
beast - 1 (Bobby)

No majority. Going Vote 2 between Payton, Arizin & Gervin:

Payton - 0 (none)
Arizin - 0 (none)
Gervin - 4 (Joao, trelos, HBK, beast)

Gary Payton, Paul Arizin 2, George Gervin 2

Gary Payton is added to Nominee list.

:confused:

I think you just meant to write “None” when you listed those four names as Gervin’s alternate. Guessing Gervin did not make up the two vote gap with alternates either, but worth reviewing to make sure.
User avatar
OldSchoolNoBull
General Manager
Posts: 9,069
And1: 4,460
Joined: Jun 27, 2003
Location: Ohio
 

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #49 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/3/2023) 

Post#47 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Mon Dec 4, 2023 11:25 pm

Owly wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:It's honestly getting silly that Gervin hasn't been nominated yet. He was inducted #37 in 2020 and we're about to cross #50 and he's not nominated yet. This is a fairly shocking drop. He's at minimum a top 10 SG all time. How far is he going to fall?

As ever your choice but since the language suggests you feel firmly on it I'll engage with some notes

1) make the case. More than just where he was last time ... (we could pump out the same list each year the core value is in the discussion). What did people get right about him then and miss this time around?

2) '20 rank of 37 probably looks like the real terms high watermark for Gervin on these projects (after accounting for increased competitive pool).

3) As implied in the above some absolute rank drop is to be expected as new players come in. This will exaggerate real terms drops and mask real-terms climbs at the margins.

4) We're at a point where these things are really close. And a "rank" isn't a consistent unit of measure. So it's hard to know what that rank "drop" really means.

5) These "jumps" do happen (cf point 4), though perhaps less so recently than between earlier lists. Cousy pretty consistently so., Dominique, Dantley, Cunningham, Parish, DJ, Schayes, Nance, Billups, Monroe, Mar. Johnson, Walton; McGrady, KJ, Unseld, King, Archibald (Dumars and Je. Lucas on earlier lists). Reasons will vary and with that whether it is something that will be regressed back from or the setting of a new normal will vary.


He was between 32 and 41 on every list prior to this, and now we're in the 50s and he's not nominated yet. You're right, in an absolute sense, the rankings don't matter, things change, opinions change, new players come along, etc, but it's still a note-worthy drop.

I do get why people would be skeptical, given his lack of playoff success and given that his teams weren't all that good in the RS, but he had a stretch where had four straight 200+ TS Adds, and that doesn't happen very often, particularly for guards. I just think we should be talking about him more is all.

penbeast0 wrote:What's the case for Gervin over Dantley (my go to benchmark for pure scorers that add almost nothing else)?


That's a great question, and it does put things in context because...I don't have a good argument for Gervin over Dantley. The one thing I'd say is that Dantley was traded away from good situations multiple times in his career despite good individual play, so you might make some kind of better-teammate argument for Gervin, but others may not agree about that.

Return to Player Comparisons