RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Isiah Thomas)

[iggymcfrack]

Vote: Pau Gasol
31st all-time in career WS, 32nd all-time in career VORP, and has postseason numbers that greatly outpace his regular season numbers, both box and impact. Was an integral part of 2 championship teams, ranging between a #2 and a 1b. Just a very complete resume that no one else can match at this point.

[trex_8063]

Is this a consistent argument you make? Giannis for example hasn't averaged 35 mpg since 2018, Embiid has never averaged that much, nor has Jokic. Jones's minutes were lower than theirs were, though, so my counter isn't that strong.

Hmm. Well I would say this also lacks some teeth because these guys are also leaps/bounds/several tiers (stratospheres) separate as offensive players.

But further, there are notable era differences to account for. The game is so much more spread out by efficient use of the 3pt line, that defenders have to cover a great deal more ground EACH AND EVERY possession.
I wish I could find a link to the work, but somebody once tracked steps taken per defensive possession (can’t remember if it was ALL defenders or only perimeter players), comparing games from the early 10s to the mid-80s, iirc. He found defenders were taking something like 43% more steps in the 10s.

That generates fatigue at a faster rate. This has likely become even more relevant in recent years. Load management has also become more of a thing.

Consequently, NO ONE has averaged as much as 39 mpg in any of the last 11 seasons. THAT is the league environment in which the guys you mention are averaging 32-34 (or so) mpg.

Jones maxed out (before working a sixth man role) at <35 mpg in an era were the league leaders avg 42-44 mpg. And this was because of physical limitations (asthma). I think it’s conceivable he’d max out around 28-30 mpg today, simply being incapable of effectively playing more.

Whereas, as mentioned, Marion averaged 39.1 over a 9-year prime, which took place just barely before the time-frame mentioned above (he was four times in the league’s top 9 [twice top 3]). Those effects (covering more ground) were beginning to be a factor at that time.

[Doctor MJ]

Is this a consistent argument you make? Giannis for example hasn't averaged 35 mpg since 2018, Embiid has never averaged that much, nor has Jokic. Jones's minutes were lower than theirs were, though, so my counter isn't that strong.

Hmm. Well I would say this also lacks some teeth because these guys are also leaps/bounds/several tiers (stratospheres) separate as offensive players.

But further, there are notable era differences to account for. The game is so much more spread out by efficient use of the 3pt line, that defenders have to cover a great deal more ground EACH AND EVERY possession.
I wish I could find a link to the work, but somebody once tracked steps taken per defensive possession (can’t remember if it was ALL defenders or only perimeter players), comparing games from the early 10s to the mid-80s, iirc. He found defenders were taking something like 43% more steps in the 10s.

That generates fatigue at a faster rate. This has likely become even more relevant in recent years. Load management has also become more of a thing.

Consequently, NO ONE has averaged as much as 39 mpg in any of the last 11 seasons. THAT is the league environment in which the guys you mention are averaging 32-34 (or so) mpg.

Jones maxed out (before working a sixth man role) at <35 mpg in an era were the league leaders avg 42-44 mpg. And this was because of physical limitations (asthma). I think it’s conceivable he’d max out around 28-30 mpg today, simply being incapable of effectively playing more.

Whereas, as mentioned, Marion averaged 39.1 over a 9-year prime, which took place just barely before the time-frame mentioned above (he was four times in the league’s top 9 [twice top 3]). Those effects (covering more ground) were beginning to be a factor at that time.

So I think this gets to a larger trend we’re still reckoning with: As basketball has evolved, the players play less but play harder.

What does this do to a player’s total impact?

If it changes the total impact in a way where the top players from one era contribute more than other eras, should that be normalized for?

And if we are normalizing, what to do with players who played more like modern players? What if we eventually get to a point where everyone plays Bobby Jones minutes on Bobby Jones intensity?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[OldSchoolNoBull]

Induction Vote #1: Isiah Thomas

Impacted the the game on both sides of the court via playmaking/running the offense and defense, was consistently a high-level playoff performer based on BPM, and was a great leader of a team that went to five ECFs, three Finals, and won back-to-back titles, winning a Finals MVP in 1990.

[OhayoKD]

Spoiler:

Gervin over Thurmond seems like plain scoring bias to me. 4 scoring titles is great but if there was an annual title awarded for best man defender in the league, Thurmond would have won a lot more than 4. So why is Gervin's one dimensional scoring held in much higher regard than Thurmond's man defense? And if your answer is that offense is more important than defense in basketball, be my guest and look at any measure of overall two-way impact for these two players.

Thurmond wins in a clean sweep across all of ElGee's WOWY variations:
Prime WOWYR: 5.0 vs 2.1
Career WOWYR: 5.1 vs 3.3
Scaled WOWYR: 4.6 vs 1.9
Alt Scaled WOWYR: 4.5 vs 2.9
10year Scaled GPM: 4.7 vs 0.0

Thurmond is near MVP-level in Moonbeam's RWOWY whereas Gervin hovers around 60-70th percentile, one of the lowest marks of any all timer:



Gervin was undeniably an incredible scorer but his impact on team success, at least from available data, is lacking. And that is concerning for a player who only won 3 playoff series their entire career. I know team success is dependent on teammate quality so if you aren't winning a lot, it's fine if there is some evidence of impact. But with Gervin we get neither the success nor the lift.

What is Alt Scaled?

https://backpicks.com/2017/11/17/part-iv-historical-impact-multiple-wowyr-studies/

Additionally, I’ve added an alternative version of WOWYR to the table below that uses 20 minutes per game as a cutoff for qualifying players — a version that was slightly worse at predicting lineup results than the prime WOWYR published in Part III, but contained enough variability to throw into the mix.

WOWYR in general should be avoided as much as possible. Per-season sample is much smaller and adjustments can very easily distort things due to that sample. We have large samples for thurmond, I'd just use those

[OhayoKD]

Vote

1. Thurmond


-> Superstar impact based on what we have
-> Impressive postseason performances with and without Rick Barry
-> Best-in-league calibre defender


Alternate

2. Pau Gasol

[LA Bird]

Vote 1: Nate Thurmond
Vote 2: Isiah Thomas

• MVP of the Warriors over Barry and, when healthy, was arguably the more impactful player over their overlapped primes. Barry had some weak prime WOWY numbers in 70/71 (55-56 with, 29-28 without) that get overlooked because it was in the ABA. In contrast, Thurmond had 10+ SRS WOWY impact in 67/68 similar to peak Walton.
• GOAT man defender in the low post and shut down Wilt, Kareem in their peak regular seasons (67 Wilt: 24 ppg on 64% TS -> 18 ppg on 50% TS. 72 Kareem: 35 ppg on 60% TS -> 23 ppg on 43% TS).
• Locked up Kareem for a second consecutive playoffs in 73 (23 ppg on 45% TS) en route to a upset which was Kareem's only loss to a non-title team in a 7 game series until 86.

WOWYR in general should be avoided as much as possible. Per-season sample is much smaller and adjustments can very easily distort things due to that sample. We have large samples for thurmond, I'd just use those

Agreed but we don't have large raw WOWY samples for Gervin so I had to use WOWYR (and RWOWY) to make a direct comparison.

[Doctor MJ]

Induction Vote 1: Isiah Thomas
Induction Vote 2: George Gervin

Finding it really hard to decide and so going with the order I had them in pre-project.

I want to say specifically that that the Thurmond folks have made some great arguments and I'm very tempted to put him over Gervin...but then I'm also tempted to put Reed & Zo over Thurmond. That confusion is leaving me a bit stuck at this moment.

[Doctor MJ]

Induction Vote 1:

Gervin - 3 (Clyde, beast, Samurai)
Isiah - 4 (AEnigma, trelos, OSNB, Doc)
Reed - 1 (HBK)
Thurmond - 3 (hcl, Ohayo, LA Bird)
Gasol - 2 (trex, iggy)

No majority going to Vote 2 between Gervin, Isiah & Thurmond.

Gervin - 0 (none)
Isiah - 1 (trex)
Thurmond - 0 (none)
none - 2 (HBK, iggy)

Isiah 5, Gervin 3, Thurmond 3

Isiah Thomas is Inducted at #58.

[tsherkin]

Warms my heart to see Isiah almost out of the top 60. Little sad neither Gervin nor Thurmond managed to sneak in ahead of him. xD