Both got out of their first teams to be the alpha after rookie contract. Brunson is at a better situation winning a lot of games. Can he have a better career than Harden?
Brunson: seasons at NYK
1st: 24.0p/3.5r/6.2a/2.1to
2nd: 26.8p/3.8r/6.5a/2.3to
Harden: seasons at HOU
1st: 25.9p/4.9r/5.8a/3.8to
2nd: 25.4p/4.7r/6.1a/3.6to
Brunson vs. Harden
Moderators: Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal
Brunson vs. Harden
-
dygaction
- General Manager
- Posts: 7,609
- And1: 4,907
- Joined: Sep 20, 2015
-
Re: Brunson vs. Harden
-
LukaTheGOAT
- Analyst
- Posts: 3,260
- And1: 2,970
- Joined: Dec 25, 2019
-
Re: Brunson vs. Harden
Not quite in my opinion.
I think Harden's scoring for his league environment was more valuable, and I also just think of his as a better passer.
Not including his recent 40 point game:
2024 Brunson
27.9 pts per 75 (rTS% of 1.9%)
ScoreVal-0.7
2014 Harden
IA 25.7 pts per 75 (rTS% of 7.7%)
ScoreVal-1.4
Harden I believe got notable more separation from the league as a scorer than Brunson, because he was so efficient. Harden averaged about 8.9 FTA per 75 possessions. Brunson is at about 6.3 per 75. Harden I think was a bigger threat to put pressure on the rim than Bruson, and arguably had better deceleration to keep defenders off-balance
It also is just rare for anyone to make a leap like Harden did, so even if they were on the same footing, you probably shouldn’t bet on it. Harden had more size and burst to assist in his future endeavors, that Brunson doesn’t quite have (Brunson is quite quick though). The size and extra burst paid dividends at the rim, where Harden was better at getting to and finishing than current Brunson as well. 2014
Harden was in the 61st percentile in finishing at the rim and 69th percentile in rim frequency.
Brunson is in the 9th percentile in finish at the rim and 51st percentile in rim frequency.
Brunson does not generate as many easy scoring opportunities like Harden does with rim-attacks and free-throws.
Brunson is good in isolation, because he has just a deep bag of tricks. However, Harden might be the greatest isolation player ever. Brunson is in the mold of Harden in terms of their affinity for isolation play, but projecting Brunson to get to that level (which he probably would need to be close to be near Harden level), isn’t fair.
Then there is the passing/playmaking side of things. To me Harden has more natural intuition as a passer. I think his decision-making against traps was better. I think he was also able to find more high-value passing opportunities when they presented themselves.
2014 Harden had a high-value assist percentage (3+layups) in the 98th percentile for that time.
2024 Brunson has a high-value assist percentage in the 75th percentile.
Yes, Brunson's turnovers are a bit lower per game, but I think part of that is him not being as aggressive of a passer, and therefore less likely to commit as many turnovers. However, I think history shows that higher turnover PGs often lead the best offenses, because they are attempting those riskier passes and the payoffs are worth. I think you see this in the difference between Harden’s high-value assist percentage vs Brunson.
I will say I think Brunson is a better defender than 2014 Harden, and while I don’t think that swings the scales in his favor here, it is worth bringing up. I don’t really think Brunson can/will get much better as a defender than he current is because of physical tools, but he does compete more than 2014 Harden. 2014 Harden was a worse defender, but still grades out a more valuable overall player by the various impact metrics (and I do think Harden improved a some defensively over time which goes back to him having more upside, sometimes additional size and length just helps a lot).
Overall,
2024 Brunson
EPM-4.9
Backpicks BPM-4.7
LEBRON-2.11
2014 Harden
EPM-5.3
Backpicks BPM-5.3
LEBRON-4.75
Harden generally grades out better in the general impact metrics. Even an all-in-one number like Darko Plus-Minus, which attempts to incorporate some projection in the future has 14 Harden ahead.
14 Harden: 4.76
24 Brunson: 2.94
The final thing to note is the age difference. They are probably in different stages in their development cycles. 2013 and 2014, were Harden’s age 23 and 24 seasons, respectively. 2023 and 2024 Brunson are 26 and 27 seasons respectively. There are always exceptions, but we would not expect as much growth typically from a 27 year old going forward as we do a 24 year old.
I think Harden's scoring for his league environment was more valuable, and I also just think of his as a better passer.
Not including his recent 40 point game:
2024 Brunson
27.9 pts per 75 (rTS% of 1.9%)
ScoreVal-0.7
2014 Harden
IA 25.7 pts per 75 (rTS% of 7.7%)
ScoreVal-1.4
Harden I believe got notable more separation from the league as a scorer than Brunson, because he was so efficient. Harden averaged about 8.9 FTA per 75 possessions. Brunson is at about 6.3 per 75. Harden I think was a bigger threat to put pressure on the rim than Bruson, and arguably had better deceleration to keep defenders off-balance
It also is just rare for anyone to make a leap like Harden did, so even if they were on the same footing, you probably shouldn’t bet on it. Harden had more size and burst to assist in his future endeavors, that Brunson doesn’t quite have (Brunson is quite quick though). The size and extra burst paid dividends at the rim, where Harden was better at getting to and finishing than current Brunson as well. 2014
Harden was in the 61st percentile in finishing at the rim and 69th percentile in rim frequency.
Brunson is in the 9th percentile in finish at the rim and 51st percentile in rim frequency.
Brunson does not generate as many easy scoring opportunities like Harden does with rim-attacks and free-throws.
Brunson is good in isolation, because he has just a deep bag of tricks. However, Harden might be the greatest isolation player ever. Brunson is in the mold of Harden in terms of their affinity for isolation play, but projecting Brunson to get to that level (which he probably would need to be close to be near Harden level), isn’t fair.
Then there is the passing/playmaking side of things. To me Harden has more natural intuition as a passer. I think his decision-making against traps was better. I think he was also able to find more high-value passing opportunities when they presented themselves.
2014 Harden had a high-value assist percentage (3+layups) in the 98th percentile for that time.
2024 Brunson has a high-value assist percentage in the 75th percentile.
Yes, Brunson's turnovers are a bit lower per game, but I think part of that is him not being as aggressive of a passer, and therefore less likely to commit as many turnovers. However, I think history shows that higher turnover PGs often lead the best offenses, because they are attempting those riskier passes and the payoffs are worth. I think you see this in the difference between Harden’s high-value assist percentage vs Brunson.
I will say I think Brunson is a better defender than 2014 Harden, and while I don’t think that swings the scales in his favor here, it is worth bringing up. I don’t really think Brunson can/will get much better as a defender than he current is because of physical tools, but he does compete more than 2014 Harden. 2014 Harden was a worse defender, but still grades out a more valuable overall player by the various impact metrics (and I do think Harden improved a some defensively over time which goes back to him having more upside, sometimes additional size and length just helps a lot).
Overall,
2024 Brunson
EPM-4.9
Backpicks BPM-4.7
LEBRON-2.11
2014 Harden
EPM-5.3
Backpicks BPM-5.3
LEBRON-4.75
Harden generally grades out better in the general impact metrics. Even an all-in-one number like Darko Plus-Minus, which attempts to incorporate some projection in the future has 14 Harden ahead.
14 Harden: 4.76
24 Brunson: 2.94
The final thing to note is the age difference. They are probably in different stages in their development cycles. 2013 and 2014, were Harden’s age 23 and 24 seasons, respectively. 2023 and 2024 Brunson are 26 and 27 seasons respectively. There are always exceptions, but we would not expect as much growth typically from a 27 year old going forward as we do a 24 year old.
Re: Brunson vs. Harden
-
dygaction
- General Manager
- Posts: 7,609
- And1: 4,907
- Joined: Sep 20, 2015
-
Re: Brunson vs. Harden
LukaTheGOAT wrote:Not quite in my opinion.
I think Harden's scoring for his league environment was more valuable, and I also just think of his as a better passer.
Not including his recent 40 point game:
2024 Brunson
27.9 pts per 75 (rTS% of 1.9%)
ScoreVal-0.7
2014 Harden
IA 25.7 pts per 75 (rTS% of 7.7%)
ScoreVal-1.4
Harden I believe got notable more separation from the league as a scorer than Brunson, because he was so efficient. Harden averaged about 8.9 FTA per 75 possessions. Brunson is at about 6.3 per 75. Harden I think was a bigger threat to put pressure on the rim than Bruson, and arguably had better deceleration to keep defenders off-balance
It also is just rare for anyone to make a leap like Harden did, so even if they were on the same footing, you probably shouldn’t bet on it. Harden had more size and burst to assist in his future endeavors, that Brunson doesn’t quite have (Brunson is quite quick though). The size and extra burst paid dividends at the rim, where Harden was better at getting to and finishing than current Brunson as well. 2014
Harden was in the 61st percentile in finishing at the rim and 69th percentile in rim frequency.
Brunson is in the 9th percentile in finish at the rim and 51st percentile in rim frequency.
Brunson does not generate as many easy scoring opportunities like Harden does with rim-attacks and free-throws.
Brunson is good in isolation, because he has just a deep bag of tricks. However, Harden might be the greatest isolation player ever. Brunson is in the mold of Harden in terms of their affinity for isolation play, but projecting Brunson to get to that level (which he probably would need to be close to be near Harden level), isn’t fair.
Then there is the passing/playmaking side of things. To me Harden has more natural intuition as a passer. I think his decision-making against traps was better. I think he was also able to find more high-value passing opportunities when they presented themselves.
2014 Harden had a high-value assist percentage (3+layups) in the 98th percentile for that time.
2024 Brunson has a high-value assist percentage in the 75th percentile.
Yes, Brunson's turnovers are a bit lower per game, but I think part of that is him not being as aggressive of a passer, and therefore less likely to commit as many turnovers. However, I think history shows that higher turnover PGs often lead the best offenses, because they are attempting those riskier passes and the payoffs are worth. I think you see this in the difference between Harden’s high-value assist percentage vs Brunson.
I will say I think Brunson is a better defender than 2014 Harden, and while I don’t think that swings the scales in his favor here, it is worth bringing up. I don’t really think Brunson can/will get much better as a defender than he current is because of physical tools, but he does compete more than 2014 Harden. 2014 Harden was a worse defender, but still grades out a more valuable overall player by the various impact metrics (and I do think Harden improved a some defensively over time which goes back to him having more upside, sometimes additional size and length just helps a lot).
Overall,
2024 Brunson
EPM-4.9
Backpicks BPM-4.7
LEBRON-2.11
2014 Harden
EPM-5.3
Backpicks BPM-5.3
LEBRON-4.75
Harden generally grades out better in the general impact metrics. Even an all-in-one number like Darko Plus-Minus, which attempts to incorporate some projection in the future has 14 Harden ahead.
14 Harden: 4.76
24 Brunson: 2.94
The final thing to note is the age difference. They are probably in different stages in their development cycles. 2013 and 2014, were Harden’s age 23 and 24 seasons, respectively. 2023 and 2024 Brunson are 26 and 27 seasons respectively. There are always exceptions, but we would not expect as much growth typically from a 27 year old going forward as we do a 24 year old.
Nicely done, especially pointing out the age-related factor.
Cuban let Nash walk away from Dirk, and now Brunson away from Luka. Hopefully both sides would be as successful like last time, with MVPs and Finals MVPs in the future of their career.