RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #75 (Damian Lillard)

[eminence]

Vote #1: Dennis Rodman

-'88-'98 as one of the best rebounders/defenders ever
-Consistently found his way onto winners
-Off court histrionics overrated in terms of how much they bothered his teams on court

Vote #2: Damian Lillard

-2nd tier offensive creator in the most offensive oriented era ever
-Has built himself up to solid longevity at this point
-Has a chance to shoot up these rankings if he/Giannis can put it together

Nomination #1: Bob Cousy

-Spent a half decade or so as the top on-ball guard (probably overall guard) in the league
-Bit of a pioneer in terms of ball dominance
-He wasn't the one powering the titles (at least the later ones, I think of him as a pretty solid contributor through at least '59), but he didn't screw them up either as folks often seem to worry about aging ball dominant players doing

Nomination #2: Kyle Lowry

-Scorer, just alright, but good to great in most every other way a guard can be
-I find some of his pre-Toronto years underrated, '11 in particular stands out to me as fringe all-star level
-Led some very solid Toronto teams, boohoo couldn't beat #1 on this list, team wins a title the only year they have a player clearly above him in the PO hierarchy

[OldSchoolNoBull]

Induction Vote #1: Adrian Dantley

Induction Vote #2: Dennis Rodman

I just don't love the choices right now. I can see the statistical arguments for both Dame and Gobert, and I just can't get excited about either of them in light of their glaring lack of playoff success. So I'm going with the one time Bad Boys teammates here.

Dantley is the most statistically eye-popping player on the ballot, and he wasn't just a bit player on the 87 and 88 Pistons - his efficiency and box composites are all strong.

As for Dennis, I'll just quote what I wrote when I nominated him:

...In the end, Rodman just won more. Less primacy of course, and he was surely lucky to play on great teams with star players and HOF coaches, but there have been other players who played on multiple great teams who didn't have such an impact, and playing winning basketball in multiple context matters. What we can say is this:

1. He is considered by many to be the pound-for-pound GOAT rebounder, having led the league in RPG for seven straight years(and TRB% for eight straight years).
2. He is considered by many to be one of the greatest defensive forwards ever, having won two DPOYS and being in the top ten DPOY voting ten times, as well as making the All-Defensive First Team seven times.
3. Between 1987 and 1998, he went to nine conference finals, six finals, and won five championships, starting for four of those championship teams.
4. He finished in the top 15 of MVP voting four times, and the top 10 once.
5. Narrative-wise, he was a key player on two ATG teams, and that's gonna carry some weight.
6. Given that most of his career took place pre-PBP, we don't have a lot of impact data, but we do have the following:

A. Via Squared, based on a sample of 45 games, Rodman had the third highest RAPM in the whole league, at 4.89, in 1990-91.
B. Via Squared, based on a sample of 10 games, Rodman has a 2.33 RAPM in 1992-93, his final year in Detroit.
C. Via Pollack, Rodman had a +8.7 on/off - 19th in the league - in 1993-94, his first year with the Spurs.
D. Via Pollack, Rodman had a +7.4 on/off, -29th in the league - in 1994-95, his second year with the Spurs.
E. Via Squared, based on a sample of 73 games, Rodman has a 1.38 RAPM in 1995-96
F. In JE's RS+PO RAPM set, Rodman was at 3.23 in 96-97 and 1.70 in 97-98.
G. Via BBRef, Rodman had +7.3 on/off in 96-97 and a -2.8 on/off in 97-98; for playoffs, it's -10.6 in 96-97 and +5.5 in 97-98.

So it's not super high, but it's consistently(with a couple of exceptions) good.

I would take special note that his two Spurs years sometimes tend to get lost between all of his accomplishments in Detroit and Chicago, but they shouldn't. He led the league in rebounding both years, had good on/off as evidenced above, and had one of his best playoff runs(looking at the box) in 1995(.166 WS/48, 1.2 BPM, 55.7% TS). I've always felt he was unfairly scapegoated for the 1995 WCF loss because of his behavior, but that loss really had little to do with Rodman and much more to do with Hakeem outplaying Robinson.

Devil's advocate - the Spurs didn't lose a single step after they traded Rodman to the Bulls, in terms of SRS and Net Rtg.

Nomination Vote #1: Allen Iverson

Nomination Vote #2: Sidney Moncrief

I am of two minds about Iverson, but it's hard to ignore the 2001 Finals run.

Even with the longevity issue, Moncrief seems, in some ways, like the most impressive of any of the players that have nomination votes right now.

[Owly]

Vote #1: Dennis Rodman

-'88-'98 as one of the best rebounders/defenders ever
-Consistently found his way onto winners
-Off court histrionics overrated in terms of how much they bothered his teams on court

Not opposed to Rodman but there's things to pick at here in terms of detail (for me at least)

On point 1 ... I think that should be 2 separate windows. They overlap and you can fudge the margins (for his size, playing SF, by normal standards 21.3 trb% (1991) is great ... it's lower than becomes the norm for him ... maybe one can argue his rebounding isn't getting much better so much as team intent on defensive rebounds (though that kind of sounds like a negative [for him] argument for his defensive rebounds as inflated latterly ... maybe all great productive rebounders are?). I'd feel more strongly that his ... I think both anecdotally and data-wise his commitment to D slipped later ... I'd say circa him leaving Detroit.

2 and 3 somewhat linked ... Detroit and SA made him available because of ... lets say personality stuff. And the thing is whilst I think more than most (or at least some people I've heard) I may be bullish on (at least '93 DR's) value to a poor team (see with/without that year ... a noisy measure but the gap large enough to see a signal there) ... but the interest was only from good teams (and I think the interest was perhaps limited in '95) because you could maybe tolerate the personality stuff if he was putting you over the edge towards strong contendership (or higher) you'd take the risk but getting you from poor to middling the drama and personality stuff and chemistry risk wasn't worth it.

And one could draw different lines between what's off court but the behavior carries over so a definition that meant I could agree with the statement would be a much more limited defense of the impact of his behavior overall. If you were just talking "marrying himself", WCW for off court sure (I guess ... if he's safe, on his own time). If it's partying in Vegas mid playoffs with at least part of the intent being courting attention ... less so. If one were to say rejecting defensive assignment, ignoring the team huddle are things that are technically not done on the court (I suppose kicking a camera man) then ...... you any mitigation of the impact of his behavior is limited however one wants to frame it. I think he pretty actively sabotaged the Spurs one year (and at at a much lower leverl got himself suspended during in the playoffs in the other).

[Doctor MJ]

My votes:

Induction 1: Damian Lillard
Induction 2: Cliff Hagan

I'll jump on the Damewagon. Pretty consistent all-star level impact with outstanding offense and great leadership.

I'll stick with Hagan for my other spot. I have more confidence in Hagan in a team setting than Dantley among the scorers.
I have way more confidence in Hagan in the playoffs than I do Gobert.

Between Hagan & Rodman it's harder to compare, but while Hagan had a temper, I have more faith in his psyche as someone to depend upon. I maintain that at the end he was actually a player-coach who was successful both in playing like a star and coaching his team so that others shone as well.

Nomination 1: Kyle Lowry
Nomination 2: Jayson Tatum

And I'll jump on the Lowrywagon too. Always have mixed feelings about him given his struggles playing on American NBA teams, but what he did in Canada is iconic and he showed great ability for impact there.

I'll keep shouting out Tatum who I think we shouldn't be dismissing lightly.

[Doctor MJ]

Tallies:

Induction 1:

Lillard - 6 (Samurai, iggy, trex, AEnigma, hcl, Doc)
Dantley - 2 (beast, OSNB)
Gobert - 3 (trelos, HBK, Ohayo)
Rodman - 1 (eminence)

No majority, going to vote 2 between Lillard & Gobert:

Lillard - 1 (eminence)
Gobert - 1 (beast)
neither - 1 (OSNB)

Damian Lillard 7, Rudy Gobert 4
Damian Lillard is Inducted at #75.


Nomination 1:

Sam - 2 (Samurai, beast)
Lowry - 4 (iggy, hcl, Ohayo, Doc)
Iverson - 3 (trex, AEnigma, OSNB)
Nance - 1 (trelos)
Cousy - 1 (eminence)
none- 1 (HBK)

No majority, going to vote 2 between Lowry & Iverson:

Lowry - 1 (eminence)
Iverson - 0 (none)
neither - 4 (Samurai, beast, trelos, HBK)

Kyle Lowry 5, Allen Iverson 3
Kyle Lowry is added to Nominee list.