In a draft - Nikola Jokic vs Victor Wembanyama

[AEnigma]

I think factoring injury is extremely fair. What was Bill Walton’s “floor” on 27 February 1978? What was Penny Hardaway’s “floor” on 3 November 1997? What was Grant Hill’s “floor” on 6 April 2000? What was Brandon Roy’s “floor” on 8 April 2010?

You never know what will derail a career. In this particular question, that is more relevant to the rookie, but Jokic’s career could end at any moment. I understand projecting as though that will not happen, but that is different from being “locked in” to a spot.

[Colbinii]

I think factoring injury is extremely fair. What was Bill Walton’s “floor” on 27 February 1978? What was Penny Hardaway’s “floor” on 3 November 1997? What was Grant Hill’s “floor” on 6 April 2000? What was Brandon Roy’s “floor” on 8 April 2010?

You never know what will derail a career. In this particular question, that is more relevant to the rookie, but Jokic’s career could end at any moment. I understand projecting as though that will not happen, but that is different from being “locked in” to a spot.

Right, instead of floor the word usage should be "realistic lower-bound outcome"

[70sFan]

What would you say the floor was for LeBron’s career in 2012? Jokic is already in season 8.

Probably top 20, maybe top 15 but with that in mind that Curry didn't matter then and we wouldn't have LeBron as well. Now, top 20 is more stacked than 12 years ago and 206-24 Jokic has significantly weaker career than 2004-12 James in my opinion.

Is your definition for “floor” just like where would you be all-time if you suffered a catastrophic injury the next day or something? Or did you actually think LeBron had a reasonable possibility to finish his career outside the top 12 with a reasonable career path in 2012? The project done immediately after the 2011 Finals embarrassment here had him #18 already. Like I’d say there was a better chance that LeBron finished top 10 in 2012 than that Wemby finishes top 200 and I don’t think anyone would put Wemby’s “floor” that low. Realistically it’s probably more like top 40-50 at least.

Yeah, I think it was possible that James wouldn't reach top 12 after 2012. It wasn't very likely, but it was possible. A lot of people questioned James probable longevity at that time. It's easy to say it's nonsense with hindsight, but we didn't have it back then.

Jokic so far is in his 5th prime year, maybe 6th if you are high on 2019. How can we know anything about his longevity? You have a different criteria than me, but I don't have Jokic inside top 30 for now. I expect him to finish his career well enough to fight for top 15, but it's not his floor. Again, for now I can't guarantee that he even will end up as one of top 5 players ever at his position. Like, Jokic floor isn't to have a better career than someone like Shaq or Magic. It's possible and doable for him, but it's not his floor, that's silly.

[HeartBreakKid]

Probably top 20, maybe top 15 but with that in mind that Curry didn't matter then and we wouldn't have LeBron as well. Now, top 20 is more stacked than 12 years ago and 206-24 Jokic has significantly weaker career than 2004-12 James in my opinion.

Is your definition for “floor” just like where would you be all-time if you suffered a catastrophic injury the next day or something? Or did you actually think LeBron had a reasonable possibility to finish his career outside the top 12 with a reasonable career path in 2012? The project done immediately after the 2011 Finals embarrassment here had him #18 already. Like I’d say there was a better chance that LeBron finished top 10 in 2012 than that Wemby finishes top 200 and I don’t think anyone would put Wemby’s “floor” that low. Realistically it’s probably more like top 40-50 at least.

Yeah, I think it was possible that James wouldn't reach top 12 after 2012. It wasn't very likely, but it was possible. A lot of people questioned James probable longevity at that time. It's easy to say it's nonsense with hindsight, but we didn't have it back then.

Jokic so far is in his 5th prime year, maybe 6th if you are high on 2019. How can we know anything about his longevity? You have a different criteria than me, but I don't have Jokic inside top 30 for now. I expect him to finish his career well enough to fight for top 15, but it's not his floor. Again, for now I can't guarantee that he even will end up as one of top 5 players ever at his position. Like, Jokic floor isn't to have a better career than someone like Shaq or Magic. It's possible and doable for him, but it's not his floor, that's silly.

Why would someone question his probable longevity in 2012? Shouldn't it be obvious he at least had 3-4 more good years in him at that point? He was only 27 years old in 2012.


I could see it being a question in 2015 where his stats took a hit (crazy that we are nearly a decade after that and he's still going!). But 2012? That was his best season and he was rather far from his 30s still.

[70sFan]

Is your definition for “floor” just like where would you be all-time if you suffered a catastrophic injury the next day or something? Or did you actually think LeBron had a reasonable possibility to finish his career outside the top 12 with a reasonable career path in 2012? The project done immediately after the 2011 Finals embarrassment here had him #18 already. Like I’d say there was a better chance that LeBron finished top 10 in 2012 than that Wemby finishes top 200 and I don’t think anyone would put Wemby’s “floor” that low. Realistically it’s probably more like top 40-50 at least.

Yeah, I think it was possible that James wouldn't reach top 12 after 2012. It wasn't very likely, but it was possible. A lot of people questioned James probable longevity at that time. It's easy to say it's nonsense with hindsight, but we didn't have it back then.

Jokic so far is in his 5th prime year, maybe 6th if you are high on 2019. How can we know anything about his longevity? You have a different criteria than me, but I don't have Jokic inside top 30 for now. I expect him to finish his career well enough to fight for top 15, but it's not his floor. Again, for now I can't guarantee that he even will end up as one of top 5 players ever at his position. Like, Jokic floor isn't to have a better career than someone like Shaq or Magic. It's possible and doable for him, but it's not his floor, that's silly.

Why would someone question his probable longevity in 2012? Shouldn't it be obvious he at least had 3-4 more good years in him at that point? He was only 27 years old in 2012.


I could see it being a question in 2015 where his stats took a hit (crazy that we are nearly a decade after that and he's still going!). But 2012? That was his best season and he was rather far from his 30s still.

People always questioned how his game would age, I'm quite sure you remember that.

[MMyhre]

I go Wemby.

[Clyde Frazier]

Probably not a fair question to wemby at this point given what jokic's already accomplished. If you’re guaranteed Jokic’s career plus the reasonable expectation that he’ll continue to compete for titles over several years, I don’t see how you pass that up.

[SNPA]

Wemby. He could end up being the widely agreed upon GOAT. Jokic tops out as being in the GOAT conversation. When you get to the very top level, you have to gamble on the very top level upside. Otherwise…why bother.

[Eagle4]

I'm a gambler I'll take my chances with Wemby. This is hypothetical draft is MJ/Hakeem pt 2, Jokic ending up in the lower end top 10 all time ranking and Wemby near Kareem/Bron/MJ.

[HeartBreakKid]

Wemby. He could end up being the widely agreed upon GOAT. Jokic tops out as being in the GOAT conversation. When you get to the very top level, you have to gamble on the very top level upside. Otherwise…why bother.

What...no you don't. Lol.

Jokic is ALREADY on top. The difference between being the GOAT and like the 10th best player of all time....isnt' that important when it comes to winning. You're already at a point where whether your team goes to the championship is dependent on the other playesr, not your lead one.

And saying Victor "COULD" be the goat is greatly overestimating the word "COULD". Could does not mean likely, or even 50/50.

The field is still against Victor. The chances of him being as good as Jokic, much less the consensus goat is against him not for him.


This is like saying I'd rather have a 30% chance at getting 10 million dollars than a 100% chance at getting 7 million dollars. "If you're not tryna get as rich as possible, why bother!". And I'm being nice, because Victor's chances of being the GOAT is not 30%, it is lower.


I just hope to god some of you guys aren't using this logic with actual real world assets. Ya'll would tank a company so quick thinking like this it's not even funny (or even your own personal property...).

[SNPA]

Wemby. He could end up being the widely agreed upon GOAT. Jokic tops out as being in the GOAT conversation. When you get to the very top level, you have to gamble on the very top level upside. Otherwise…why bother.

What...no you don't. Lol.

Jokic is ALREADY on top. The difference between being the GOAT and like the 10th best player of all time....isnt' that important when it comes to winning. You're already at a point where whether your team goes to the championship is dependent on the other playesr, not your lead one.

And saying Victor "COULD" be the goat is greatly overestimating the word "COULD". Could does not mean likely, or even 50/50.

The field is still against Victor. The chances of him being as good as Jokic, much less the consensus goat is against him not for him.


This is like saying I'd rather have a 30% chance at getting 10 million dollars than a 100% chance at getting 7 million dollars. "If you're not tryna get as rich as possible, why bother!". And I'm being nice, because Victor's chances of being the GOAT is not 30%, it is lower.


I just hope to god some of you guys aren't using this logic with actual real world assets. Ya'll would tank a company so quick thinking like this it's not even funny (or even your own personal property...).

This isn’t personal or business finances.

Wemby has higher upside. GOAT is absolutely on the table of realistic possible outcomes for him. I’ll take that, others can take something else.

[Woodsanity]

I think rookie LeBron and Bird in 1986 is a better comparison.

Why do you think that?

Bird had established himself as a great player, while LeBron had GOAT potential. I think this comparison is similar.

Not a bad comparison. Only difference I would say is Wemby has a lot more injury concerns.

Players that tall tend to get injured a lot more. The only 7'4 + stars we had were Sampson and Yao and both had injury issues.

[tsherkin]

Why do you think that?

Bird had established himself as a great player, while LeBron had GOAT potential. I think this comparison is similar.

Not a bad comparison. Only difference I would say is Wemby has a lot more injury concerns.

Players that tall tend to get injured a lot more. The only 7'4 + stars we had were Sampson and Yao and both had injury issues.

We will see. Differences abound: Sampson was almost 40 years ago. Physical training regimens and such have changed. Yao also had major national team commitments which overstressed his body. It's a concern, and it is in fact my primary concern with Wemby, but there's a chance things might be different for him.

[Woodsanity]

Bird had established himself as a great player, while LeBron had GOAT potential. I think this comparison is similar.

Not a bad comparison. Only difference I would say is Wemby has a lot more injury concerns.

Players that tall tend to get injured a lot more. The only 7'4 + stars we had were Sampson and Yao and both had injury issues.

We will see. Differences abound: Sampson was almost 40 years ago. Physical training regimens and such have changed. Yao also had major national team commitments which overstressed his body. It's a concern, and it is in fact my primary concern with Wemby, but there's a chance things might be different for him.

The only major difference in my eyes is that the Spurs are literally the best franchise for Wemby to land in. They are already great with load management and already had two all time great bigs.

So if anyone can handle the injury concerns its the Spurs.

[OhayoKD]

I’d take my chances with Wemby.

The defensive potential and his overall potential exceeds Jokic

This is the NBA equivalent of passing on a 500K/y job with benefit in exchange for 10 thousand lottery tickets.

If you are drafting current Jokic, yes. If you are drafting the Jokic that was drafted in real-life, no.

[tsherkin]

The only major difference in my eyes is that the Spurs are literally the best franchise for Wemby to land in. They are already great with load management and already had two all time great bigs.

So if anyone can handle the injury concerns its the Spurs.

There is that, but again, there's a large difference in physical training between 83-84 (Sampson's rookie year) and now. Now, Sampson had a cartilage tear and Yao had foot-related issues and other stuff, so we'll see how it all goes, but there's improved medicine compared to nearly half a century ago, so it's worth at least a little optimism. And yes, San Antonio's load management is definitely a factor.

[PooledSilver]

Victor might get hurt but his ceiling as the GOAT on both ends of the floor (he won’t reach it his shooting won’t get there imo) is really wild to see. Imagine a defensive player a different tier from Russell and an offensive player on the same tier as Lebron and Jordan

Still though, proven commodity